Global Monthly December 2017 • • • • • Percent Percent 3.0 World EM7 (RHS) 4.8 2.9 4.7 • 2.8 4.6 2.7 4.5 2.6 4.4 Jul-17 Sep-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 • • • December 2017 Percent, quarter-on-quarter annualized 6 2010-15 average 5 4 3 2 1 0 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 Index, 50+=expansion Index 54 New export orders 2,000 Baltic Dry (RHS) 1,500 52 1,000 50 500 48 0 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jan-17 Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year 5 GDP 10 4 Industrial production (RHS) 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 2013 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2 December 2017 Index, 100=2008Q1 110 Euro Area Germany 105 100 95 90 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent, year-on-year Headline Core 2 1 0 -1 -2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent of GDP 8 Current account Net capital flows 4 Change in reserves 0 -4 -8 2017Q3 2010-14 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H2 2017H1 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 50 -50 0 100 150 250 200 300 Jun-17 Jun-17 Percent Percent 1994 1996 Basis points Jul-17 Jul-17 1998 Brazil Russia 2000 Aug-17 Aug-17 South Africa 2002 India Poland 2004 Sep-17 Sep-17 2006 2008 Oct-17 Oct-17 2010 2012 Turkey Mexico 2014 Nov-17 Nov-17 2016 2017 Dec-17 Dec-17 December 2017 December 2017 Index, 100=Jan. 2, 2017 130 World Advanced economies EMDEs 120 110 100 Jan-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 US$, billions 70 EAP LAC MNA 60 ECA SA SSA 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sep-16 Sep-17 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Mar-16 Mar-17 May-16 May-17 Nov-16 Nov-17 mb/d Balance US$/bbl 3 Price (RHS) 120 2 100 1 80 0 60 -1 -2 40 -3 20 2018 2010 2012 2014 2016 5 December 2017 Index, 100=2010 150 Energy Metals 130 Agriculture 110 90 70 50 30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 mb/d 16 Saudi Arabia Other Gulf 14 Non-Gulf 12 10 8 6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 US$/bbl Range 90 Average U.S. Shale 80 70 60 50 40 30 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 6 December 2017 mmt 6 China OECD 5 Other non-OECD 4 3 2 1 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Percent 40 Maize Rice 35 Wheat 30 25 20 15 10 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Index, 100=2010 150 Energy Metals 120 Agriculture 90 60 30 0 1985 1990 1980 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 7 December 2017 Global Economic Prospects - January 2018 (forthcoming) Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2017 Global Economic Prospects - June 2017: A Fragile Recovery Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Imperfections: A Survey The Internet and Chinese Exports in the Pre-Alibaba Era Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply Microfinance and Economic Development The Impacts of Safety Nets in Africa: What Are We Learning? Gender and Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review of Constraints and Effective Interventions FDI Spillovers and High-growth Firms in Developing Countries Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-off? How Much Oil Is the Islamic State Group Producing? Evidence from Remote Sensing What are the Effects of Expanding a Social Pension Program on Extreme Poverty and Labor Supply? Evidence