99753 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Taking Stock  U.S. economy in Q1 contracted less than previously estimated, while consumer spending climbed the most in six years in May. U.S. GDP contracted 0.2 percent (q/q saar) in Q1, less than the 0.7 percent decline previously reported (Figure 1). The upward revision was driven by stronger personal consumption, investment, and exports. Meanwhile, consumer spending jumped 0.9 percent in May, more than expected, following a revised 0.1 increase in April, reflecting in part the effects of lower gasoline prices and an improving labor market. Separately, the flash Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the U.S. fell to 53.4 in June, the lowest since October 2013, from 54 in May. A reading above 50 denotes expansion.  Eurozone PMI hit a four-year high in June. The flash estimate of the Markit Eurozone composite PMI reached 54.1 in June, a 49-month high, up from 53.6 in May. The latest reading was underpinned by improvements in both manufacturing and services sectors.  No agreement was reached between Greece and its creditors after a week of discussions. Eurogroup meetings on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday to discuss bailout deal proposals for Greece ended without an agreement. Euro Area finance ministers are set to hold their next session on Saturday. Without an agreement, Greece is expected to miss a €1.5bn loan repayment due to the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday June 30 .  South Korea cut 2015 growth outlook, reflecting the impact of MERS. The outbreak of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in South Korea has led the Ministry of Finance to cut its growth forecast for this year, from 3.8 percent to 3.1 percent. The virus has to date infected 179 persons, 27 of whom have died, in the largest outbreak outside of Saudi Arabia. The outbreak has led to a decline in consumer sentiment (Figure 2) and exports.  Brazil’s unemployment rate rose to a five-year high. Brazil’s unemployment rate in May increased more than expected to 6.7 percent, the highest since August 2010, from 6.4 percent in April. The continued increase in the unemployment rate came as tighter monetary and fiscal policy further slowed economic activity. At the same time, the Brazilian central bank raised its inflation forecast for 2015 to 9 percent from 7.9 percent, after inflation rose to an 11-year high of 8.5 percent (y/y) in May. FIGURE 1 U.S. GDP contracted 0.2 percent in Q1, less than FIGURE 2 Korea’s consumer sentiment dipped in June due to previously estimated. MERS. Percent, Index q/q saar Confirmed Earlier Estimated 110 5 108 4 106 3 104 2 102 1 100 = Neutral 100 -1 -2 98 Jan-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 May-15 Jun-15 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Nov-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 -3 Q1 2012 Q4 2012 Q3 2013 Q2 2014 Q1 2015 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG (Derek Chen, Gerard Kambou, Xinghao Gong). Number 269 | June 26, 2015 Weekly Insight: Liftoff in U.S. Interest rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: The Role of Global “Push” Factors The expected normalization of U.S. policy interest rates entails some risks of disruption to capital flows to emerging and developing countries. However, a strengthening recovery in the United States and continued policy easing by other major central banks should help mitigate these effects.  As the U.S. economy improves, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to begin to gradually raise policy rates in the near term, an event widely referred to as “liftoff”. The potential impact on capital flows to emerging and developing countries will largely depend on both “push” factors (global economic and financial conditions) and “pull” factors (country-specific prospects, vulnerabilities, and policies). The economic and policy context in advanced countries has evolved notably since the “taper tantrum” of May-June 2013, which could help facilitate emerging and developing countries’ transition to tightening financial conditions.  The recovery in advanced countries should help support activity in emerging and developing countries. Growth among G4 economies is projected to reach 2.2 percent in 2015, up from 1 percent in 2013 (Figure 3). In the United States, in particular, labor markets have improved significantly since the taper tantrum, suggesting that fulfillment of the Fed’s “full employment” mandate does not stand in the way of a nearing liftoff. Rising U.S. yields that reflect a strengthening U.S. economy would likely be associated with stronger growth in emerging markets.  