98998 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Taking Stock  Eurozone GDP growth saw its best performance in seven quarters. According to flash estimates, Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4 percent (q/q) in Q1 2015, as expected, faster than the 0.3 percent growth in Q4 2014 (Figure 1). Growth in France, Spain and Italy accelerated, offsetting Germany’s weak performance. Separately, Eurozone industrial production rose 1.8 percent (y/y) in March, after February’s 1.9 percent increase, led by production increases in the energy sector.  U.S. industrial production fell for the fifth consecutive month in April, while retail sales were unexpectedly flat, and producer prices fell. U.S. industrial production fell by 0.3 percent (m/m), the same as in March (Figure 2). The continued decrease in industrial production was partly due to the sharp drop in oil and gas well drilling. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales were unchanged in April, following an upwardly revised 1.1 percent (m/m) increase in March. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, and building materials, were also flat. Separately, U.S. producer prices unexpectedly decreased in April, after edging up in March.  China’s industrial production expanded at a faster pace in April. China's industrial production expanded 5.9 percent (y/y) in April, faster than March's 5.6 percent increase, but less-than-expected. Growth in retail sales slowed for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China cut the benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points each, in a bid to boost lending to businesses, and provide stimulus to the slowing economy.  Mexico’s industrial production grow th remained moderate. Mexico's industrial production grew 1.7 percent (y/y) in March, same as in February. Low oil prices continued to weigh on mining and oil production. Mining output contracted 5.3 percent and oil output was down 4.8 percent.  Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed significantly in Q1. The Nigerian economy expanded 4.0 percent (y/y) in Q1 2015, the lowest growth since Q4 2012, following the 5.9 percent increase in Q4. GDP has slowed for the third consecutive quarter as lower oil prices and supply constraints dragged the oil sector down. On a quarterly basis, GDP shrank 11.6 percent in Q1. Meanwhile, consumer prices rose 8.7 percent (y/y) in April, up from 8.5 percent in March and the highest increase since July 2013, mainly driven by higher food cost. FIGURE 1 Eurozone GDP rose to a seven-quarter high in Q1 2015 FIGURE 2 U.S. industrial production contracted for the fifth consecutive month in April Percent Index IP level index (LHS) Percent 1.0 107 IP growth (RHS) 1.2 0.8 106 0.8 0.6 105 0.4 104 0.4 0.2 103 0.0 0.0 102 -0.2 101 -0.4 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jan-15 -0.4 Mar-14 May-14 Mar-15 Sep-14 Nov-14 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG (Derek Chen, Gerard Kambou, Xinghao Gong). Number 263 | May 15, 2015 Weekly Insight: Global Remittance Trends and Outlook Official remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to have reached $436 billion in 2014, more than three times larger than official development assistance ($135 billion). However, flows to developing countries are expected to slow in 2015, especially in Europe and Central Asia, owing to a weak economic outlook in remittance source countries.  Remittances remain a key source of funds for developing countries, far exceeding official development assistance and even foreign direct investment. Remittances have proved to be more stable than private debt and portfolio equity flows, and less volatile than official aid flows (figure 3). Annual remittances are also larger than, or equal to, foreign exchange reserves in many small countries. Even in large emerging markets, such as India, remittances are equivalent to at least a quarter of total foreign exchange reserves. India, China, Philippines and Mexico retained their position as the top recipients of migrant remittances in 2014. As a share of GDP, remittances are larger in small economies, particularly in Central Asian countries and Pacific islands (Figure 4). This high dependency on remittances has increased these countries’ vulnerability to shocks from remittance -sending countries.  