from Mexico’s Pension Program for the Elderly Political Economy of Reform World Development Report 2018: LEARNING to Realize Education’s Promise Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) Recent releases: October 24, 2017 - December 6, 2017 Upcoming releases: December 7, 2017 - December 25, 2017 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous UK 10/25/17 GDP Q3 1.5 % 1.55 % 1.5 % Eurozone 12/7/17 GDP Q3 2.3 % South Korea 10/25/17 GDP Q3 3.6 % 3.2 % 2.7 % Mexico 12/7/17 CPI NOV 6.4% United States 10/27/17 GDP Q3 2.3 % - 2.2 % Japan 12/7/17 GDP Q3 2.5 % France 10/31/17 GDP Q3 2.2 % - 1.8 % Hungary 12/8/17 CPI NOV 2.2 % Mexico 10/31/17 GDP Q3 1.6% 1.5% 1.9% Brazil 12/8/17 CPI NOV 2.7% Indonesia 11/6/2017 GDP Q3 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% China 12/8/17 CPI NOV 1.9 % Netherland 11/14/17 GDP Q3 3.0 % 3.4 % 3.3% Czech Republic 12/11/17 CPI NOV 2.9 % Italy 11/14/17 GDP Q3 1.8 % 1.65 % 1.5 % Poland 12/11/17 CPI NOV 2.1 % Poland 11/14/17 GDP Q3 4.7 % - 4.0% Romania 12/12/17 CPI NOV 2.6 % Euro Area 11/14/17 GDP Q3 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.3 % UK 12/12/17 CPI OCT 3.0 % Portugal 11/14/17 GDP Q3 2.5 % 2.8 % 2.9 % South Africa 12/13/17 CPI NOV 4.8 % Philippines 11/14/17 GDP Q3 6.9 % 6.3 % 6.7% United States 12/13/17 CPI NOV 2.0 % Malaysia 11/17/17 GDP Q3 6.2 % 5.85 % 5.8 % Finland 12/14/17 CPI NOV 0.5 % Thailand 11/20/17 GDP Q3 4.3 % 3.95 % 3.8% France 12/14/17 CPI NOV 1.1 % Germany 11/23/17 GDP Q3 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.3% Bulgaria 12/14/17 CPI NOV 2.5 % Czech Republic 12/1/17 GDP Q3 5.0 % 5.0% 4.7% Portugal 12/14/17 CPI NOV 1.4 % Brazil 12/1/17 GDP Q3 1.4 % 1.3 % 0.4% Eurozone 12/18/17 CPI NOV 1.4 % Greece 12/4/17 GDP Q3 1.3 % 1.0% 0.8 % United States 12/21/17 GDP Q3 2.2 % Romania 12/5/17 GDP Q3 8.6 % 8.8 % 5.9% France 12/22/17 GDP Q3 1.8 % Hungary 12/5/17 GDP Q3 3.9 % 3.6% 3.2 % UK 12/22/17 GDP Q3 1.5 % South Africa 12/5/17 GDP Q3 0.8 % 1.0% 1.1 % Japan 12/25/17 CPI NOV 0.2 % 8 December 2017 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) 2016 2017 2016 2017 2015 2016 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Industrial Production, sa 1 World 1.8 2.0 4.9 3.7 5.0 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.8 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 Advanced economies 0.2 0.2 4.0 1.5 4.4 2.4 2.0 2.6 1.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.7 Emerging market and developing economies 3.5 3.9 6.0 5.9 5.6 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.0 4.4 5.6 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.2 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -1.2 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.0 3.3 1.0 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.9 1.0 2.3 3.3 3.1 - Other EMDE 5.1 5.1 7.5 6.8 5.8 4.2 5.4 5.3 5.8 5.3 6.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 5.8 6.2 5.7 East Asia and Pacific 5.8 5.9 6.3 7.2 6.4 4.6 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.1 7.4 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.0 5.9 6.5 6.0 East Asia excl. China 3.6 4.6 4.2 4.9 2.2 7.9 4.4 6.3 4.6 5.1 6.0 4.8 5.6 0.8 3.5 4.8 6.0 - Europe and Central Asia 1.5 2.0 9.3 5.4 8.0 2.5 2.7 2.7 4.3 1.4 4.3 4.4 6.4 4.9 6.7 6.0 6.1 5.4 Latin America and Caribbean -2.8 -2.4 -0.5 0.8 0.6 1.9 -0.4 1.2 0.1 0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 - Middle East and North Africa -3.3 -7.0 25.0 20.0 21.1 11.4 -4.7 10.3 13.1 17.1 4.7 21.0 20.3 23.1 30.8 15.3 12.4 - South Asia 3.5 5.2 6.7 4.9 1.6 5.1 5.1 2.8 4.2 1.9 5.4 4.6 3.5 0.1 3.9 4.5 5.