THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS QUENTIN WODON, CLAUDIO MONTENEGRO, HOA NGUYEN, AND ADENIKE ONAGORUWA JULY 2018 THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS QUENTIN WODON, CLAUDIO MONTENEGRO, HOA NGUYEN, AND ADENIKE ONAGORUWA BACKGROUND TO THE SERIES This study is part of a series of notes at the World Bank Through lower expected earnings in adulthood and higher on the potential cost of not educating girls globally. fertility over their lifetime, a lack of education for girls Despite substantial progress over the last two decades, leads to higher rates of poverty for households. This is due girls still have on average lower levels of educational to both losses in incomes and higher basic needs from attainment than boys in many countries, especially larger household sizes. Data on subjective perceptions also at the secondary and tertiary levels. As documented suggest that higher educational attainment is associated with by the World Development Report 2018, when it perceptions of higher well-being among women. comes to actual learning, while girls tend to outperform boys in reading, they score lower in math and science Low educational attainment for girls may also weaken tests in many countries. Together with occupational solidarity in communities and reduce women’s participation segregation and social norms that discourage women in society. Lack of education is associated with a lower to take full advantage of labor market opportunities, proclivity to altruistic behaviors, and it curtails women’s voice this leads to large gaps in earnings between men and and agency in the household, at work and in institutions. women. In addition, low educational attainment for Fundamentally, a lack of education disempowers women and girls has potential negative impacts on a wide range girls in ways that deprive them of their basic rights. of other development outcomes not only for the girls themselves, but also for their children, families, At the level of countries, a lack of education for girls can lead communities, and societies. The objective of the series to substantial losses in national wealth. Human capital wealth of notes is to document these potential impacts and is the largest component of the changing wealth of nations, their economic costs. ahead of natural capital (such as oil, minerals, and land) and produced capital (such as factories or infrastructure). By Low educational attainment affects girls’ life trajectories reducing earnings, low educational attainment for girls leads in many ways. Girls dropping out of school early are to losses in human capital wealth and thereby in the assets more likely to marry or have children early, before they base that enables countries to generate future income. Low may be physically and emotionally ready to become educational attainment for girls is also associated with higher wives and mothers. This may affect their own health. population growth given its potential impact on fertility It may also affect that of their children. For example, rates. This may prevent some countries from ushering the children of mothers younger than 18 face higher risks transition that could generate the demographic dividend. of dying by age five and being malnourished. They Finally, low educational attainment for girls may lead to may also do poorly in school. Other risks for girls and less inclusive policy-making and a lower emphasis on public women associated with a lack of education include investments in the social sectors. Overall, the message is intimate partner violence and a lack of decision-making clear: educating girls is not only the right thing to do. It also ability in the household. makes economic and strategic sense for countries to fulfill their development potential. 1 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 KEY RESULTS early childbearing; (3) fertility and population growth; (4) health, nutrition, and well-being; (5) agency and decision- Globally, nine in ten girls complete their primary education, making; and (6) social capital and institutions. Within those but only three in four complete their lower secondary domains, more than 50 different outcomes are considered. education. In low income countries, despite progress over the For most outcomes, estimates of correlations are obtained last two decades, less than two thirds of girls complete their using household survey data for more than 100 countries, primary education today, and only one in three completes both developed and developing. For some outcomes that lower secondary school. In addition, as documented by may be more relevant for developing countries, results are the World Development Report 2018, girls just like boys based on analysis for a core set of 18 developing countries suffer the consequences of a global learning crisis by which (see Appendix 1). too many children in the developing world do not acquire the foundational skills that a functional education system The goal is that these associations can illustrate the wide- ought to ensure. Girls tend to outperform boys in reading, ranging potential impacts and cost of not educating girls, but they score lower in mathematics and science tests in and in this way foster greater policy mobilization towards many countries. While there is no systematic data on socio- ensuring that all girls complete secondary school and acquire emotional skills across countries, education systems that fail the foundational skills needed to thrive in the labor market to deliver these basic skills are also likely to underperform in and live more fulfilling lives. While the study pulls together nurturing important socio-emotional skills. in one place results on potential impacts and costs in many domains, as noted in Box 1, the analysis only provides orders More needs to be done to improve educational opportunities of magnitude of potential impacts and costs, nor precise for girls, as well as learning while in school. To make the case nor definitive values. In order to materialize the potential for such investments, given data constraints, the focus of this economic benefits from expanding girls’ education, countries study is on the potential impacts and cost of low educational need to make the necessary investments in the inputs attainment for girls as opposed to lack of learning. required to improve both access and learning, and adopt the Specifically, the study documents associations of low policy reforms that can propel the economy to grow and educational attainment for girls with six domains of interest: generate jobs for a more educated workforce. (1) earnings and standards of living; (2) child marriage and JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 2 BOX 1: CONTRIBUTION AND LIMITS OF THE STUDY This note summarizes findings from a research program at the World Bank to document the potential negative impacts of low educational attainment for girls, and some of the related economic costs. The fact that investing in girls is essential for development is not news. The contribution of this study is to illustrate the potential negative effects of not investing in girls in a slightly more comprehensive way, with more recent survey data, and for a larger set of countries than done so far. By pulling together evidence on the associations between educational attainment for girls and multiple socio-economic domains in many countries, the analysis can help foster greater mobilization towards girls’ education. As with any empirical work of this nature, estimates of potential impacts and costs are subject to two important caveats. First, estimates from available observational data do not permit establishing causal relationships. Thus, when referring to potential ‘impacts’, the analysis should be taken as only suggestive of what might be achieved with higher educational attainment for girls and women and related policy changes. What is measured are associations between educational attainment and other development outcomes. For several of the outcomes considered, whether these associations reflect casual relationships can be corroborated by evidence from existing empirical studies that are able to more credibly establish causality. But for other outcomes, fewer such studies are available. Second, simulations of the benefits of increasing girls’ education obtained from the estimates of potential impacts do not account for broader effects in the economy arising from an expansion in the number of better educated girls or women. The economics literature suggests that these effects can be sizable, particularly lowering the overall returns to schooling in the labor market. Thus, estimates only provide orders of magnitude of potential impacts and costs, not precise values of ultimate potential impacts taking into account general equilibrium effects. KEY FINDINGS ACROSS DOMAINS worth mentioning that girls and women in contexts of fragility and violence are especially vulnerable to • Education matters for all children, but especially for the consequences of low educational attainment. girls in some areas: Many of the potential impacts of education on development outcomes apply to both • While primary schooling is necessary, it is not boys and girls. When a child does not finish secondary sufficient: For many indicators, having a primary school, or does not learn what is needed to function education does not make a large difference versus productively as an adult, potential costs are high for having no education at all. The gains associated with boys and girls alike in terms of lost earnings. But not educational attainment tend to be substantial only educating girls is especially costly in part because of with a secondary education. This is likely in part a the relationships between educational attainment, reflection of the failure of schools to deliver learning child marriage, and early childbearing, and the risks of basic skills in the early grades, thus hindering the that they entail for young mothers and their children. progression of girls to higher educational attainment. In addition, occupational segregation by gender But the implication is that while primary schooling between paid and unpaid (housework and care) work, lays the foundation for future learning, it is essential and between types of employment and sectors, to enable girls to pursue their education through the also lead to especially high potential costs for girls. secondary level and to ensure that learning occurs in Although this is not discussed in this study, it is also order to reap the benefits from more education. 3 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 KEY FINDINGS BY DOMAIN • Health, nutrition and well-being: Universal secondary education could increase women’s knowledge of HIV/ • Earnings and standards of living: Women with primary AIDS and their ability to make decision about their education (partial or completed) earn only 14 to 19 own healthcare by one fifth nationally. Women’s percent more than those with no education at all. By psychological well-being could also improve and the risk contrast, women with secondary education may expect of intimate partner violence could decrease. In countries to make almost twice as much, and women with tertiary where potential impacts are statistically significant, education almost three times as much as those with no universal secondary education for mothers could reduce education. Secondary and tertiary education are also stunting rates for their children by more than a third. associated with higher labor force participation, and Reductions in under-five mortality of about one fifth especially full-time work. Finally, women with secondary versus baseline rates could also be achieved in those and tertiary education report higher standards of living countries. With the important exception of under-five compared to those with primary education or lower. For mortality, the gains from universal primary education in example, women with a secondary education are less the area of child health appear once again to be limited. likely to state that they do not have enough money to buy food versus women with primary education or less. • Agency and decision-making: Achieving universal secondary education could increase by one tenth • Child marriage and early childbearing: Each additional women’s reported ability to make decisions within the year of secondary education is associated with lower household, from baseline values. Women with secondary risks of marrying as a child and having a child before education report lower satisfaction rates with basic age 18 by six percentage points on average. If universal services than women with no education, which may secondary education were achieved, child marriage reflect a more realistic assessment of their quality. could be virtually eliminated, and the prevalence of Finally, having a secondary education is associated with early childbearing could be reduced by up to three higher birth registration in some countries, although fourths since early childbearing goes hand in hand with results are not robust across countries. As with the child marriage. This also means that when assessing other indicators, while some benefits could result from benefits from educating girls at the secondary level, universal primary education, they would be smaller. we should include benefits from reducing child marriage and early childbearing. By contrast, primary • Social capital and institutions: Achieving universal education is not associated with lower risks of child secondary education could enable more women to marriage and early childbearing in most countries. display altruistic behaviors such as volunteering, donating to charity, and helping strangers, with a change of • Fertility and population growth: Universal secondary up to one tenth from baseline values. A secondary education could reduce total fertility by a third in education is also associated with a higher likelihood for 18 developing countries considered for the analysis. women of reporting being able to rely on friends when About two thirds of this potential impact could come in need and it could affect how women perceive their from education itself, and one third from ending countries’ institutions, although in this specific area child marriage. Universal secondary education could more work would be needed to confirm the robustness also lead to an increase in modern contraceptive of those relationships. For this set of indicators, the use of a fourth from the base. If girls were better potential gains from primary versus no education educated, and if child marriage were to be drastically at all cannot be measured given data limitations. reduced thanks to universal secondary education, population growth could be reduced substantially, especially in countries that have not yet achieved the demographic transition. This could generate a large demographic dividend. Again, the potential impact of primary education in all these areas is much smaller. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 4 POTENTIAL ECONOMIC COSTS ASSOCIATED person, especially in low income countries that have WITH SELECTED DOMAINS high population growth. The gains in human capital per capita that could result from lower population growth • Lost human capital wealth due to lower earnings with universal secondary education could be initially for women: Lower earnings for women in adulthood smaller than those estimated for women’s earnings, at due to low educational attainment lead to losses in more than US$ 3 trillion in the first year after achieving human capital wealth defined as the present value universal secondary education. These gains could of the future earnings of the labor force. The loss in however cumulate over time, rivalling within a decade human capital wealth incurred today because many the losses from women’s lower earnings due to low levels adult women did not benefit in their youth from of educational attainment. universal secondary education (defined as 12 years of schooling) is estimated to range between US$ 15 trillion to US$ 30 trillion globally. The higher estimate SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS is based on current benefits from higher educational attainment. The lower estimate considers a scenario The Summary Table below provides the main estimated in which the educational expansion could reduce by as potential impacts by domain, together with an indication much as one half the benefits from higher educational of country coverage for the estimations by distinguishing attainment. This could happen if the economy fails estimates based on global data from those based on a core to grow at a rate that can generate sufficient jobs to set of 18 developing countries (DCs). Potential impacts are absorb the more educated women entering the labor summarized by showing gains from a secondary education market, and/or if the educational expansion were to in comparison to no education at all. In most cases, potential negatively affect education quality due to the lack of impacts are estimated for the completion of secondary adequate investments in inputs required to ensure school, but in some cases the potential impacts are for learning. It should be noted that increases in labor force both partial and completed secondary school combined. In participation of women out of the labor force are not virtually all cases, estimates of the potential impacts of low included in these estimates – only earnings gains for educational attainment for girls – or equivalently of gains women already working are considered in the analysis. associated with higher educational attainment as captured In proportion of baseline human capital wealth values, by secondary education, are large. As documented in the losses from low educational attainmet are larger in more detailed in the study, most gains are associated with countries with low educational attainment for girls. secondary as opposed to primary education. It should again be emphasized that what is measured is associations, not • Lost human capital wealth due to lower earnings necessarily causal impacts. In addition, for some indicators, for stunted children: Stunting in early childhood especially in the case of agency and decision-making, leads to losses in earnings in adult life. Stunting rates and social capital and institutions, the data often pertain could be reduced with universal secondary education to reported behaviors and perceptions, thereby making for mothers, which could generate gains in human interpretation more tentative. capital wealth. The magnitude of those gains is likely to be smaller than the direct effect on women’s Finally, the Table also summarizes the two potential impacts earnings, but it is still likely to be substantial. for which a monetary cost is provided. The potential costs run in the tens of trillions of dollars. The estimates are only orders • Welfare effects from population growth: Low of magnitude since they depend on models and assumptions, educational attainment for girls is associated with but they demonstrate that the potential cost of not higher rates of fertility and population growth. This educating girls is very high for the girls and societies overall. in turn reduces levels of human capital wealth per 5 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 Summary Table: Selected Potential Benefits from Ensuring a Secondary Education for Girls Domain Coverage Estimated Potential Impacts Global Doubling of expected earnings in adulthood Earnings and standards of living Global Increase in labor force participation by one tenth Global Gain in perceptions of standards of living of up to one tenth DCs Virtual elimination of child marriage Child marriage and early childbearing DCs Reduction in early childbearing by up to three fourths DCs Reduction in total fertility by one third Fertility and population growth DCs Increase in contraceptive use by one fourth Global Reduction in global population growth by 0.3 point DCs Increase in women’s knowledge of HIV/AIDS by one fifth DCs Increase in women’s decision-making ability for health by one fifth Health, nutrition and well-being Global Increase in women’s psychological well-being DCs Reduction in under-five mortality rate by up a fifth DCs Reduction in under-five stunting rate by more than a third DCs Women more likely to exercise decision-making in the household Agency and decision-making Global Women possibly more likely to better assess quality of basic services DCs Increase in likelihood of birth registration by one fifth Global Women more likely to report altruistic behaviors Social capital and institutions Global Women more likely to report ability to rely on friends when in need Global Women possibly more likely to better assess institutions and leaders Global Loss in human capital wealth from US$ 15 trillion to US$ 30 trillion Potential economic costs Global Benefit from reduced population growth of more than US$ 3 trillion in first year after universal secondary completion, cumulative over time Source: Authors. Note: DCs = Developing countries. To conclude, low educational attainment for girls can have ensure that all girls can go to school and acquire foundational pervasive potential impacts ranging from lower earnings cognitive and socio-emotional skills while in school. While the and standards of living to lower psychological well-being public and private cost of providing universal quality primary and agency for girls and women. Possibly in part because and secondary education for all girls could be far from educational investments at the secondary level provide an negligible, the potential returns to this investment could be option value to continue investing to acquire further skills much larger. Increasing investments in girls’ education makes later in life, the benefits from education are much larger at economic sense. It is also the right thing to do. the secondary than at the primary level. Countries need to JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 6 INTRODUCTION The lack of educational attainment and learning for girls has multiple negative potential effects throughout their Globally, according to data for 2016 from the World Bank’s lifetime not only for themselves, but also for their children World Development Indicators, nine in ten girls (89.3 and households, their communities, and societies or percent) complete their primary education, but only three countries. This note summarizes findings from a research in four (77.1 percent) complete their lower secondary program at the World Bank to document the potential education. In low income countries, the situation is much negative impacts of low educational attainment for girls, worse. Less than two thirds of girls (65.0 percent) complete and some of the economic costs associated with those their primary education, and only one in three (34.4 potential impacts. The fact that investing in girls is smart percent) completes lower secondary school. The fourth economics is not news. The point was made in the World Sustainable Development Goal is to ensure inclusive and Development Report on gender (World Bank, 2012) and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning in many other studies before that (see for example World opportunities for all. The first target under this goal is Bank, 2001). The contribution of this study is to document to ensure that by 2030 all girls and boys complete free, the potential negative effects of not investing in girls in equitable and quality primary and secondary education perhaps a slightly more comprehensive way and with more leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes. At recent survey data than has been done so far. The hope is current rates of progress, many countries are unlikely to that by illustrating the wide-ranging potential impacts and achieve this target. More needs to be done to improve costs of not educating girls, the analysis will foster even educational attainment and learning for all children, boys greater policy mobilization towards improving education and girls alike. At the same time, a special focus needs to opportunities for girls. be placed on girls who remain at a disadvantage versus boys in many countries, especially at the secondary level. 