99755 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Taking Stock  European institutions moved to re-open funding to Greece. Eurozone finance ministers and the European Central Bank (ECB) moved to restore funding to Greece after the country’s parliament agreed on Thursday to reform measures demanded by creditors. The Eurogroup approved a €7.2 billion bridge loan to let Greece meet debt repayments due in July, and the ECB raised the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) ceiling by €900 million to nearly €90 billion to help meet Greek banks’ needs for an additional week. On Friday, the German parliament voted to approve the third bailout plan for Greece.  China’s Q2 GDP grew more than expected. China’s growth remained robust in the second quarter of 2015, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising more than expected by 7 percent (y/y), unchanged from Q1 and in line with the government’s target for the year. Quarter-on-quarter, GDP grew by 7 percent in seasonally adjusted annualized term, compared to 5.7 percent in Q1 (Figure 1). Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics suggested a pick-up in the growth momentum at the end of Q2, with industrial production and fixed asset investment rising while retail sales remained steady.  U.S. retail sales fell unexpectedly in June. Retail sales in the U.S. declined 0.3 percent in June (m/m), more than expected, following a downwardly revised 1 percent increase in May (Figure 2). Core retail sales, which exclude cars, petrol and building supplies, were also weaker than expected, falling 0.1 percent after a 0.7 increase in May. The weaker retail sales figures seemed to suggest that the U.S. economy might have lost some growth momentum at the end of the second quarter.  German inflation slowed markedly in June. Consumer price inflation in Germany slowed noticeably in June, as expected, on account of declining energy prices. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 0.1 percent (y/y) in June down from 0.7 percent in May, well below the ECB’s annual inflation target of just below 2 percent. However, excluding energy costs, prices would be significantly higher at 1.1 percent (y/y) in June.  Ghana paused interest rate-tightening cycle. Ghana’s Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday as the country’s currency recouped almost all of its losses this year . The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the policy rate at 22 percent as the cedi surged 25 percent against the dollar this month, after the IMF gave a positive review of Ghana’s budget plans, helping ease pressures on inflation. FIGURE 1 China’s real GDP growth remained robust in Q2. FIGURE 2 U.S. retail sales growth slowed more than expected in June. Percent Percent, m/m Q/Q saar 11 Y/Y 1.5 10 1.0 9 0.5 8 0.0 7 -0.5 6 -1.0 5 -1.5 Q4 2010 Q2 2012 Q1 2013 Q4 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2011 Q2 2015 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Source: Haver Analytics, World Bank. Source: Bloomberg. Produced by DECPG (Eung Ju Kim, Gerard Kambou, Xinghao Gong). Number 271 | July 17, 2015 Weekly Insight: Implications of Negative Policy Rates for Sovereign Bond Yields in Europe Reflecting negative policy rates in several central banks in Europe, nominal yields on some bonds of highly-rated European governments have also dropped below zero. Explanations for the phenomenon of negative yields include very low inflation, further “flight to safety” toward fixed income assets in Europe’s core, and—perhaps the main proximate cause—the increased scarcity of highly-rated sovereign bonds eligible for the European Central Bank’s asset purchase program.  