Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004871 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT TF018921 ON A SMALL GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF USD 4 MILLION TO THE ZAMBEZI WATERCOURSE COMMISSION (ZAMCOM) FOR ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P143546) November 22, 2019 Water Global Practice Africa Region Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Deborah L. Wetzel Regional Directors: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez, Simeon Kacou Ehui Practice Manager: Catherine Signe Tovey Task Team Leader: William Rex, Anna Cestari ICR Main Contributor: John Factora ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CIWA Cooperation in International Waters in Africa DANIDA Danish International Development Agency EA Environment Assessment EIA Environmental Impact Assessment GIZ German Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit JOTC Joint Operation Technical Committee LE Legal Equivalence MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund MSIOA The Zambezi River Basin Multi- Sector Investment Opportunity Analysis NP ZAMCOM Procedures for Notification of Planned Measures PDO Project Development Objectives RBO River basin organization SADC Southern African Development Community TOR Terms of reference ZAMCOM Zambezi Watercourse Commission ZAMSEC ZAMCOM Secretariat Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy and Implementation Plan for ZAMSTRAT the Zambezi River Basin ZAMWIS Zambezi Water Resources Information System ZAMWIS-DSS ZAMWIS-Decision Support System ZICP Zambezi International Cooperating Partners ZRA Zambezi River Authority ZRB Zambezi River Basin ZSP Strategic Plan for the Zambezi Watercourse TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 4 II. OUTCOME ...................................................................................................................... 8 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 12 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 14 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 17 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 19 ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 33 ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ...... 35 ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 39 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P143546 Zambezi River Basin Management Project Country Financing Instrument Southern Africa Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO To strengthen cooperative management and development within the Zambezi River Basin to facilitate sustainable, climate resilientgrowth. PDO as stated in Legal Agreement (if different from Project Paper) The objective of the project is to strengthen the recipient's role in promoting cooperative management and development within the Zambezi River Basin through institutional strengthening, improved information sharing and decision support and strategic planning Page 1 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) FINANCING FINANCE_TBL Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) Donor Financing TF-18921 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 Total 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 Total Project Cost 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness Original Closing Actual Closing 06-Mar-2015 08-May-2015 30-Jun-2018 28-Jun-2019 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 28-Jun-2018 2.28 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Implementation Schedule KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Modest RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 17-Dec-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00 02 22-Jun-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 1.02 03 07-Apr-2019 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.33 Page 2 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Colin Bruce Deborah L. Wetzel Director: Junaid Kamal Ahmad Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Practice Manager: Jonathan S. Kamkwalala Catherine Signe Tovey Task Team Leader(s): Marcus J. Wishart Anna Cestari, William Rex ICR Contributing Author: John Factora Note: Due to a glitch and systems limitations, the following errors appear in the above datasheets: • Revised EA Category incorrectly shows “Partial Assessment (B)� and should show as “Not Required (C)�. • Financing should include Counterpart Funding of US$130,000 which helped to cover the costs of consultant contracts, hence bringing total project financing to US$4.13 million, which was fully disbursed • ADM Staff at Appraisal should show as: - Country Director: Colin Bruce - Director: Junaid Kamal Ahmad - Practice Manager: Jonathan S. Kamkwalala • The “Original PDO� (To strengthen cooperative management and development within the Zambezi River Basin to facilitate sustainable, climate resilient growth) reflects the overall Program Development Objective as shown in the PAD which differs from the Project Development Objective which is in both the PAD and the Legal Agreement Page 3 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. Context at Appraisal A1. Context 1. The Zambezi watercourse is one of the most diverse and valuable natural resources in Africa. The watercourse is the fourth-largest in Africa after the Congo, Nile, and Niger rivers. The Zambezi River Basin1 (ZRB) covers a land area of approximately 1.37 million km2 and has its source in Zambia. The basin includes eight riparian countries: Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. There are 13 sub-basins, representing major tributaries and segments, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Sub-basins that make up the Zambezi River Basin 2. The watercourse is critical to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction in the region. In addition to meeting the basic needs of more than 30 million people, and sustaining a rich and diverse natural environment, the river plays a central role in the economies of the eight riparian countries through the provision of important environmental goods and services including food security and hydropower production. Characterized by strong climatic variability, the river, and its tributaries, are subject to strong temporal and spatial variations in their hydrological regimes, with a cycle of floods and droughts that have had devastating effects on the people and 1 “Zambezi River Basin� and “Zambezi Watercourse�, along with “basin-wide� and “watercourse-wide�, are used in this report interchangeably. The “Zambezi Watercourse� is a term consistent with the ZAMCOM Agreement and referring to a “system of surface and groundwaters of the Zambezi constituting, by virtue of their physical relationship, a unitary whole flowing normally into a common terminus, the Indian Ocean.� The term is perceived broadly to include the topography of the landscape and associated lands of the Zambezi River. Page 4 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) economies of the region, in particular the poorest members of the population. 3. An extensive body of literature supports the notion that cooperation over shared waters can lead to substantial benefits, including: peace dividends, the prevention of disputes through the opening of dialogue and increased potential for problem solving, regional economic growth through improved cross-border trade (with particular impacts on transport, tourism, fisheries, agriculture, mining, energy sectors) increased economies of scale (e.g., lower marginal cost of unit power production in the case of hydropower). Cooperation could also improve management and coordinated operation of water infrastructure to accommodate multipurpose uses of water, the possibility of jointly addressing common external threats (e.g., climate risks, malaria), and optimized infrastructure location to increase benefits and reduce costs. 4. Results of a multi-sectoral investment analysis2 (MSIOA) show that cooperative water development in the Zambezi watercourse could result in benefits such as: • over US$10 billion in investments and improved regional energy security by increasing firm energy production by 35,000 GWh/year and providing an additional 60,000 GWh/year in average energy;3 • enhanced regional food security through the doubling of the total irrigated area (to 775,000 ha), mainly in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, and the creation of more than 500,000 jobs in the agricultural sector; • secured water supplies for the dryland areas south of the river in Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe, as well as further afield across the region; • trade efficiencies and linkages, derived from investments in river crossings, bridges and transport networks; • increased economic resilience to water shocks, through reduced exposure to floods and droughts, which currently produce estimated losses of as much as US$1 billion a year. 5. International cooperation in the Zambezi River Basin has developed over decades, building on efforts starting in the 1940s to establish river basin mechanisms to advance the development of regional hydropower. In the 1980s, an initiative was launched in the basin to reach an “Agreement on the Establishment of the Zambezi Watercourse Commission� (ZAMCOM Agreement), with the principle objective being “to promote the equitable and reasonable utilization of the water resources of the Zambezi watercourse as well as the efficient management and sustainable development thereof�. The ZAMCOM Agreement was established on June 19, 2011 and was acceded by Zambia, signed by Malawi and ratified by all other basin states. The Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) was established in 2014. 6. For ZAMCOM to carry out its mandate, it needs to develop required tools and capacity. This project was designed to address this need and to help ZAMCOM solidify its role in promoting cooperative management and development of the Zambezi River Basin through institutional strengthening, improved information sharing and decision support, and strategic planning. A2. Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 2 World Bank. 2010. The Zambezi River Basin: A Multisector Investment Opportunities Analysis: Vol. 1-4. (English). Washington, DC: World Bank. 3 Average energy is the energy produced over the duration of the inflow sequence and is the measurement considered during the costing phase of generation planning studies. Page 5 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) 7. The Project Development Objective (PD0), in both the grant agreement and the PAD, is “to strengthen the ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development within the Zambezi River Basin through institutional strengthening, improved information sharing and decision support and strategic planning.