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa -0.3 0.9 -2.5 -4.4 2.9 4.2 1.1 -0.9 0.1 -2.5 -2.1 -0.5 -1.9 -2.7 -0.5 1.1 -0.6 - Inflation, sa 2 World 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.6 2.2 2.3 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 Advanced economies 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 Emerging market and developing economies 2.4 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.5 Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.6 Other EMDE 1.0 1.1 1.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 1.6 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.4 East Asia and Pacific 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.2 Europe and Central Asia 1.9 0.4 1.0 2.4 2.4 2.7 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.6 Latin America and Caribbean 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.7 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.5 Middle East and North Africa 1.8 2.7 2.0 2.6 1.5 1.1 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.9 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.3 South Asia 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.5 3.4 4.6 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.9 4.8 4.9 3.9 3.0 3.4 3.9 3.8 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.6 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.1 4.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.8 4.9 4.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 3.8 5.0 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2016 2017 2016 2017 2015 2016 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Ju Jul Aug Sep Oct Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World -11.6 -3.0 8.8 19.4 3.0 12.1 5.1 4.0 11.0 7.7 12.9 3.9 11.2 7.6 10.2 10.7 11.2 - Advanced economies -11.4 -0.8 5.4 19.4 1.4 17.3 6.3 5.6 10.2 8.1 10.7 1.2 10.4 6.6 9.9 10.5 11.3 - Emerging market and developing economies -11.9 -6.5 15.4 19.6 5.9 3.2 3.4 1.6 12.6 6.9 17.0 8.8 12.8 9.6 10.6 11.0 10.9 - Commodity-exporting EMDEs -24.2 -9.2 29.4 39.3 -12.1 13.1 8.9 7.8 26.5 19.1 23.2 13.3 19.4 9.7 16.1 16.1 14.9 - Other EMDEs -3.7 -4.6 10.3 12.3 14.3 0.0 1.8 -0.4 7.5 2.2 14.7 7.1 10.3 9.5 8.6 9.2 9.5 9.9 East Asia and Pacific -3.5 -6.1 11.0 13.1 16.1 -1.6 1.8 -2.1 8.8 2.2 15.6 8.9 11.3 9.3 10.4 8.1 9.8 9.9 Europe and Central Asia -20.7 -6.1 19.7 35.0 -4.1 16.3 6.5 7.6 22.5 12.4 20.8 5.6 19.3 10.9 11.3 19.8 16.3 - Latin America and Caribbean -11.8 -2.3 14.7 27.9 -2.9 5.7 10.1 10.9 14.8 12.3 17.4 9.7 11.5 12.5 10.6 11.4 10.4 16.5 Middle East and North Africa -27.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -4.0 0.7 31.8 10.7 -8.7 20.8 1.5 2.2 3.1 0.0 11.2 6.6 -1.6 -3.1 12.2 10.4 15.