For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS Data Country: Tanzania CAS Year: FY11 CAS Period: FY12 – FY15 CLR Period: FY12 – FY16 Date of this review: March 6, 2018 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory WBG Performance: Good Fair 3. Executive Summary i. This review of Tanzania’s Completion Report of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) covers the period of the original CAS, FY12-15, and the Country Assistance Strategy Progress Report (CASPR), FY14-16. The CAS period was extended at CASPR to allow the WBG to work with the new administration in preparing the next Country Partnership Framework (CPF). ii. Tanzania is a low-income country with a GNI per capita of US$900 in 2016. During the CAS period, the economy grew steadily at 6.7 percent annually compared with an average of 3.5 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, a recent IMF program review report (January 2018) underscores that recent signs of weakening economic activity coexist with large infrastructure gaps, a business climate that has worsened, budget payment arrears in part owing to the electric utility’s (TANESCO) financial difficulties, and problems with tax collections, administration, and policy. Governance indicators on the efficiency and transparency in public management did not improve during the CAS period. Moreover, in the 2018 Doing Business report, Tanzania ranks 137 out of 190 countries, which compares less favorably with its SSA neighbors and reveals weak private sector competitiveness. Hence, sustained reforms to enhance budget credibility and implementation as well as to improve the business climate are needed to achieve strong growth led by the private sector as intended by the government. iii. Based on the international poverty line, 48.8 percent of the population lived in poverty in 2012. The national poverty headcount for the mainland declined from 34.4 percent in 2007 to 28.2 percent in 2012 largely due to a decline in urban poverty while rural poverty remains high. Human development also remains a challenging area. While Tanzania’s Human Development Index improved from 0.392 in 2000 to 0.521 in 2014, with some gains in education indicators, the country was unable to achieve half of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). iv. The FY12-15 Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) was aligned with priorities in the government’s five-year strategy (MKUKUTA II) and the concurrent Zanzibar Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction (MKUZA II). The CAS had three strategic pillars and one cross-cutting theme: (i) promote inclusive and sustainable, private sector-led growth; (ii) build infrastructure and deliver services; (iii) strengthen human capital and safety nets, and (iv) promote accountability and governance. Following the 2014 CASPR, the three pillars and the cross-cutting theme were consolidated into two strategic clusters to align with the corporate twin goals: (a) productive investments for growth of labor-intensive industries and job creation; and (b) programs that target CLR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator Anis A. Dani, IEGEC Consultant Juan José Pablo Fajnzylber, Manager, IEGEC Fernández-Ansola, Takatoshi Kamezawa IEGEC Consultant Lourdes Pagaran Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGEC CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group reduction of extreme poverty and improvements in quality of social services. However, the CASPR retained the same 11 objectives covering 10 sectors, and adjusted some of the indicators. The CASPR intended a more focused set of WBG interventions to address implementation challenges, yet the number of lending operations approved in the two fiscal years following the CASPR – 15 operations over FY15-16 – was similar to that for the period preceding it – 16 over FY12-14. The new commitments following the CASPR accounted for 56% of the total new commitments over the CAS period. In effect, the CAS program remained broadly unchanged in substance and was not more focused after the CASPR than before. v. During the CAS period, the Bank approved a total of $3.33 billion in new lending for 31 operations, compared with US$2.6 billion at the start (or 28 operations). The lending portfolio composition changed significantly as the program progressed. During the previous CAS period (FY07-11), investment project financing (IPF) accounted for 78 percent of lending commitments while the remainder was allocated to development policy financing (DPF). During the period of the CAS under review, the distribution of lending commitments reflected the reduced prominence of IPFs (54 percent) and the increased importance Program-for-Results (PforR) operations (27 percent). Sector DPFs accounted for 19 percent of commitments, compared to a 22 percent of PRSCs during the previous CAS (FY0711). Taken together, DPFs and PforRs accounted for close to half of the lending volume. New lending included seven sector DPFs ($640 million) and five PforR operations ($897 million), with the remaining 19 operations being IPFs. IFC had net commitments of US$174.6 million. MIGA reinsured coverage to an agricultural investor in FY14 with total gross exposure of $28.9 million. IDA delivered 23 ESW pieces and 26 technical assistance products. IFC approved fourteen new AS projects in the financial, agricultural, and energy sectors, and in investment climate reforms. vi. The overall development outcome of WBG support is rated as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Under Focus Area I, Tanzania made good progress on increasing access to electricity—with uneven results on service quality and sustainability—and some progress on improving management of natural resources and improving road conditions. However, there was limited progress in increasing productivity and commercialization of agriculture and improving financial intermediation. The WBG also was unable to achieve its objective of improving the business environment, improving access to and quality of water and sanitation services, and improving access to other transport services related to air and rail. Under Focus Area II, there was good progress on improving access and quality of education and in the rapid scaling up of conditional cash transfers under the access to safety nets objective. While there was some improvement in access to and quality of health services, the large volume of donor support for the health sector and increased access to health facilities was expected to bring better results. The reduction in MMR has slowed and remained high compared to other neighboring countries. The public works dimension of the safety nets program also lagged, and there is limited evidence of