�4 8. The theory of change, as derived from the results matrix, is presented below. Theory of Change Zambezi River Basin Management Project Activities Outputs Outcomes LT Outcomes ZAMCOM Secretariat fully functional Institutional development Guidelines for harmonization of legal A stronger, more efficient of ZAMCOM Secretariat frameworks RBO Procedures for notification Website access to data/analysis tools Sustainable development and Flow forecasting tool management of the Operationalization of the Improved information ZRB based on Zambezi Water sharing and decision cooperation Information Management support in the basin between the System (ZAMWIS) Strengthened data collection platform riparian countries Basin hydrological modeling tools Strategic Plan for the development of the ZRB Strengthen strategic Strengthened planning of planning in the ZRB development in the basin Development of policy and planning tools 9. An operational permanent ZAMCOM Secretariat (ZAMSEC), capable of providing efficient and timely support to cooperation among the eight riparian countries, and capable of planning and organizing the implementation of basin- wide development and management activities, is expected. Annex 4.B lists the major functions of ZAMSEC, as defined in Article 11 of the ZAMCOM Agreement. A3. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 10. The key objective of the project was to strengthen ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development of the Zambezi River Basin. To achieve this objective, the following outcomes were envisaged: a) Institutional strengthening through the development of tools to operationalize ZAMCOM; b) Improved information sharing and decision-making as a tool to allow ZAMCOM to provide efficient and timely support to cooperation among the basin states; 4 The PAD also notes the overall Program Development Objective (PrDO) “To strengthen cooperative management and development within the Zambezi River Basin to facilitate sustainable, climate resilient growth� which is a common objective for all CIWA financed projects within the Zambezi River Basin. The PrDO differs from the Project Development Objective (PDO) stated in both the PAD and the project legal agreement and which applies only to this project. Page 6 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) c) Improved strategic planning of basin development to ensure that ZAMCOM is capable of planning and organizing the implementation of basin-wide development and management (projects, programmes, activities, etc.). 11. The two key indicators, as defined in the PAD, were: (i) US$ financing planned for cooperative management and development of international waters; (ii) the number of people directly benefiting from improved water resources management and development in the ZRB. 12. These key indicators do not, however, assess the envisioned project outcomes as presented above as they cannot be attributed to project activities. The indicators should have been reassessed and modified prior to or during project implementation. Instead, the project’s intermediate indicators will be used as the basis for evaluating the success of the project, based on the extent to which the PDO was achieved. Annex 1.B presents these indicators and their relationship to the three outcomes of the project. A4. Components 13. The overcall project was supported by a US$4 million grant from the multi-donor trust fund Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA).5 Counterpart funding from ZAMCOM (US$130,000) was used to help cover the costs of consultant contracts. Total project financing amounted to US$4.13 million (see Annex 2 for details). In addition, one activity mentioned in Component 1 of the PAD (see Paragraph 14), namely the formulation of procedures for notification, was financed by DANIDA, Denmark’s development cooperation, in collaboration with CIWA. The procedures for notification is discussed below as a key output of the project, which reflects the strong collaboration between the Bank, CIWA, and DANIDA on this project, even though there was no formal co-financing arrangement for the project. 14. CIWA support was disbursed over three components. Implementation of the project was under the responsibility of ZAMCOM. The components, including estimated and actual total costs, were as follows: a. Component 1: Institutional Development of ZAMSEC (Estimated Cost: US$0.25 million, Actual Cost: US$ 0.25 million) was expected to provide support for a more financially sustainable and efficient basin-wide water resources institution. Specific activities included: a) supporting the operationalization of ZAMSEC and the consolidation of its core functions through the provision of technical assistance and operational support, and b) assessing the legal equivalence (LE) of instruments governing the development and management of water resources at the national and transboundary levels in the Zambezi River Basin and formulating guidelines for harmonization of legal frameworks and procedures for notification. b. Component 2: Development of the Zambezi Water Information Management System and Decision Support Systems (ZAMWIS-DSS) (Estimated Cost: US$ 1.5 million, Actual Cost: US$ 1.29 million) supported the operationalization of the ZAMWIS as part of a multi-donor initiative to provide a foundation for more effective information sharing and decision support systems within the Zambezi River Basin. Specific 5 The CIWA program assists riparian governments in Sub-Saharan Africa in unlocking the potential for sustainable, climate- resilient growth by addressing constraints to cooperative water resources management and development. The multi-donor trust fund is managed by the World Bank and has received contributions from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, United Kingdom, and the European Union. Page 7 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) activities included: a) strengthening the basin-wide data collection platforms and access to spatial information; b) developing the integration and compatibility of basin hydrological models with user- adapted web-based interfaces; c) enhancing the ZAMCOM website to improve accessibility and collaboration related to data and analysis; d) facilitating the development and implementation of flow forecasting and early warning tools. c. Component 3: Strengthening strategic planning in the ZRB (Estimated Cost: US$2.05 million, Actual Cost: US$ 2.6 million) supported development of the Zambezi Strategic Plan (ZSP) for the efficient management and sustainable development of the basin. Specific activities included: a) support for the development of the strategic plan, including basin wide planning tools and processes for the identification, categorization and prioritization of projects and programmes; and b) development of policy and planning tools to promote, support and coordinate the efficient management, sustainable development, and reasonable and equitable utilisation of the water resources of the Zambezi River Basin. B. Significant Changes during Implementation 15. There were no revisions to the PDO, key outcome targets, indicators or components during implementation, however, restructuring took place in June 2018 to give the project an additional year of implementation. The additional time was needed to take into account delays of approximately 24 months at the beginning of the project resulting from setbacks in formalizing the establishment of ZAMCOM and ZAMSEC. Specifically, the one-year extension allowed for the completion of the strategic plan and the needed consultations among member states. The strategic plan was a top priority for the project (in terms of the amount of funding). At the time of the restructuring request, Component (1) had been completed and Component (2) was well advanced with only training left to wrap up. This restructuring had no effect on outcomes and their targets. 16. Toward the end of the project, it was observed that the environmental assessment (EA) category for the project was erroneously assessed as “B- Partial Assessment�. A request to change this resulted in the project eventually being categorized as “C�. Details regarding the change in EA category are found in Section IV – Environmental, Social and Fiduciary Compliance. This change had no effect on outcomes and their targets. II. OUTCOME A. Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 17. The PDO consisted of three outcomes: to strengthen ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development of the Zambezi River Basin through (1) institutional strengthening, (2) improved information sharing and decision-making, and (3) improved strategic planning of basin development. 18. Overall achievements of the project were: a) the strengthening of ZAMSEC from a fledgling interim entity to a fully functioning permanent secretariat with able to oversee the implementation of the strategic plan and associated activities; b) the provision of a set of tools and procedures to allow ZAMSEC the capabilities required to plan and organize the implementation of basin-wide cooperative development and management activities (achievement of Page 8 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Indicator 1.8 in Annex 1.B). These tools and procedures will need to be combined, going forward, to create a modified notification process for negotiating policy and strategy and investment, in the basin, on a real-time basis. 19. All project tasks were completed, and the project was brought to a close on June 28, 2019. ZAMCOM is now equipped with a basin plan, an information and decision support system, and policy options on how to operationalize and advance its transboundary water resources development and management agenda. The Bank has recommended that, going forward, ZAMCOM restructure its organizational architecture to take on an investment planning and preparation role. The Bank team also worked with the client to design the next phase of ZAMCOM support: the integration of the four project deliverables into one process to support cooperative management and development of the Zambezi River Basin. Key to this is the revision and re-development of the NP as the administrative framework that will address both the soft and hard elements of the cooperative water resources management/development approach. This will include, for instance, the linking of the ZAMWIS-DSS to the NP to ensure that notifications are supported by updated data and hydrological modelling results. 20. The widespread acceptance among basin states of a general management approach, as defined in and supported by project outputs, is the first indicator of cooperation among the basin states, evidenced by the approval of all project outputs by ZAMCOM’s Council of Ministers. 