Policy rates provide the benchmark for short-term borrowing costs throughout the economy, including shorter- dated bonds. Thus, negative policy rates in some European countries have been accompanied by negative market rates on government bonds, particularly at the shorter end of the yield curve (Figure 3). Reflecting the impact of negative policy rates and yields, the euro has depreciated against the dollar (Figure 4). Besides the role of negative policy rates, there are several potential explanations for the emergence of negative yields, particularly those beyond the short-end of the yield curve. These additional factors are particularly relevant beyond the short end of the yield curve: very low inflation, the persistence of the international “savings glut,” and further “flight to safety” toward low-risk fixed income assets. In consequence, sovereign bonds of certain countries in Europe that are deemed risk-free have been in heavy demand.  That said, a key reason for negative sovereign yields in core European countries is technical—a result of demand pressures stemming from the ECB’s Extended Asset Purchase Program . Purchases announced by the ECB, which will amount to €60 billion per month until at least September 2016 (for a total of €1.1 trillion), will mainly be of sovereign bonds, following a defined allocation and strict eligibility criteria. These criteria prohibit purchases beyond 25 percent of the outstanding amount of individual securities, 33 percent of any given issuer’s debt, and of bonds with yields below the ECB’s deposit rate, currently set at –20 basis points. This lower yield limit is to ensure that purchases are implemented broadly across eligible bonds, and to curb speculation on future declines in bond yields. Such speculation would encourage holders, including banks, to hoard bonds. While the ECB deposit rate might establish a lower bound for bond yields, rising demand and limited supply of highly-rated sovereign bonds could bring their yields well below that rate.  Prospects of growing imbalances between the limited supply of eligible bonds and rising demand under the ECB quantitative easing program have pushed down yields in core Euro Area countries and, indirectly, in other European countries. Overall, the net issuance of medium- and long-term securities by all Euro Area debt management offices in 2015 is expected to be around €200 billion, against total asset purchases of €600 billion by the ECB. In some countries, including Germany, net issuance is expected to be marginal or even negative, creating a mismatch between effective supply and the intended scale of ECB’s purchases. Investors initially held on to core-European bonds on expectation of further capital gains, which in itself helped push yields to record low levels in April. A recent reversal in market sentiment led to an upward adjustment in yields. However, scarcity considerations will likely continue to drive core-European bond markets, which should keep yields at exceptionally low levels, and perhaps below zero for a while longer. FIGURE 3 2-year government bond yields FIGURE 4 Euro exchange rate and German 2-year yield Percent Percent 0.2 0.4 1.4 0 0.2 1.3 -0.2 -0.4 0 1.2 -0.6 Germany Austria -0.2 1.1 -0.8 Netherland -0.4 German 2-year yield 1 -1 Denmark Switzerland Euro FX (versus dollar, RHS) -1.2 -0.6 0.9 Oct-14 Feb-15 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Source: Bloomberg, World Bank. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank Produced by DECPG (Carlos Arteta). Number 271 | July 17, 2015 Major Data Releases Fri, 10 Jul - Thu, 16 Jul 2015 Upcoming releases: Fri, 17 Jul - Thu, 23 Jul 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous India 7/10/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) MAY 2.7% 3.25% 3.4% United States 7/17/2015 CPI (Y/Y) JUN 0.0% China 7/14/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) JUN 10.6% 10.2% 10.1% Australia 7/21/2015 CPI (Y/Y) Q2 1.3% China 7/14/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q2 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% Mexico 7/22/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAY 4.6% Turkey 7/15/2015 Unemployment Rate APR 9.9% 10.0% 10.0% UK 7/23/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) JUN 4.6% South Africa 7/15/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAY 2.5% 3.0% 3.4% Canada 7/23/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAY 1.7% Eurozone 7/16/2015 CPI (Y/Y) JUN 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% China 7/23/2015 PMI Manufacturing JUL 49.9 Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Industrial Production, S.A. World 8.8 4.7 3.0 2.6 3.7 2.4 2.5 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.2 - High Income Countries 7.6 2.9 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.4 0.6 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 - Developing Countries 10.9 7.9 6.2 5.5 4.9 5.4 5.1 4.8 5.0 4.8 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.8 5.0 5.0 5.3 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.7 4.2 - East Asia and Pacific 14.3 11.3 9.0 8.9 5.1 8.2 6.4 8.4 7.5 8.0 8.2 8.6 7.8 6.6 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.4 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.8 6.4 East Asia x. China 8.9 0.7 4.1 4.6 -0.8 8.5 3.9 6.2 0.4 2.7 3.9 4.8 1.1 4.6 5.7 4.4 4.0 4.8 4.2 2.6 6.4 2.8 3.5 - Europe and Central Asia 11.0 13.1 8.9 2.2 4.8 2.1 1.8 -0.5 4.1 4.1 6.6 3.6 4.0 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.0 2.0 3.0 1.7 1.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 6.2 2.6 -0.1 1.0 0.7 -2.8 -0.9 -3.3 1.9 -1.9 -1.1 -3.0 -1.7 -1.1 -1.5 -1.0 -2.1 -1.6 -2.5 -2.8 -3.0 -3.2 -1.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 -8.5 5.6 -6.6 19.0 2.0 28.6 -2.4 -9.1 -9.4 -7.6 -4.5 -0.1 11.3 16.2 12.0 13.2 8.1 -0.3 -0.3 5.2 4.4 6.8 - South Asia 9.3 5.5 1.1 1.7 7.4 4.9 1.4 -1.8 0.3 4.0 5.3 4.5 1.6 2.0 3.5 -1.5 5.9 4.3 3.4 5.1 3.6 4.4 3.5 - Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3 3.4 3.2 1.6 -4.1 1.4 -4.8 9.2 0.6 1.1 -0.7 1.1 -6.4 -0.2 6.3 1.5 -0.8 0.2 -1.5 0.2 3.8 -1.4 0.1 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 1.7 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 - Developing Countries 5.8 7.5 6.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.7 8.1 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.3 East Asia and Pacific 3.4 5.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 Europe and Central Asia 7.3 8.2 8.7 6.2 5.8 7.3 7.9 8.2 6.2 7.0 7.6 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.4 7.9 7.6 8.2 9.1 10.3 10.3 9.5 Latin America and Caribbean 6.4 7.5 6.7 9.8 12.4 13.8 15.4 16.7 12.8 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.5 17.1 16.8 16.4 15.1 14.4 13.8 Middle East and N. Africa 7.0 12.0 13.8 19.2 13.2 9.7 10.1 10.7 11.3 10.2 9.9 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 - South Asia 10.3 9.8 9.4 10.1 8.1 7.8 6.7 4.2 8.1 8.4 8.1 6.8 7.3 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.5 10.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.8 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 - 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.9 19.2 0.3 1.8 -1.9 3.6 2.4 -15.9 2.8 2.6 4.0 3.3 5.4 0.7 2.7 -1.4 -4.5 -4.0 -11.1 -7.2 -13.3 -13.94 -14.002 - High Income Countries 19.5 18.5 -1.1 1.2 1.2 0.7 -1.6 -19.3 5.4 3.2 4.2 2.6 5.0 -0.5 1.0 -3.4 -6.3 -5.7 -12.8 -13.3 -13.7 -15.46 -15.804 - Developing Countries 28.2 20.8 3.5 3.1 -8.7 10.6 11.8 -8.0 -2.9 1.2 3.4 4.9 6.2 3.3 6.8 3.2 -0.4 0.0 -7.4 7.6 -12.4 -10.37 -9.9 - East Asia and Pacific 30.8 19.7 6.3 6.5 -12.0 17.8 18.8 1.8 -3.6 2.4 5.7 7.9 11.2 8.2 12.7 8.3 3.4 5.7 -3.3 29.3 -11.6 -6.558 -4.4 1.2 Europe and Central Asia 15.5 20.3 -0.1 -0.2 8.5 -4.9 -7.2 -28.6 9.1 2.9 6.4 5.2 5.6 -4.0 -0.9 -6.5 -9.4 -11.3 -13.1 -15.4 -16.9 -16.07 -20.