progress on improving efficiency and transparency in public management. vii. WBG performance is rated as Fair. The initial CAS design was broadly aligned with the government’s development strategy, and the lending program was largely supported well by ESWs, especially in education and water. The Policy Notes prepared for the new government in 2015 provided the basis for dialogue with the government in key priority areas. The Bank coordinated closely with development partners through sector working groups, and shared with partners a pooled funding mechanism to reduce transaction costs. Average portfolio quality at exit during the program was better than its comparators. The WBG displayed flexibility in the use of lending instruments and by extending the CAS. At the same time, the WBG program could have been more focused and selective, especially with respect to lending. The CASPR adjusted the pillars to align with the WBG’s corporate goals, but it did not revise the CAS objectives. Changes in the results framework—which remained weak at closure—did not alter its substance, and several interventions lacked credible links with CAS objectives. At progress report stage, program implementation was slow owing to institutional challenges faced by sector ministries using pooled funding mechanisms. Yet, discounting these challenges, lending was scaled up further following the progress report and lending instruments were diversified. The rapid shift to new lending instruments, such as PforRs, could test constrained institutional capacity. Moreover, IEG’s project ratings deteriorated towards the For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group end of the CAS period, especially for operations using pooled funding (including agriculture and basic health services). Overall, risks to the program were identified; in some instances, however, they were not sufficiently elaborated and risk mitigation measures proved inadequate, as in the case of political and governance risks. There is no evidence of joint Bank-IFC projects, and opportunities to collaborate were missed in the power and financial sectors. Despite extending the CAS by a year, the preparation of the CPF was delayed by at least another 18 months beyond the CAS expiration. Finally, the pooled funding mechanism with development partners proved challenging for sector implementing agencies owing to multiple fiduciary and reporting requirements. viii. IEG agrees with the CLR lessons identified in the CLR: (i) about realism regarding the government’s absorptive capacity; (ii) the need to pilot, monitor and refine programs before scaling them up and to understand and take account of the political economy when designing the country program; (iii) the importance of knowledge products in strengthening the policy dialogue; (iv) the necessity to select lending instruments that are suitable to the country and sector context, and (v) the need for a strong M&E and a realistic results framework. ix. IEG underscores the relevance of CLR lessons (i), (ii) and (iv), and elaborates them further as follows: • First, Bank programs need to be tailored to existing capacities and to commit firmly to capacity building that helps effective program implementation. Tanzania’s PforR’s—which intend to leverage co-financing from other donors while lowering administrative demands on the country—contain capacity-building components. IEG’s early evaluation of the PforR instrument 1 includes a caution that is worth heeding in the country. While capacity building is an important part of PforRs, specific capacity goals need to be defined clearly and implementation of capacity-building programs delivered in a timely manner. • Second, design and implementation of reform programs require a good understanding of the political economy of reform irrespective of financing modalities. In Tanzania, the shift from PRSCs to sector DPFs intended to improve the effectiveness of Bank interventions for reforming specific sectors. However, underperformance of the recently closed DPO operations in energy suggests that the Bank’s limited understanding of political economy and governance risks in power sector reform led to over-ambitious objectives (medium to long-term measures) and limited ability to respond to implementation challenges. x. IEG adds another lesson: • The WBG should seize on opportunities to exercise selectivity. In Tanzania, the large number of development partners in the country provided an opportunity to be more selective and avoid stretching WBG resources across a large number of sectors. In practice, based on government demand, the Bank moved well beyond the sectors in which it had agreed to take the lead at the beginning of the CAS period. This may have affected its overall achievement of development results, as reflected in the fact that development outcomes were weaker in the sectors in which the WBG had not initially agreed to take the lead under the CAS. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. Tanzania is a low-income country with a GNI per capita of US$900 in 2016. Based on the international poverty line, 48.8 percent of the population lived in poverty in 2012. The national poverty headcount for the mainland declined from 34.4 percent in 2007 to 28.2 percent in 2012 largely due to a decline in urban poverty, while rural poverty remains high. Access to education has improved, and progression to secondary school surged from 20 1 Independent Evaluation Group, Program-for-Results: An Early-Stage Assessment of the Process and Effects of a New Lending Instrument, Washington D.C.: World Bank Group, 2016. For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group percent in 2000 to almost 60 percent in 2012 (SCD, 2017). Although Tanzania’s Human Development Index improved from 0.392 in 2000 to 0.521 in 2014, with gains in some education indicators, the country did not achieve half of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), including goals related to eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, improving maternal health, improving environmental sustainability, and some of the gender equality indicators. Rural access to water and sanitation remains very limited. 2. In the 2018 Doing Business Report, Tanzania’s ranking of 137 is significantly below its Sub- Saharan neighbors—Kenya (80), Rwanda (41) and Uganda (122). Annual economic growth was 6.7 percent during the CAS period—strong compared with 3.5 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa—driven by construction, services, and basic manufacturing. But recent signs of weakening economic activity coexist with large infrastructure gaps and a business climate that has worsened. Human development, increased investment in infrastructure, as well as improving governance and the business environment remain key imperatives. The government reflected these imperatives in its development plans (MKUKUTA II and MKUZA II). The FY12-15 CAS was aligned with the priorities in the government’s five-year strategy (MKUKUTA II) and the Zanzibar Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (MKUZA II), and thus broadly consistent with country challenges and cognizant of Tanzania’s growth constraints. 