21. This section highlights the specific achievements of the project outcomes and demonstrated connections between the project activities and these achievements. Annex 4.A presents a detailed list of all deliverables for each outcome and their current/potential use in promoting cooperative management and development of the Zambezi River Basin. It is noted that the project deliverables provide development and management frameworks to aid ZAMCOM in achieving the project objective. However, time is required to monitor the changes in relationships between member states, with respect to cooperative basin development, once the whole system (ZAMWIS-DSS, NP, strategic plan, etc.) is fully operationalized, as described in paragraph 19. 22. PDO outcome 1: to strengthen ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development of the ZRB through institutional strengthening. Rating: High 23. Through activities completed in Component 1 (as discussed below and presented in the Theory of Change diagram in Paragraph 7), Intermediate Indicators (presented in Annex 1.B) were achieved, which has helped to strengthen the capacity of ZAMCOM to effectively manage the cooperative development and management of basin resources: • ZAMSEC became a fully functioning permanent secretariat and its core functions were solidified (Ind. 1.1); • ZAMCOM, as an institution, became financially stronger through the life of the project, during which time the member states upheld the agreement to increase annual contributions to ZAMCOM by US$10,000. The annual contribution target was agreed to increase to US$100,000 starting in 2020 (Ind. 1.2); • Cooperation in the development of basin infrastructure increased by way of the recent application of the NP by the Republic of Malawi. Preliminary and technical notifications were completed for the Mangochi Water Supply and Sanitation Project and the Karonga Town Water Supply Project and preliminary notifications were completed for the Shire Valley Irrigation Project and the Nkhata Bay Town Water Supply and Sanitation Project (Ind. 1.3); • The visibility of the institution increased through the signing of MOUs with various partners to support ZAMCOM in meeting its objectives (Ind. 1.4); the production of effective strategic communications products Page 9 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) such as videos, newsletters, etc. (Ind. 1.5); and the creation of technical briefs, case studies, fact sheets, policy briefs, etc. (Ind. 1.7). 24. Guidelines for the harmonization of legal frameworks were completed (Ind. 1.6) and are comprised of seven volumes (see Annex 4.A for details). These assess national water laws and policies against indicators for good water management practices to determine how member states currently approach these practices. A process for harmonizing national water laws across the Zambezi River Basin are then presented. These guidelines provide ZAMCOM with the foundation upon which other tools to support joint planning, collaborative management, and joint risk management of the basin are based. The harmonization of water laws and policies promotes a common approach to, and vision of, water resources development and management. For example, an agreed-to definition of water security, within the context of the basin, ensures that all member states are working toward the same goal; the harmonizing of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requirements for all basin states, or at least the establishment of specific provisions to be followed within the relevant EIA regulations of each basin states ensures collaborative management of the sustainability of the basin resources; and a basis for costing and regulating shared benefits provides a useful negotiation mechanism in terms of mitigating harm in relation to planned basin developments. 25. Activities to actually harmonize water laws and policies across the Zambezi River Basin, according to the options and priority clusters defined in the guidelines, have been included in ZAMCOM’s 2019-2022 work plan. 26. PDO outcome 2: to strengthen ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development of the ZRB through improved information sharing and decision-making. Rating: High 27. Outcomes of Component 2 provide ZAMCOM with a foundation for more effective data and information sharing (Ind. 2.1) to support planning of the river basin development and, in particular, the capability to manage extreme events (Ind. 2.2). Deliverables include (see Annex 4.A for details): • An updated and refined database and tools including improved data exchange functionality between ZAMSEC and the riparian states; improved functionality of data exchange between ZAMWIS and Hydstra for time- series data management; improvements to the download and processing system for remote sensing data; inclusion of data from the Southern African Development Community`s (SADC) HYCOS database in ZAMWIS; improved search functionality for knowledge products; and report generation. • A ZAMWIS Planning Tool which allows riparian states to evaluate and assess the basin-wide implications of national water resources development projects and allows ZAMCOM to assess transboundary implications of the overall development plan for the basin. • The ZAMWIS Flow Forecasting Tool which produces regular forecasts of water flow in the Zambezi River on a medium-term time scale (1-3 months). • Documentation for all developed tools, training material, and a human resources and financial plan to ensure the sustainability of the ZAMWIS-DSS. 28. The collection of basin-wide data and information is extremely valuable, not only for use in decision-making, through the use of collected data and information to support the notification process and required EIAs, but also to encourage cooperation among the member states through data sharing and to increase the visibility of ZAMCOM through the development of marketing materials, such as maps and reports, that can be used for communications purposes. The Flow Forecasting Tool can be used to predict drought and flood conditions and enable the member states to react more quickly with respect to prevention and remediation. ZAMCOM can also use the tool for the sustainability of the Page 10 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) organization through the sale of information to organizations and companies that rely on water flow information. For example, tourism companies would have an interest in river flow information and the dam operators can rely on this tool to plan for operations. 29. The ZAMWIS-DSS is currently being used by the member states: • To share data on a regular basis: The member states have been trained according to the Rules and Procedures for Data Sharing and updating of data in the ZAMWIS takes place on a regular basis; • To update and modify existing basin plans: The member states are using the DSS to investigate the impact of water resources development projects on the entire watercourse in order to advise national decision-makers on the investments and trade-offs that could be implemented to ensure minor disturbances to basin ecosystems; • For national planning and development of water resources: Mozambique and Zambia have used the planning tool for national planning and development of their water resources as a pilot project. There are now plans to escalate this to other catchments across the riparian states to support the planning and development process, from design to feasibility; • For notification of planned measures: The procedure for notification on potential impact of planned infrastructure includes an assessment of whether or not there will be adverse effects on the watercourse or other member states. This requires a detailed technical evaluation and documentation of possible hydrological, environmental, social and economic consequences. In this respect, there are plans for Botswana to use the ZAMWIS-DSS to aid in the technical evaluation of the planned water transfer from the Zambezi River to the Chobe River; • For report generation: The hydrological yearbook for the Zambezi River, to be published by the end of 2019, was developed using data/information, including maps, charts, etc., from the ZAMWIS-DSS. 30. Sustainability of the ZAMWIS-DSS system has been promoted through the case studies developed as part of the outputs, and the use of these, during the project, in the multiple training and workshops for representatives of the member states who work directly with the hydrologic and economic data and information. These included the water and energy ministries in each country, ZRA, dam operators, etc. A development plan for financing and human resources was delivered (including a long-term capacity building strategy) to ensure that the ZAMWIS-DSS data and information system will be properly updated, managed, and funded over the long term. 31. PDO outcome 3: to strengthen ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development of the ZRB through improved strategic planning of basin development. Rating: Substantial. 32. Component 3 of the project resulted in the production of a strategic plan for development of the Zambezi River Basin (Ind. 3.1 in Annex 1.B). The strategic plan brings together the results of a number of key programs and activities, undertaken in the Zambezi basin in recent years, including the CIWA funded 2010 Zambezi River Basin Multi-Sector Investments Opportunity Analysis (MSIOA) and the 2016 Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin (ZAMSTRAT). 33. The set of activities linked to the strategic plan produced seven documents (D1-D7) and four thematic papers. All of these, together, make up the Strategic Plan for the Zambezi Watercourse and include: (1) an analysis of the current situation in the Zambezi basin (D1 & D2); (2) the determination of future development options (D3, D4 and thematic papers); and (3) the preparation and presentation of the strategic plan (D5 to D7). Based on the analysis of the current situation and decisions around future development scenarios for climate change and environmental flow, Page 11 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) a “preferred� development pathway was determined as: “Maximize the economic benefits of water development in the Zambezi River Basin, subject to the constraints of ensuring the maintenance of moderate environmental flows and provision of flood protection.