7 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 The framework that guides the analysis is provided in Figure 1. the six domains of potential impacts are related to each other It builds on three recent studies at the World Bank. The first in various ways as noted in Box 2, for simplicity key findings study focused on the economic impacts of child marriage are presented in this study sequentially for each domain and was implemented jointly with the International Center considered individually. for Research on Women (Wodon et al., 2017). The other two studies provided an analysis of the changing wealth of nations More than 50 different indicators or outcomes of interest (Lange et al., 2018) and an estimation of the global cost of are used for assessing the potential impacts of not educating gender inequality in earnings (Wodon and de la Brière, 2018). girls. Some indicators are objective measures. Examples Building on past work, six domains of potential impacts of include total fertility rates, women’s earnings, rates of girls’ education are considered: (1) earnings and standards of under-five mortality and stunting, and altruistic behaviors. living; (2) child marriage and early childbearing; (3) fertility Other indicators are perceptions-based, as is the case with and population growth; (4) health, nutrition, and well-being; perceptions of standards of living, psychological well-being, (5) agency and decision-making; and (6) social capital and institutions, and national leaders. While not all indicators may institutions. The potential impacts of not educating girls in be equally important for development, poverty reduction, these domains are estimated using regression analysis and a and shared prosperity, conducting analysis for a large set of wide range of datasets (see Appendix 1 for a description of indicators helps to convey the fact that the consequences of the main datasets and an outline of the methodology). While not educating girls are truly pervasive and wide-ranging. Figure 1: Conceptual Framework Economic Benefits Six Domains of Potential Impacts Development Outcomes Higher EDUCATION FOR GIRLS Earnings Earnings and Standards of Living World Bank twin goals: Child Marriage and Early Childbearing Ending extreme Gains in poverty and Complex Direct Welfare boosting shared Fertility and Population Growth and Indirect prosperity (growth for Health, Nutrition, and Well-being Potential Impacts the bottom 40 percent) Budget Agency and Decision-making Savings Social Capital and Institutions Other Source: Authors Benefits JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 8 BOX 2: INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN DOMAINS AND BENEFITS FROM QUALITATIVE DATA For simplicity, findings on the potential impacts of low educational attainment for girls are presented in this study for each domain of potential impact separately. Yet in practice, the various domains are interdependent. To illustrate how this is the case, consider a simple life cycle approach, whereby stages in the life of girls are considered. Social norms may contribute to disadvantage for girls early on, but they emerge in full force in adolescence when in many contexts, girls may have to get married as children if they drop out of school. This contributes to early childbearing and higher total fertility over their lifetime. In turn, having many children may affect women’s ability to participate in the labor market in adulthood, and low educational attainment reduces their earnings when working. This may affect decision-making ability within the household, voice, and social capital throughout women’s life. Finally, early childbearing, high fertility rate, and income losses also have intergenerational effects, contributing among others to higher risks of child mortality and malnutrition for children of poorly educated mothers. The challenges and obstacles faced by girls and women with low educational attainment are multifaceted. They reinforce each other, leading to a diminished ability to break away from patterns of disadvantages. In this study, the focus is on quantitative analysis to estimate the potential impacts and cost of not educating girls. In some cases, interdependence between domains is explicitly considered. This is the case when considering the potential combined impacts of both low educational attainment and child marriage on other outcomes. But there are limits to the extent to which the interdependence between domains can be considered without making the quantitative analysis overly complex. Qualitative data and narratives are another way to illustrate interdependence between domains. For this reason, selected quotes from qualitative data collected as part of the work program of which this study is part, as well as quotes from a few other existing studies, are provided. The number of such quotes is however kept quite small in part for space reasons (to keep the study relatively short), but also because this is not the main focus and contribution of the study. While those few quotes do not do justice to the richness of qualitative work being done on the consequences of low educational attainment, it is hoped that they illustrate concretely the hardship faced by girls and women when they drop out of school. 9 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 The term ‘cost’ in ‘the cost of not educating girls’ is to be available observational data do not permit establishing causal understood in a broad sense. For example, as shown in this relationships. Thus, when referring to potential ‘impacts’, the study, women with low levels of educational attainment are analysis should be taken as only suggestive of what could more likely on average to suffer from feelings of pain, worry, be achieved with higher educational attainment for girls sadness, stress, and anger after controlling for many other and women and related policy changes. For several of the factors that could be correlated with these perceptions. This outcomes considered, the magnitude of the potential effects is a true cost associated with low educational attainment could be corroborated by evidence from existing empirical even if no monetary value for this cost is provided. These studies that are able to more credibly established causal non-monetary costs should not be underestimated when relationships. But for other outcomes, fewer such studies are considering programs and policies in various areas. But in available. Second, simulations obtained from the estimates addition, we also compute monetary or economic costs for of potential impacts do not account for broader effects in some potential impacts of not educating girls. This is done the economy arising from an expansion in the number of only for potential impacts on earnings and population growth better educated girls or women. The latter could happen because of the data and assumptions needed to compute such if the economy fails to grow at a rate that can generate costs with some level of accuracy. sufficient jobs to absorb the more educated women entering the labor market, and/or if the educational expansion were Conceptually, at least four main types of benefits or costs to negatively affect education quality due to the lack of could be considered: (i) higher earnings; (ii) higher welfare adequate investments in inputs required to ensure learning. due to lower population growth; (iii) budget savings (or costs); Thus, estimates only provide orders of magnitude of potential and (iv) other benefits, including in terms of individual feelings impacts and costs, not precise or definitive values of ultimate and perceptions, as just mentioned. In this study, monetary effects. costs are estimated for the two first categories only – higher earnings for women in adulthood, and higher welfare due One last caveat to the analysis must be mentioned. This study to lower population growth. On budget savings and costs, focuses on the potential impacts of low educational attainment additional work would be required to estimate net potential as opposed to lack of learning on a range of development effects, but the study notes that while providing better outcomes for girls and women. This focus is driven by data education opportunities for girls (and boys) would have a cost, limitations. Apart from improving educational attainment, it may also lead in certain areas to budget savings, among there is an urgent need to improve learning in school, as noted others for the provision of basic services thanks to lower by the World Development Report 2018. Ideally, the analysis population growth. In Figure 1, the framework is presented in should cover not only educational attainment, but also how terms of the benefits from girls’ education. In this note, we much girls learn in schools, and whether they acquire the skills will in most cases use the language of costs associated with low – cognitive and non-cognitive – that they will need throughout educational attainment, but the approach is essentially the their life. Unfortunately, data sources for conducting such same. work remain limited, and available only for a handful of countries. Because the focus of this study is global in nature, Finally, educating girls has implications not only for individuals the analysis focuses on the potential negative impact of a lack and households, but also for nations and the world. By of educational attainment, leaving the issue of insufficient raising standards of living through higher earnings and lower learning and skills for future work, even though lack of learning population growth, educating girls would lead to reductions in school is one of the reasons why girls drop out of school (see in poverty. Furthermore, since girls and women from lower Box 3). socio-economic backgrounds are the most affected by low levels of educational attainment, educating girls would also In what follows, the analysis of the potential impacts of girls’ contribute to boosting shared prosperity, defined as achieving educational attainment on development outcomes is first higher rates of income growth for the bottom 40 percent of presented according to the six domains highlighted in Figure the population in terms of socio-economic conditions. 1. Thereafter, estimates of a few monetary costs are provided for some of these potential impacts. The study provides global The estimation of the potential impacts of low educational results from the analysis for multiple domains. More details on attainment for girls is based on regression analysis and is regional findings and methodological approaches by domain or subject to two important caveats. First, estimates from sub-domain will be made available separately. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 10 BOX 3: WHY DO GIRLS DROP OUT OF SCHOOL? This study is about the potential impacts of low educational attainment for girls, not the reasons why girls drop out of school prematurely. It is useful to note however that these reasons are multiple. When parents are asked in surveys why their daughters dropped out of school, issues related to the cost of schooling (which comprises both out-of- pocket and opportunity costs), early marriages and pregnancies, a lack of learning while in school, and a lack of interest in remaining in school often come up. In some countries, some factors play a larger role, while in other countries, other factors may be more prominent. But in many countries, even if this may not appear explicitly in survey responses by parents on reasons for girls dropping out, social norms and gender roles also affect the ability of girls to remain in school. This emerges clearly from qualitative work. In the case of Niger for example, ethnographic work suggest that six main obstacles lead most girls to not pursue their education beyond the primary level. 1. Poor learning outcomes and cost. Rural government schools are so poor in quality and resources that many children graduate from primary school without learning to read. The schools do not charge tuition, but parents complain that the cost of uniforms, guard fees, transport, lunches and the opportunity costs of losing their daughters’ labor are hardly worth the poor learning outcomes they see. 2. Failure at examinations. Students can only take the primary school completion exam twice. If they fail, they are ineligible to continue in public education. When girls fail examinations, parents say that they have little choice but to begin looking for a suitable suitor which their daughter could marry. 3. Lack of nearby secondary schools. Few rural communities have their own secondary school and there are few boarding schools serving communities. Parents must send their children to nearby towns and cover the costs of transportation and room and board. Students stay with relatives or contacts and parents are reluctant to leave their daughters without what they consider proper oversight. 4. Forced withdrawal of married adolescents. Once a girl is married, she is likely to be expelled from school. Husbands show little interest in supporting their adolescent wive’s education especially if they must enroll in a private school. This is an expense that they cannot afford. Conversely, the fear of not being allowed to withdraw their daughters from school for marriage is a complaint of some parents. 5. Never enrolling in school or enrolling too late. Some families never enroll girls in school, perhaps in part because parents had no educational opportunities themselves. In some cases, teachers may refuse to enroll children that are considered too old to start primary school. 6. Influence of relatives and demands on first daughters. Extended family members may influence parents on the value of educating girls, not always with positive outcomes. Schooling decisions may also depend on household composition and the activities of other children. Being the first daughter lessens a girl’s chances of going to school as they are expected to help their mother at home during the day. While finding solutions to keep girls in school and enabling them to learn while in school is necessarily context-specific, the literature suggests that various types of interventions and policies can work. These interventions are only discussed briefly in the conclusion to the study, but not in-depth here as this topic is the focus of separate work being conducted by the Education Global Practice at the World Bank. Source: Adapted from Perlman et al. (2018a, 2018b). 11 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 DOMAIN 1: EARNINGS models with and without additional controls apart from educational attainment and experience. The additional AND STANDARDS OF controls considered for this study are location (urban versus rural) and sector of activity (agriculture, industry, services, LIVING and others). These additional controls are limited due to the need to keep comparability across datasets between EARNINGS countries. While estimates obtained with these additional controls are not necessarily superior to those without The benefits from work in a person’s life go well beyond them, the availability of both types of estimates provides a earnings, but earnings are crucial for standards of living and useful robustness tests for the magnitude of the gains from for measuring the potential cost of not educating girls. There education. is a large literature on the potential impact of educational attainment on earnings that applies to boys and girls alike Table 1 provides the main results when only women are (see Psacharopoulos and Patrinos, 2018, for a recent review). included in the sample. Results with both women and men The benefits from educational attainment are typically included in the regression analysis were also obtained, but measured through regression analysis whereby the potential for this study the gains for the women sample are the most effect on earnings of educational attainment and experience relevant. Average gains from educational attainment are is estimated. In some models, the focus is the correlation computed treating all countries equally. In other words, a between years of schooling and earnings, and the implicit small country has the same weight as a large one, and poor gain associated with each additional year of schooling. Other and rich countries are also treated equally. The model with models look at the potential impact on earnings of different the years of education suggests that each year of additional levels of schooling, such as having a primary, secondary, or education is associated with an expected increase in earnings tertiary education. Apart from educational attainment, whether of 11.7 percent when no additional controls are included, and measured through years of schooling or in levels, the models 11.1 percent with controls for location and sector of activity. may also control for other variables that may affect earnings. The estimates are similar to those obtained previously with the same data (Patrinos and Montenegro, 2014), albeit a bit For this study, we provide estimates of the potential impact higher than typically observed in the literature. Although of educational attainment on earnings using a large database this is not shown in the Table, in general across countries the of household and labor surveys available at the World Bank potential impacts of education are slightly higher for women (see Appendix 1 on data sources). Models with years of only than for women and men together. This may be in part education as well as educational attainment in levels are because the point of comparison – women with no education considered. When educational attainment is measured in at all – have low earnings, so gains in percentage terms are levels, all individuals with some primary education or primary computed from a low base. education completed but no education at a higher level are combined in a single category for primary education. The earnings gain per additional year of education for women The same is done for secondary and tertiary education. In is large, but the estimation with the years of education other words, we do not distinguish whether individuals have implicitly assumes that all years of education have the completed or not a specific cycle of study. This is done due to same market value. As shown in Table 1, the estimates with data limitations and comparability issues between countries, educational attainment in levels suggest that this is not and the fact that the analysis is conducted for up to 126 the case. For women with primary education (partial or different countries depending on the model used. When completed), the average expected gain in earnings versus no doing work for a single country or a few countries, it is easier education is only 19.3 percent when no additional controls and good practice to disaggregate levels of education further are included, and 14.4 percent with additional controls. By (this is what we do in the analysis of Demographic and Health contrast, as shown in Figure 2, for women with secondary Surveys for this study, as will be shown below). education, the average gain is much larger at 96.6 percent with no additional controls and 78.4 percent with additional To test for robustness, we estimate models for men and controls. Finally, for women with tertiary education, the women together, and only for women. We also estimate average gain is at 323.4 percent without additional controls and 270.2 percent with additional controls. Clearly, women JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 12 with primary education earn only marginally more than supply side, workers with primary education may not have those with no education, while women with secondary the skills that they should have, such as basic literacy and education could expect to make almost twice as much numeracy given the failure of education systems in the as those with no education, and women with tertiary developing world to ensure these foundational skills. As education almost four times as much. noted in the most recent World Development Report (World Bank, 2018), education systems especially in Why are the gains from primary education so small? developing countries are witnessing a learning crisis Both demand and supply factors may be at work. On whereby enrollment and attendance in school do not the demand side, employers may require workers to have ensure that sufficient learning is taking place. skills that a primary education does not provide. On the Table 1: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Earnings for Women Years of Education Education Levels Women only sample (up to 126 Countries) (up to 96 Countries) Years of Primary Secondary Tertiary Education (vs. No Education) (vs. No Education) (vs. No Education) No additional controls 0.117 0.193 0.966 3.234 With location and sectoral controls 0.111 0.144 0.784 2.702 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from the World Bank’s I2D2 database. Note: : Reported estimates based on the average value of regression coefficients across counties. The exponential transformation (given that the dependent variable is the logarithm of earnings) is taken for the average coefficient. The model with location and sectoral controls is estimated for a slightly smaller number of countries. Figure 2: Potential Gains in Earnings by Education Level (versus No Education) 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Primary Secondary Tertiary No additional controls With location and sectoral controls Source: Authors. The Figure displays average marginal potential impacts. 