3. The CAS had three pillars and one cross-cutting theme: (i) promote inclusive and sustainable, private sector-led growth; (ii) build infrastructure and deliver services; (iii) strengthen human capital and safety nets, and (iv) promote accountability and governance. At CAS progress report stage, the WBG country program pillars were consolidated to two to align with the twin corporate goals while keeping the original 11 objectives covering 10 sectors. The two strategic clusters were: (i) productive investments for growth of labor-intensive industries and job creation; and (ii) programs that target reduction of extreme poverty and improvements in quality of social services. To maintain its relevance to the country and operational context, the CASPR added new operations in agriculture/agro-business, energy and extractives, and transport and trade, as well as two DPOs on business environment, and open government and public finance. 4. Relevance of Design. The combination of lending and analytical work was expected to underpin the achievement of program objectives by supporting reforms across the focus areas and helping in the dialogue with the government. ESWs made important contributions to the program by deepening sector knowledge and fostering policy dialogue. However, some interventions were not directly contributing to the achievement of the CAS objectives and outcomes. For instance, the CLR lists eight IDA operations and four IFC operations supporting the first program objective, on constraints for doing business and financial intermediation. In fact, only one of these interventions directly focuses on the business environment (the Business Environment and Industry Development for Jobs DPO), and it was approved at the end of FY16—too late to have meaningful impact on the CAS objective. The agricultural commercialization objective was supported by a long list of interventions, but these were not focused on diversification and commercialization of agriculture—the primary focus of the objective. Selectivity 5. The CAS was selective with three focus areas, and later consolidated into two to align with the WBG’s corporate twin goals. However, selectivity was more limited within each area of focus: the 11 objectives covering 10 sectors resulted in a fragmented program that tested the weak institutional capacity of the government. The large number of development partners in Tanzania would have allowed the WBG to be more selective, with the Bank concentrating on areas where it had agreed to take the lead or where there was a strong potential for achieving development results based on its comparative advantage and the presence of strong government demand. 2 The CASPR provided an opportunity to adjust the country program, but changes were cosmetic and simply regrouped the CAS objectives around the WBG corporate goals and some changes in indicators. Following the CASPR (dated June 3, 2014), new lending commitments did not decelerate: 48 percent of the operations 2 In the original CAS the Bank had agreed to take lead on energy, water, health, public sector reform, environment, and macro-economic management. For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group approved during the CAS period and 56 percent of the respective commitments occurred in FY15-16. This went counter to the CASPR intention to address slow program implementation through more focused lending. In fact, there was no real effort to make the program more selective and focused. A challenge for the next Bank program will be to identify fewer priorities that are more transformative, and can help build Tanzania’s ability to mobilize the private sector to supplement public investments and reduce significantly the number of poor people (about 12 million are still below the national poverty line—same as in 2007—according to the SCD). Alignment 6. The program was broadly aligned with WBG’s corporate goals, particularly following the CAS progress report. At the CASPR, the adjustments in the first strategic cluster aimed at increasing productivity and growth of labor-intensive industries and job creation, which would contribute to shared prosperity. The adjustments in the second cluster—which combined human development and governance objectives—aimed to reduce extreme poverty by increasing incomes and enhancing access of the poor to quality social services. The increased investment in conditional cash transfers during the latter part of the CAS period increased the efficacy of safety nets to reduce poverty. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 7. For this review, and in line with the terminology of the Shared Approach, the Strategic Clusters are treated as Focus Areas, and the CAS outcomes are labeled as objectives. Focus Area I: Productive Investments for Growth of Labor-Intensive Industries and Job Creation 8. This focus area had seven objectives : (1) address constraints for doing business and improve financial intermediation; (2) increased productivity and commercialization of agriculture; (3) increased sustainability and improved management of natural resources, including natural gas; (4) increased access, quality and sustainability of electricity; (5) increased access to and quality of transport services; (6) increased access to and quality of water and sanitation services; (7) improved access to and management of urban services. 9. Objective #1. Address constraints for doing business and improve financial intermediation. This objective was supported by the Private Sector/MSME Competitiveness Project (FY06), the Financial Sector Support Project (FSSP—FY06), the Business Environment and Industry Development for Jobs DPO (FY16), and a TA on public-private partnerships completed in FY14. IFC contributed to the increase in the use of formal and semi-formal financial products through its investment and advisory services, and support to microfinance institutions and its client banks to increase lending for microfinance and SMEs. It also assisted the mobile financial services industry through its ongoing AS project in Tanzania by supporting the creation of a set of interoperable standards. The objective had two indicators: (i) reduction in number of days to start a business; and (ii) increase in the proportion of adults that use financial services provided by formal and semi-formal financial service providers. 