� Details on all deliverables for this component are found in Annex 4.A. 34. Overall, the strategic plan presents the components of a short-term (2018-2027) to medium-term (2028-2040) infrastructure investment plan, and its institutional, financing and implementation requirements, based on sound analytical input. Going forward, the plan is ZAMCOM’s principle instrument for the promotion of regional integration and cooperation between the riparian states, and will allow it to perform its role in promoting and supporting sustainable development and efficient management of the Zambezi River Basin for the equitable benefit of all the people of the basin, as defined in the ZAMCOM Agreement. In particular, the strategic plan promotes and facilitates (1) regional co-operation and good neighbourliness; (2) development and utilisation of the resources of the Zambezi Watercourse for equitable, sustainable and ecological economic growth and prosperity; (3) climate resilient infrastructure development; (4) public access to sufficient and safe water supplies, and related essential services, for basic needs and livelihoods; and (4) capital mobilisation and investment finance. 35. The strategic plan was fully completed by the end of the project, having been approved by the Council of Ministers in February 2019. Implementation of the plan is expected to start in January 2020. ZAMCOM is currently working on mobilizing resources for this purpose and developing guidelines for environmental flows in the basin, which is one of the criteria upon which the success of the plan will be measured. 36. A shortcoming of the strategic plan is that it is infrastructure-centric and does not include the strategic prioritization of recommended activities from work produced in Components 1 and 2. The outcomes of the legal equivalence (LE) work (Component 1), i.e., the harmonization of policy options, will need to be analyzed to strategically prioritize their development. The same can be said for the recommended activities resulting from the NP and its links to data/information and decision support in Component 2. The sustainability of the strategic plan and Outcome 3, in general, could be in jeopardy without, for instance, policy agreements on the sharing of benefits from infrastructure development. As well, the lack of integration of the NP with the available functionality provided by the ZAMWIS-DSS could result in less than adequate technical analysis of infrastructure projects. This shortcoming was a direct result of the major weakness of this project, which was not having all elements of the project developed through one interconnected process to produce one interconnected output. This is further discussed in Paragraph 51. B. Overall Outcome Rating 38. The overall outcome rating for the project is Satisfactory, based on full achievements of the first two outcomes and substantial achievement of the last outcome. The project has delivered the expected outcomes, as reflected in the progress on intermediate indicators used to assess the success of the project and leaves a strengthened ZAMCOM with the tools required to promote and support the cooperative development and management of the Zambezi River Basin. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. Key Factors During Preparation 37. The key risk at project design was associated with the newly established ZAMSEC and its capacity to carry out project activities, project design, and donor coordination and to ensure sustainability of the institution. In order to mitigate Page 12 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) capacity related risks, a comprehensive set of activities were planned to support the development of ZAMSEC through technical assistance and operational support. Any risk related to donor coordination was mitigated through close coordination with development partners during the design of the project, to ensure the complementarity of activities under the various ICP-financed programs. B. Key Factors During Implementation 38. Realistic objectives: The objectives were realistic, however, there are indications that they were open to interpretation by the client and consultants, which did not necessarily coincide with the vision of the Bank. This led to the consultants working individually on activities, rather than as a team to deliver a cohesive set of documents with a singular vision. In some cases, the emphasis of the outputs was more on sovereignty issues of the individual nations rather than on the transboundary discourse. This is evident, particularly, in the strategic plan development with a concentration on national projects rather than the development of joint infrastructure. The Bank has discussed the importance of the transboundary vision, with the client, and provided documents/presentations/workshops to ensure client focus and vision beyond the end of the project. 39. Readiness for implementation: There are indications that the basin countries were not properly prepared to support the transboundary discourse, particularly with respect to the development of the strategic plan. This became more apparent as implementation progressed. For example, there was reluctance on the part of some states to share certain river basin data, such as water permit information, through the ZAMWIS database. As mentioned above, there is also a focus on national plans and projects in the strategic plan, rather than the development of joint infrastructure. The Bank is helping the client to design a follow-on program that will address this issue as part of the planning process, going forward. Also, as part of this discourse, there will be a need to promote the strategic plan and the ZAMWIS-DSS in other water use sectors to ensure buy-in for multi-purpose infrastructure and the sharing of benefits. 40. Coordination and engagement. There was a slight lack of coordination and engagement, by the client, for the period during which the organization was without an Executive Secretary (ES). During this time, the project team was required to act as ES (round-robin) in order to ensure that implementation of the project moved forward. However, these acting ESs were not in a position to approve payments to the consultants and were stretched beyond the requirements of the project. The Bank team worked with the client to revise the system for payments to ensure that this was not an influencing issue in the project. 41. Commitment and leadership. There was no lack of commitment from the project team who, overall, did a commendable job in implementing the project. However, a lack of leadership with respect to the handling of the consultants for Component 3, was observed. The client’s need for Bank support was not relayed until well into the last year of implementation, and, as a result, the Bank was unable to provide timely assistance. This led to: a. A lack of communication between all project consultants that led to inconsistent assumptions about the project requirements and, as a result, inconsistent outputs. b. Contract management issues with respect to the strategic plan consultant, including the use of students instead of experts to work on the project and the consultant not spending enough time in the country to work on activities and iron out issues. c. Poorly presented initial outputs for the ZSP, which led to the client spending an unreasonable amount of time working on the draft documents rather than focusing on the technical quality. The documents went though many versions prior to being received by the Bank, and were already in advanced stages, which made the possibility of considering technical comments from the Bank sometimes difficult, as these were considered to Page 13 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) have come late in the project. Had the client gone back to the consultant and insisted that they have someone edit the documents on their side, prior to submission, the Bank may have received the documents earlier in the implementation period. d. Differences between the requirements, as defined in the terms of reference (TOR) and what was delivered, which was a result of the client not making continual reference to the TOR after implementation had started. If the TOR is not adequate, the client should have made changes and renegotiated conditions with the consultant. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. Environmental, Social and Fiduciary Compliance 42. Environmental and social issues: The project was mistakenly classified as “EA Category B- Partial Assessment� during preparation and remained as such for most of its implementation. In fact, there were no significant environmental and social issues given the nature of the TA activities pursued under the project. In March 2019, a request was made to the OPCS team to change the environmental category from B to C (No Assessment).6 In May 2019, the EA Category was changed to C. Nevertheless, environmental issues were assessed and discussed as part of the strategic plan, as well as in the LE work. Recommendations for the establishment of guidelines for the EIA and environmental operating rules, including environmental flows and in-stream monitoring for existing and future development in the basin, were made in the strategic plan. These guidelines will be an integral part of the notification process, which will be the basis of development in the basin. 43. The project originally had O.P. 7.50 “Projects in International Waterways� listed as the only safeguard policy triggered. It was, however, indicated in the PAD that because the implementation was being coordinated by the ZAMSEC, which represents the regional organization established under the ZAMCOM Agreement, the project was exempt from the notification requirement. In reality, this project should never have triggered O.P. 7.50 since the project did not support the types of activities covered under this safeguard policy, e.g., “hydroelectric, irrigation, flood control, navigation, drainage, water and sewerage, industrial, and similar projects that involve the use or potential pollution of international waterways; and detailed design and engineering studies of projects under (a) above, including those to be carried out by the Bank as executing agency or in any other capacity.� 44. Fiduciary issues: At the beginning of the project, there were delays in procurement, due to delays in the establishment of ZAMSEC. Once this was done, procurement proceeded without incident. 45. The adequacies of both the financial management (FM) arrangements and the risk rating of the project, from a financial management standpoint, were assessed at the beginning of the project and adopted without requiring supporting or enhancement measures. 