Other major central banks remain firmly committed to policy easing, mitigating the impact of an incoming normalization of U.S. policy interest rates. Despite a recent pick up, long term yields in major economies are still exceptionally low (Figure 4). These low rates notably reflect monetary policy accommodation and prospects of significant balance sheet expansion by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan. Since ECB’s President Mario Draghi committed in its Jackson Hole speech in August 2014 to intensify policy easing, Euro Area long-term bond yields have declined, spilling over to U.S. long-term interest rates. Monetary stimulus measures by the ECB and Bank of Japan will continue to shore up global liquidity and help keep interest rates low around the world.  The liftoff and subsequent tightening cycle are expected to proceed smoothly. If the timing of the liftoff and the subsequent path of U.S. policy rates are accurately reflected in market expectations, the normalization of U.S. monetary policy amid robust growth prospects and continued accommodation by other major central banks will be part of a smooth transition for global financial markets. However, the “taper tantrum” of May-June 2013 is a reminder that even an event long anticipated by markets can surprise in its specifics and generate significant shifts in capital flows. FIGURE 3 GDP growth in G4 countries FIGURE 4 Long-term interest rates Percent Percent 2.5 6 G3 long-term interest rates 5 U.S. long-term interest rates 2.0 4 Average since 2000 1.5 3 2 1.0 1 0.5 0 Dec-12 Jan-07 Mar-09 Oct-10 Nov-11 Jun-12 Jul-13 Jan-14 Mar-15 Jul-07 Apr-10 May-11 Feb-08 Aug-08 Sep-09 Aug-14 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: World Bank. Source: Bloomberg. Aggregate GDP growth of G4 countries (United States, Euro Area, Japan, and Average of 10-year government bond yields of G3 countries (Euro Area, Japan, United Kingdom). and United Kingdom) weighted by GDP. Blue bar shows the taper tantrum period in May-June 2013. The latest data point is for June 8, 2015. Produced by DECPG (Marc Stocker, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 269 | June 26, 2015 Major Data Releases Fri, 19 Jun - Thu, 25 Jun 2015 Upcoming releases: Fri, 26 Jun - Thu, 2 Jul 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Malaysia 6/19/2015 CPI (Y/Y) MAY 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% Mexico 6/26/2015 Unemployment Rate MAY 4.3% China 6/22/2015 PMI Manufacturing JUN 49.6 49.4 49.2 UK 6/30/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q1 2.5% Mexico 6/22/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) APR 4.6% 2.3% 5.5% Indonesia 7/1/2015 CPI (Y/Y) JUN 7.2% United States 6/23/2015 PMI Manufacturing JUN 53.4 55.0 54.0 Brazil 7/1/2015 PMI Manufacturing JUN 45.9 United States 6/24/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q1 -0.2% -0.2% 2.2% United States 7/2/2015 Unemployment Rate JUN 5.5% Malaysia 6/25/2015 Unemployment rate APR 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Canada 7/2/2015 PMI Manufacturing JUN 49.8 Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Industrial Production, S.A. World 8.8 4.7 3.1 2.5 3.7 2.5 2.4 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 - High Income Countries 7.7 2.9 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.5 0.5 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.2 - Developing Countries 10.8 7.8 6.3 5.5 5.0 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.9 5.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 - East Asia and Pacific 14.2 11.3 9.0 8.9 5.2 8.2 6.4 8.5 7.5 8.0 8.2 8.6 7.8 6.6 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.4 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.7 East Asia x. China 8.9 0.7 4.1 4.7 -0.6 8.3 3.9 6.6 0.5 2.6 4.0 4.8 1.1 4.6 5.8 4.4 4.0 5.0 4.6 3.0 6.4 3.0 - Europe and Central Asia 11.0 13.1 8.9 2.2 4.8 1.7 1.8 -0.2 4.1 4.1 6.5 3.6 4.0 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.1 2.0 3.0 1.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 5.9 2.5 -0.1 0.9 1.1 -2.3 -0.5 -2.9 1.6 -2.1 -1.1 -2.7 -1.5 -1.0 -1.4 -0.8 -1.5 -1.1 -2.4 -2.8 -2.9 -3.7 - Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 -8.5 5.6 -6.6 18.3 3.0 27.6 -1.6 -9.1 -9.3 -7.3 -4.7 -0.1 11.3 16.3 12.1 13.4 8.1 -0.3 -0.7 5.1 4.7 - South Asia 9.3 5.5 1.1 1.7 7.1 5.3 2.7 -2.5 0.2 3.9 5.3 4.5 1.9 2.5 4.0 -0.9 5.8 4.3 3.4 5.1 3.6 5.0 - Sub-Saharan Africa 4.6 3.5 3.2 1.1 -3.1 0.4 -5.2 10.2 -0.2 0.4 -1.6 0.6 -7.2 -0.7 6.3 1.5 -0.8 0.6 -1.2 0.1 3.4 -1.5 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 1.7 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 Developing Countries 5.8 7.5 6.5 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.7 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.7 8.2 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 East Asia and Pacific 3.4 5.