10. On the first indicator, the CLR reports on actions initiated by the Government in 2012 to facilitate business start-ups by reducing requirements to obtain a business license, and customs reforms to facilitate trade across borders. However, these efforts had very little effect on the indicator: the number of days to start a business changed marginally from 29 in 2011 to 26 in 2016, against a target of 10 days. The indicator was Not Achieved. 11. On the second indicator, the CLR reports that the proportion of adult population with access to formal and semi-formal financial services increased in the mainland from 15.9 percent in 2009 to 57.4 percent in 2013, and in Zanzibar from 14.7 percent in 2009 to 37 percent in 2013. IEG could not verify this information. The FSSP ICRR reported that the proportion of adults using formal and semi-formal financial institutions increased from 11 percent in 2006 to 17 percent in 2013 (versus the target of 22 percent in 2016). The 2013 World Bank’s Enterprise Survey indicates that only 18.5 percent of firms in For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group Tanzania used the formal banking system to finance investments. In addition, a conventional measure of financial intermediation shows that the ratio of financial sector claims to the private sector was virtually unchanged at around 14-15 percent during 2013-17 (IMF Seventh Review Under the Policy- Support Instrument, January 16, 2018). On balance, and based on various data sources, this indicator was Partially Achieved. 12. In sum, with no progress on the first indicator and partial progress on the second, this objective was Partially Achieved. 13. Objective #2. Increased productivity and commercialization of agriculture. This objective was supported by the Agriculture Sector Development (ASDP)(FY06), the Accelerated Food Security (FY09), the Eastern Africa Agricultural Productivity (FY09) and the Expanding Rice Production projects (FY15). The most significant intervention was the ASDP that closed in October 2016 and was rated Unsatisfactory by IEG. The objective had one indicator: crop yields for maize and rice in target areas. A second indicator to measure commercialization was dropped at CASPR stage, although the objective was unchanged. 14. Maize yields increased marginally. The CLR reports that maize yields increased to 2.30 tons/hectare in 2015 from a baseline of 1.12 tons/hectare in 2009. However, the previous CASCR (FY11) reports that maize yields had already reached 2.1 tons/ha in 2010. Moreover, independent research from 2015 indicates that maize production quantity and area harvested in Tanzania have risen only slightly, while yields have remained constant or declined. 3 The CLR reports that rice yields increased from 1.73 tons per ha to 2.74 tons/ha, less than the revised target of 3.5 tons/ha for 2016. 4 15. IFC supported existing clients in manufacturing, agribusiness, and the service sector (MAS) through a $30 million project in FY13. One of IFC’s agri-business clients engaged 36,000 farmers in FY12, but the impact on commercialization of the sector is limited. The CLR reports that commercialization of agriculture is incipient: majority of farmers were not selling any of their harvest and less than 10 percent of the country’s livestock were being marketed. A weak business environment had discouraged development of the agricultural value chain. 16. In sum, there was negligible progress on maize yields and some increase in rice yields. However, these measures are based on specific Bank project areas, and yields vary substantially from project to project. Thus, IEG cannot validate the aggregate CLR yield data. There is no evidence on commercialization of agriculture. The objective was Partially Achieved. 17. Objective #3. Increased sustainability and improved management of natural resources, including natural gas. This objective was supported by the Sustainable Management of Mineral Resources Project (FY09) and its additional financing (FY15), the First and Second Power and Gas DPOs (FY13/ FY14), the Energy Sector Capacity Building Project (FY13), and the Lake Victoria Environmental Management Support Project Phase II (FY09). 18. The objective had three indicators: (i) improvement in Tanzania’s policy ranking as a mining investment destination, (ii) amount of on-shore proven natural gas reserves; and (iii) area brought under improved land use and range land management practices in targeted catchments. 19. On the first indicator, Tanzania’s ranking in the Policy Perception Index published by the Fraser Institute improved slightly from the 61st percentile in 2009 to 58th percentile in 2015, enough to meet the target of 2-3 points/places improvement by 2015. On the second indicator, the available evidence indicates proven on-shore reserves of 1.187 TcF as of December 2016 against the 3.5 Tcf target for 2016. Investment in exploration has been subdued owing to slow domestic demand growth, decline in global energy prices, and slow reform progress in the upstream regulatory and policy framework. On the third indicator, the December 2015 ISR for the Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project 3 Aylward, C. and P. Biscaye, “Maize yield trends and agricultural policy in East Africa,” EPAR Technical Report No. 310, University of Washington: Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, November 20, 2015. 4 The previous CASCR (FY11) reports that rice yields had already reached 1.79 tons/ha in 2010, which is higher than the baseline of 1.73 tons/ha used in the CAS (FY12-16). For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group Phase II reports that 7,111hectares have been brought under sustainable land management practices, exceeding the target of 2,000 hectares. 5 20. In sum, there was progress on the perception index indicator, the second indicator was not met, and the third indicator on natural resources and the environment was met. On balance, this objective was Mostly Achieved. 21. Objective #4. Increased access, quality and sustainability of electricity. This objective was supported by the Tanzania Energy Development and the Access Expansion Project (TEDAP) (FY08), the Backbone Transmission Investment Project (FY11), and the Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project (FY13), and the First and Second Power and Gas Sector DPOs (FY13/ FY14). 22. This objective had four indicators: (i) number of people provided with access to electricity by household connections; (ii) improvements in service quality as measured by voltage accessible to households; (iii) availability of high voltage transmission infrastructure; and (iv) improvement in TANESCO’s operational efficiency as measured by increase in collection in targeted areas. 