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa -26.9 -14.7 29.1 45.8 -14.6 - 1.0 3.4 22.6 25.8 19.6 8.7 14.0 13.1 - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World -6.9 -5.2 23.9 21.8 16.0 -2.8 3.6 -1.6 11.5 5.4 10.3 -6.2 25.4 7.2 21.2 16.1 5.6 - Advanced economies -12.7 -3.2 2.6 21.1 2.4 13.8 2.6 1.4 9.6 3.4 9.2 1.9 10.3 5.0 10.7 9.4 9.1 - Emerging market and developing economies -3.3 -6.3 38.9 22.1 24.6 -11.2 4.1 -3.3 12.6 6.6 11.0 -10.4 34.6 8.5 27.7 20.4 3.6 21.5 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -1.0 -7.1 44.6 17.4 34.2 -16.3 3.8 -5.5 11.9 2.1 8.8 -15.4 39.7 7.3 31.5 22.4 -0.6 - Other EMDEs -11.4 -3.1 21.4 39.4 -3.1 8.7 5.4 4.3 14.9 22.8 18.8 11.1 17.5 12.6 15.4 14.1 17.2 15.9 East Asia and Pacific -13.1 -3.6 22.7 49.9 -11.2 11.2 5.9 5.7 17.0 33.7 20.5 12.5 17.9 13.5 15.7 13.9 18.8 17.8 Europe and Central Asia -20.8 -1.2 11.6 42.7 12.9 16.2 6.1 8.4 20.9 10.0 14.4 7.6 22.9 13.6 26.4 16.6 18.3 - Latin America and Caribbean -9.9 -7.4 4.8 26.1 -9.0 9.3 1.4 3.6 11.0 5.1 13.3 -1.3 12.3 6.1 7.3 9.1 4.8 15.6 Middle East and North Africa 1.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -13.2 -5.4 58.0 33.2 13.0 -16.3 12.0 2.8 14.8 21.6 40.5 42.1 31.1 13.6 19.1 19.7 17.6 9.4 Sub-Saharan Africa -7.7 -13.9 -7.7 - - - -9.2 -12.2 - - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ 1 World -5.7 -2.0 -2.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 -1.4 -0.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 Advanced economies 2.2 3.2 -1.1 3.5 2.9 1.7 -0.8 0.0 1.6 0.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 -0.3 Emerging market and developing economies -10.7 -5.3 -3.7 0.5 1.5 1.7 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -11.1 -4.5 -2.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 - Other EMDEs -10.3 -5.7 -4.3 0.5 2.0 2.2 -2.0 -1.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 East Asia and Pacific -12.4 -7.3 -4.7 0.5 1.7 2.1 -2.3 -1.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 Europe and Central Asia -6.8 3.4 -4.2 2.9 3.2 3.1 -1.8 -1.6 1.9 0.6 0.3 -0.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 Latin America and Caribbean -5.3 1.4 -1.0 0.5 1.7 1.0 -0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 Middle East and North Africa -17.7 -10.7 -2.4 -2.0 -1.8 - -1.0 0.2 -1.6 -0.6 0.2 -1.2 -0.3 -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 - - South Asia 10.9 3.6 -3.0 2.1 4.5 2.4 -1.6 -0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.2 -0.1 Sub-Saharan Africa -12.7 -4.7 3.7 3.2 0.8 - 0.7 3.8 1.3 2.4 -0.5 3.5 -1.2 -1.6 2.3 -1.8 - - 9 December 2017 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period ) 2016 2017 2016 2017 MRV 1 2015 2016 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. federal funds effective 0.13 0.40 0.45 0.70 0.95 1.15 0.55 0.66 0.66 0.79 0.91 0.90 1.04 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.16 ECB repo 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.32 0.74 0.92 1.07 1.20 1.32 0.98 1.03 1.04 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.26 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.36 1.43 1.51 EURIBOR 3-months -0.02 -0.26 -0.31 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 - -0.33 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield 2.12 1.84 2.12 2.44 2.25 2.24 2.50 2.44 2.42 2.47 2.29 2.29 2.18 2.32 2.21 2.19 2.35 - 2.34 German Bund, 10 year 0.54 0.14 0.18 0.35 0.30 0.46 0.30 0.34 0.32 0.39 0.25 0.36 0.28 0.55 0.42 0.41 0.42 - 0.38 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan emerging markets 415 410 369 340 325 322 370 354 338 329 331 320 325 327 325 314 306 320 315 Asia 224 221 197 175 169 161 198 185 173 166 173 167 166 163 163 157 148 153 154 Europe 348 302 283 261 242 234 282 272 258 253 250 237 240 243 234 224 226 244 233 Latin America and the Caribbean 540 537 475 445 427 428 481 463 442 431 431 420 430 435 435 416 407 422 420 Middle East 456 517 467 