46. Toward the end of the project, a shortfall of US$ 5,076.10 related to currency conversion for the contract in euros, for the DSS consultant, was indicated in the financial balance for the project (see Annex 2). This was an outstanding obligation that ZAMCOM was liable for. 47. On June 30, 2018, the term of the ES ended, however, engagement of a new ES was delayed until January 2019, and procedural formalities were not concluded until well into February 2019. This led to delays in disbursements, over 6 Incident INC000020012249: Request to change EA Category for Zambezi River Basin Management Project P143546 Page 14 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) the period of July 2018 to March 2019, for consultant contracts, as the ES was required to sign and clear payments, as per direct payment procedures facilitated by the Bank. During this time, outstanding requests for payment became overdue and risked the addition of penalties. The new ES was added to the system and outstanding payments were cleared in March 2019. B. Bank Performance Quality at Entry 48. The technical and economic work carried out and presented in previous Bank analytical work, such as the MSIOA, ensured a solid foundation for this project. The project was conceived as part of a bigger program of support to the riparian states and regional bodies in the Zambezi River Basin by the Bank managed CIWA MDTF. The program envisaged a series of projects aimed at promoting the equitable and reasonable utilization of the water resources as well as the efficient management and sustainable development thereof. 49. The three main project outputs from Components 1 and 2 (LE, NP, DSS) were expected to be the basis upon which the strategic plan was built. This was not clear in the PAD. The three components are presented as standalone activities with little, or no, evident connection. Emphasis and more details on the connections between the component outputs would have indicated that one consultancy should be hired to implement the three components, thereby ensuring consistency. For example: in the outcome from the LE work, there is a clear indication that there are known water scarcity issues in some sub-basins, even if there does not appear to be an issue basin-wide. The LE outputs also indicates the existence of water quality issues that need to be assessed in terms of suitability for water allocation to certain uses. The strategic plan starts with the assumption that there is enough water in the basin as a whole. As a result, the strategic plan analysis did not attempt to analyze the scarcity issue or strategize development in sub-basins that are water scarce. Likewise, tools for hydrologic and hydro-economic assessment of basin development were not consistent between the strategic plan and the DSS. Quality of Supervision 50. The World Bank provided on-going implementation support on project management and fiduciary issues during the project implementation. There was a change in the key leadership of the project in 2018, however, the new TTL was already closely involved in the management of the project, as CO-TTL, and this change had no effect on project implementation. 51. The Bank conducted implementation missions to provide technical advice and quality control, and to ensure compliance with World Bank requirements. The Bank’s multidisciplinary team provided expertise in financial management, procurement, institutional development and water resources, complemented by just-in-time technical expertise. The number of missions, however, were limited, although the TLL was in regular contact with ZAMCOM, providing support on a regular basis. However, some expertise, particularly data/information/DSS expertise, was not provided until later in the project life-cycle, which led to important comments on project outputs being furnished late in project implementation. In general, this had little effect on outputs for the ZAMWIS-DSS component, as the consultant was able to incorporate most recommendations. This delay in the timely commenting of documents did, however, have some repercussions on the output of the ZSP. 52. It is agreed that there were general delays in the timely commenting of documents in the initial stages of the project, by the Bank. However, as discussed in Section III, Part B (Key Factors during Implementation), by the time the Page 15 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) draft documents were obtained by the Bank, they were already advanced versions and Bank comments were such that there was a significant amount of work that would have had to be done to address these, particularly for the ZSP. 53. As noted above, one area of weakness in the design of the project was the choice of outcome indicators. The PAD listed two outcome indicators: 1. US$ financing planned for cooperative management and development of international waters (supported by CIWA); and 2. Number of people directly benefitting from improved water resources management and development) that had very little direct relation to project outputs. Moreover, the two indicators did not reflect the project’s stated development objective. The Bank team should have undertaken a restructuring of the results framework by replacing the two outcome indicators with some of the intermediate indicators that were more reflective of the PDO. 54. In light of the issues discussed above, Bank Performance is rated Moderately Satisfactory. C. Risk to Development Outcomes 55. During the November 2018 mission, the Bank discussed, with the client, the importance of having an ES always on board to enable continuity of the work and vision, which is important for the sustainability of the project outcomes and ZAMCOM itself. If each new ES has a new vision, the sustainability of the work that has already been done and put in place will be affected. 56. The hiring of 3 separate consultancies, instead of one, as discussed in the previous section, led to the project being developed as 3 separate outputs, rather than 3 outputs that need to be cohesive to give the overall picture of development/management of the basin. These outputs now need to be combined to support the operationalization of the functioning of ZAMCOM. Without this, ZAMCOM risks to continue functioning in a “project centric� manner and the outputs developed will remain unused. 57. There is a need to have more emphasis on the ownership of the ZSP, by all riparian countries, as part of the outcome of the activity. As it was, the TOR envisaged only a document as the output. Going forward, this document, and its vision, needs to be owned by all member states of ZAMCOM. During implementation, it was found that there were different expectations between the Bank (transboundary vision) and the ministers of the member states (vision of sovereignty). In fact, the online tool created as part of the strategic plan (which is an infrastructure inventory that is updatable by the member states) actually encourages sovereignty and does not advance the transboundary discourse. The overall strategy of the strategic plan was politically influenced in that the projects were country-specific and focused to varying degree on sovereignty issues. The assumptions made by the consultant (to include all infrastructure national plans, in the analysis) also supported the sovereignty agenda. This reflects on the readiness of the basin countries to drive the transboundary discourse, which is still in question, and which will need to be emphasized as part of the planning process, going forward. There will also be a need to include other water use sectors in the discourse. 58. Issues in water resources management were not adequately covered in the project, specifically the management of natural resources conditions. The management/development of the basin should, in fact, be based on the vision of desired conditions of natural resources in the basin and should be measurable. Without this, along with a measure of baseline conditions, it is difficult to determine the impact of any development plan. 59. Collaboration between ZAMCOM and other river basin organizations (RBOs), such as the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) and Joint Operation Technical Committee (JOTC), needs to be improved. This is currently not the case, despite Page 16 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) there being common objectives among institutions with respect to data sharing and analysis tools. A strengthened ZAMCOM appears to come across as a risk to the power and autonomy of existing RBOs. The sustainability of the ZAMWISS-DSS and the flow forecasting tool, can easily be achieved with the strong participation of ZRA and other RBOs. Proposals, to such end, are in place. V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 60. The project has delivered positive results, mainly in the form of the elements that will now need to be linked, going forward. The following are some lessons for future Bank assistance. 61. Project design. In projects in which the outputs of each component feed into one another, as was the case in this project, it would be better to hire one consultancy for all components. This will solve any problems with coordination between consultants and ensure a single vision throughout the project. There was also some indication that there was not enough time and/or budget for adequate consultation with member states. One consultancy may have been able to arrange these consultations more efficiently, but an awareness of the implications of these types of consultations needs to be built into the project design. 62. Barriers to cooperation. As noted above, there were indications that basin countries were not properly prepared to support the transboundary discourse. Indeed, the barriers to international cooperation on river basins worldwide have been documented in a World Bank report, with the main reasons having to do with perceptions of risk (including sovereignty and access).7 Simply put, if a country cannot find a way to compensate for or control risk, the report says, it may choose not to cooperate. One clear lesson learned is the need to address perceived risks in a way that addresses the subject country’s particular concerns. In addition, international cooperation requires a long- term commitment. Both are being taken on board as the World Bank helps ZAMCOM and/or member states design a next phase of support for regional integration. 63. Technical input. This project suffered from a lack of technical input, to some extent, during project supervision. Strong support existed for institutional and general water management aspects, but technical support for data management and DSS was not included until the last year of implementation, by which time Component 2 was more or less completed. For the set of activities related to the strategic plan, this resulted in the original vision of the project being modified by the consultant, as client technical capacity was just being developed. A full team of technical experts should be available, from project design through completion, for timely input to a project. 