23. As of September 2016, 689,573 people were provided access to electricity by household connections (from a baseline of 34,200 people in 2010), exceeding the target of 252,000 people in 2016. On the second indicator, end-user voltage of 220 volts—the same target that the previous CAS expected for FY12—was achieved from a 2010 baseline of 190 volts. Despite the increased voltage, additional information on service quality suggests that while the number of power outages has decreased, the target for cumulative power outages linked to malfunctions in the subsystems was only partially achieved. 6 On the third indicator, the CLR reports that the target of 225 km of new transmission infrastructure in northern Tanzania was achieved notwithstanding significant delays owing to different fiduciary rules of development partners (AfDB and EIB). 24. On the fourth indicator, the CLR reports that TANESCO’s collection efficiency improved from 70 percent in 2010 to 93.5 percent by September 2016. Yet, collection efficiency is only one measure of operational efficiency and sustainability, and other measures suggest a reversal. The ICR for the First and Second Power Sector DPOs reports that TANESCO’s accounts payable increased by 88 percent in FY2016/17 over the 2012 baseline, against a target of a significant reduction. Taken as a whole, TANESCO’s financial situation is affecting adversely both its operational efficiency and sustainability. In addition, the IMF reports that TANESCO has large arrears to gas and electricity suppliers (0.7 percent of GDP in early 2016), and that financial sustainability of TANESCO has not been achieved (IMF Article IV Staff Report, 2016). 25. In sum, there was good progress on access to electricity by household connections, but uneven results on service quality and sustainability. On balance, this objective was Mostly Achieved. 26. Objective #5. Increased access to and quality of transport services. This objective was supported by the Transport Sector Support Project (TSSP) (FY10), the Inter-Modal and Rail Development Project (FY14), the Second Central Transport Corridor Project (FY08) and its FY13 additional financing, and the Southern Africa Trade and Transport Facilitation Program (FY13). 27. The objective had four indicators: (i) passenger volume at Kigoma, Tabora and Bukoba airports, (ii) number of daily slots available for third party block trains between Dar es Salaam and Isaka Terminal; (iii) number of TEUs shipped by direct project beneficiaries; and (iv) roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads. The CLR reports that except for road transport, the targets for all three indicators related to air and rail transport were not met. The latest ISR for the TSSP reports that 86 percent of roads are in good and fair condition, well above the target of 70 percent. However, sustainability is at risk due to insufficient funding for road maintenance. 5 The target for this indicator was changed at CASPR stage from 45,000 hectares to 2,000 hectares. 6 ICR for the Backbone Transmission Investment Project (FY11). For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group 28. In sum, there was good progress on roads in good and fair condition, but sustainability is at risk, while there was no progress on the first three indicators. This objective was Partially Achieved. 29. Objective #6. Increased access to and quality of water and sanitation services. This objective was supported by the Water Sector Support Project (FY07), the Zanzibar Urban Services Project (FY11). The objective had two indicators: (i) number of people with access to clean and safe water, and (ii) proportion of rural population with access to improved sanitation. The CLR reports that as of June 2015, 17.2 million people in rural areas had access to clean and safe water against a target of 22.5 million by 2016, but access was affected by a high non-functionality rate of water supply facilities. For the second indicator, the CLR reports that the share of rural inhabitants with access to improved sanitation was 12 percent in 2015, well below the target of 35 percent. WDI reports an even lower figure of 8.5 percent. According to the CLR, sanitation remains largely underfunded with responsibility divided across multiple institutions that are not coordinated. 30. In sum, there was limited progress on access to clean and safe water; and no progress on access to improved sanitation. On balance, this objective was Not Achieved. 31. Objective #7. Improved access to and management of urban services. This objective was supported by the Strategic Cities Project (FY10) and the Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project (FY15). This objective had two indicators: (i) people with access to improved public transport services; and (ii) proportion of waste collected and disposed at landfill compared to total waste produced in target areas. The CLR reports that about 840,000 people had access to improved public transport by July 2016, exceeding the target of 543,721 in 2016. No progress has been reported on the second indicator since the landfill only became operational in 2017. 32. In sum, there was good progress on improving public transport services, but no progress on waste collection. On balance, this objective was Partially Achieved. 33. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support to Focus Area I as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Tanzania made good progress on increasing access to electricity—with uneven results on service quality and sustainability—and some progress on improving management of natural resources and improving road condition. However, there was limited progress in increasing productivity and commercialization of agriculture and improving financial intermediation. The WBG was unable to achieve its objective of improving the business environment, improving access to and quality of water and sanitation services, and improving access to other transport services related to air and rail. Focus Area II: Programs that Target Reduction of Extreme Poverty and Improvements in Quality and Delivery of Social Services 34. Focus Area II had four objectives: (i) improved access to and quality of education; (ii) improved access to and quality of health services; (iii) improved access to safety nets; and (iv) improved efficiency and transparency of public management. 35. Objective #8. Improved access to and quality of education. This objective was supported by the Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement Project (FY07), the Secondary Education Development Program II (FY10), the Education Program for Results (EPforR) (FY15) and the Zanzibar Improving Students Prospects Project (FY16). This objective had three indicators: (i) students enrolled in secondary school in Zanzibar; (ii) completion rates at O level (lower secondary education); and (iii) number of primary schools conducting Student Teacher Enrichment Program (STEP). 