Remittances to developing countries are projected to moderate significantly in 2015 to below 1 percent, about one-fifth the average growth in the previous three years . The weak growth rate reflects the continuation of trends that affected remittances in 2014, in particular weakness in European economies and the adverse effects of lower oil prices on Russia, a major source of remittances for Central Asian countries. In addition, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar is expected to lower the dollar value of remittances. For 2016-2017, the annual growth rate of remittances is projected to recover to above 4.0 percent, in line with the expectations of strengthening growth in the U.S., gradual recovery in Western Europe and Russia, and a rebound in the euro and the ruble. Even this relatively limited growth in remittances faces significant downside risks, including a larger-than-expected impact of Russia’s recession on European and Central Asian countries, an unexpectedly large impact of lower oil prices on the demand for migrant workers by oil producing countries, and a greater-than-expected depreciation of the currencies of remittance-sending countries against the U.S. dollar because of the expected tightening in U.S. monetary policy.  Remittances and migration can be leveraged for financing development . Developing countries could raise migrant savings by reducing remittance costs, lowering recruitment costs for low-skilled workers, and mobilizing diaspora savings and philanthropic contributions from migrants. Future inflows of remittances can also be used as collateral to facilitate international borrowing by national banks in developing countries. Moreover, remittances can facitlitate access to international capital markets by improving sovereign ratings and debt sustainability of recipient countries. Since remittances are large and more stable than many other types of capital flows, they can greatly enhance the recipient country’s sovereign credit rating, thus lowering borrowing costs and lengthening debt maturi ty. FIGURE 3 Remittance flows are larger than ODA, and more stable FIGURE 4 Large countries receive more remittances, but small than private capital flows. countries are often more dependent on them. Remittances and other resource flows to Percent of GDP, 2013 developing countries, billion US$ 50 800 Remittances FDI 40 Pvt debt and port. equity 30 600 ODA 20 10 400 0 Samoa Kyrgyz Republic Nepal Moldova Tonga Haiti Armenia Gambia, The Lesotho Tajikistan 200 0 1990 95 2000 05 10 14e 17f Sources: World Bank staff calculations, World Development Indicators, OECD. Source: IMF, World Bank Development Indicators, and World Bank staff Note: Private debt includes portfolio investment bonds, and commercial banks estimates. and other lending. Produced by DECPG (Dilip Ratha, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 263 | May 15, 2015 Major Data Releases Fri, 8 May - Thu, 14 May 2015 Upcoming releases: Fri, 15 May - Thu, 21 May 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Turkey 5/8/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) MAR 4.7% -0.5% 1.0% Greece 5/15/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q1 -0.4% United States 5/8/2015 Participation Rate APR 62.8% 62.8% 62.7% Thailand 5/17/2015 GDP(Q/Q) Q1 7.9% Malaysia 5/11/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) MAR 6.9% 4.5% 5.2% Japan 5/18/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) MAR -2.0% Germany 5/13/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q1 1.0% 1.3% 1.4% Eurozone 5/19/2015 CPI (Y/Y) APR -0.1% Eurozone 5/13/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q1 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% Japan 5/19/2015 GDP(Q/Q) Q1 0.4% Greece 5/13/2015 GDP (Y/Y) Q1 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% Malaysia 5/20/2015 CPI (Y/Y) APR 0.9% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Industrial Production, S.A. World 8.8 4.7 3.1 2.5 3.7 2.3 2.6 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.3 High Income Countries 7.7 2.9 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.2 0.7 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 Developing Countries 10.9 7.8 6.3 5.5 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.8 6.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 4.1 4.2 4.0 East Asia and Pacific 14.2 11.3 9.0 8.9 4.9 8.0 6.7 8.8 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.6 7.8 6.6 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.4 6.6 6.3 5.6 East Asia x. China 8.9 0.7 4.1 4.7 -0.4 7.7 4.1 6.5 0.5 2.6 4.0 4.8 1.1 4.6 5.8 4.4 3.9 5.0 4.8 3.6 6.0 Europe and Central Asia 11.0 13.1 8.9 2.2 5.1 1.8 1.8 -0.6 4.1 4.1 6.5 3.6 4.0 2.4 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.0 1.9 3.3 Latin America and Caribbean 5.9 2.5 -0.1 0.9 1.2 -2.6 -0.3 -2.8 1.6 -2.2 -1.1 -2.7 -1.6 -1.0 -1.4 -0.8 -1.5 -1.1 -2.3 -2.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 -8.5 5.6 -6.7 17.0 2.8 25.2 -2.0 -8.9 -9.1 -7.4 -4.7 -1.7 9.7 17.2 10.8 12.7 7.3 -0.4 -0.4 5.4 South Asia 9.3 5.5 1.1 1.7 7.1 5.8 2.1 -3.0 0.1 4.2 5.3 4.5 1.9 2.6 4.0 -0.9 5.9 3.7 3.4 5.