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 28.1 23.2 1.7 0.6 -9.2 9.1 3.5 -25.6 -2.9 -0.4 1.4 1.7 5.8 -0.5 0.0 -4.3 -8.8 -6.6 -8.7 -13.4 -5.7 -12.75 -15.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 23.7 15.9 5.0 -11.2 -8.2 0.7 25.9 -10.7 -14.4 -5.7 -10.2 -8.6 #### -1.9 1.9 16.5 -3.3 -10.4 -15.8 -22.0 -18.0 - - - South Asia 34.4 31.4 -1.8 6.2 -7.4 7.5 5.5 -2.0 1.4 5.2 11.0 8.4 0.1 1.5 -0.3 -5.5 8.7 -0.7 -7.5 -11.5 -17.6 -11.28 -16.7 - Sub-Saharan Africa 32.4 19.7 -2.5 -1.1 -3.0 -8.7 -1.2 -18.4 -6.6 -5.0 -8.9 -2.8 -1.5 -10.1 -2.1 -8.3 -7.8 -8.1 -27.3 -27.0 -19.8 - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.0 19.6 0.7 1.5 4.1 -1.1 0.9 -15.8 3.8 1.9 2.2 5.3 3.2 0.5 3.8 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8 -13.9 -13.3 -11.6 -15 -16.0 - High Income Countries 17.9 17.7 -1.0 0.4 5.0 1.2 -3.3 -18.5 7.6 4.3 4.3 6.4 5.4 0.5 2.2 -3.1 -5.3 -4.6 -13.8 -13.4 -12.8 -15.73 -16.0 - Developing Countries 29.7 24.5 4.7 4.0 2.2 -6.0 10.8 -9.8 -3.9 -3.2 -2.4 2.9 -1.5 0.7 7.5 0.6 -1.7 -2.0 -13.9 -13.1 -9.0 -13.37 -15.9 - East Asia and Pacific 37.3 24.1 5.7 6.2 4.6 -13.3 12.9 -9.6 -9.9 -2.1 -3.1 3.1 -2.4 -0.7 7.1 2.9 -5.2 -3.4 -17.6 -17.3 -9.6 -14.16 -15.7 -5.1 Europe and Central Asia 20.6 27.1 -0.4 2.9 -10.4 -4.6 -7.5 -9.9 -0.4 -5.2 -2.8 -0.1 -7.4 -4.3 -4.4 -7.2 -8.4 -8.8 -15.1 -13.5 -13.1 -17.67 -18.8 - Latin America and Caribbean 29.0 22.3 3.8 2.9 3.3 -2.4 6.8 -7.8 2.9 -4.7 -1.9 2.8 -0.5 -1.7 7.8 -4.2 0.3 3.6 -8.1 -8.5 -0.7 -11.23 -15.2 - Middle East and N. Africa 14.9 17.4 10.8 3.9 -0.6 -3.4 16.6 -19.9 2.7 1.5 3.0 -2.3 0.9 10.9 7.6 -1.4 -4.0 -2.7 -11.2 -7.1 -11.0 - - - South Asia 33.9 31.4 4.0 -4.0 9.6 10.6 33.9 -12.9 1.5 -9.8 -9.1 9.1 4.1 6.9 23.7 7.1 21.5 -1.2 -12.3 -12.7 -12.3 -7.871 -13.5 - Sub-Saharan Africa 13.2 25.1 4.0 6.2 -1.1 15.9 2.2 3.0 4.2 1.4 6.8 3.2 3.6 6.9 9.0 4.7 2.6 7.2 -2.0 2.0 -9.8 - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 10.2 11.3 9.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 -1.8 -1.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.7 -0.3 - Developing Countries 15.6 10.5 5.2 8.2 1.8 1.5 -2.0 -1.7 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -1.6 - - - East Asia and Pacific 19.3 11.9 4.5 12.2 3.0 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 - - - Europe and Central Asia 9.3 5.5 7.8 3.6 -2.9 3.4 -1.7 -7.2 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.0 -1.1 1.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -4.2 -0.9 -3.2 -2.1 1.4 -0.3 - Latin America and Caribbean 16.2 16.3 8.4 -1.1 0.2 3.4 1.2 -1.2 0.1 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -1.8 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.7 -0.3 -0.1 Middle East and N. Africa 6.1 3.0 5.9 3.0 -1.9 -2.2 -3.8 -3.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 -1.0 -2.1 -3.7 -0.8 -2.9 - - - South Asia 6.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 3.8 5.6 -0.6 2.1 3.3 2.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 271 | July 17, 2015 Financial Markets 1 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Sep-12 '08 3 Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 -1.97 ECB repo 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 -4.20 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.34 0.34 0.43 0.27 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 -2.53 EURIBOR 3-months 0.75 1.34 0.49 0.15 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 -4.89 US 10-yr Treasury yield 3.20 2.77 1.79 2.33 2.49 2.27 1.96 2.15 2.59 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.39 -1.33 German Bund, 10 yr 2.78 2.65 1.57 1.63 1.07 0.77 0.35 0.53 1.35 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.84 -3.35 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 301 341 342 319 301 367 425 380 282 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 