36. The CLR reports that the target (97,530) for secondary enrollment of boys and girls in Zanzibar had been achieved, but the numbers provided in the CLR could not be verified. The PAD for the FY16 project reports that 89,685 students were enrolled in secondary school in 2016, lower than the numbers reported in the CLR. The CLR acknowledges that enrollment rates at secondary levels were lower than expected because of the government’s decision to retain the policy of an examination requirement in lower grades. The completion rates at O level reached 33.6 percent by mid-2016, compared to the target of 39 percent in 2015. As of November 2015, there were 10,447 primary schools conducting STEP, compared to the target of 5,000 in 2018. For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group 37. In sum, there was good progress on access and quality indicators albeit the information on secondary enrolment could not be verified. On balance, this objective was Mostly Achieved. 38. Objective #9. Improved access to and quality of health services. This objective was supported by the Basic Health Services Project (FY12), the Strengthening Primary Health Care for Results program (PforR) (FY15), and a Health Financing Policy Note (FY12). The objective had one indicator: the proportion of births taking place at health facilities as a proxy of births attended by skilled health workers. A second indicator for this objective on malaria prevention was dropped at CASPR stage. The FY12 project is the most significant intervention supporting this objective which was financed by IDA and other donors through pooled funding. IEG rated the outcome of this project as Moderately Unsatisfactory which proved to be complex in design and implementation. 39. The CLR reports that the proportion of births at health facilities increased from 51 percent in 2008 to 63 percent in 2015, compared to the target of 67 percent. Supplemental information from the ICR review of the FY12 Basic Health Services Project showed that the percentage of births at a health facility reached 62.4 percent in October 2016. The May 2017 ISR of the FY15 Strengthening Primary Health Care for Results project indicates that such percentage reached 65.3 percent in April 2017, showing progress when compared with the 58.3 percent 2012 baseline. Despite progress in the proportion of attended deliveries at health facilities, the reduction in maternal mortality ratio (MMR) has slowed (from 483 per 100,000 in 2011 to 398 per 100,000 in 2015), compared to previous years when it declined from 842 in 2000 and 687 in 2005 (World Development Indicators, 2017). MMR in Tanzania remains relatively high at 398 (per 100,000 live births) in 2015, compared to 319 in Ghana, 343 in Uganda, and 353 in Ethiopia in the same year. 40. Taking into account both access and quality of health services, this objective was Mostly Achieved. 41. Objective #10. Improved access to safety nets. This objective was supported by the Second Social Action Fund (FY05), the Social Action Fund III (FY12), and the Social Safety Nets (FY16). It had two indicators: (i) beneficiaries of conditional cash transfers; and (ii) beneficiaries of public works programs. Bank support enabled a rapid scaling up of conditional cash transfers which reached 4.89 million beneficiaries by January 2016 from a baseline of 6,000 people in 2010, exceeding the target of 4.2 million people in 2015. As of December 2015, the labor intensive public works program, added 55,137 beneficiaries, or less than half of the projected additional people to reach the target of 350,000 beneficiaries. 42. On balance, this objective was Mostly Achieved. 43. Objective #11. Improved efficiency and transparency of public management. This objective was supported by the Performance Results and Accountability Project (FY08) and the programmatic DPO series Open Government and Public Finance Credit (FY16). This objective had four indicators: (i) share of ministries, departments, and executive agencies (MDAs) using performance management systems; (ii) share of development projects that are selected using the Public Investment Manual; (iii) full and timely implementation of census and surveys in the Inter-censal Survey Calendar; and (iv) increased public access to budget documents and transparency. 44. The CLR reports progress on the third indicator, while the three other indicators were not achieved. This objective is rated as Not Achieved. 45. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support under Focus Area II as Moderately Unsatisfactory. There was good progress on improving access and quality of education and the rapid scaling up of conditional cash transfers under the access to safety nets objective. While there was some improvement in access to and quality of health services, the large volume of donor support for the health sector and increased access to health facilities was expected to bring better results. The reduction in MMR has slowed and remained high compared to other neighboring countries. The public works dimension of the safety nets program also lagged, and WBG has made no progress in improving efficiency and transparency in public management. For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group Overall Assessment and Rating 46. The overall development outcome of WBG support is rated as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Only 5 out of 11 objectives were mostly achieved, with another 4 being partially achieved, and two not achieved. Under Focus Area I, Tanzania made good progress on increasing access to electricity—with uneven results on service quality and sustainability—and some progress on improving management of natural resources and improving road conditions. However, there was limited progress in increasing productivity and commercialization of agriculture and improving financial intermediation. The WBG also was unable to achieve its objective of improving the business environment, improving access to and quality of water and sanitation services, and improving access to other transport services related to air and rail. Under Focus Area II, there was good progress on improving access and quality of education and the rapid scaling up of conditional cash transfers under the access to safety nets objective. While there was some improvement in access to and quality of health services, the large volume of donor support for the health sector and increased access to health facilities was expected to bring better results. The reduction in MMR has slowed and remained high compared to other neighboring countries. The public works dimension of the safety nets program also lagged, and WBG has made no progress on improving efficiency and transparency in public management. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area I: Productive Investments for Growth of Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Labor-Intensive Industries and Job Creation Objective 1: Address constraints for doing business and Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved improve financial intermediation Objective 2: Increased productivity and Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved commercialization of agriculture Objective 3: Increased sustainability and improved Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved management of natural resources, including natural gas Objective 4: Increased access, quality and sustainability Achieved Mostly Achieved of electricity Objective 5: Increased access to and quality of Partially Achieved Partially Achieved transport services Objective 6: Increased access to and quality of water Not Achieved Not Achieved and sanitation services Objective 7: Improved access to and management of Partially Achieved Partially Achieved urban services Focus Area II: Programs that Target Reduction of Extreme Poverty and Improvements in Quality and Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Delivery of Social Services Objective 8: Improved access to and quality of Achieved Mostly Achieved education Objective 9: Improved access to and quality of health Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved services Objective 10: Improved access to safety nets Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved Objective 11: Improved efficiency and transparency of Not Achieved Not Achieved public management 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 47. At the beginning of the CAS period, total IDA commitments were $2.57 billion. New lending commitments—planned and unplanned—during the CAS period amounted to $3.33 billion. The major recipients of new lending commitments were in five areas including from social protection, transport, health, and education. During the CAS period, six trust fund (TFs) grants were approved in FY15-16 for For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group a total of $69.1 million. Four of these TFs (total of $66 million or 96 percent of the TFs) were to support the Strengthening Primary Health Care for Results PforR. 48. The lending portfolio composition changed significantly as the program progressed. During the previous CAS period (FY07-11), investment project financing (IPF) accounted for 78 percent of lending commitments while the remainder was allocated to development policy financing (DPF). During the period of the CAS under review, the distribution of lending commitments reflected the reduced prominence of IPFs (54 percent) and the increased importance Program-for-Results (PforR) operations (27 percent). Sector DPFs accounted for 19 percent of commitments, compared to a 22 percent of PRSCs during the previous CAS (FY0711). Taken together, DPFs and PforRs accounted for close to half of the lending volume. New lending included seven sector DPFs ($640 million) and five PforR operations ($897 million), with the remaining 19 operations being IPFs. IFC had net commitments of US$174.6 million. MIGA reinsured coverage to an agricultural investor in FY14 with total gross exposure of $28.9 million. IDA delivered 23 ESW pieces and 26 technical assistance products. IFC approved fourteen new AS projects in the financial, agricultural, and energy sectors, and in investment climate reforms. 49. The shift in lending instruments is notable in two ways: First, the shift from PRSCs to sector DPOs: The lessons from IEG’s Project Performance Assessment Report (PPAR) for the Tanzania PRSCs led to a shift away from broad PRSC budget support to sector DPFs in the hopes of increased implementation effectiveness. Results from a recent ICR for the First and Second Power and Gas Sector DPOs indicate that moving to sector DPOs is not sufficient to achieve success unless there is full commitment to the DPO objectives from both the central government and the implementing ministry (see ICR page 38). 7 Second, the shift from IPF pooled-funding to PforRs: Projects financed by pooled- funding were affected by delays owing to design complexity and to the additional administrative burden from multiple fiduciary systems of different financing partners. The Bank adopted the PforR instrument in several sectors—education, health and rural electrification—to leverage significant co-financing from other donors, while relying on borrower systems to avoid the multiple requirements of basket funds. It is relatively early to assess the effectiveness of the PforR instrument in Tanzania. While the changes in portfolio composition illustrate the Bank’s flexibility—and search for solutions in a difficult program implementation environment—the rapid shift to new lending instruments could test Tanzania’s constrained institutional capacity. 50. During the CAS period, Tanzania’s portfolio performance at exit was better on average than Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Region and the Bank. IEG outcome ratings for the closed Tanzania portfolio averaged at 69.2 percent Moderately Satisfactory (MS) or better by number of projects, compared to the global average of 70.7 percent and slightly better than the 65.4 percent average for the SSA. In commitment volume, Tanzania had an average outcome rating of 87.1 percent MS or better, compared to SSA (72.4 percent) and the Bank (82.6 percent). The risk to development outcome measured as percent with moderate or lower risk is better for Tanzania (38.5 percent) than for SSA (33.1 percent) by number of projects but below the Bank average (44.5 percent). At the same time, two projects that were implemented during the CAS period and exited the portfolio in the outer year (FY17)—the Agricultural Sector Development project and the Basic Health Services Project—were rated by IEG as Moderately Unsatisfactory and Unsatisfactory, respectively. Both projects used pooled funding, were deemed ambitious, overly complex in design, and not aligned with government capacity. 51. During the CAS period, the average portfolio at risk (18.5 percent) was lower than the SSA (21.6 percent) or the Bank average (20.7 percent). The disbursement ratio was higher for Tanzania (29.0 percent) compared to the SSA average (22.2 percent). The CLR acknowledges slow implementation leading to delays in 65 percent of the projects that needed extension, sometimes due to delays in funding by other partners or due to procurement delays. However, these factors do not seem to be captured in the portfolio at risk ratings which may suggest some over optimism in ratings. 