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 Europe and Central Asia 7.3 8.2 8.7 6.2 5.8 7.4 7.9 8.2 6.2 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.4 7.9 7.6 8.2 9.1 10.4 10.4 Latin America and Caribbean 6.4 7.5 6.7 9.8 12.5 13.9 15.5 16.9 12.9 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.6 17.2 16.9 16.5 15.2 14.4 Middle East and N. Africa 7.0 12.0 13.8 19.2 13.2 9.7 10.1 10.8 11.3 10.2 9.9 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.6 11.3 10.4 10.9 11.1 11.3 - South Asia 10.3 9.8 9.4 10.1 8.1 7.8 6.7 4.2 8.1 8.4 8.1 6.8 7.3 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.5 10.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.8 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.5 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 22.0 19.1 0.3 1.8 -1.8 3.2 2.5 -16.1 2.8 2.5 4.0 3.3 5.7 0.6 2.7 -1.7 -4.5 -3.9 -11.3 -7.3 -13.9 -14.34 - High Income Countries 19.5 18.5 -1.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 -1.6 -19.2 5.4 3.2 4.2 2.6 5.0 -0.5 1.0 -3.4 -6.3 -5.7 -12.8 -13.3 -13.8 -15.58 - Developing Countries 28.4 20.7 3.6 3.1 -8.4 9.0 12.1 -8.8 -2.8 0.7 3.4 4.8 7.3 3.0 6.7 2.1 -0.5 0.0 -8.0 7.0 -14.2 -11.59 - East Asia and Pacific 30.8 19.7 6.3 6.5 -12.0 16.3 19.6 2.5 -3.6 2.4 5.6 7.7 11.3 8.2 12.7 8.3 3.5 5.8 -3.3 29.4 -11.8 -6.729 -3.8 Europe and Central Asia 15.6 20.3 -0.1 -0.2 8.7 -5.0 -7.2 -28.6 9.0 2.9 6.3 5.2 5.6 -4.0 -0.9 -6.5 -9.4 -11.2 -13.2 -15.5 -17.1 -16.11 - Latin America and Caribbean 28.1 23.2 1.7 0.6 -9.3 9.0 3.0 -25.1 -2.8 -0.3 1.4 1.8 5.8 -0.6 0.0 -4.3 -8.8 -6.6 -8.1 -12.6 -4.7 -11.86 - Middle East and N. Africa 25.3 15.1 5.6 -11.2 -0.9 -10.2 27.1 -33.7 -12.6 -12.0 -8.4 -8.9 -3.3 -6.6 0.9 -4.9 -5.2 -10.8 -28.8 -35.3 - - - South Asia 34.3 31.6 -1.8 6.2 -7.5 6.9 5.6 -1.4 1.4 4.6 11.0 8.4 0.1 1.5 -0.4 -5.5 8.7 -0.7 -7.5 -11.5 -18.2 -10.43 -16.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 32.8 19.9 -2.4 -1.0 -4.3 -8.8 -3.0 -16.5 -7.2 -5.3 -9.3 -3.1 -1.7 -10.3 -2.8 -8.5 -8.1 -8.3 -26.9 -26.4 -- - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.1 19.6 0.7 1.3 4.4 -1.4 1.1 -15.6 3.9 1.9 2.0 5.5 3.3 0.5 3.9 -1.8 -4.2 -3.6 -13.9 -13.4 -11.3 -14.72 - High Income Countries 18.0 17.7 -1.0 0.3 5.1 1.1 -3.1 -18.4 7.6 4.3 4.2 6.5 5.4 0.4 2.3 -3.0 -5.3 -4.5 -13.8 -13.4 -12.6 -15.71 - Developing Countries 29.8 24.5 4.7 3.6 2.9 -6.7 10.9 -9.1 -3.8 -3.2 -2.6 3.3 -1.3 0.7 7.5 0.8 -1.6 -1.7 -14.0 -13.2 -8.1 -12.47 - East Asia and Pacific 37.3 24.1 5.7 6.2 5.0 -14.6 13.5 -9.0 -9.9 -2.3 -3.4 3.8 -2.4 -0.7 7.1 2.9 -5.2 -3.4 -17.6 -17.4 -9.8 -14.14 -15.4 Europe and Central Asia 20.6 27.1 -0.4 2.9 -10.7 -5.9 -6.6 -9.1 -0.4 -5.2 -3.0 0.0 -7.3 -4.3 -4.4 -7.2 -8.3 -8.8 -15.1 -13.3 -12.2 -16.89 - Latin America and Caribbean 29.0 22.3 3.8 2.9 3.3 -2.1 5.4 -6.9 2.9 -4.6 -1.9 2.8 -0.5 -1.7 7.7 -4.2 0.3 3.6 -7.6 -8.0 -0.2 -10.15 - Middle East and N. Africa 15.3 17.7 10.6 0.9 2.1 0.2 17.1 -20.2 4.0 2.9 3.9 -1.0 2.8 11.5 8.3 0.1 -3.0 -0.4 -12.9 -8.7 - - - South Asia 33.9 31.4 4.0 -4.0 9.6 10.0 34.6 -12.9 1.5 -10.0 -9.2 8.7 4.1 6.9 23.7 7.1 21.4 -1.2 -12.3 -12.7 -12.3 -7.267 -13.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 13.5 25.0 4.4 2.6 4.9 14.2 0.1 5.4 4.9 1.8 6.5 3.8 4.0 5.9 9.4 5.5 3.2 9.4 -2.2 2.6 - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 10.2 11.3 9.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 -1.8 -1.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.7 - Developing Countries 15.6 10.5 5.2 8.2 1.8 1.5 -2.0 -1.7 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -1.6 - - East Asia and Pacific 19.3 11.9 4.5 12.2 3.0 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 - - Europe and Central Asia 9.3 5.5 7.8 3.6 -2.9 3.4 -1.7 -7.2 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.0 -1.1 1.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -4.2 -0.9 -3.2 -2.1 1.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 16.2 16.3 8.4 -1.1 0.2 3.4 1.2 -1.2 0.1 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -1.8 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.7 -0.3 Middle East and N. Africa 6.1 3.0 5.9 3.0 -1.9 -2.2 -3.8 -3.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 -1.0 -2.1 -3.7 -0.8 - - - South Asia 6.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 3.8 5.6 -0.6 2.1 3.3 2.