387 30 Asia 206 218 216 219 195 202 219 201 189 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 208 -88 Europe 247 301 320 267 262 319 399 336 236 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 315 2 Latin America & Caribbean 360 404 393 379 366 471 537 487 343 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 517 129 Middle East 342 366 449 435 369 398 449 420 360 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 414 -84 Africa 274 364 337 322 280 319 373 355 278 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 362 362 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 331 300 340 409 417 417 425 424 429 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 429 34.1 High-Income ($ Index) 1280 1183 1339 1661 1698 1710 1741 1736 1743 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1768 37.8 United States (S&P-500) 1258 1258 1426 1848 1972 2059 2068 2063 1960 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2107 68.4 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1124 1005 1143 1339 1411 1401 1624 1552 1401 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1629 41.0 Japan (Nikkei-225) 10229 8455 10395 16291 16174 0 19207 20236 15162 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 0 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20463 67.5 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1151 916 1055 1003 1005 956 975 972 1051 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 938 9.6 EM Asia 468 379 447 446 460 457 481 475 472 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 454 38.6 EM Europe 529 395 473 438 374 297 302 311 435 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 305 -40.0 EM Europe & Middle East 450 336 402 372 321 257 258 266 360 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 262 -36.1 EM Latin America & Caribbean 4614 3602 3798 3201 3171 2728 2451 2517 3370 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2490 -29.6 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.76 0.72 0.78 0.75 0.76 0.80 0.89 0.90 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.89 0.91 29.3 Japan 87.76 79.74 79.85 97.61 104.04 114.62 119.16 121.38 102.07 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.74 123.31 14.2 Developing Brazil 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.28 2.55 2.87 3.07 2.23 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.11 3.14 76.3 China 6.77 6.46 6.31 6.15 6.16 6.15 6.24 6.20 6.23 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.21 6.21 -9.3 Egypt 5.63 5.94 6.07 6.87 7.15 7.15 7.49 7.61 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.63 7.83 44.4 India 45.73 46.67 53.41 58.55 60.59 61.96 62.24 63.43 59.76 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.84 63.39 38.7 Russia 30.37 29.41 31.06 31.86 36.31 47.98 62.87 52.69 34.37 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.60 56.43 121.0 South Africa 7.32 7.26 8.21 9.65 10.77 11.22 11.74 12.08 10.68 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.29 12.33 54.3 Memo: USA nominal effective rate 100.19 98.53 102.00 104.76 110.57 114.05 119.74 121.50 109.31 109.43 110.61 111.67 112.66 113.83 115.67 117.82 119.65 121.73 121.39 121.04 122.06 122.85 28.2 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Sep-12 '08 3 1 Oil price, $/b, nominal 79 104 105 104 100 75 52 60 108 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 56 -43.1 Non - Oil Index 2 .. 97 87 80 74 71 66 64 77 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 64 .. 3 Metals and Minerals Index 103 117 99 94 89 83 74 73 87 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 67 -35.5 Baltic Dry Index 4 2755 1545 916 1215 954 1105 614 629 912 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 915 -80.9 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 271 | July 17, 2015