13 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 When assessing the potential cost of not educating girls, it education. Results for the models with additional controls are is important to consider not only the gains from educational very similar. Note that from Table 1, the potential individual attainment, but also the proportion of girls or women in any gains from 12 years of schooling (12 times the annual gains) country that have a low level of education. The potential cost are slightly larger than the gains from secondary education of low educational attainment for girls and women depends in the model in levels. This is as expected, since again the indeed on both the magnitude of the gains from education, secondary education category in Table 1 for the model and the share of women who have low levels of education. in levels combines women with partial and completed What could be the gains in earnings that could be expected secondary schooling, while 12 years of education corresponds nationally if all women who have no education where to in most countries to the completion of secondary education, acquire a primary education, and if all women who have thus generating higher gains. less than a secondary education would be able to achieve that level of education? Table 2 provides the estimations, With the model with the years of education without controls considering all women who work whether they are wage for location and the sector of activity, if all women were to earners or not (imputations of expected wages or earnings have at least six years of education, on average their earnings are done when women work but do not declare wages or could increase by 8.9 percent on average across countries. earnings in the survey). With nine years of education, the increase could be at 21.0 percent, and with 12 years, the gain could be at 44.8 percent. In Table 2, countries are treated equally, so the results do The increases are smaller than the (marginal) potential not account for population size or the fact that the level of impacts reported in Table 1 in part because in the simulations, earnings is different in different countries. Results that factor only a subset of women are assumed to have higher in both population sizes and differences in earnings between education levels and thereby higher earnings. For women countries will be discussed later in this study, when providing who already have six, nine, or twelve years of education, dollar values for the global potential cost of not educating no change in earnings is assumed. No simulations are girls. Here, the focus is on what gains in percentage terms implemented for earnings with universal tertiary education, from higher educational attainment girls and women may but such simulations will be implemented for other outcomes expect in an average country in the sample, assuming - this below. is important, that an influx of better educated women in the labor market would not affect the gains from education (see In low income countries where few women have a secondary Box 4). education, the gains are larger. In developed countries where most women already have a secondary education, they are The focus for the simulations in table 2 is on the model with smaller. The estimates in Table 2 are averages across a wide years of education and no additional controls, as this is the range of counties. But the results confirm that earnings gains model used later to compute global economic losses from from universal secondary education could be large, while not educating girls up to the completion of secondary school. gains from universal primary education could be smaller. The reliance on this model stems from the fact that we can Note also that the gains provided here pertain to women assess gains from the completion of universal secondary only, not the whole labor force. As a percentage of the entire education (12 years of schooling), while the model in levels labor earnings of countries including men, the gains would be combines the categories of partial and completed secondary smaller. Table 2: Simulated Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Earnings Nationally (%) Years of Education Women only sample (126 Countries) At Least 6 Years At Least 9 Years At Least 12 Years No additional controls 8.9 21.0 44.8 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from the World Bank’s I2D2 database. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 14 BOX 4: LIMITATIONS OF THE METHOD USED TO COMPUTE POTENTIAL EARNINGS GAINS The estimation of the potential gains in earnings for women in Table 2 implicitly assumes that labor markets would be able to absorb a larger supply of better educated women. Specifically, the assumption is that gains from educational attainment for women would not decrease once more women become better educated. For simulations related to universal primary and secondary education, this may not be a major issue in high and many upper middle-income countries where only a relatively small share of women have less than a primary or secondary education. But the assumption is more problematic in low and lower middle-income countries where many women have low levels of educational attainment and sample selection as well as general equilibrium issues are likely to be more acute. The estimation also does not consider potential effects on men of rising educational attainment for women. Men’s earnings may decrease if women are better educated and have access to the same employment opportunities as men, resulting in reductions in occupational segregation by gender that has traditionally led to higher earnings for men. There is substantial evidence that over time, labor market premiums associated with higher levels of educational attainment may be reduced once more workers have those higher levels of education. Angrist (1995) showed that the expansion of access to education in the Palestinian territories led to a reduction in the skills premium. Acemoglu et al. (2004) note that during World War II, higher labor force participation by women depressed wages for low skilled workers. Duflo (2004) suggests similar effects in Indonesia after a large school construction program. These are just a few examples of studies that document general equilibrium effects which, as noted by Acemoglu (2010), may be large (for a recent study focusing on one sector, see Qvist et al., 2016, on engineers). Since we do not account for potential general equilibrium effects on both men and women of improvements in educational attainment for women, the estimates in Table 2 could be considered as an upper bound of the gains that could be achieved from better educational opportunities for women. However, other factors could lead to larger gains than those reported here, for at least two reasons. First, the estimation for earnings does not factor in the potential effect of higher educational attainment for women on their labor force participation. As shown in the next section, with higher educational attainment, the opportunity cost for women of not working increases, which may lead more women to enter the labor force, thereby generating even larger earnings gains. In the simulations for earnings, we keep labor force participation constant. In addition, as women (and men) become better educated, this could transform economies especially in developing countries, leading to better jobs and more innovation. This in turn could generate higher rates of economic growth. Through multiplier effects, unleashing women’s earnings potential through better educational opportunities could generate even larger gains for both men and women than suggested here. We also do not account for intergenerational benefits from unleashing women’s earnings potential through better education for their children. As a result, in the long run, gains could be larger than suggested by wage regressions capturing current conditions. In that case, the estimation could perhaps be considered as a lower bound of potential gains. Given these issues, to be conservative in the estimates of the aggregate potential benefits from higher educational attainment for girls, we will consider later in this study a baseline scenario that relies on estimates provided in Table 2, and a second scenario whereby only half of the benefits are obtained. This could happen if the economy fails to grow at a rate that can generate sufficient jobs to absorb the more educated women entering the labor market, and/or if the educational expansion were to negatively affect education quality due to the lack of adequate investments in inputs required to ensure learning. 15 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION a secondary or tertiary education in comparison to having primary education or less. Table 3 and Figure 3 provide the Apart from leading to higher expected earnings for working potential effects. When women have a secondary education women, a higher level of educational attainment may also level, they are 9.6 percentage points more likely to work than increase their labor force participation or the number of if they only have a primary education or less. With tertiary hours that women work. When women are better educated, education, the potential effect on labor force participation is the opportunity cost of not working or only working part an even larger gain at the margin of 25.4 percentage points time increases, which may lead more women to enter the in comparison to a primary education or less. As women with labor force, or work full time instead of part time. higher levels of education are more likely to enter the labor force, this may result in increases in the likelihood of working To measure the potential effect of educational attainment full time, working part-time, or being unemployed. In terms on labor force participation, we rely on data from the Gallup of type of employment, the largest increase at the margin World Poll for many countries (see Appendix 1 on data from more education is for full-time work. There is also an sources). With the Gallup World Poll, we can look at the increase for part time work and unemployment, but to a potential impact on women’s employment status of having lower extent and this is not always statistically significant. Table 3: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Labor Force Participation for Women Women only sample Secondary (vs. Primary) Tertiary (vs. Primary) Labor force participation 0.096 0.254 Working full-time 0.090 0.256 Working part-time NS 0.005 Being unemployed 0.008 NS Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from the Gallup World Poll. Note: Regression estimates reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that an estimate is not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Figure 3: Potential Gains in Labor force participation (versus Primary Education) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Secondary Tertiary Labor force participation Working full-time Source: Authors. The Figure displays marginal potential impats with pooled data. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 16 Given the estimates of potential impacts provided in Table columns reproduce the same calculations under a scenario 3, what could be the potential effect of universal secondary of universal tertiary education. Globally, with universal or tertiary education on labor force participation, and secondary education, there could be an increase of 3.9 more precisely on full-time work, part-time work, and percentage points in the share of women in the labor force, unemployment? The answer is provided in Table 4. The which could represent an increase of 8.4 percent versus the second column in the Table provides the baseline value of base. With universal tertiary education, the gain in labor each indicator. The next column provides the simulated value force participation could be at 16.7 percentage points, a jump of each indicator under universal secondary education. This from the base of 34.4 percent. Most of these gains in labor is followed in the next column by the increase or decrease in force participation could translate into full-time work. percentage terms of the indicator versus its base. The last two Table 4: Simulated Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Labor Force Participation (%) Baseline Universal Proportional Universal Proportional Women only sample Estimate Secondary Change Tertiary Change Labor force participation 48.4 52.5 8.4 65.1 34.4 Working full-time 30.6 34.6 13.2 47.5 55.4 Working part-time 13.1 NS NS 13.6 4.0 Being unemployed 4.7 5.1 8.3 NS NS Source: Authors based on Gallup World Poll data. Note: Simulations reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that a simulation is not shown because the coefficient was not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. 17 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 PERCEPTIONS OF STANDARDS OF LIVING Due to data limitations to do this well for a large number of countries, this study does not provide measures of the By increasing earnings and labor force participation for potential impact of educational attainment on monetary women in adulthood, higher levels of educational attainment poverty. These potential effects are likely to be large contribute to poverty reduction in the future in several ways. (UNESCO, 2017). Not only does low educational Poverty is usually measured by comparing a household’s attainment reduce earnings for women, but it is also level of income or consumption per capita (or per equivalent associated with higher fertility as will be discussed later in this adult) with a poverty line that captures the resources note. The combination of low earnings and high needs given needed by households to meet their basic needs. The most larger household size can be devastating. Not being able to important pathways for potential impact are therefore provide for one’s own children is perhaps one of the most likely to be related to (1) higher earnings and consumption severe forms of deprivation. for women and their household; and (2) a reduction in household size and household needs through lower fertility. Using data from the Gallup World Poll, we do however Higher educational attainment for women helps not only by estimate the potential impact of the level of women’s increasing the numerator (higher income or consumption), educational attainment on two types of perceptions: but also by reducing the denominator (smaller household the perceptions of their own standard of living, and the size). perceptions of whether economic conditions are improving or favorable. The potential effects are documented in Table 5. For example, when women have a secondary education level, they are seven percentage points more likely to state that they have enough money to buy food in comparison to women who have only a primary education or less. With tertiary education, the potential effect for the perceived ability to satisfy food needs is a gain at the margin of 12 The hardest thing about being a percentage points in comparison to a primary education or parent is that you do not have less. what you need to support your children. One would like to give It should be emphasized that individuals with higher levels of educational attainment have on average higher expectations them the best of the world, what for their own standards of living. This implies that if we had they deserve to live well, to have been able to measure potential impacts of educational good food, clothes, notebooks so attainment on objective standards of living, the potential that they can study and become impacts would probably have been larger. This was the someone. One gets up every day case when looking at the potential effect of more years of schooling on earnings in the previous section. Also, the thinking how am I going to do it? potential effects reported for educational attainment in Table ... But sometimes, you have to go 5 are obtained after controlling for other factors that could to bed with only one meal. affect perceptions of standards of living, including the level of per capita income of the woman and her employment SOURCE: PLAN INTERNACIONAL REPÚBLICA status. We report here only the direct potential effect of DOMINICACA (2017) educational attainment on perceptions of standards of living, not including additional indirect potential effects that could logically come from higher per capita income as well as a better employment status. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 18 All measured potential effects of secondary or tertiary affects also perceptions of economic conditions more education in comparison to lower levels of education in Table generally, apart from perceptions of one’s own standard of 5 are positive and statistically significant. The magnitude living. This could suggest that when economic conditions are of the potential effects tends to be larger for perceptions good, better educated women have more opportunities to of women’s own standards of living than for perceptions of take advantage of these opportunities than women who have economic conditions more generally. This is what one would primary education or less. expect. But it is interesting that educational attainment Table 5: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Women’s Perceptions of Standard of Living Women only sample Secondary (vs. Primary) Tertiary (vs. Primary) Perceptions of own standard of living Not having enough money for food -0.07 -0.12 Not having enough money for shelter -0.03 -0.06 Satisfied with standard of living 0.02 0.07 Perceptions of changes in conditions Found economic condition better 0.01 0.03 Good time to find jobs 0.004 0.01 Better standard of living 0.04 0.06 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from the Gallup World Poll. Note: Regression estimates reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that an estimate is not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Given the estimates of potential impacts provided in Table share of women declaring that they do not have enough 5, what could be the potential effect of universal secondary money for food (a reduction of 12.0 percent versus the or tertiary education on perceptions of standards of living? base). With universal tertiary education, there could be a The answer is provided in Table 6. As was the case for Table reduction of 8.1 percentage points in the share of women 4, the second column provides the baseline value of each feeling that they do not have enough money for food, which indicator, while the next four columns provide the results of would represent a reduction from the base of 29.0, percent. the simulations, both in absolute and proportionate terms. By contrast, potential effects are smaller on perceptions Different orders of magnitudes are observed for the various of whether economic conditions are favorable, but this was indicators. Globally, with universal secondary education, to be expected. As mentioned earlier, one would expect there could be a reduction of 3.4 percentage points in the potential impacts on perceptions of standards of living to indeed be larger than on perceptions of changes in economic opportunities. 19 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 Table 6: Simulated Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Perceptions of Standard of Living (%) Baseline Universal Proportional Universal Proportional Women only sample Estimate Secondary Change Tertiary Change Perceptions of own standard of living Not having enough money for food 28.0 24.6 -12.0 19.9 -29.0 Not having enough money for shelter 20.9 19.3 -7.7 16.7 -20.3 Satisfied with Standard of Living 64.1 65.2 1.6 68.9 7.5 Perceptions of changes in conditions Found economic condition better 64.5 65.3 1.1 66.5 3.0 Good time to find jobs 36.8 37.0 0.6 37.3 1.3 Better standard of living 47.6 49.3 3.7 51.1 7.5 Source: Authors based on Gallup World Poll data. Note: Simulations reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that a simulation is not shown because the coefficient was not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 20 DOMAIN 2: CHILD marry early when they are not in school because of a concern that she may otherwise engage in sexual activity. In many MARRIAGE AND EARLY contexts, a pregnancy outside of marriage may lead to ostracism for the girl, thereby fundamentally affecting her CHILDBEARING prospects in life. For many parents, the decision to marry their daughter is taken to protect her. There is a strong mutual relationship between girls’ education and child marriage, defined as a girl entering in a formal For girls themselves, when education and employment or informal union before the age of 18. Child marriage is opportunities are limited, staying idle at home may not be a one of the main factors leading girls to drop out of school good option. Some girls may also drop out of school because prematurely in many low-income countries (e.g., Field and they want to get married. Overall, while there is no doubt Ambrus, 2008; Nguyen and Wodon, 2014). Conversely, that many girls are forced to marry early against their will, keeping girls in (secondary) school helps in reducing child ending child marriage is probably at the global level less a marriage. Especially in countries where the prevalence of matter of preventing parents from forcing their daughter to child marriage is high, parents often have their daughter marry early, than a matter of providing viable alternatives to an early marriage for parents and girls alike. In this respect, enrollment in school is often the best alternative to early marriage. Recognizing that keeping girls in school is key to end child marriage does not mean that other types of interventions and policies – such as setting the minimal I felt a sharp pain in my lower ab- legal age for marriage at 18, are not needed. Child marriage is a deeply rooted social norm. The practice needs to be domen and noticed that my skirt addressed through multifaceted interventions. But offering was stained with blood… I rushed alternatives like a quality education for girls is essential. to my mother. She smiled and held my hand and explained menstrua- Keeping girls in school is also crucial to reduce teen pregnancies (with or without marriage) and early tion. When my father came home childbearing, defined as a girl having her first child before the that night, he called me and asked age of 18. Previous work on the economic impacts of child if I had a suitor. I told him no. Af- marriage at the World Bank (Wodon et al., forthcoming) ter some days my mother told me suggests that for a group of 25 developing countries that I was to be married. I knew accounting for most instances of child marriage and early childbearing in the world, three in four women (75 percent) that there would be merriment and who have their first child before the age of 18 did so because that I would be bought clothes, of child marriage. In addition, more than four in five children shoes, a bed, and a chest of draw- (84 percent) born of mothers younger than 18 are due to ers. I was happy about this but sad child marriage. In other words, if keeping girls is essential for that I would be leaving my fam- ending child marriage, it should also be beneficial for reducing teen pregnancies and early childbearing quite substantially1. ily to live at my future husband’s home. I wanted to stay in school. Analysis with Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data But I could not disobey my father. confirms the importance of keeping girls in school to end child marriage and reduce early childbearing. The results SOURCE: PERLMAN ET AL. (2018B). are provided in Table 7 for 15 developing countries. The estimation is based on an instrumental variable technique, and potential impacts are statistically significant for all 1 There are differences between and within countries in the relationship between child marriage and early childbirths. Especially in Latin America and parts of sub-Saharan Africa, there appears to be a trend towards earlier sexual activity along with an increase in the average age at first marriage, suggesting a reduction over time in the connection between marriage and sexual activity as well as early childbearing. 