64. Project supervision. Improved client and Bank relations, at the top executive levels, toward the end of this project, was an important element for addressing a normally challenging political context. This occurred once the position of the ES was filled in January 2019 and gave way to a new dynamic in the policy and working environment. Client and Bank relations were good through the life of the project, however, more regular missions with a full technical team would have been beneficial for client support, particularly with respect to client/consultant relations. 65. Project implementation. During the life of the project, the TORs upon which the activities are based, need to be referred to, continually. Differences between the requirements, as defined in the terms of reference (TOR), and what was delivered in this project, was a result of the client not making continual reference to the TOR after implementation 7World Bank. 2012. Reaching Across the Waters: Facing the Risks of Cooperation in International Waters (English). Washington, DC. World Bank. Page 17 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) had started. If a TOR is not adequate, the client should make changes and renegotiate conditions with the consultant. . Page 18 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: The objective of the project is to strengthen the recipient's role in promoting cooperative management and development within the Zambezi River Basin through institutional strengthening, improved info Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion US$ financing planned for Text 0 Strategic Plan Strategic Plan cooperative management and approved by Council approved by Council development of international identifying prioritized identifying priority waters (supported by CIWA) investments investments - The final draft strategic plan report was presented to the Joint project steering committee for review and endorsement in January 2019. The Strategic Plan was adopted by the Council of Ministers in February 2019 . Page 19 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) 08-May-2015 08-May-2015 11-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): This outcome indicator could not be measured as it does not directly relate to project activities. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Number of people directly Number 0.00 35000000.00 35000000.00 benefitting from improved water resources management 08-May-2015 08-May-2015 11-Feb-2019 and development Comments (achievements against targets): This indicator could not be measured as this outcome is not directly attributable to the project. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Component 1. Institutional Development of ZAMSEC Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Status of institution to carry Text Agreement ratified by Permanent ZAMCOM Permanent ZAMCOM out its mandated functions 6 member states. Secretariat legally Secretariat able to ZAMCOM Secretariat established reflecting carry out functions Page 20 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) (IZS) operates with functions in ZAMCOM reflected in ZAMCOM support of SADC- Agreement. - Decision Agreement. - Decision Water Division on Zimbabwe as the on Zimbabwe as the host country for the host country for the Secretariat was Secretariat was reached in 2014. reached in 2014. ZAMCOM is now a ZAMCOM is a legal legally established corporate entity as per body corporate entity gazette notice of as per gazette notice 2015. of 2015. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion % contribution by Member Text % Actual contributions At least 80% of costs Minimum functionality States to the cost of minimum divided by actual costs covered defined, costed and functionality - Total current endorsed by the contributions by Council of Ministers member states stands with a request to at 75% of actual costs. under-take further sustainability assessments. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Page 21 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Quality of delivery of key Text No basin wide plan Zambezi Strategic Plan Zambezi Strategic Plan functions: basin wide planning, exists endorsed by ZAMCOM endorsed by ZAMCOM prior notification, national - The final draft confidence building and strategic plan report negotiation skills was presented to the Joint project steering committee for review and endorsement in January 2019. The final report expected before the end of June 2019. The Strategic Plan was approved by the Council of Ministers in February, 2019. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Page 22 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Legal frameworks for Text Not all national Guidelines for Guidelines for transboundary water legislation reflects harmonization - harmonization - Legal management and development transboundary Complete equivalence studies harmonized considerations are complete. Final options paper was adopted in November 2018. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Analytical capacity for Text No analytical capacity Complete series of Complete series of identification and assessment at ZAMCOM technical briefs. - technical briefs. - of basin wide opportunities Secretariat Cases studies Cases studies and risks completed as completed as prepared under the prepared under the strategic planning and strategic planning and decision supports decision supports systems development systems development processes. (November processes. (November 2018) + Fact Sheets 2018) + Fact Sheets and Policy Briefs and Policy Briefs prepared internally by prepared internally by ZAMCOM (December ZAMCOM (December 2018). 2018). Page 23 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Level of effectiveness of Text No prior notification At least 1 request At least one request partnerships and clarity of facilitated facilitated facilitated - roles across key institutions in Notification rules and the basin procedures were adopted by Council of Ministers in February 2017. Based on the new procedures, the Republic of Malawi submitted preliminary and technical notifications of the Shire Valley Irrigation Project, the Mango-chi Water Supply and Sanitation Project, the Karonga Town Water Supply Project and the Nkhata Bay Town Water Supply and Sanita-tion Projects. A no- objection is Page 24 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) expected in February 2019. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Extent of academic Text Limited partnerships Initiation of Initiation of partnerships established to internships Internships - MOUs furher the knowledge base have been signed with SARDC, WWF and Waternet to help ZAMCOM meet its objectives. Internship approach not effected to date. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Page 25 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Effectiveness of strategic Text Non targeted Targeted Targeted communications on the communication communication communication benefits of cooperation products (e.g. link products (e.g. link technical briefs) technical briefs) - A ZAMCOM Communication Strategy is in place and approved by the Council of Ministers. Targets have been identified and to date, various knowledge products have been produced including: Flyers, Brochures, Newsletters, Policy Briefs and Stand up banners, Presentations at various forum. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Component 2. Development of the Zambezi Water Information Management System and Decision Support Systems Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Page 26 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Extent of data sharing for basin Text Lack of clarity of roles Roles clarified through Roles clarified through wide planning and potential conflict the adoption of data the adoption of data sharing protocol - sharing protocol - Rules and Procedures Rules and Procedures for Data Sharing have for Data Sharing have been concluded and been concluded and adopted by ZAMCOM adopted by ZAMCOM Council on the 25th Council on the 25th February 2016 and February 2016 and came into force on the came into force on the 26th March 2016. The 26th March 2016. The ZAMWIS database is ZAMWIS database is operational.. operational. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 11-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Extent of extreme event Text ZAMWIS roadmap Complete design of Complete design of management capability adopted system - Decision system - Decision Support System design Support System design and development has and development has been completed in been completed in November 2018. November 2018. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Page 27 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Quality of delivery of key Text No basin wide plan Zambezi Strategic Plan Zambezi Strategic Plan functions: basin wide planning, exists endorsed by ZAMCOM endorsed by ZAMCOM prior notification, national - The final draft confidence building and strategic plan report negotiation skills was presented to the Joint project steering committee for review and endorsement in January 2019. The final report expected before the end of June 2019. The Strategic Plan was approved by the Council of Ministers in February, 2019. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Component: Component 3. Strengthening Strategic Planning in the ZRB Page 28 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Quality of delivery of key Text No basin wide plan Zambezi Strategic Plan Zambezi Strategic Plan functions: basin wide planning, exists endorsed by ZAMCOM endorsed by ZAMCOM prior notification, national - The final draft confidence building and strategic plan report negotiation skills was presented to the Joint project steering committee for review and endorsement in January 2019. The final report expected before the end of June 2019. The Strategic Plan was approved by the Council of Ministers in February, 2019. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Common investment planning Text No coordinated Basin-wide scenario Basin-wide scenario framework planning framework in planning - planning -The final place draft strategic plan Page 29 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) report was presented to the Joint project steering committee for review and endorsement in January 2019. The final report expected before the end of June 2019. The Strategic Plan was approved by the Council of Ministers in February, 2019. 08-May-2015 28-Jun-2019 12-Feb-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 30 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) B. ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PDO Objective/Outcome 1: To strengthen the ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development within the Zambezi River Basin through institutional strengthening. (Component 1) Ind. 1.1 Status of institution to carry out its mandated functions Ind. 1.2 % contribution by member states to the cost of minimum functionality Ind. 1.3 Level of effectiveness of partnerships and clarity of roles across key institutions in the basin Ind. 1.4 Extent of academic partnerships established to further the knowledge base Ind. 1.5 Effectiveness of strategic communications on the benefits of Result indicators cooperation Ind. 1.6 Legal frameworks for transboundary water management and development harmonized Ind. 1.7 Analytical capacity for identification and assessment of basin-wide opportunities and risks Ind. 1.8 8Quality of delivery of key functions: basin wide planning, prior notification, national confidence building and negotiation skills K.1.1 establishment of ZAMSEC Key Outputs by Component K.1.2 guidelines for harmonization of legal framework formulated (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) K.1.3 notification procedure developed 8This result indictor appears in all of the outcomes. This indicator measures the quality of the outputs to support the key functions of ZAMCOM. The totality of the outputs are produced over all of the components. Page 31 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Objective/Outcome 2: To strengthen the ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development within the Zambezi River Basin through improved information sharing and decision support. (Component 2) Ind. 2.1 Extent of data sharing for basin wide planning Ind. 2.2 Extent of extreme event management capability Result Indicators Ind. 2.3 Quality of delivery of key functions: basin wide planning, prior notification, national confidence building and negotiation skills K.2.1 basin-wide data collection platforms and accessible spatial information strengthened Key Outputs by Component K.2.2 integrated basin hydrological models and user-adapted web- (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) based interfaces K.2.3 flow forecasting and early warning tools develop K.2.4 basin planning tool developed Objective/Outcome 3: To strengthen the ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development within the Zambezi River Basin through strategic planning. (Component 3) Ind. 3.1 Common investment planning framework Ind. 3.2 Quality of delivery of key functions: basin wide planning, Results Indicators prior notification, national confidence building and negotiation skills Key Outputs by Component K.3.1 Strategic Plan developed (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 3) Page 32 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) . ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Component Amount at Approval1 Actual at Project2 Percentage of (US$, millions) Closing (US$, millions) Approval (%) Institutional .25 .25 100 Development of the ZAMCOM Secretariat Zambezi Water 1.5 1.29 86 Information Management System and Decision Support Systems Strengthening 2.05 2.6 127 strategic planning in the Zambezi River Basin TOTAL 3.8 4.14 100 (1) Estimated costs are taken from the procurement plan, as this information was not available in the PAD. (2) Actual costs are taken from the client’s final reconciliation statement (see below) and reflects the US$4 million CIWA grant as well as the US$130,000 counterpart funding. Page 33 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) RECONCILIATION STATEMENT (November 2019) TRUST FUND NUMBER TF018921 ZAMBEZI WATERCOURSE COMMISSION USD CIWA TOTAL GRANT 4,000,000 ZAMCOM PAID 130,000 TOTAL GRANT 4,130,000 TOTAL TOTAL AMOUNT OF AMOUNT TOTAL THE OF THE AMOUNT TOTAL CONTRACT CONTRACT PAID IN AMOUNT CONSULTANTS IN USD IN EURO EURO PAID IN USD COWI 2,599,478.00 2,599,477.40 DHI 400,036.00 400,034.60 ENS AFRICA 249,401.00 249,401.00 3,248,915.00 3,248,913.00 TOTAL TOTAL AMOUNT OF AMOUNT TOTAL THE OF THE AMOUNT TOTAL CONTRACT CONTRACT PAID IN AMOUNT CONSULTANTS IN USD IN EURO EURO PAID IN USD DHI 804,426.00 834,313.09 DHI 48,964.10 DHI 2,885.91 886,163.10 Difference (Grant-Payments) - 5,076.10 Page 34 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) ANNEX 3. RECIPIENT, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS Page 35 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Page 36 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Page 37 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Page 38 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) ANNEX 4. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) A. LIST OF PROJECT DELIVERABLES AND CURRENT/POTENTIAL USES, BY PDO OUTCOME Deliverable Description Current/Potential Use PDO Outcome 1: to strengthen ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development of the ZRB through institutional strengthening Legal Equivalence Activity: Outlines the project approach as informed by initial Supporting document for the Final Options Paper • Deliverable 1: Inception research and stakeholder interviews, including a schedule (Deliverable 7). Report of laws and policies for analysis. A repository of laws and policies for analysis organised Supporting document for the Final Options Paper • Deliverable 2: according to the dimensions of water security identified in (Deliverable 7). Compilation of national the Inception Report, including an assessment of gaps in legislation and gap analysis national regulatory frameworks. Details, in the form of a good practice review of the Supporting document for the Final Options Paper • Deliverable 3: Draft dimensions of water security identified in the Inception (Deliverable 7). Comparative Analysis Report, a set of indicators of good practice for further comparative assessment. Summarises the results of the comparative assessment of Supporting document for the Final Options Paper • Deliverable 4: ZAMCOM the laws and policies of Member States against the (Deliverable 7). Agreement Comparative indicators of good practice and the requirements of the Assessment & Gap Analysis ZAMCOM Agreement. • Deliverable 5: Regional Summarises the results of the comparative assessment of Supporting document for the Final Options Paper and International the laws and policies of Member States against the (Deliverable 7). Comparative Assessment & indicators of good practice and the requirements of Gap Analysis regional and international agreements and water law. Page 39 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Deliverable Description Current/Potential Use Presents a set of Options for the harmonisation of water Supporting document for the Final Options Paper law and policy across the Zambezi River Basin and a process (Deliverable 7). • Deliverable 6: Draft for undertaking such, informed by the outcome of the Options Paper comparative assessment and gap analysis presented in Reports 4 & 5. Presents a set of options and priority clusters for the The harmonizing of water laws and policies across the ZRB, harmonisation of water law and policy across the ZRB and according to the options and priority clusters defined in this • Deliverable 7: Final an approach for its undertaking, informed by the outcome project, have been included as legal equivalence activities Options Paper of the comparative assessment and gap analysis presented in ZAMCOM’s 2019-2022 work plan. in Reports 4 & 5. Supporting documents developed by other Cooperating Partners: • Comprehensive Study on the Sustainability of ZAMCOM • ZAMCOM Communications and Visibility Strategy 2018-2021 • Gender Mainstreaming Strategy and Implementation Plan • Review of the ZAMCOM Capacity Building Needs Assessment Study and Development of a Capacity Development Plan • Rules and Procedures for Sharing of Data and Information Related to the Management and Development of the Zambezi Watercour se • ZAMCOM Procedures for Notification of Planned Measures • Stakeholder Participation, Partnerships and Instruments for Basin-Wide Cooperation PDO Outcome 2: to strengthen ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development of the ZRB through improved in formation sharing and decision-making Inception Phase: • Inception Report Outlines the project approach to the activity. Supporting document to the final deliveries for this activity. Page 40 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Deliverable Description Current/Potential Use Phase 1: Upgrading ZAMWIS Database The ZAMWIS Database is an information system containing This holds the data upon which the ZAMWIS Planning Tool relevant background and monitoring information relating to and Flow Forecasting System are run. This is the core of the planning and management of the water resources of the information system for ZAMCOM and has been/will be Zambezi River Basin, including spatial information, time updated on a regular basis with data/information from the • Updated ZAMWIS series data, knowledge documents. riparian states (based on the rules and procedures for the Database sharing of data and information) as well as through other projects and activities moving forward. Specifically, the database was used to produce the Hydrological Year Book in 2018. • WP1 - Review and Supporting documentation for the ZAMWIS Database Proposal for Upgrading of the ZAMWIS Database Supporting documentation for the ZAMWIS Database. This • Training materials and has been used for capacity building during project manuals implementation and will continue to be used for this purpose moving forward. Phase 2: Development of ZAMWIS DSS Allows for: (1) the evaluation of various development and It is an important tool that will we used as part of the management scenarios in the basin which supports notification procedures. The Planning Tool will allow the informed and transparent decision-making in a multi-sector riparian states to evaluate and assess the implications of • ZAMWIS Planning Tool and multi-country context and (2) the assessment of the national water resources development projects on a basin- implications of planned water resources developments wide scale and also allow ZAMCOM to assess planned by riparian states. transboundary implications of the overall development of the basin. • WP2 - ZAMWIS-DSS - Supporting documentation for the ZAMWIS-DSS activity for Conceptual Design this project. Document Page 41 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Deliverable Description Current/Potential Use Supporting documentation for the ZAMWIS-DSS activity for • WP3a - ZAMWIS Planning this project. This has been used for capacity building during Tool, models, training project implementation and will continue to be used for materials and manual this purpose moving forward. The Flow Forecasting System produces regular forecasts of The Flow Forecasting System is available online and can be water flow in the Zambezi River on a medium-term time used by used by member states, and anyone else, for scale (1-3 months). The system is built on precipitation information and decision-making. Possible uses iclude (1) forecasts, near real-time observations of river flows, and for the control of floods