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa 4.7 3.4 3.2 1.0 -2.8 -0.9 -5.1 10.9 -0.1 0.2 -1.6 0.6 -7.4 -0.6 6.4 1.6 -0.9 0.4 -1.4 -0.2 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 1.7 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 Developing Countries 5.8 7.5 6.5 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.7 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.7 8.2 7.7 7.9 7.8 East Asia and Pacific 3.4 5.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 Europe and Central Asia 7.3 8.2 8.7 6.2 5.8 7.4 7.9 8.1 6.2 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.4 7.8 7.6 8.2 9.2 Latin America and Caribbean 6.4 7.5 6.7 9.8 12.5 13.9 15.5 16.9 12.9 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.6 17.2 17.0 16.5 Middle East and N. Africa 7.0 12.0 13.8 19.2 13.2 9.7 10.1 10.8 11.3 10.1 9.9 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.6 10.6 11.3 10.4 10.9 11.1 South Asia 10.3 9.8 9.4 10.1 8.1 7.8 6.7 4.2 8.1 8.4 8.1 6.8 7.3 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.5 10.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.8 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 22.0 19.2 0.3 1.8 -2.5 3.2 2.9 -16.1 2.7 2.4 3.8 3.2 5.6 0.6 2.6 -1.8 -4.6 -4.0 -11.1 -6.8 -14.3 High Income Countries 19.5 18.5 -1.1 1.2 0.6 1.0 -1.2 -19.3 5.2 3.2 4.1 2.5 5.0 -0.4 1.0 -3.5 -6.3 -5.7 -12.6 -12.7 -12.8 Developing Countries 28.3 20.8 3.5 3.1 -9.1 8.5 12.7 -8.6 -2.8 0.6 3.3 4.7 7.1 2.9 6.5 2.0 -0.7 -0.1 -7.9 7.7 -14.6 East Asia and Pacific 30.8 19.7 6.3 6.5 -12.4 15.7 20.1 3.0 -3.6 2.2 5.3 7.6 11.2 8.1 12.7 8.3 3.5 5.7 -3.3 29.4 -12.4 Europe and Central Asia 15.5 20.3 -0.1 -0.2 8.1 -4.9 -6.7 -29.0 9.0 3.0 6.2 5.1 5.6 -4.0 -1.0 -6.3 -9.4 -11.8 -13.2 -16.3 -18.4 Latin America and Caribbean 28.1 23.2 1.7 0.6 -9.5 8.9 3.5 -25.0 -2.8 -0.3 1.3 1.8 5.8 -0.5 0.1 -4.1 -8.8 -6.6 -8.2 -12.8 -4.7 Middle East and N. Africa 24.0 15.6 5.1 -10.9 -2.3 -13.1 26.7 -32.4 -13.1 -13.1 -8.8 -9.2 -4.6 -8.5 -1.8 -5.1 -7.3 -10.7 -27.8 -- South Asia 34.3 31.6 -1.8 6.2 -8.4 4.2 7.1 -0.4 1.7 4.5 10.1 8.2 -0.6 1.1 -0.8 -5.7 8.3 -1.0 -7.7 -12.2 -18.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 32.6 19.9 -2.6 -0.6 -8.5 -7.0 -1.3 -18.1 -6.8 -5.3 -8.2 -2.7 -1.4 -10.2 -2.6 -9.8 -8.9 -8.0 -26.7 - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.0 19.6 0.7 1.3 4.1 -1.6 1.7 -16.0 3.8 2.0 1.9 5.4 3.3 0.6 3.9 -1.9 -4.2 -3.7 -13.9 -13.6 -11.4 High Income Countries 17.9 17.7 -1.0 0.3 4.7 1.0 -2.7 -18.9 7.5 4.4 4.1 6.4 5.4 0.4 2.2 -3.2 -5.4 -4.6 -13.9 -13.7 -12.8 Developing Countries 29.7 24.5 4.6 3.6 2.9 -7.1 12.2 -9.4 -3.9 -3.1 -2.8 3.3 -1.2 1.0 7.7 1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -14.0 -13.3 -8.1 East Asia and Pacific 37.3 24.1 5.7 6.2 4.8 -15.1 14.3 -8.9 -9.9 -2.3 -3.6 3.8 -2.4 -0.7 7.2 2.9 -5.2 -3.4 -17.6 -17.4 -9.6 Europe and Central Asia 20.6 27.1 -0.4 2.9 -11.1 -5.4 -1.4 -9.7 -0.5 -5.1 -3.0 0.0 -6.5 -2.3 -3.1 -6.0 -6.9 -8.0 -15.4 -14.1 -13.1 Latin America and Caribbean 29.0 22.3 3.8 3.0 3.8 -2.1 4.8 -7.3 2.9 -4.4 -2.2 2.8 -0.5 -1.7 7.6 -4.2 0.3 3.3 -7.7 -7.9 0.3 Middle East and N. Africa 14.8 17.4 10.3 1.2 2.4 -1.1 19.8 -21.6 3.8 2.4 3.6 -1.4 3.0 11.6 8.8 0.1 -3.2 -0.6 -12.6 -- South Asia 33.9 31.4 4.0 -4.0 11.3 8.2 35.6 -13.5 1.4 -9.6 -10.1 8.8 4.1 7.0 23.6 7.1 21.4 -1.3 -12.1 -12.8 -10.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 13.0 24.8 4.4 2.2 1.9 16.6 1.0 5.4 4.5 2.2 6.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 9.1 5.8 3.5 8.8 -1.1 - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 10.2 11.3 9.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 -1.8 -1.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.4 0.0 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 Developing Countries 15.6 10.5 5.2 8.2 1.8 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 East Asia and Pacific 19.3 11.9 4.5 12.2 3.0 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 Europe and Central Asia 9.3 5.5 7.8 3.6 -2.9 3.4 -1.7 -7.2 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.0 -1.1 1.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -4.2 -0.9 -3.2 -2.1 Latin America and Caribbean 16.2 16.3 8.4 -1.1 0.2 3.4 1.2 -1.2 0.1 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -1.8 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 Middle East and N. Africa 6.1 3.0 5.9 3.0 -1.9 -2.2 -3.8 -3.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 -1.0 -2.1 -3.7 -- South Asia 6.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 3.8 5.6 -0.6 2.1 3.3 2.