21 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 countries in the case of child marriage, and 14 of the 15 for the risk of having a first child before age 18. With several countries in the case of early childbearing. Each additional years of education, the reductions in risks of child marriage year a girl completes in secondary school reduces the and early childbearing are larger correspondingly. Keeping likelihood of marrying as a child on average by 6.1 percentage girls in school is not the only strategy that is required to end points across the 15 developing countries. The potential child marriage and early childbearing, but it clearly is a major impact is similar with a reduction of 5.8 percentage points contributor to both goals. Table 7: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Child Marriage and Early Childbearing Reduction in risk per additional year of secondary education Reduction in risk of child marriage -0.061 Reduction in risk of early childbearing -0.058 Source: Authors based on Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates based on country-level analysis for 15 developing countries. All estimated potential impacts are statistically significant except for one country for early childbearing. These results should not be too surprising. Reviews of that all groups are mutually exclusive and account for 100 the literature suggests that interventions to promote percent of the population of girls age 15 to 19. The last group education are among the most likely to help reduce child in the Table is girls who are married and in school. That group marriage and early childbearing. These interventions tend accounts for only 2.4 percent of the total, and most of the to work better than interventions focusing only on ‘safe girls in that group are 18 or 19 years of age. This very simple spaces’ or interventions aiming to empower adolescent statistics shows how very few girls get married as children girls economically. As an additional piece of evidence on when they manage to remain in school, and conversely how the crucial role of keeping girls in school to reduce child hard it is to remain in school when married. In most cases, marriage and thereby early childbearing, consider Table 8 this results from social norms and other constraints within and Figure 4 which provide a typology of girls according to households that make it very difficult for girls to go back to various categories. The typology was initially proposed to school when married or pregnant, but unfortunately in some identify target groups for interventions adapted to the needs countries, government or school policies preventing married of each group. But for this study, simply consider the fact or pregnant girls to return to school exacerbate the issue. Table 8: Typology of Adolescent Girls by Age, School Enrollment, and Marriage Status Group Share (%) In school, not married, ages 15-16 26.5 In school, not married, ages 17-19 20.5 Out of school, not married, ages 15-16 12.5 Married, not in school, any age 23.4 Out of school, not married 17-19 years 14.7 Married and in school, any age 2.4 Total 100.0 Source: Authors. Statistical analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Average statistical estimates for 15 developing countries. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 22 Figure 4: Typology of Adolescent Girls Aged 15-19 (Share of Girls in Each Group) 2% 27% In school, not married, ages 15-16 15% 13% Out of school, not married, ages 15-16 27% 21% In school, not married, ages 17-19 23% 15% Out of school, not married, ages 17-19 21% 23% Married, not in school, any age 13% 2% Married and in school, any age Source: Authors. Average shares for 15 developing countries. Dropping out of school, having a child at a young age or data to measure the benefits from educating girls, we will marrying as a child can all have long lasting negative impacts highlight both the direct potential impact of educational (see Box 5). The close relationship between educational attainment on development outcomes, and the additional attainment for girls, child marriage, and early childbearing indirect potential impact that would result from the fact has implications for the analysis conducted in the rest of this that universal secondary education could virtually end report. Ending child marriage and early childbearing would child marriage. Said differently, when considering universal not be sufficient to ensure that all girls are able to complete secondary education, we get two benefits: the direct benefit their secondary school. However, ensuring that all girls can from educational attainment, and the additional benefit from complete their secondary education could lead to a virtual ending child marriage, or in some cases (for child health) the elimination of child marriage and a dramatic reduction in indirect benefit from reduced early childbearing. early childbearing. In subsequent sections, when using DHS 23 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 BOX 5: LONG-LASTING IMPACTS OF DROPPING OUT OF SCHOOL AND EARLY CHILDBEARING Susan was 18 years old at the time she was interviewed. Her mother had died. With one sister and four brothers, she lived with her father. She started school at six years of age and dropped out last year because she became pregnant at the age of 17. She was still in primary school. She had dropped out previously to help her mother who was bed-ridden just before she died. At that time, she was in the third year of primary school. She now works as a casual laborer in people’s gardens, earning about 8,000 shillings a week. Payment is usually in cash, but at times in kind with sorghum or millet to bring back home. She uses her earnings to buy essential things for the home such as soap, salt, sugar, and food. The challenge she faces now is that she cannot work effectively because she is pregnant and sickly. Yet, she is still supposed to look after her siblings. In her assessment, gardening is much tougher than school, but she is emphatic that “I cannot go back to school any more. I just want to take care of my young siblings and see them through primary school, and if possible up to secondary school.” Support that could help her realize her wish of a better education for her siblings could be seed money to help her start an income generating activity, again to help her siblings complete school. Source: Wodon et al. (2016). and Wodon (2018). The analysis estimates the potential DOMAIN 3: FERTILITY AND impact of educational attainment and child marriage on total fertility. It also considers what total fertility could be under POPULATION GROWTH better educational outcomes (specifically, universal primary and secondary education scenarios) and if child marriage TOTAL FERTILITY were to be eliminated. Because the models consider the number of children that women have towards the end of There is a strong relationship between girls’ educational their reproductive life, they account implicitly for desired attainment, the risk of child marriage, and women’s total or fertility and substitution effects in the timing of birth when lifetime fertility. Women who drop out of school prematurely considering the implications of ending child marriage or are more likely to marry as children, as mentioned in the achieving universal primary or secondary education. previous section. Low educational attainment and child marriage may both lead women to have children earlier in life, Results are provided in Table 9 for educational attainment and more children over their lifetime. The potential impact and Table 10 for child marriage. In Table 9, the second on total fertility – the number of children that women have column indicates the number of countries for which a given towards the end of their reproductive age, may be large2. The level of educational attainment is associated in the regression factors leading to fertility are complex. The analysis in this analysis with a statistically significant reduction in total section does not look at all these factors comprehensively, fertility. The potential effects are measured versus women but it provides insights into the specific role that educational who have no education at all or less than primary completed. attainment and child marriage may play. These roles are For example, for seven out of 18 countries, a primary estimated using Poisson regressions with DHS data for 18 education completed is associated with a reduction in total developing countries using a model adapted from Onagoruwa fertility that is statistically significant, while this is the case 2 The term “total fertility” is defined in this study as the number of live births that a woman has over her lifetime. This definition is needed for individual-level econometric work to measure the (marginal) impact of child marriage on fertility. By contrast traditional “total fertility rates” are population-level estimates. Our definition of “total fertility” is thus similar, but not exactly the same as “total fertility rates” traditionally measured. The econometric analysis is conducted for women ages 35-49 for sample size considerations (this may underestimate total fertility somewhat, as women may still have children after the age of 35). JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 24 for all 18 countries with higher education. The next column simulation, for the seven countries where primary education simply provides the share of countries for which a statistically is found to have a potential impact on total fertility, all significant potential effect is measured. The following column women who did not complete their primary education are provides the average potential impact for all countries where assumed to have that level of schooling. This is the universal the potential effect is statistically significant. For example, primary scenario. In the second simulation, all women are having a completed secondary education is associated assumed to have their secondary education completed – the with a reduction in total fertility in 17 of the 18 countries universal secondary simulation. Under universal primary, in comparison to no education or incomplete primary, and there could be a reduction in the average number of children on average, the reduction in fertility is estimated at 23.5 that all women in seven countries have (including women percent in these 17 countries. These potential impacts are with higher levels of education) of 0.30 child over the visualized in Figure 5. women’s lifetime. This is a reduction from current levels of fertility of 5.5 percent on average in the 18 countries. Under The message from Table 9 is clear: controlling for other universal secondary education, the reduction in total fertility factors that may affect total fertility, a higher level of nationally is estimated at 1.26 child per woman on average educational attainment is associated with a substantial in the 17 countries where potential impacts are found to be reduction in lifetime fertility, with the potential impact being statistically significant. This could be a reduction from the larger when the level of educational attainment increases. base of 22.3 percent. The last two columns in the Table provide results for expected national fertility rates under two simulations. In the first Table 9: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Women’s Total Fertility and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential Impacts versus Less National Simulated Potential Impacts than Primary Completed Universal Primary Universal Secondary Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Primary Completed 7 39 -7.1 0.30 5.5 Some Secondary 14 78 -14.2 - - Secondary Completed 17 94 -23.5 1.26 22.3 Higher Education 18 100 -32.1 - - Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 18 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. Figure 5: Potential Reduction in Total Fertility (versus Less than Primary Completed) Primary Completed Some Secondary Secondary Completed Higher Education 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: Authors. The Figure displays average marginal potential impacts. 25 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 Two conclusions emerge from the analysis. The first fertility of 0.51 child per woman nationally, which could conclusion is that completing the secondary education lead to an additional reduction in the total fertility rate at level is found to have a potential impact on total fertility in the country level of 9.6 percent. What the analysis thereby virtually all countries, while completing primary education suggests is that universal secondary education could lead to a is found to have a statistically significant potential impact in reduction in total fertility in the 18 countries considered for only a third of the countries. The second conclusion is that the analysis of about a third (22.3 percent in Table 9 plus 9.6 when potential impacts are statistically significant, they are percent in Table 10 if child marriage were to be eliminated, much larger at the secondary than at the primary level. In for a total of 31.9 percent). other words, ensuring universal primary education is unlikely to be sufficient to accelerate the demographic transition in countries with high fertility rates. By contrast, enabling girls to complete their secondary education would probably have a much larger potential impact. In fact, the difference in the potential impacts of primary and secondary education on lifetime fertility is even higher than suggested in Table 9. This is because if girls could complete their secondary education, they would be unlikely to marry as children. Table 9 provides only the direct potential impacts of educational attainment on lifetime fertility. For girls completing their secondary education, we should also include the indirect potential impacts through the elimination of child marriage. These indirect potential impacts are shown in Table 10 for the case of child marriage according to the age at first marriage. For example, marrying at age 13 instead of after age 18 leads in all 18 countries to statistically significant increases in total fertility, with the average potential impact across countries estimated at 26.3 percent more children over the woman’s lifetime. If child marriage were ended, which could virtually be the case with universal secondary education, there could be an additional reduction in total Table 10: Potential Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Total Fertility and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Marrying at 18+ Elimination of Child Marriage Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Marrying at 12 17 94 24.6 Marrying at 13 18 100 26.3 Marrying at 14 18 100 24.2 Combined effect: Combined effect: Marrying at 15 18 100 19.2 0.51 9.6 Marrying at 16 18 100 19.8 Marrying at 17 17 94 16.5 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 18 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 26 MODERN CONTRACEPTIVE USE percentage terms if universal primary or secondary education were achieved and if child marriage were to be eliminated. Part of the potential effect of educational attainment and child marriage on total fertility may come from the Consider first the results for educational attainment in Table use of modern contraceptive methods since such use 11. As was observed for total fertility, the potential impact of tends to increase with higher educational attainment and primary education is less often statistically significant versus when women do not marry as children, at least in some a lower level of education than is the case for secondary countries. This relates to family planning and issues of sexual education. In addition, when potential effects are statistically reproductive health and rights as well as agency for girls and significant, they are much larger for secondary than for women. primary education. This translates into larger national increases in modern contraception use with higher levels To measure the potential effect of educational attainment of educational attainment. For example, under universal and child marriage on modern contraceptive use, probit secondary education, the increase in modern contraception regressions are used with DHS data for the same group use nationally is estimated at 5.20 percent on average for of 18 developing countries. Results are provided in Tables the seven countries where potential impacts are found to be 11 and 12. The Tables provide estimates of the average statistically significant. This could be an increase from the potential impact at the margin of educational attainment by base in modern contraceptive use of 26.7 percent in those level and of child marriage according to the specific age at countries (the baseline estimates of the share of women using which women got married. For educational attainment, the modern contraceptives tends to be low in those countries, so coefficients estimates are statistically significant for about that even a limited absolute increase results in a substantial half of the countries, while for child marriage this is the case increase in percentage terms from the base). in about a third of the countries. As done for total fertility in the previous section, the Tables also provide estimates of Recall again that when achieving universal secondary simulated potential impacts nationally both in absolute and education, child marriage could be drastically reduced, if not Table 11: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Women’s Contraceptive Use and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Less than Primary Completed Universal Primary Universal Secondary Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Primary completed 4 22 3.8 1.75 6.5 Some secondary 11 61 4.4 Secondary completed 7 39 6.0 5.20 26.7 Higher education 10 56 4.5 - - Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 18 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. 27 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 eliminated. This could lead to additional potential effects, effects are observed, in that the average potential impacts but in the case of modern contraceptive use, the direction are sometimes negative, and sometime positive. When of these potential effects is not clear à priori. Marrying early girls marry very early, this is associated with a reduction in may reduce contraceptive use if women are not able to rely contraceptive use, but when they marry at age 15, 16, or 17, on contraception in their household. There may however this is associated with an increase in contraceptive use later in also be cases where child marriage may be associated with an life. Overall, the estimates of the combined potential effects increase in contraceptive use later in life, presumably because suggest that ending child marriage could result in a very small when women have reached their desired fertility (which increase in contraceptive use across the 18 countries. These may be earlier if they marry early), they may want to rely potential effects are small in comparison to those observed on contraception more. As shown in Table 12, both potential for educational attainment in Table 11. Table 12: Potential Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Modern Contraceptive Use and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Marrying at 18+ Elimination of Child Marriage Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Marrying at 12 10 56 -1.4 Marrying at 13 5 28 1.2 Marrying at 14 10 56 -0.3 Combined effect: Combined effect: Marrying at 15 5 28 4.4 -0.20 -0.12 Marrying at 16 4 22 2.3 Marrying at 17 5 28 5.0 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 18 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. POPULATION GROWTH To what extent does low educational attainment for girls contribute to high population growth? This is a complex Through its potential impact on total fertility, a lack of question as the potential impact of educational attainment educational attainment for girls may contribute to higher may change over time as it depends, among other factors, population growth. In some contexts, especially in low on the age structure of the population and age-specific income countries with limited arable land or water, high fertility rates that may also change over time. Demographic population growth may threaten long-term prosperity projection tools can however help in providing a tentative and exacerbate competition for access to scarce natural answer. Building on previous work on the potential impact of resources. High population growth may also weaken the child marriage and early child-bearing on population growth, ability of governments to provide basic services of sufficient estimations are based on a parametrization of demographic quality to their growing population, among others in the projection tools (DemProj and FamPlan) using data from the areas of education, health, nutrition, and basic infrastructure most recent DHS surveys. The advantage of these tools is (including electricity, water and sanitation, transport, that they rely on age-specific fertility rates, which is exactly connectivity, and more). what is needed when simulating the potential impact of ending child marriage and early childbearing since these are age-specific, affecting girls aged below 18. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 28 The approach used for this study consists of reporting results universal secondary education, the average potential effect obtained for child marriage and early childbearing, and could be at 0.42 percentage points. As with other estimates, simply scaling those results up or down to account for the this is meant to provide only an order of magnitude of potential impact on total fertility rates of universal primary potential effects. The potential effects could be larger or or secondary education in comparison to the potential smaller using alternative estimation methods, but they are impact of child marriage. The analysis is conducted for 18 clearly large and could help usher the demographic dividend countries and average results across those countries are (see Box 6) in countries that have not yet benefited from it. reported. The results are provided in Table 13. On average across the 18 countries, the annual rate of growth in those In a subsequent section in this study, a valuation of the countries could be reduced by 0.18 percentage point if potential benefits from lower population growth will child marriage and early childbearing were eliminated. In be provided. This valuation is based not only on the 18 some countries, the potential effect is larger, as is the case countries for which estimates are provided in Table 13, but in Niger for example. In other countries, the potential effect more generally for a set of more than 100 countries using is smaller. Given the comparative potential effects on total extrapolations, and from there for the world. As will be fertility of child marriage and universal primary or secondary discussed later, the impact of universal secondary education education documented earlier, a straight extrapolation for for this larger set of countries is a bit smaller than the those countries suggests that the average potential impact estimate in Table 13 in part because when considering a larger of universal primary education on population growth across set of countries, the prevalence of child marriage and low the 18 countries could be at about 0.1 percentage point. For educational attainment is lower. Table 13: Simulated Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Population Growth Reduction in Annual Rate of Population Growth (Percentage Points) Estimates with demographic projection tools Ending child marriage and early childbearing -0.18 Estimates based on comparative potential impacts on fertility Universal primary education -0.10 Universal secondary education -0.42 Source: Authors. Note: Estimates based on analysis for 18 developing countries with extrapolations for more than 100 countries. 29 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 BOX 6: THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND While different definitions of the demographic dividend have been proposed, the term is associated with improvements in standards of living and accelerated economic growth when a developing country achieves a population structure that is favorable thanks to a reduction in birth (and death) rates that is followed by rapid fertility decline. As a result, the share of the population of working age individuals may increase sharply for a period of time, which tends to generate faster economic growth (e.g., Canning et al., 2015; World Bank, 2015). In addition, with lower dependency ratios, households are better able to support themselves and invest among others in education, nutrition, and health (or human capital broadly conceived). These investments in turn may lead younger generations to be better educated and more productive in adulthood. This demographic and human capital transition may help reduce poverty rates dramatically. Achieving universal secondary education for girls should help reduce population growth and improve skill levels in countries where fertility rates remain high, thereby helping to usher in the demographic dividend. DOMAIN 4: HEALTH, NUTRITION, AND WELL- BEING WOMEN’S HEALTH A lack of educational attainment for girls may have potential negative impacts on women’s health, simply because women may be less aware of how to take care of themselves when sick or injured. Low educational attainment may also lead to lack of knowledge about sexually transmitted diseases such as HIV/AIDS. In addition, through its potential impact on child marriage and early childbearing, a lack of educational attainment may lead girls to give birth at a young age, which in turn increases the risk of maternal mortality and morbidity (see Box 7). For example, a lack of physical maturity when giving birth may lead to complications such as obstructed or prolonged labor as well as fistula. Other risks related to low educational attainment and its implications for child marriage may include malnutrition, isolation, depression and an inability to negotiate sexual and reproductive behaviors with partners. This last risk can lead not only to exposure to sexually transmitted infections, but also to lower rates of modern contraceptive use which may lead to insufficient birth spacing, unwanted pregnancies, and abortions. Finally, as also noted in Box 7, lower educational attainment for girls is associated with substantially higher risks of suffering from intimate partner violence either directly or directly through child marriage. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 30 BOX 7: MATERNAL MORTALITY AND INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE There is a clear association between giving birth at a very early age and a higher risk of maternal mortality. This association emerges from quantitative analysis (Nove et al., 2014). It also emerges from qualitative work, as this quote for an ethnographer embedded in a village in Niger illustrates: “Maternal mortality is high. Two young women died in childbirth during the first week of our stay in the community. The first woman married at fourteen and had three children. She had complications during each previous delivery and died from post- partum hemorrhage a few hours after being rushed to the health center. The second was twelve years old when she married. She lost her first child at age fourteen and was advised to wait several years before trying again. Her last pregnancy came with a series of complications that finally claimed her life a week after delivery.” (Perlman et al., 2018b). Another way not explored in this specific study in which low educational attainment for women may influence health outcomes is through intimate partner violence (IPV). Estimates of the correlates of the risk of IPV by Savadogo and Wodon (2018) suggest that higher educational attainment tends to reduce risks of IPV for women. In addition, eliminating child marriage could also lead to a decline in IPV in many countries, although the potential impact is lower than for educational attainment. For this study, the focus is only on a few specific aspects Still with DHS data, we also look at whether women can of women’s health using both DHS data and the Gallup make their own decision on whether to seek healthcare World Poll. First, using DHS data, we look at whether higher when sick or injured, as opposed to asking permission to their educational attainment is associated with a more thorough husband or partner for obtaining such care. The literature knowledge of HIV/AIDS. To conduct the analysis, an index suggests that women’s choices are often constrained, for of knowledge of HIV/AIDS is created through principal example in terms of how/where to deliver a baby. Sometimes component analysis using a range of questions available in the husband or partner may make these decisions, or it may DHS surveys. The values of the index are normalized to take be made by the mother in law in some cultures. The same can a value between zero and 100. Results from the estimations be said about decisions for antenatal care, which impacts the are provided in Table 14 with a visualization of potential health and well-being of the mother and the future newborn. impacts in Figure 6. The potential effects of educational Table 14 suggests that again, potential effects of educational attainment on knowledge of HIV/AIDS are statistically attainment on decision-making are statistically significant in significant in most of the countries, and higher when women many countries. For secondary completion, potential effects have completed their secondary education than is the case are statistically significant in two thirds of the countries. In for primary education. Under universal secondary education, these countries, universal secondary education could increase there could be an increase in the index of knowledge of HIV/ the ability of women to make their own healthcare decisions AIDS nationally of 11 percentage points in the 14 countries by nine percentage points or just over twenty percent from where the potential effect is statistically significant. This is the base values. equivalent to an increase of twenty percent from the base value of the index. The potential effect is thus large and it underscores the value of education for knowledge. 31 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 Table 14: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Women’s Knowledge about HIV/AIDS and Decision-making Ability Regarding their Own Healthcare, and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Less than Primary Completed Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Knowledge about HIV/AIDS Primary completed 14 82 8.0 4.37 7.3 Some secondary 17 100 8.6 - - Secondary completed 14 82 14.3 10.91 20.4 Higher education 15 88 16.0 - - Own healthcare decisions Primary completed 8 44 3.0 1.10 0.3 Some secondary 12 67 7.5 - - Secondary completed 12 67 12.6 8.87 20.7 Higher education 17 94 17.2 - - Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 17 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. Figure 6: Potential Gains in Women’s Knowledge of HIV/AIDS and Healthcare Decision-making (versus Less than Primary Completed) Own Healthcare Decisions Primary Completed Some Secondary Secondary Completed Higher Education Knowledge about HIV/AIDS Primary Completed Some Secondary Secondary Completed Higher Education 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Source: Authors. The Figure displays average marginal potential impacts. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 32 Could universal secondary education generate additional decisions. As shown in Table 15, in most countries, child benefits for the above two indicators through the dramatic marriage does not appear to have a direct statistically reduction in child marriage that could ensue? While this was significant potential impact on knowledge of HIV/AIDS and the case for some of the indicators considered previously, it the ability for women to make their own healthcare decisions. does not seem to be the case for knowledge of HIV/AIDS Furthermore, even when statistically significant potential and the ability for women to make their own healthcare impacts are observed, their magnitude is much smaller than what is observed for secondary completion in Table 14. Table 15: Potential Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Knowledge about HIV/AIDS and Decision-making Ability Regarding their Own Healthcare, and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Marrying at 18+ Elimination of Child Marriage Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Knowledge about HIV/AIDS 4 24 -2.0 0.59 -0.05 Own healthcare decisions 2 11 5.0 -2.13 -3.65 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 18 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. Turning to data from the Gallup World Poll, the potential case increases by 17 percentage points when a woman has impact of educational attainment on psychological well- a tertiary education as opposed to a primary education or being is estimated for a dozen indicators. A total of five less. A tertiary education is also associated with a decrease positive and six negative outcomes are considered. As shown in the likelihood of feeling pain of nine percentage points in Table 16, in comparison to women with only a primary versus primary education or less. Note again, as was the education or less, a higher level of educational attainment case for perceptions of standards of living, that all these is systematically associated with an increase in positive potential effects are obtained after controlling for a wide outcomes, and a decrease in negative outcomes. Virtually range of other factors that may affect psychological well- all estimated potential impacts are statistically significant, being, including age, per capita income and employment and they are larger as expected with a tertiary education. status. Note also that the Poll does not have data on child The largest potential impact is observed for the question on marriage except for a few pilot countries, so that only the whether women learned or did something interesting in the direct potential effects of higher educational attainment on day preceding the interview. The likelihood that this is the psychological well-being is reported here. 33 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 Table 16: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Women’s Perceptions of Well-being and Simulations Women only sample Secondary (vs. Primary) Tertiary (vs. Primary) Positive Outcomes Felt well-rested yesterday 0.01 0.02 Had enjoyment yesterday 0.04 0.06 Laughed yesterday 0.02 0.04 Treated with respect yesterday 0.01 0.03 Learned/Did something interesting yesterday 0.07 0.17 Negative Outcomes Felt pain yesterday -0.06 -0.09 Felt worried yesterday -0.03 -0.02 Felt sad yesterday -0.04 -0.05 Felt stressed yesterday -0.02 NS Felt anger yesterday -0.02 -0.02 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from the Gallup World Poll. Note: Regression estimates reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that an estimate is not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. What could be the potential effect of universal secondary or tertiary education on psychological well-being for women? The results are reported in Table 17 in a format similar to what was done for perceptions of standards of living and labor force participation earlier. Different orders of magnitudes are again observed for the various indicators. For positive outcomes, the largest potential effects are observed with tertiary education for women who learned or did something interesting in the day preceding the interview. Globally, with universal tertiary education, there could be an increase of one fourth in the likelihood of learning or doing something interesting in the day preceding the interview. This is substantial given that the regression controls for a wide range of other factors that could affect such feelings. For some of the negative outcomes listed in the table, the potential impacts are also large in proportional terms, as is the case for feeling pain. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 34 Table 17: Simulated Potential Impacts of Educational Attainment on Perceptions of Well-being (%) Baseline Universal Proportional Universal Proportional Women only sample Estimate Secondary Change Tertiary Change Positive Outcomes Felt well-rested yesterday 70.2 70.7 0.7 71.2 1.4 Had enjoyment yesterday 73.0 75.0 2.9 76.9 5.4 Laughed yesterday 73.8 75.1 1.7 76.1 3.1 Treated with respect yesterday 86.0 86.9 1.1 88.6 3.1 Learned/Did something interesting 47.7 51.1 7.0 59.5 24.6 Negative Outcomes Felt pain yesterday 29.8 27.0 -9.5 24.3 -18.5 Felt worried yesterday 34.6 33.1 -4.2 33.5 -3.0 Felt sad yesterday 22.9 20.9 -8.4 19.8 -13.3 Felt stressed yesterday 30.6 29.8 -2.6 NS NS Felt anger yesterday 20.6 19.7 -4.2 18.8 -8.5 Source: Authors based on Gallup World Poll data. Note: Simulations reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that a simulation is not shown because the coefficient was not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. CHILDREN’S HEALTH AND SURVIVAL affects their risk of exposure to intimate partner violence and may result in mental health issues, this may generate Early childhood is critical for a child’s development (Black spillover effects for children. In harsh conditions, toxic stress et al., 2017). Poor conditions early in life affect brain responses on the part of children can have damaging effects development and capabilities, with lasting consequences in on learning, behavior, and health later in life. There is even adulthood, including for the ability to earn a decent wage. evidence that when children are exposed to intimate partner A lack of educational attainment for mothers may affect violence in utero, they tend on average to have worst health children’s health simply because better educated mothers at birth and increased mortality rates. may have a better understanding of what they need to do to care for their child when sick or injured. Through early For this study, we measure the potential impact of childbearing, child marriage may also affect the health educational attainment for mothers and early childbearing of both mothers and their children. When girls have not (which as mentioned earlier often results from child marriage matured yet, giving birth is risky. Furthermore, when in developing countries) on the risks for young children of mothers are poorly nourished, this may put their children dying by age five and being stunted. A child is considered at higher risk of intrauterine growth restriction. A mother stunted if she has a height more than two standard deviations herself may be stunted due to lack of food rather than the below the median reference height for her age. Stunting choice of it, and it is important to recall that stunting for often results from persistent insufficient nutrient intake young children may start during pregnancy. and infections. It may lead to delayed motor development and poor cognitive skills that can affect school performance When girls are not physically, emotionally, or even financially and productivity later in life. For this study, stunting is an ready to give birth, this may affect them, as is the case when important measure given its potential impact on earnings in they suffer from obstetric fistula, but it may also affect adulthood. their children (see the text box with a quote from a study of men living with wives suffering from obstetric fistula). Estimates of the potential impacts of a mother’s education Furthermore, as low education attainment for mothers level on the risks of under-five mortality and stunting are 35 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 My wife cannot control urine since her first delivery that resulted in the death of our first baby… She started labor at 5.00 pm. She spent the whole night at a local birth attendant’s home, who tried to assist but failed... We were very poor and had nothing… We used engozi [stretcher carried by four men] to the nearest road. The baby was lying with the head up and the legs coming first. As she pushed, the baby’s legs kept kicking her urinary bladder. Finally, there came a vehicle carrying charcoal and we hired it. We travelled about 40 km on top of the charcoal to Hoima hospital where she was oper- ated promptly but the baby had already died. SOURCE: BARAGEINE ET AL. (2026). provided in Table 18 after controlling for a wide range of other example, the estimates suggest that universal secondary factors that may affect those risks (see also Figure 7 in the education for girls could reduce stunting rates by more case of stunting). The analysis is based on DHS data for 18 than a third (38.3 percent) in the countries for which the developing countries. In the case of under-five mortality, estimations generated statistically significant potential potential effects are statistically significant for primary and impacts. Unexpectedly, for stunting the potential impact secondary education only in a handful of countries, and for higher education is smaller than for secondary the magnitude of those potential effects when statistically education. significant is similar for primary and secondary education. In the case of stunting, potential effects at the secondary level Universal secondary education for girls could virtually are statistically significant slightly more often than is the eliminate child marriage, leading to a large reduction case at the primary level, but they are also much larger. For in early childbearing in many developing countries. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 36 Table 18: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment for Mothers on Young Children and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Less than Primary Completed Universal Primary Universal Secondary Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Under-five mortality Primary completed 3 17 -1.7 1.39 20.3 Some secondary 4 22 -1.8 - - Secondary completed 4 22 -1.6 1.34 21.8 Higher education 9 50 -2.6 - - Under-five stunting Primary completed 3 17 -1.1 0.16 0.7 Some secondary 5 28 -10.7 - - Secondary completed 7 39 -26.1 13.75 38.3 Higher education 8 44 -10.6 - - Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 18 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. Figure 7: Potential Reductions in Under-five Stunting (versus Less than Primary Completed) Primary Completed Some Secondary Secondary Completed Higher Education 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source: Authors. The Figure displays average marginal potential impacts. As done for other indicators, when assessing the potential significant risk of dying by age five or being stunted. After impact of universal education for girls, it therefore makes controlling for a wide range of other factors affecting those sense to consider the additional benefit from ending child risks, being born to a mother younger than 18 increases the marriage and reducing early childbearing. In the regression risk of under-five mortality by 4.0 percentage points on analysis for under-five mortality and stunting, the variable of average when potential effects are statistically significant. interest is whether a child was born of a very young mother The risk of stunting increases by 7.2 percentage points on since the literature suggests that this may affect the child’s average when potential effects are statistically significant. health. Table 19 shows that in two thirds of the 18 countries These are rather large potential effects at the margin versus considered for this analysis, an early childbirth (being born baseline values, especially for under-five mortality. of a mother younger than 18) is associated with a statistically 37 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 The potential impacts of early childbearing on under- or stunting. This is because only a relatively small share of five mortality and stunting are large and have dramatic children is born to mothers who are younger than 18 at implications for the children exposed to those risks. At the time of their birth. This is why in Table 19, the national the same time, nationally, ending early childbearing would potential impacts of ending early childbearing tend to be not have a large potential impact on under-five mortality relatively small. Table 19: Potential Impact of Early Childbearing for Mothers on Young Children and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Less than Primary Completed Universal Primary Universal Secondary Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Under-five malnutrition 12 67 4.0 0.28 4.40 Under-five stunting 12 67 7.2 0.44 1.19 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 18 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. DOMAIN 5: AGENCY AND making in regard to health care (as mentioned in the previous section), household purchases, visits to friends and relatives, DECISION-MAKING and the use of husband’s earnings; (ii) women’s ability to refuse to have sex with her husband or to negotiate their WOMEN’S DECISION-MAKING ABILITY husband’s use of a condom; (iii) whether women feel that a husband is justified in beating his wife under the certain The fifth domain of potential impact considered is women’s circumstances; and finally (iv) whether women needed their agency and decision-making ability. A