396 362 383 438 416 396 377 350 353 382 382 382 384 381 421 401 Africa 415 518 436 389 386 380 422 401 387 380 400 376 383 394 378 367 360 359 341 Stock indexes (end of period) Global (MSCI) 399 424 424 449 465 487 424 433 445 449 455 464 465 478 478 487 497 505 502 Advanced economies ($ index) 1663 1761 1761 1854 1916 2001 1761 1792 1839 1854 1878 1912 1916 1961 1960 2001 2037 2077 2064 United States (S&P 500) 2044 2258 2258 2363 2423 2519 2258 2279 2364 2363 2384 2421 2423 2470 2472 2519 2575 2648 2630 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1474 1475 1475 1547 1534 1571 1475 1463 1501 1547 1564 1576 1534 1526 1512 1571 1600 1563 1565 Japan (Nikkei 225) 18817 19302 19302 18909 20033 20356 19302 19035 19342 18909 19197 19836 20033 19974 19720 20356 22198 22730 22485 Emerging market and 794 861 861 958 1011 1082 861 909 936 958 978 1005 1011 1066 1088 1082 1119 1121 1118 developing economies (MSCI) EM Asia 404 419 419 474 512 543 419 443 459 474 484 505 512 538 544 543 571 572 569 EM Europe 244 295 295 301 304 331 295 302 296 301 313 308 304 315 336 331 330 330 331 EM Europe and Middle East 211 248 248 252 251 268 248 253 249 252 259 255 251 261 274 268 268 265 267 EM Latin America & Caribbean 1830 2341 2341 2611 2544 2917 2341 2516 2600 2611 2601 2532 2544 2752 2873 2917 2809 2719 2743 Exchange rates (LCU / USD) Advanced economies Euro Area 0.90 0.90 0.93 0.94 0.91 0.85 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 Japan 121.00 108.80 109.63 113.63 111.10 110.96 116.28 115.03 112.96 112.91 110.02 112.36 110.91 112.31 109.78 110.80 112.93 112.81 112.17 Emerging market and developing economies Brazil 3.33 3.49 3.28 3.14 3.21 3.16 3.35 3.20 3.10 3.13 3.14 3.20 3.30 3.20 3.15 3.13 3.19 3.26 3.26 China 6.29 6.65 6.84 6.89 6.86 6.67 6.92 6.89 6.87 6.90 6.89 6.88 6.81 6.77 6.67 6.57 6.62 6.62 6.62 Egypt 7.70 10.12 14.71 17.82 18.10 17.77 18.56 18.68 17.01 17.76 18.09 18.10 18.11 17.92 17.75 17.65 17.64 17.68 17.69 India 64.14 67.19 67.39 66.97 64.48 64.29 67.86 68.06 67.01 65.83 64.52 64.46 64.45 64.44 63.97 64.46 65.07 64.85 64.46 Russia 61.34 67.06 62.95 58.67 57.17 58.93 62.03 59.76 58.42 57.83 56.53 56.88 58.10 59.72 59.42 57.66 57.76 58.97 58.90 South Africa 12.77 14.71 13.92 13.24 13.21 13.19 13.88 13.60 13.17 12.95 13.46 13.25 12.91 13.15 13.25 13.17 13.71 14.06 13.74 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate 114.7 119.7 122.5 123.4 120.7 116.6 124.9 124.8 123.0 122.5 121.6 121.0 119.4 117.9 116.4 115.4 117.4 117.6 116.9 (index) Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. 1 MRV = most recent value. 2016 2017 2016 2017 MRV 1 2015 2016 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Energy 2 65 55 64 68 64 65 68 69 69 65 67 64 60 62 65 68 71 76 76 Non-energy 2 82 80 83 86 82 84 84 85 87 85 83 83 82 83 84 85 86 86 86 2 Agriculture 89 89 90 91 88 87 89 91 91 89 88 89 87 88 86 87 87 87 87 Metals and minerals 2 68 64 71 78 74 81 75 76 79 79 75 73 72 76 83 84 84 84 82 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 51 43 49 53 50 50 53 54 54 51 52 50 46 48 50 53 55 60 61 Gold ($/toz) 1161 1249 1221 1219 1258 1278 1157 1192 1234 1231 1267 1246 1260 1237 1283 1314 1280 1282 1282 Baltic Dry Index 711 676 994 938 1023 1138 1031 913 760 1142 1229 979 861 906 1144 1363 1484 1455 1626 Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. 1 MRV = most recent value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. 10