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.9 1.4 1.7 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 269 | June 26, 2015 Financial Markets 1 2013 2014 2014 2015 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Sep-12 '08 3 Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 -1.97 ECB repo 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12 0.05 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 -4.20 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.34 0.34 0.43 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 -2.54 EURIBOR 3-months 0.75 1.34 0.49 0.15 0.20 0.27 0.27 0.13 0.00 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 -4.89 US 10-yr Treasury yield 3.20 2.77 1.79 2.33 2.73 2.75 2.61 2.49 2.27 2.59 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.40 -1.32 German Bund, 10 yr 2.78 2.65 1.57 1.63 1.79 1.68 1.43 1.07 0.77 1.35 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.87 -3.31 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 301 341 342 319 342 352 300 301 367 282 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 375 18 Asia 206 218 216 219 237 231 197 195 202 189 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 196 -100 Europe 247 301 320 267 290 301 265 262 319 236 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 316 3 Latin America & Caribbean 360 404 393 379 409 429 360 366 471 343 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 494 106 Middle East 342 366 449 435 428 408 376 369 398 360 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 -88 Africa 274 364 337 322 338 332 287 280 319 278 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 351 351 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 331 300 340 409 409 411 429 417 417 429 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 435 36.1 High-Income ($ Index) 1280 1183 1339 1661 1661 1674 1743 1698 1710 1743 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1786 39.2 United States (S&P-500) 1258 1258 1426 1848 1848 1872 1960 1972 2059 1960 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2109 68.5 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1124 1005 1143 1339 1339 1361 1401 1411 1401 1401 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1620 40.2 Japan (Nikkei-225) 10229 8455 10395 16291 16291 14828 15162 16174 0 15162 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 0 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20868 70.8 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1151 916 1055 1003 1003 995 1051 1005 956 1051 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 993 16.1 EM Asia 468 379 447 446 446 444 472 460 457 472 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 488 48.8 EM Europe 529 395 473 438 438 409 435 374 297 435 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 316 -38.0 EM Europe & Middle East 450 336 402 372 372 348 360 321 257 360 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 270 -34.1 EM Latin America & Caribbean 4614 3602 3798 3201 3201 3194 3370 3171 2728 3370 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2564 -27.5 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.76 0.72 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.89 27.2 Japan 87.76 79.74 79.85 97.61 100.51 102.78 102.14 104.04 114.62 102.07 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.81 14.7 Developing Brazil 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.28 2.36 2.23 2.28 2.55 2.23 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.08 72.7 China 6.77 6.46 6.31 6.15 6.09 6.10 6.23 6.16 6.15 6.23 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.21 -9.3 Egypt 5.63 5.94 6.07 6.87 6.89 6.96 7.07 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.63 40.7 India 45.73 46.67 53.41 58.55 62.00 61.75 59.82 60.59 61.96 59.76 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.61 39.1 Russia 30.37 29.41 31.06 31.86 32.56 35.07 34.96 36.31 47.98 34.37 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 53.84 110.9 South Africa 7.32 7.26 8.21 9.65 10.16 10.86 10.54 10.77 11.22 10.68 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.17 52.2 Memo: USA nominal effective rate 100.19 98.53 102.00 104.76 106.30 108.31 108.66 110.57 114.05 109.31 109.43 110.61 111.67 112.66 113.83 115.67 117.82 119.65 121.73 121.39 121.03 122.13 27.5 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2013 2014 2014 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Apr Sep-12 '08 3 Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 79 104 105 104 105 104 106 100 75 108 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 62 -36.8 Non - Oil Index 2 .. 97 87 80 76 76 78 74 71 77 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 .. 3 Metals and Minerals Index 103 117 99 94 92 88 87 89 83 87 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 70 -32.5 Baltic Dry Index 4 2755 1545 916 1215 1876 1375 980 954 1105 912 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 829 -82.7 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 269 | June 26, 2015