woman’s capacity husband’s permission to get medical assistance if needed. The for choice depends on agency, access to resources, and values of the index are normalized to take a value between past achievements. Educational attainment clearly has a zero and 100, as was done for knowledge of HIV/AIDS. potential impact on resources, for example by contributing to women’s ability to earn a living on the labor market. Results from the estimations are provided in Table 20 with Educational attainment also affects past achievements as well potential impacts visualized in Figure 8. The potential effects as capabilities, as is the case when a lower level of education of educational attainment on the index of decision-making reduces the types of employment that women have access ability are statistically significant in virtually all countries, to. Finally, educational attainment may also affect agency and higher as expected when women have completed their if it reduces girls and women’s decision-making ability in secondary education. Under universal secondary education, the household, among others. The question is whether the there could be an increase in the ability of women to make potential effects are large or small. decisions within the household nationally of 6.6 percentage points in the 17 countries where the potential effect is To measure the potential impact of educational attainment statistically significant, which corresponds to an increase of of the ability of women to make decisions within their ten percent from the base value. The potential effect is at household, an index is created using variables available in one third of that for primary education. DHS datasets. The variables pertain to (i) women’s decision- JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 38 Table 20: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment on Women’s Decision-making Ability and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Less than Primary Completed Universal Primary Universal Secondary Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Primary completed 11 61 3.2 2.01 3.1 Some secondary 17 94 4.5 - - Secondary completed 17 94 7.5 6.50 10.3 Higher education 18 100 10.8 - - Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 18 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. What about the potential impact of child marriage? Table could be that in contexts where women have limited decision- 21 suggests that the additional benefit from virtually ending making capacity in general, those married as children may child marriage through universal secondary education could not necessarily show statistically significantly lower decision- be smaller. We find that the direct potential impact of child making ability as compared to those who marry one or a few marriage on women’s decision-making ability is statistically years later, when they reach the age of 18. However, child significant in only a few cases, and when potential effects are marriage itself is often a reflection of the lack of decision- statistically significant, they tend to be small in magnitude. It making ability of women (see Box 8). Table 21: Potential Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Decision-making Ability and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Marrying at 18+ Elimination of Child Marriage Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Marrying at ≤15 6 33 -1.0 Combined effect: Combined effect: Marrying at 16 2 11 1.1 0.13 0.35 Marrying at 17 3 17 2.1 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 18 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. Figure 8: Potential Gains in Overall Decision-Making Ability (versus Less than Primary Completed) Primary Completed Some Secondary Secondary Completed Higher Education 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Source: Authors. The Figure displays average marginal potential impacts. 39 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 BOX 8: LACK OF DECISION-MAKING FOR GIRLS AND WOMEN MAY START WITH CHILD MARRIAGE The question of whether girls and women have a say in key decisions affecting their life starts with the decision to marry and whom to marry. Findings on this decision depend on context. The study by Perlman et al. (2018b) in Niger suggests that some girls do not object to marrying early as this is the practice in their community. As one girl expressed it: “I was already twelve and most of my friends were married. I just knew I was ready too. The boys started coming to the motor park where I hawked to talk with me. Some brought gifts. The next year the number of boys coming to visit me increased, though none of them mentioned marriage until this man from another community came along. He’s now my husband.” But other girls clearly do not want to marry early and may be forced to. Parents can exert a great deal of pressure on their daughters to marry, as illustrated by the following quote: “Years ago a wealthy man gave my neighbor 17,000 Franc CFA twice without any reason. My neighbor accepted it happily as poverty is his problem. The next time the wealthy man visited, he told my neighbor he wanted to marry his daughter. My neighbor said his daughter was in school and that he didn’t want to marry her out yet. The wealthy man then asked for his money back. My neighbor had nothing to sell and had no wealthy friends or family members to lend him money. In the end he decided to give his daughter out without completing her education. We used to face these kinds of problems more often as a result of poverty and ignorance.” SATISFACTION WITH SERVICES water quality, and healthcare. It is also the case for women’s satisfaction with the city they live in and their perception One aspect of agency is the ability for women to properly of the availability of good affordable housing. The potential assess the quality of the basic services that they rely on in effects are as expected larger with a tertiary education. their daily life. The Gallup World Poll includes interesting Note that we refer in the title of Table 22 to ‘associations’ data on the satisfaction with a wide range of services. as opposed to ‘potential impacts’ to note that for these Especially in developing counties, the quality of these basic specific indicators, one should be especially careful about not services is often low. For example, while children may be necessarily inferring causality. enrolled in school, they may learn little while in school. One would expect well-informed individuals to be more A negative correlation is not necessarily a bad thing. critical about the quality of the services they receive, and Indeed, lower levels of satisfaction with basic services could one would also expect that individuals with higher levels of lead women to exercise their agency and require better education would be better informed of potential issues with services, which could in turn lead to some improvements. those services. However, less educated individuals are likely When women are not satisfied with a service provider, they to have access to lower quality services. Thus, in a given could also turn to another provider, and thereby through cross-section of data the educational attainment of women competition in local provision drive the various providers could be negatively or positively correlated with their level of towards improving services. It also seems that well educated satisfaction with basic services. women are especially discerning about the quality of the education systems in their country, since the largest potential As shown in Table 22, a higher level of educational impacts are observed for the education system. Although attainment is associated with a lower satisfaction with various this is not shown in the Table, it is also worth noting that the types of services after controlling for a wide range of other baseline levels of satisfaction with services are not very high, variables that could affect satisfaction levels. This is the with typically only two thirds of women satisfied with any case for all six services for which data are available: public given service, and sometimes less. The only exceptions are transportation, roads and highways, education, air quality, for the satisfaction of individuals with the city or area they JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 40 Table 22: Associations between Educational Attainment and Women’s Satisfaction with Services Women only sample Secondary (vs. Primary) Tertiary (vs. Primary) Satisfied with public transportation system -0.01 -0.04 Satisfied with the roads and highways -0.02 -0.05 Satisfied with education system -0.03 -0.09 Satisfied with the quality of air -0.04 -0.08 Satisfied with the quality of water -0.02 -0.04 Satisfied with the quality of health care -0.03 -0.05 Satisfied with the city you live in -0.02 -0.03 Availability of good affordable housing -0.01 -0.04 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from the Gallup World Poll. Note: Regression estimates reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that an estimate is not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. live in and for air quality where satisfaction rates are higher at rates could be lower if women were better educated. The close to 80 percent (for air quality this is not surprising given results would however need to be interpreted with caution, that most people in the world still live in areas with limited air given that confounding factors are likely to be present pollution). especially for those subjective outcomes, so that inferring any causality and assuming that any bias in estimates may be Simulations could be carried to assess the potential impact limited is more problematic. Therefore, while we do note the of universal secondary and tertiary education on satisfaction interesting associations suggested by Table 22, simulations rates. These simulations would suggest, based on the for universal secondary and tertiary education are not potential impacts provided in Table 22, that satisfaction provided here. 41 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 BIRTH REGISTRATION the analysis was implemented, a higher level of educational attainment for mothers is associated with an increase in the The last illustrative example of analysis of agency is for likelihood of birth registration for their children. In the case birth registrations. The benefits of birth registration are of universal secondary education, in the countries where important for children, and one would expect a higher level statistically significant potential effects are observed, the of educational attainment for mothers to be positively gains in registrations could be at more than nine percentage correlated with the likelihood of registering their child at points, which is equivalent to an increase of almost a fourth birth. This could also be considered as an indirect indicator of from the baseline registration rates. Potential effects for agency for women. Table 23 and Figure 9 provide the results primary education tend to be substantially lower, as has been from the analysis. In 40 percent of the countries for which observed for many other indicators in this study. Table 23: Potential Impact of Educational Attainment for Mothers on Birth Registration and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Less than Primary Completed Universal Primary Universal Secondary Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Primary completed 6 40 5.1 3.01 5.3 Some secondary 6 40 6.6 Secondary completed 6 40 12.6 9.38 24.7 Higher education 6 40 20.8 - - Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 17 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. Figure 9: Potential Gains in Birth Registration (versus Less than Primary Completed) Primary Completed Some Secondary Secondary Completed Higher Education 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Authors. The Figure displays average marginal potential impacts. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 42 What about the potential impact of child marriage, or depends on the context of each country, and whether the rather in this case early childbearing, on the likelihood of legal minimum age for marriage is enforced, which is not birth registration? When mothers have children below the necessarily the case in developing counties. Table 24 provides minimum legal age for marriage, legislation aimed at delaying estimates of the potential impact of early childbearing on the age at marriage could potentially lead to lower birth birth registrations. In most cases, potential impacts are not registration rates if women are fearful that having a child at statistically significant, and in the few cases where statistically a young age suggests that marriage took place before the significant potential impacts are observed, they tend not to minimum legal age. Whether such disincentives are at work be large. Table 24: Potential Impact of Early Childbearing for Mothers on Birth Registration and Simulations Statistically Significant Potential National Simulated Potential Impacts Impacts versus Mother at 18+ Elimination of Early Childbearing Number of Share of Average Absolute Proportional Change Countries Countries (%) Impact Reduction from Base (%) Birth Registration 4 27 -8.5 0.68 1.03 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys. Note: Estimates are based on country-level analysis for 17 developing countries. Average potential impacts and simulation results are reported for countries where coefficients for the variables of interest are statistically significant. DOMAIN 6: SOCIAL Table 25 and Figure 10 provide the estimates of the association between educational attainment with each CAPITAL AND behavior. Controlling for many other factors that affect these behaviors including levels of per capita income, a INSTITUTIONS secondary education level is associated with an increase in the likelihood of engaging in the three behaviors of four to six ALTRUISTIC BEHAVIORS percentage points. For tertiary education, the increase is at 10 to 14 points. As done for Table 22, we refer in the title of Altruistic behaviors are fundamental for the well-being Table 25 to associations as opposed to potential impacts to of individuals – both those who benefit from altruism and emphasize that for these specific indicators, one should again those who practice it. The behaviors also matter for social be especially careful about not necessarily inferring causality. cooperation and trust at the level of communities and The same terminology is used for other indicators in this societies. As with other indicators, multiple factors are likely section. to affect individual altruistic behaviors. For this study, we look again at the potential impact of women’s educational Why is a higher level of educational attainment associated attainment on the likelihood that they engage in altruistic with a higher likelihood of altruistic behaviors? Research behaviors using data from the Gallup World Poll. Three has found that social exclusion decreases the likelihood of indicators of altruistic behaviors are considered: (1) whether prosocial behavior, and this may be one of the channels a woman made in the past month a monetary contribution underlying the correlation between low educational to a charity; (2) whether she volunteered her time with any attainment and the measured altruistic behaviors. Another organization in the past month; and (3) whether she helped a hypothesis is that women with higher levels of education stranger or someone she did not know who needed help. tend to in a better position in life, and thereby are more 43 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 able to help others. Even though we control among others have the social networks nor the resources that would enable for household per capita income and women’s employment them to volunteer, donate to charity, or help strangers. In status in the regressions, a higher level of educational other words, it is not that women who are better educated attainment is likely to be associated with a position in life are intrinsically more altruistic than those who are less well where women have a higher ability to help others. By educated. Rather, those who are better educated are on contrast, women who are less educated tend to be poorer average likely to be in a better position to help others. This and they may struggle just to make ends meet. They may not is a conjecture, but a reasonable one to interpret the results from the analysis. Table 25: Associations between Educational Attainment and Women’s Altruistic Behaviors Women only sample Secondary (vs. Primary) Tertiary (vs. Primary) Donating to charity 0.04 0.10 Volunteering 0.06 0.14 Helping strangers 0.06 0.12 Source: Authors. Regression analysis based on data from the Gallup World Poll. Note: Regression estimates reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that an estimate is not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Figure 10: Potential Change in Altruistic Behaviors (versus Primary Education) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Donating to Charity Volunteering Helping Strangers Secondary Tertiary Source: Authors. The Figure displays marginal potential impacts with pooled data. What could be the potential effect of universal secondary or volunteers in the baseline estimates, the proportion is at one tertiary education on altruistic behaviors? The estimates are in three for charitable donations and four in ten for helping provided in Table 26. Universal secondary education could strangers. For universal tertiary education, the increase could lead to an increase in altruistic behaviors of two to three be at close to ten percentage points, leading to gains versus percentage points, an increase of up to one tenth versus baseline values of one fifth to one third, depending on the the baseline values. Indeed, while only one in five women specific altruistic behavior considered. These gains are again substantial. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 44 Table 26: Simulated Potential Change in Altruistic Behaviors by Educational Attainment Baseline Universal Proportional Universal Proportional Women only sample Estimate Secondary Change Tertiary Change Donating to charity 30.3 33.0 9.0 39.0 28.9 Volunteering 19.1 21.0 10.0 26.0 36.0 Helping strangers 43.5 46.5 7.0 51.6 18.7 Source: Authors based on Gallup World Poll data. Note: Simulations reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that a simulation is not shown because the coefficient was not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. FRIENDSHIPS AND SUPPORT NETWORKS Increased education can be important for nation-building can rely on these friends when in need. As shown in Table 27, and for social cohesion. At the individual level, friendships in comparison to women with only a primary education or made in late secondary school and in tertiary education less, a higher level of educational attainment is not associated can be very important for girls’ transition to adulthood. Two with an increase in the opportunity to make friends, but it is interesting questions are asked in the Gallup World Poll in associated with a higher ability to rely on such friends when this area. The first is whether women are satisfied with their in need. The gain is at five percentage points with secondary opportunities to make friends, and the second whether they education and seven points with tertiary education. Table 27: Associations between Educational Attainment and Women’s Friendships Women only sample Secondary (vs. Primary) Tertiary (vs. Primary) Having friends that help you 0.05 0.07 Satisfied with opportunities to make friends NS NS Source: Authors based on Gallup World Poll data. Note: Simulations reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that a simulation is not shown because the coefficient was not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. What could be the potential effect of universal secondary or a wide range of other factors that could affect the ability tertiary education on psychological well-being for women? to have friends that can help. One potential explanation is The results from the simulations are reported in Table 28. that individuals often become friends with others from a Globally, with universal tertiary education, there could be similar socio-economic background. Therefore, friends of an increase of up to one tenth from the base in the reported better educated women may have the (financial) ability to ability to have friends on which to rely on when in need. This help them especially when they are in need, while friends of is again high given that the regression analysis controls for women with lower levels of educational attainment may not have that ability. 45 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 Table 28: Simulated Potential Change in Women’s Friendships and Support Networks by Educational Attainment Baseline Universal Proportional Universal Proportional Women only sample Estimate Secondary Change Tertiary Change Having friends that help you 76.1 79.5 4.4 82.9 8.9 Opportunities to make friends 78.1 NS NS NS NS Source: Authors based on Gallup World Poll data. Note: Simulations reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that a simulation is not shown because the coefficient was not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS expect well-educated women to be more critical about core The last set of indicators considered in this study pertains to institutions or their leaders as they may be better informed trust in social institutions, trust in a country’s leaders, and of potential issues with those institutions or leaders. As perceptions of one’s community. For the three categories of was the case for satisfaction rates for basic services, this is indicators combined, a total of 15 perceptions are considered. not a bad thing as concerns may lead women to exercise The results are provided in Table 29 for the potential impacts their agency and require better functioning institutions, of secondary and tertiary education controlling for a wide less corruption, and better leaders. At the same time, range of other factors that could affect these perceptions. for their own community, women with higher levels of There are indications that a higher level of educational educational attainment tend to be more satisfied in terms attainment is associated with less confidence in institutions, of how welcoming the communities are to various types a perception that corruption is widespread, a concern that of individuals that could face hardship or discrimination freedom of the press may be limited, and lower approval such as racial and ethnic minorities, immigrants, gay and ratings for leaders. lesbian people, or people with intellectual disabilities. These perceptions may reflect the women’s own attitudes as The story here may be similar to that mentioned for the opposed to the actual reality in communities, but the fact satisfaction of women with basic services. One would that the measured associations are positive is encouraging. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 46 Table 29: Associations between Educational Attainment and Women’s Perceptions of Institutions and Leaders Women only sample Secondary (vs. Primary) Tertiary (vs. Primary) Perceptions of Institutions Confidence in local police force -0.04 -0.05 Confidence in military -0.04 -0.07 Confidence in judicial system and courts -0.08 -0.08 Confidence in national government -0.07 -0.07 Confidence in the honesty of elections -0.07 -0.03 Afraid to express political views 0.01 NS Perceptions of Corruption and Leaders Corruption is widespread across government 0.03 NS Approving job performance of the leader -0.06 -0.05 Approving way the President handling his job -0.05 -0.05 Your country’s media has a lot of freedom -0.04 -0.08 Satisfaction with Community Good place to live for racial and ethnic minorities NS 0.01 Good place to live for immigrants 0.02 0.04 Good place to live for gay and lesbian people 0.03 0.07 Good place to live for people with intellectual disabilities 0.01 NS Recommend your city to others 0.01 0.03 Source: Authors based on Gallup World Poll data. Note: Simulations reported for the pooled sample that includes data for more than 100 countries. NS means that a simulation is not shown because the coefficient was not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. If simulations for the potential changes in these perceptions possibly differences in the actual quality of the services under universal primary or secondary education were provided or in the integrity of institutions at the local level, conducted, the potential effects would follow readily from with possibly lower quality services in poorer and less well- the above potential impacts. As was the case for perceptions educated areas. The complexity of the factors at play make related to the satisfaction with basic services, we do not inferences that could suggest causality more problematic, provide here the simulations. This is again because for issues even if again we note the interesting relationships that related to trust in institutions, the coefficient estimates the coefficient estimates in Table 29 suggest between provided in Table 29 are likely the result of several factors. educational attainment and indicators of trust in national This includes not only potentially higher expectations for institutions that are constitutive of social capital. service quality or integrity in the management of institutions among women with higher levels of education, but also 47 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 POTENTIAL ECONOMIC losses or gains as annual flows (the GDP or annual earnings approach), we focus on losses in human capital (the wealth COSTS approach). Human capital wealth is defined as the present value of the future earnings of today’s labor force, considering MEASUREMENT APPROACH individuals aged 15 and above. When the analysis is done by gender, human capital wealth can be estimated separately for Low educational attainment for girls has major potential men and women, and the losses in human capital wealth from negative impacts for themselves, their children and their not educating girls can be measured accordingly. households, their communities, and societies. These potential impacts have been documented in previous sections for more At least three arguments justify using a wealth (stock) than 50 different indicators, and many more could have been approach as opposed to a GDP or earnings (flow) approach considered. What are some of the economic costs associated to measure the economic losses from not educating with those potential impacts? For many potential impacts, girls. First, using a flow approach does not reveal the full this is a hard question to answer, but for a few potential magnitude of the losses faced by women throughout their impacts, estimations can be provided. This is done in this working life. Estimates of losses from low educational section for the losses in earnings for women and the welfare attainment based on human capital wealth are substantially losses for populations from high rates of population growth larger than those based on annual earnings or GDP simply in countries with high fertility rates. In addition, we discuss because wealth is much larger than GDP. The full magnitude briefly the potential for losses in earnings in adulthood for of the losses from low educational attainment for girls children who are stunted. As mentioned in the introduction, appears only when considering women’s human capital the objective is not to provide precise costs, but rather to give wealth, that is the present value of women’s future earnings an order of magnitude of expected potential costs, simply to over their lifetime. show that these potential costs are indeed likely to be very large. Second, a flow approach tends to emphasize losses for individuals at the peak of their earnings, since they account Typically, researchers looking at the potential impact of for a larger share of the labor earnings in GDP. Again, it a lack of educational attainment on development have seems more appropriate to look at women’s lifetime earnings focused on annual measures of income losses or gains, or to better reflect expected losses from low educational measures of growth in income. These analyses focus on attainment. This should give a higher weight to younger the potential losses in earnings or Gross Domestic Product women than is the case with the flow approach. (GDP) from low educational attainment, whether for girls/ women of boys/men. This focus on annual incomes is natural Third, and perhaps most fundamentally, a wealth approach since GDP is the standard measure according to which the is forward-looking as it emphasizes sustainability. As economic performance of countries is measured today. Yet already mentioned, countries’ economic development has GDP growth is a short-term measure of performance, which traditionally been assessed through GDP per capita, a may be misleading about the health of an economy because measure of the income produced by a nation in a given year. it does not reflect whether a country is investing in the assetsSimilarly, economic performance has been traditionally base that will sustain its long-term growth – including the assessed through growth in GDP per capita. But with which education of its workforce and especially girls. For example, a resources is GDP produced? GDP, or more precisely the country could deplete its natural capital base or fail to investconsumption component of GDP, is essentially is the annual in the human capital of its people and still be able generate return that a country reaps from its wealth, the assets base high rates of GDP growth in the short run, although that it uses for production. Wealth consists of natural capital probably not in the long-run. such as agricultural land, forest, oil, gas and minerals, to give a few examples. It also consists of produced capital – think In this study as in previous work at the World Bank on the about infrastructure, machinery, factories, or buildings. cost of gender inequality (Wodon and de la Brière, 2018), we Finally, wealth consists of human capital, such as a well- rely on a different approach to measure the losses that result educated and productive labor force. These three categories from low educational attainment for girls, or equivalently, the – produced, natural, and human capital, are considered the gains associated with higher attainment. Instead of measuring three main components of the changing wealth of nations, JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 48 that together with net foreign assets, provide the assets base capita terms. The estimates are from Lange et al. (2018). that countries rely on to produce GDP capita from year to They are based on data for 141 countries accounting for year. The wealth approach thus emphasizes sustainability. 95 percent of the world’s population. All estimates are in constant US dollars of 2014. Given the advantages of wealth accounting over annual earnings or GDP measures to measure losses in earnings As shown in Table 30, global wealth stood at US$ 1,143 due to low educational attainment for women, we rely in trillion in 2014. Human capital wealth was at US$ 737 trillion, this note on research recently completed by the World accounting for more than two thirds of total wealth versus Bank on the Changing Wealth of Nations study (Lange et just under one tenth for natural capital and about a quarter al., 2018). Building on two previous reports (World Bank, for produced capital. In per capita terms, total wealth stood 2006, 2011), the study covers the period 1995 to 2014. It at US$ 168,580 per person, with human capital wealth includes not only estimates of produced capital and natural estimated at US$ 108,654 per person. Inequality in human capital, as did previous reports, but also estimates of human capital and total wealth between countries is high. In high capital following the approach suggested by Jorgensen income OECD countries, total wealth per capita is above and Fraumeni (1992a, 1992b). The estimations of human US$ 700,000, and human capital wealth is at close to US$ capital are based on household survey data. They represent 500,000 per person. This is more than 90 times the level in a significant improvement over past estimates where total low income countries where human capital wealth is at only wealth included a large unexplained residual called ‘intangible US$ 5,564 per person. capital’. This residual, it turns out, consists for the most part of human capital wealth. By measuring the shares of Table 30 also provides estimates of human capital wealth human capital wealth associated to men and women at the by gender. Globally, in 2014 women accounted for 38 country level, as done in previous work on gender inequality percent of human capital wealth versus 62 percent for men. (Wodon and de la Brière, 2018), the methodology enables This proportion is similar to results obtained by studies of us to estimate lifetime earnings losses due to low educational the share of women and men in Gross Domestic Product attainment for women specifically. (McKinsey, 2015; World Economic Forum, 2017). In absolute terms, human capital wealth attributed to women was estimated at US$ 283.6 trillion in 2014 versus US$ LOSSES IN HUMAN CAPITAL WEALTH FROM 453.2 trillion for men. These are in fact essentially the WOMEN’S EARNINGS proportions observed for upper middle and high-income OECD countries which account for the bulk of human The methodology for estimating human capital wealth is capital wealth globally due to higher earnings in those explained in Appendix 2. Before discussing losses in human countries. In low and lower-middle income countries, in part capital wealth from low educational attainment for girls due to India, women account for a third or less of human and women, it is useful to provide the baseline estimates of capital wealth. human capital and total wealth in absolute value and in per 49 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 Table 30: Estimates and Components of the Wealth of Nations Total Wealth in 2014 Per Capita Wealth in Women only sample (US$ Trillions) 2014 (US$) Total wealth 1,143.2 168,580 Produced capital 303.5 44,760 Natural capital 107.4 15,841 Human capital 736.9 108,654 Of which men 453.2 66,832 Of which women 283.6 41,823 Net foreign assets -4.6 -676 Source: Lange et al. (2018). Analysis based on 141 countries with a population of 6.8 billion people in 2014. To measure the potential cost of not educating girls, wage regressions. As mentioned in Box 4, the estimates simulations are again conducted. Since the gains from of potential gains in earnings from universal secondary primary education tend to below, the focus is on losses in education do not account for general equilibrium effects. A human capital wealth in comparison to a scenario in which all second scenario could be considered in which the educational women would have a secondary education, whether partial expansion could reduce by as much as half the benefits or completed. The idea is to shift women with no or only from higher educational attainment. This could happen primary education to secondary education, and measure the if the economy fails to grow at a rate that can generate gains in earnings and thereby human capital wealth that could sufficient jobs to absorb the more educated women entering result. These gains are equivalently the measure of the losses the labor market, and/or if the educational expansion were from not having universal secondary education (partial or to negatively affect education quality due to the lack of completed) for women. The individual-level losses from low adequate investments in inputs required to ensure learning. education are aggregated first at the country level, then at In that case, with a reduction of the potential benefits from the global level. higher educational attainment of 50 percent, the losses in human capital wealth from achieving universal secondary Different models for the simulations would generate education would be valued at US$ 15 trillion. different results. Referring to the earlier discussion on the wage regressions, both models with education defined in These estimates of the losses in human capital wealth from years or levels could be used. The two types of models low educational attainment for girls and women are again would generate different results. To simulate the benefits of only orders of magnitude – they are not meant to be precise secondary education completion, we rely on the model with or definitive given the many assumptions involved. On years of education to estimate potential gains in earnings the one hand, with the baseline estimate, the model may and thereby human capital wealth from universal secondary overestimate gains, since general equilibrium effects that education defined as 12 years of schooling completed for could lead to smaller gains in earnings when more women all women. Using the baseline data on human capital wealth become better educated are not factored in. On the other in Table 30, and applying to these estimates the expected hand, only earnings gains for women already working are country-specific gains in earnings from the wage regressions considered in the analysis. Therefore, the estimate may be when shifting women from less than 12 years of schooling to conservative because gains in labor force participation are 12 years, the global losses from low educational attainment not included and, as shown in Table 4, the increase in labor are estimated at just under US$ 30 trillion, or about ten force participation could be important. Overall, by providing percent of the baseline value of women’s human capital. a range of potential benefits from US$ 15 trillion to US$ 30 This is an approximate estimate whereby human capital trillion, we wish to indicate that while it is difficult to provide a wealth estimates are scaled up in the simulations by the precise estimate of potential benefits, it should be clear that average country-specific gain in women’s earnings from the the benefits are large. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 50 The suggestion that women’s human capital wealth would The analysis of nutrition outcomes presented earlier suggests increase by only five to 10 percent globally with universal that in countries where the potential impact was found to secondary education (partial or completed) may be be statistically significant (just over a third of the countries surprising. In separate work using a similar approach, the for which the analysis was carried), universal secondary potential gains in human capital wealth from achieving gender education for mothers could help reduce stunting rates equality in earnings between men and women were estimated by more than a third. In addition, early childbearing could at US$ 160 trillion (Wodon and de la Brière, 2018). Why are be reduced by keeping girls in school and avoiding child the gains from universal secondary education for girls/women marriage, which could also contribute to lower stunting smaller? The main reason is that gender gaps in earnings rates, although to a smaller extent than better educational between women and men are observed worldwide, including attainment for mothers. Simulations based on these results in upper middle and high-income countries that concentrate and the potential impact of stunting in childhood on earnings most of the world’s human capital wealth. By contrast, low in adulthood suggest that universal education for girls could educational attainment for women is concentrated in low and bring additional gains, but that those gains are of a smaller lower middle-income countries where estimates of human order of magnitude in comparison to those mentioned above capital wealth per woman are much smaller. In other words, for women’s earnings. the number of women assumed to benefit from a higher level of educational attainment in upper middle and high income countries is limited. While many more women benefit from LOSSES IN WELFARE DUE TO POPULATION higher educational attainment in the simulations in low and GROWTH lower middle-income countries, the absolute gains in human capital wealth for those women are smaller in absolute The earlier analysis demonstrated that women’s educational value. Still, in comparison to base values, the simulated gains attainment has a large potential impact on their lifetime in human capital wealth in low and lower middle income fertility and population growth, both directly and through countries tend to be larger in proportional terms, and are in a reduction in child marriage and early childbearing. In some cases quite large. the 18 countries for which simulations were carried with demographic projection tools, the average reduction in population growth was estimated at -0.18 percentage points. LOSSES IN HUMAN CAPITAL WEALTH FROM The reductions in annual population growth rates are however UNDER-FIVE STUNTING different depending on which country is considered. In India, the largest of the 18 countries, the reduction was estimated For stunted children and their families, the cost of stunting at only -0.08 percentage point because the country has may not be primarily economic. At the same time, when already gone through much of its demographic transition. considering the potential impact on human capital wealth For perspective, India’s annual population growth rate is of stunting due to low educational attainment for mothers, currently at 1.2 percent per year, versus more than two the focus must be on potential monetary costs. What is percent and in some cases three percent or more per year for the loss in human capital wealth from higher stunting rates many other countries included in the simulations. among children due to a lack of educational attainment for their mothers? Research suggests a loss in productivity in At the global level, estimates of the potential impact of adulthood associated with lower height. It has been suggested ending child marriage in 2015 on the global population were that undernutrition may lead to economic losses equivalent obtained based on detailed analysis for 18 countries and to four to 11 percent of Gross Domestic Product in sub- extrapolations for another 88 countries with data on child Saharan Africa and Asia (Horton and Steckel, 2013). Results marriage. The results suggest that the world population from an experiment in Guatemala suggest that children could be 1.4 percent lower in 2030 if child marriage could who benefited from nutrition supplements were less likely have been ended in 2015 versus business-as-usual trends. to be stunted and had better cognitive abilities and higher This cumulative reduction in the total population of the levels of per capita consumption in adulthood, making the world after 15 years is smaller than the reduction in the 18 intervention highly cost effective (Hoddinott et al., 2013). reference countries because the incidence of child marriage is lower in the rest of the world than in those 18 countries. Now, the potential impact on fertility of universal secondary 51 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 education for the same 18 countries is more than twice that of that wealth (0.3 percent per year) is valued at more than of child marriage, as was shown earlier. Therefore, universal US$ 3 trillion in terms of the increase in human capital secondary education could lead to a larger reduction in wealth that could result from lower population growth in the population growth by 2030 of up to 3.3 percent versus initial year for the simulations. This is the valuation for the business as usual scenarios. Universal secondary education first year of potential impact only. The benefits from lower could also virtually end child marriage. Hence, combining population growth would increase from one year to the next the potential impacts of ending child marriage and that of since the reduction in population growth would continue achieving universal secondary education could generate a in subsequent years (each year, the population growth rate reduction in the world’s population of up to 4.7 percent by would be about 0.3 percent lower than under a business-as- 2030 under the same reasoning. This is a large potential usual scenario). impact, but it corresponds to extreme assumptions – the achievement of universal education and the elimination of Given this cumulative effect, over ten years, the potential child marriage right from the start of the simulations in 2015. impact could be about ten times larger (in fact, slightly larger The annual reduction in population growth leading to that due to compounding), at which time it could be of an order potential effect would be at about 0.3 percent per year. of magnitude similar to that observed for losses related to women’s earnings. In addition, as standards of living, wages, How much is this worth in terms of human capital wealth and thereby human capital wealth would increase, so would per capita? In the medium term, since children who would also the valuations of the gains in wealth per capita from not be born would have taken at least 15 years to enter the lower population growth. Thus, while the losses from higher labor force if not more, lower population growth results in population growth due to low educational attainment for an increase in human capital wealth per capita since the women could be initially smaller than the losses related denominator (population) is smaller while the numerator to women’s earnings mentioned above, losses from high (human capital wealth) does not change (it could actually population growth are far from being negligible and would increase if lower fertility rates lead to higher labor force increase over time, ultimately catching up and probably participation by women). With global wealth at US$ 1,143 exceeding losses from women’s earnings. trillion in 2014 as shown in Table 30, even a small percentage JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 52 CONCLUSION lower standards of living. When girls drop out of school prematurely, they are much more likely to marry as Globally, only three in four girls complete their lower children, and have their first child before the age of 18 secondary education. In low income countries, the when they may not yet be ready to be wife and mothers. proportion is one in three. Low educational attainment This in turn is associated with higher rates of fertility and for girls has negative consequences not only for them, but population growth, which in low income countries are major also for their children and household, as well as for their impediments for reaping the benefits of the demographic community and society. This study has documented the dividend. Low educational attainment is also associated with potential impacts of educational attainment for girls and worse health and nutrition outcomes for women and their women in six domains: (1) earnings and standards of living; children, leading among others to higher under-five mortality (2) child marriage and early childbearing; (3) fertility and and stunting. Girls who drop out of school also suffer in population growth; (4) health, nutrition, and well-being; adulthood from a lack of agency and decision-making ability (5) agency and decision-making; and (6) social capital and within the household, and in society more generally. They institutions. The results are sobering: the potential economic are also less likely to report engaging in altruistic behaviors and social costs of not educating girls are large. such as donating to charity, volunteering, or helping others. Finally, when girls and women are better educated, they may Key findings are summarized in Table 31. Low educational be better able to assess the quality of the basic services they attainment reduces expected earnings in adulthood, rely on and the quality of their country’s institutions and and it depresses labor force participation, leading to leaders. 