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.3 1.0 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 263 | May 15, 2015 Financial Markets 1 2013 2014 2014 2015 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Sep-12 '08 3 Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 -1.97 ECB repo 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12 0.05 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 -4.20 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.34 0.34 0.43 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.27 -2.55 EURIBOR 3-months 0.75 1.34 0.49 0.15 0.20 0.27 0.27 0.13 0.00 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 -4.89 US 10-yr Treasury yield 3.20 2.77 1.79 2.33 2.73 2.75 2.61 2.49 2.27 2.59 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.27 -1.45 German Bund, 10 yr 2.78 2.65 1.57 1.63 1.79 1.68 1.43 1.07 0.77 1.35 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.72 -3.46 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 301 341 342 319 342 352 300 301 367 282 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 361 4 Asia 206 218 216 219 237 231 197 195 202 189 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 189 -107 Europe 247 301 320 267 290 301 265 262 319 236 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 321 8 Latin America & Caribbean 360 404 393 379 409 429 360 366 471 343 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 461 73 Middle East 342 366 449 435 428 408 376 369 398 360 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 404 -94 Africa 274 364 337 322 338 332 287 280 319 278 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 341 341 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 331 300 340 409 409 411 429 417 417 429 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 438 37.0 High-Income ($ Index) 1280 1183 1339 1661 1661 1674 1743 1698 1710 1743 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1790 39.5 United States (S&P-500) 1258 1258 1426 1848 1848 1872 1960 1972 2059 1960 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2098 67.7 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1124 1005 1143 1339 1339 1361 1401 1411 1401 1401 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1613 39.6 Japan (Nikkei-225) 10229 8455 10395 16291 16291 14828 15162 16174 0 15162 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 0 17674 18798 19207 19520 19765 61.8 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1151 916 1055 1003 1003 995 1051 1005 956 1051 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1034 20.9 EM Asia 468 379 447 446 446 444 472 460 457 472 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 502 53.3 EM Europe 529 395 473 438 438 409 435 374 297 435 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 349 -31.4 EM Europe & Middle East 450 336 402 372 372 348 360 321 257 360 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 294 -28.1 EM Latin America & Caribbean 4614 3602 3798 3201 3201 3194 3370 3171 2728 3370 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2707 -23.4 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.76 0.72 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.88 25.3 Japan 87.76 79.74 79.85 97.61 100.51 102.78 102.14 104.04 114.62 102.07 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 119.20 10.4 Developing Brazil 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.28 2.36 2.23 2.28 2.55 2.23 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.04 70.7 China 6.77 6.46 6.31 6.15 6.09 6.10 6.23 6.16 6.15 6.23 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.21 -9.3 Egypt 5.63 5.94 6.07 6.87 6.89 6.96 7.07 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.64 40.9 India 45.73 46.67 53.41 58.55 62.00 61.75 59.82 60.59 61.96 59.76 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 64.01 40.0 Russia 30.37 29.41 31.06 31.86 32.56 35.07 34.96 36.31 47.98 34.37 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 49.47 93.8 South Africa 7.32 7.26 8.21 9.65 10.16 10.86 10.54 10.77 11.22 10.68 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.89 48.8 Memo: USA nominal effective rate 100.19 98.53 102.00 104.76 106.30 108.31 108.66 110.57 114.05 109.31 109.43 110.61 111.67 112.66 113.83 115.67 117.82 119.65 121.74 121.39 120.31 25.6 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2013 2014 2014 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Sep-12 '08 3 1 Oil price, $/b, nominal 79 104 105 104 105 104 106 100 75 108 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 64 -34.4 Non - Oil Index 2 .. 97 87 80 76 76 78 74 71 77 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 66 .. 3 Metals and Minerals Index 103 117 99 94 92 88 87 89 83 87 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 78 -25.2 Baltic Dry Index 4 2755 1545 916 1215 1876 1375 980 954 1105 912 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 634 -86.8 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 263 | May 17, 2015