and drought through information • ZAMWIS Flow Forecasting water levels in reservoirs, combined with expected supplied to the reservoir operators; (2) for the sustainability System reservoir releases and applied operating rules. of ZAMCOM as an operation, through the supply (sale) of information to other water use sectors such as tourism. More concretely, it is expected to be used for further development by ZAMCOM, and RBOs in the basin, to support hydropower and early warning operations. Supporting documentation for the ZAMWIS Flow • WP3b - ZAMWIS Flow Forecasting System. This has been used for capacity Forecasting System and building during project implementation and will continue to Manuals be used for this purpose moving forward. Phase 3: Sustainability of ZAMWIS Defines the human resource development plan as well as During the project period, activities defined in the related measures for sustaining the plan after the development plan were undertaken, including training • WP4 - Human Resources completion of the existing project. A set of long-term workshops for ZAMSEC, NFIs and other basin institutions, Development Plan and targets are defined to describe the “ideal situation� to aim such as ZAMDO, Ministries, etc., to understand and operate Sustainability Scenarios for at in the future. The long-term targets are divided into the ZAMWIS-DSS planning tool and flow forecasting system. the ZAMWIS-DSS technical, institutional and financial targets. These will continue, going forward, through additional training activities described in the 2019-2022 workplan. Page 42 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Deliverable Description Current/Potential Use This report provides ZAMSEC and the staff in the Riparian The case studies have been and will continue to be: (1) a States with a method on how to use the MIKE HYDRO Basin key element in capacity building activities in which the model and the Zambezi Basin Planning Tool to address real ZAMWIS-DSS is used to assess the effect of selected live water resources challenges faced by the Riparian States investment opportunities/interventions; (2) an aid to • WP5 - Case studies both in a transboundary and national context. demonstrate the usefulness of the ZAMWIS-DSS; (3) a basis for the riparian states to continue working with the ZAMWIS-DSS through continued use of the models developed during the case studies. PDO Outcome 3: to strengthen ZAMCOM’s role in promoting cooperative management and development of the ZRB through improved strategic planning of basin development Strategic Plan The project inception report sets the plan for the Supporting document for the ZAMCOM Strategic Plan (D7). development of the Strategic Plan of the Zambezi • D1 - Inception Report for Watercourse (ZSP). It outlines the methodology and work the Strategic Plan for the plan for the Project. The inception report includes a Zambezi Watercourse collated list of strategic documents, studies and other literature that are relevant to the development of the ZSP. This presents the diagnostics of the development of the Supporting document for the ZAMCOM Strategic Plan (D7). Strategic Plan. The report includes: (1) a description of the context and main basin characteristics of the Zambezi River basin; (2) an overview of the current status of water • D2 - Situation Analysis management and development in the basin, including the and Strategic Directions implementation of the IWRM Strategy and Implementation Report Plan for the Zambezi River Basin (ZAMSTRAT); (3) a review of the current level of water usage and developments in the basin; (4) a synthesis of the development plans and strategies in the basin riparian states; and (5) the identification of emerging issues and strategic directions. Page 43 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Deliverable Description Current/Potential Use This document is a collation of all existing and planned Supporting document for the ZAMCOM Strategic Plan (D7). projects, their demands for utilisation of water, their costs and benefits, and their possible timing. The identified • D3 - Basin Development projects feed into the Basin Development Scenarios (D4), and Infrastructure the Investment Scenarios (D5) and the Online Monitoring Inventory and Implementation Tool (D8). This document is linked to the Infrastructure Inventory Database that was part of this deliverable. The deliverable identifies and analyzes possible Supporting document for the ZAMCOM Strategic Plan (D7). development actions or events for the Zambezi River basin. • D4 - Basin Development These build from information and results defined in Scenarios deliverables D2 and D3. The Basin Development Scenarios identified in this document feed into D5 (Basin Investment Plans). This output proposes a framework for structuring projects Supporting document for the ZAMCOM Strategic Plan (D7). and programmes, using identified criteria to balance investment needs and inform the strategic plan. This • D5 - Basin Investment includes an analysis of various models and options for Scenarios financing key priority investments in the sector and identifies opportunities for regional development through cooperative investments. The strategic plan (D6 and D7) is crafted based on the Basin Supporting document for the ZAMCOM Strategic Plan (D7). Development Scenarios (D4) and Basin Investment Scenario • D6 - Draft Strategic Plan analysis (D5) and draws from all previous studies (D2-D3 for the Zambezi and thematic papers). These documents outline the Watercourse strategy for water resources development in the Zambezi River basin. Page 44 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) Deliverable Description Current/Potential Use The strategic plan (D6 and D7) is crafted based on the Basin This ZSP (the collection of documents from D2-D7) is Development Scenarios (D4) and Basin Investment Scenario currently being used for widespread consultation with the analysis (D5) and draws from all previous studies (D2-D3 ZAMCOM Organs (Zambezi Watercourse Commission and thematic papers). These documents outline the Technical Committee, Zambezi Watercourse Commission • D7 - Final Strategic Plan strategy for water resources development in the Zambezi Secretariat, National Stakeholder Committees (NASCs), for the Zambezi River basin. Basin-wide Stakeholders Coordination Committees, as well Watercourse as other stakeholders including the SADC Secretariat and the International Development Partners. They development of the basin, going forward, will be based on the information and recommendations in the ZSP. This tool provides users with access to the data collected The tool is available online. It is currently mainly an and synthesized in the initial part of the study. It contains inventory of 300 development projects in the basin which information on model inputs and assumptions and is an allows the basin states (also publicly available) to update • D8 - Online Monitoring archive for raw model results and final ZSP products information on the advancement of these developments. Tool including reports and searchable data from findings and recommendations. This is an extension of the Infrastructure Inventory database produced as output D3. Thematic papers The thematic papers build on the analysis of the current The four thematic papers are incorporated into the Basin situation of the Zambezi basin, and provided inputs to Development Scenarios Report. development scenarios through (1) the identification of opportunities and threats related to each thematic area; (2) • Thematic Paper 1: the highlighting of key issues/factors to be incorporated Economics and Socio- into the future development scenarios; (3) Articulation of Economics how these key issues/factors will impact growth and development in the Zambezi River Basin. The four thematic papers are incorporated into the Basin Development Scenarios Report. • Thematic Paper 2: Water See description for Thematic Paper 1. See use as described for Thematic Paper 1. Resources • Thematic Paper 3: See description for Thematic Paper 1. See use as described for Thematic Paper 1. Ecosystems and Land-Use Page 45 of 46 The World Bank Zambezi River Basin Management Project (P143546) • Thematic Paper 4: Climate See description for Thematic Paper 1. See use as described for Thematic Paper 1. Change and Climate Variability Update B. Major functions of ZAMSEC as defined in the ZAMCOM Agreement a. Provide technical and administrative services to the Council under the Technical Committee’s supervision; b. Facilitate the development of a Strategic Plan, annual work programme, plans, studies, assessments and other documents required for the implementation of the Agreement for the approval of the Technical Committee; c. Collect, obtain, collate and evaluate data and information with regard to all relevant aspects of the Zambezi Watercourse as well as disseminate all such data and information to the Member States; d. Institute research and training programmes aimed at the sustainable utilization, protection and management of the Zambezi Watercourse; e. Advise Member States on the planning, utilization, development, protection and conservation, of the Zambezi Watercourse as well as the role and position of the Public with regard to such activities and the possible impact thereof on social and cultural heritage matters; f. Advise the Council and the Technical Committee on the listing and the effects of substances, the introduction of which into the Zambezi Watercourse shall be prohibited, limited, investigated or monitored by Member States, and provide guidelines for their mitigation; g. On the request of one or more of the Member States and subject to the approval of the Council, plan and implement development programmes or projects with regard to the Zambezi Watercourse; h. Develop and distribute programmes and materials aimed at fostering greater awareness among the inhabitants of the Zambezi River Basin on the equitable and reasonable utilization of the Zambezi Watercourse on the basis of the principles referred to in Article 12; i. Co-operate with the institutions of SADC and others as necessary and provide such data and information as may be reasonably required and be requested by such institutions; j. Obtain financial and technical support for the implementation of programmes, plans and projects necessary for the achievement of the objective of the Agreement in accordance with the guidelines and directives provided by the Council from time to time; k. Implement the decisions of the Council and of the Technical Committee; l. Make recommendations to the Technical Committee on the harmonisation of the national water policies and laws of the Member States; m. Perform all such other functions as the Council or the Technical Committee may from time to time assign. Page 46 of 46