53 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 Table 31: Selected Potential Benefits from Secondary Education for Girls Domain Coverage Estimated Potential Impacts Global Doubling of expected earnings in adulthood Earnings and standards of living Global Increase in labor force participation by one tenth Global Gain in perceptions of standards of living of up to one tenth DCs Virtual elimination of child marriage Child marriage and early childbearing DCs Reduction in early childbearing by up to three fourths DCs Reduction in total fertility by one third Fertility and population growth DCs Increase in contraceptive use by one fourth Global Reduction in global population growth by 0.3 point DCs Increase in women’s knowledge of HIV/AIDS by one fifth DCs Increase in women’s decision-making ability for health by one fifth Health, nutrition and well-being Global Increase in women’s psychological well-being DCs Reduction in under-five mortality rate by up a fifth DCs Reduction in under-five stunting rate by more than a third DCs Women more likely to exercise decision-making in the household Agency and decision-making Global Women possibly more likely to better assess quality of basic services DCs Increase in likelihood of birth registration by one fifth Global Women more likely to report altruistic behaviors Social capital and institutions Global Women more likely to report ability to rely on friends when in need Global Women possibly more likely to better assess institutions and leaders Global Loss in human capital wealth from US$ 15 trillion to US$ 30 trillion Potential economic costs Global Benefit from reduced population growth of more than US$ 3 trillion in first year after universal secondary completion, cumulative over time Source: Authors. Note: DCs = Developing countries. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 54 This study does not discuss interventions and policies to and more so than safe space programs that do not provide ensure that girls can complete their primary and secondary incentives for girls to remain in school. Beyond interventions education and learn while in school. But promising to improve education opportunities and delay marriage as interventions have now been implemented for some time well as early childbearing, programs providing economic in many countries. These interventions have been evaluated opportunities for women help in making investments in rigorously, and useful lessons can be learned from those education more attractive to girls and their families. Some evaluations, whether for educating girls (Evans and Yan, of these interventions are reviewed in a separate World 2018) or for delaying marriage and childbearing (Botea et Bank study on the cost of gender inequality in earnings al., 2017). For educating girls, the literature suggests that and programs to achieve equality (Wodon and de la Brière, interventions specific to girls may help increase access and 2018). Improving education and employment opportunities thereby educational attainment. By contrast, to improve for girls and women could have substantial budget costs, but learning, successful interventions don’t necessarily need to the benefits from higher educational attainment for girls be targeted to girls. For delaying marriage and childbearing, could also generate budget savings (see Box 9). education interventions tend to be the most successful, BOX 9: BUDGET COSTS AND SAVINGS WITH UNIVERSAL SECONDARY EDUCATION Achieving universal quality secondary education for girls would have a cost, both for state budgets and for households (out-of-pocket and opportunity costs). The costs for households could be computed from household surveys, and those for states could be computed from budget simulation tools, such as the tool created by Wils (2015). Apart from increasing access for girls to secondary education., it is also important to increase quality, which could also lead to costs that should not be underestimated. However, as mentioned in the conceptual framework for this study, budget savings could also be realized with universal secondary education for girls, for example through lower population growth from smaller fertility rates. In education for example, lower fertility would reduce the size of new cohorts of children, with the reduction becoming larger over time in comparison to business-as-usual projections since the potential effect of lower population growth would be cumulative over time (Wodon, 2018). Savings in the provision of basic services from lower rates of population growth would also be observed in other areas such as healthcare and basic infrastructure. It is beyond the scope of this study to compare the cost of secondary education for girls to the savings from lower population growth and other potential effects (such as an improvement in the health status of young children), but it is important to note that some budget savings for governments could be achieved, if not immediately, at least in the medium term. To conclude, the potential negative impacts of not educating just with the two potential impacts for which tentative costs girls are both substantial and wide-ranging. Monetary were estimated. Finally, an important message from the estimates of a few of the potential impacts of low educational analysis is that ensuring universal primary education is not attainment have been provided using measures of human enough. The benefits from education are much larger at capital wealth. These estimates should be considered as the secondary and tertiary levels than at the primary level. illustrative only, since they rely on many assumptions, and Investing in proven programs and policies will be key to different estimation approaches would lead to different ensure a better future for girls and enable countries to fulfill estimates. What is clear however is that the potential their development potential. This makes economic sense. It is economic costs are large, running in the trillions of dollars also the right thing to do. 55 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 APPENDIX 1: DATA AND survey data or specific questions are not available for all years for all countries, the pooled data set used for the analysis is METHODOLOGY large, with more than 200,000 observations. A total of 114 countries are included in our final sample: 10 from East Asia DATA SOURCES and the Pacific, 40 from Europe and Central Asia, 21 from Latin America and the Caribbean, four from the Middle East Three main types of surveys are used for the quantitative and North Africa, one for North America, seven from South analysis. Estimates of the gains from education and losses Asia, and 31 from sub-Saharan Africa. While some regions in earnings due to low educational attainment for women have better representation than others, most of the world’s are based on nationally representative household and labor population is included because large counties in terms of force surveys from the World Bank’s International Income population are covered. Because of the large sample size of Distribution Database (I2D2). The analysis builds on previous the pooled dataset, it is easier to obtain statistically significant work at the World Bank to measure human capital wealth for coefficients in the regression analysis with those data. While 141 countries as part of an analysis of the changing wealth of for this study regression estimates are obtained for the world, nations. In a nutshell, human capital wealth is defined as the in subsequent work estimates could be obtained for various present value of the future incomes of the labor force, and it regions or groups of countries. can be compared to other sources of wealth such as natural or produced capital. The estimates of human capital wealth In addition to relying on surveys, the team conducted have been disaggregated by gender. When using surveys qualitative work on the constraints faced by girls to continue from the I2D2 database and when estimating human capital their education, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa were wealth, the regression analysis is conducted for each country these constraints are most severe. Qualitative data were separately. obtained for countries in West Africa, Central Africa, and East Africa. While these data are not used systematically for The second key source of data for the estimations is a set of this note, excerpts from respondents in focus groups or in- publicly available Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). depth qualitative interviews are provided to illustrate findings Building on previous work on the economic impacts of child that emerge from the quantitative analysis. marriage, detailed analysis of the correlates of selected development outcomes was implemented with the most METHODOLOGY recent DHS for 18 developing countries: Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Dominican The study aims to estimate the potential impacts of low Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, educational attainment for girls on development outcomes Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Republic of Congo, and the economic costs associated with some of these Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. The choice of these countries potential impacts. The term potential ‘impact’ is used for was guided by policy considerations and the fact that most simplicity and for the study to be readable to non-technical have low levels of educational attainment for girls and high audiences, but one must be careful about not necessarily levels of child marriage. While the sample is titled towards inferring causality. Estimates of potential impacts are sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Latin America and the obtained through regression analysis to control for other Caribbean and the Middle East and North Africa are each variables that may affect the outcomes of interest. Different represented by one country. As with surveys from the I2D2 types of regression techniques are used depending on database, regression analysis is conducted for each country the outcomes of interest. In some cases, simulations or separately when using DHS data. statistical analysis are used. What is measured are thus statistical associations, and not necessarily impacts as The third main source of data is the Gallup World Poll which could be observed with randomized control trials or quasi- covers more than 150 countries. The Poll typically surveys experimental methods. Said differently, the regression 1,000 individuals in each country, using a standard set analysis provides estimates of likely potential impacts, but of core questions that has been translated into the major there is always a risk of bias (and in some cases upward bias) languages of the respective country. Because the samples at in the measures of the likely potential impacts being reported the country level are relatively small, the regression analysis due for example to the risk of omitted variables bias. for this study is conducted with the pooled dataset. While JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 56 To reduce the risk of bias in coefficient estimates, different disaggregate education levels more finely. This is why specifications for the regressions have been used, and we potential impacts are reported for five different education typically report results obtained with the largest number levels in comparison to having no education at all. These five of controls. In addition, we report only the direct potential levels are no education at all or some primary education, a impact of educational attainment on outcomes of interest. completed primary education, some secondary education, Because educational attainment may affect other variables a completed secondary education, and finally higher included in the controls, we tend to underestimate total education. When using data from the I2D2 surveys, we potential effects. This is done on purpose to be conservative either consider the number of years of education of the in the claims made about the benefits of educating girls individual, or four levels: no education at all, primary or the potential cost of not doing so. For example, in the education, secondary education, and tertiary education, in regressions with the Gallup World Poll, per capita income each case whether the cycle was completed or not. as well as the employment status of women are included in the controls. Apart from the direct potential effect of A second difference relates to the fact that when using DHS educational attainment on many outcomes, additional or I2D2 data, as mentioned above, regressions are estimated beneficial potential impacts would normally be observed with each individual country. By contrast, when using the through the indirect potential impact of educational Gallup World Poll, only one regression is estimated per attainment on per capita income and employment status. indicator of interest for the full dataset. For results based These indirect potential effects are not reported. The on the Gallup World Poll, there is thus only one regression only exception is for child marriage and early childbearing coefficient to report. But for results based on DHS and under the assumption supported by the data that achieving I2D2 data, we have different regression coefficients for each universal secondary education could reduce dramatically the country. For analysis with DHS data where estimations were rates of child marriage and could also reduce substantially done in most cases for 18 countries, the option adopted early childbearing. for presenting results is to report the number and share of countries where statistically significant potential impacts Based on measures of likely potential impacts, potential are observed, and the average value of those potential costs associated with selected potential impacts are then impacts when the coefficients in the regression analysis computed. Note that we provide such cost estimates only are statistically significant. For I2D2 data, because of the for a few potential impacts. These potential costs rely on much larger number of countries involved, we simply report assumptions and are thus tentative. The estimated costs average values across countries (most coefficients in wage represent an order of magnitude of potential costs rather regressions are statistically significant). than precise estimations. More details on the data sources and methodologies used for estimations and how they relate to key findings are available from the authors. APPENDIX 2: HUMAN PRESENTATION OF RESULTS CAPITAL WEALTH An explanation may be helpful as to why results are reported ESTIMATES slightly differently for work based on DHS and I2D2 data and work based on the Gallup World Poll. Two differences are The estimation of the potential economic costs of low worth mentioning. educational attainment for girls provided in this study for earnings and population growth rely on previous estimates First, the Gallup World Poll provides data on educational of human capital wealth (Lange et al., 2018). Human capital attainment in only three categories: primary and below, wealth is defined as the discounted value of future earnings secondary, and tertiary. This means that we can only report for a country’s labor force. In practice, we estimate how the potential impact of a secondary or tertiary education likely it is that various types of individuals will be working, and in comparison to having a primary education. We cannot how much they will earn when working. By “various types” distinguish those who have some primary education or a of individuals, we mean individuals categorized by age, sex, completed primary education from those who have no and level of education. Essentially, we use household surveys education at all. By contrast, with DHS surveys, we can to construct a dataset that captures (1) the probability 57 | T HE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | JULY 2018 that individuals are working depending on their age, sex, rely on two variables obtained from data compiled by the and years of education; and (2) their likely earnings when United Nations Population Division: (1) population data working, again, by age, sex and years of schooling. This is by age and sex (so that the data in the household surveys done separately for men and women, and results in estimates can be better calibrated); and (2) mortality rates by age of human capital wealth by gender. Typically, women earn and gender (so that the expected years of work can be significantly less than men on average, whether this is due adjusted, accounting for the fact that some workers will die to lower labor force participation, fewer hours of paid work before age 65). Again, we adjust data from the surveys to when working, or lower earnings per hour worked. population estimates from the United Nations to ensure that estimates are adequate. For individuals in the 15-to- Estimates of the likelihood of working for individuals are 24 age group, the probability of remaining in school is also based on observed values in household and labor force considered. surveys. Estimates of expected earnings are based on wage regressions. The regressions are used to compute expected Given the estimation of human capital wealth based on earnings throughout individuals’ working life, considering wage regressions, the measure accounts not only for the their sex, education level, and assumed experience number of years of schooling completed by workers, but (computed based on age and the number of years of also for the earnings gains associated with schooling (which education completed). Expected earnings are computed for implicitly factors in the quality of learning in school), all individuals in the surveys from age 15 to age 65, noting whether individuals work (labor force participation), and that some individuals may go to school beyond age 15. The for how many years they work (accounting for health analysis also considers the life expectancy of the labor force. conditions through life expectancy). Estimations of In countries with high life expectancy, workers are expected human capital wealth are done separately for men and to work until age 65, but in other countries they may not be women. This means that once we have estimates of human able to. For simplicity, when estimating the present value of capital wealth by gender, we can estimate losses in human future earnings, the same discount factor for future earnings capital wealth due to low educational attainment for girls is applied to all countries. specifically. The household surveys used for the computation of the When considering gains in wealth per capita from lower earnings profiles—as well as the probability of working—are population growth, total wealth estimates are used instead nationally representative. The surveys are in most cases of of estimates of human capital wealth. This is because lower good quality, but they may still generate estimates that are population growth would result in higher wealth per capita not consistent with either the system of national accounts or for other categories of wealth too (produced and natural population data for the countries. Therefore, two adjustments capital). are made. First, to ensure consistency of the earnings profiles from the surveys with published data from national accounts, earnings estimates from the surveys are adjusted to reflect the share of labor earnings (including both the employed and the self-employed) in GDP as available in the Penn World Tables. 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The work builds on previous studies at the World Bank on the economic impacts of child marriage (jointly with ICRW), the changing wealth of nations, and the cost of gender inequality in earnings. The authors are grateful to Sameera Maziad Al Tuwaijri, Rafael Cortez, Bénédicte de la Brière, Oni Lusk-Stover, Harry Patrinos, and Jeffrey Waite for valuable peer review comments, and Omar Arias for additional comments and advice. Apart from Omar Arias, Luis Benveniste and Meskerem Mulatu provided guidance. Patricia da Camara led the work on communications together with Barry Johnston at the Malala Fund. Weight Creative formatted the study for dissemination. The team is also grateful to Erin McCarthy and Linda Weisert at the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation and Louise Banham at the Global Partnership for Education for continuous support. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this study are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, its affiliated organizations or members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of material presented in this study should take into account its provisional character. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Information contained in this study may be freely reproduced, published or otherwise used for noncommercial purposes without permission from the World Bank. However, the World Bank requests that the original study be cited as the source. © 2018 The World Bank, Washington, DC 20433. JULY 2018 | THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS | 62 THE COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES: THE HIGH COST OF NOT EDUCATING GIRLS