7 Independent Evaluation Group, Tanzania: Implementation Completion and Results Report for the First and Second Power and Gas Sector DPO, Washington D.C.: World Bank Group, December 21, 2017. For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group 52. IFC’s net commitments stood at US$174.6 million, a slight increase from US$158.9 million net commitments from the previous CAS period (FY07-11). The largest project was IFC’s $60 million investment in a power plant during FY16. IFC’s short-term trade finance guarantee accounted for 16.1 percent of total IFC net commitment for US$28 million in the FY12-FY16 CAS period. 53. During the review period, IEG validated five Expanded Project Supervision Reports (XPSRs) of IFC investment projects. All five projects had development outcome ratings of Mostly Unsuccessful or worse. The poor development outcome ratings reflect the difficult business environment in Tanzania. Sharp declines in global commodity prices also negatively affected IFC’s investments in the mining sector. IFC’s MSME AS program was also validated and, an independent third party reported no evidence of impact. In FY14, MIGA reinsured coverage provided by the Overseas Private Investment Corporation to an agricultural investor with total gross exposure of $28.9 million. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 54. During the CAS period, IDA delivered 23 Economic and Sector Work (ESW) products, and 26 Technical Assistance (TA) pieces, which is higher than planned. Major ESW products included a Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) in FY14, Poverty Assessment in FY15, one PEFAR in FY12 and four Public Expenditure Reviews (PER), as well as a set of Policy Notes (FY12). These core diagnostics (CEM, Poverty Assessment, PERs) underpinned the Bank’s dialogue with the government. The Bank also prepared Policy Notes for the new Government in FY16 that were well received both by the government and donor partners and provided the basis for engaging the new government on key priority issues. There were also policy notes on education that were published and widely disseminated. In addition, the sector work on education and water contributed to the sector dialogue and influenced the Bank’s strategy in the work. While the analytical work largely informed WBG engagements and supported the policy dialogue, in some instances in the energy sector ESWs suffered from lack of client demand or capacity to engage. 55. IFC approved 14 new AS projects for the financial sector, agricultural sector, investment climate reforms, and initiatives such as Lighting Africa in Tanzania. Some AS projects supported existing IFC clients, while others helped to establish the regulatory framework of the respective industries. To support the mobile financial services industry in Tanzania, one AS project worked with the regulator to develop a set of industry-agreed interoperable standards for mobile financial services among mobile network operators in the country. Subsequently, the Bank of Tanzania reported a substantial increase of transfers between different mobile wallets solutions in the country. IEG validated two Project Completion Reports (PCRs) of AS projects during the review period and both were assigned ratings of Mostly Successful on development effectiveness. 56. The experience in Tanzania suggests the need for strategic selection of IFC's engagement in the country. All five IFC's investment operations were unsuccessful in realizing development objectives. In contrast, the two AS projects were Mostly Successful. With one of the AS projects, IFC played the role of an honest broker among mobile companies and helped Tanzania become the first country in Africa to achieve full mobile money interoperability in 2016. This indicates that in some contexts, AS projects are able to leverage more change than investment projects. Results Framework 57. The CAS results framework reflected some good practices, but there were significant shortcomings. The original CAS results framework broadly reflected a logical chain from government goals, major issues and obstacles to CAS objectives, and the WBG program interventions that would contribute to achieving the CAS objectives. The framework also contained baselines and targets. In many instances, however, the WBG’s interventions were not directly contributing to the CAS objectives and outcomes. For instance, objective #1 had two outcome indicators with 13 supporting program interventions (seven Bank operations, four IFC and two TFs) and seven operations in the pipeline; yet, such interventions had little effect on reducing the number of days to start a business. 58. Moreover, the bar was set too low for some objectives by using the same baseline values as in the previous CAS (for example for crop yields in objective #2) in a context of significant financing from both IDA and donor partners. An example is the Agricultural Sector Development project which had For Official Use Only CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group total program financing of $474.40 million financed through pooled funding—Unsatisfactory IEG outcome rating. Moreover, many targets were project-level objectives, and thus not appropriate to measure the broader program-level objectives. During the CASPR, the results framework was adjusted, but the changes were not sufficient to address shortcomings in the original CAS. Of the seven new indicators added, five were not achieved by the end of the program. In addition, the CASPR dropped one of two indicators—each on commercialization of agriculture and health—but maintained the overall objectives in both areas. Although several projects had gender implications, the results framework did not give gender much prominence, both in terms of monitoring and of reporting of beneficiaries. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 59. Tanzania has a well-established coordination mechanism among 37 donors at the time of the CAS through sector working groups and financing modalities through pooled/basket funds, budget support, and the PER process. While the previous CAS (FY07-11) was prepared as a Joint Assistance Strategy for Tanzania, the current CAS relied more on partnerships in sector programs initially implemented through sector-wide approaches (SWAPs). The World Bank was the lead partner on three sector working groups and three thematic working groups and contributed to the pooled funding in PSD, agriculture, water, electrification and healthcare. Pooled funding for sector programs was adopted to reduce transaction costs. In practice, however, multiple fiduciary and reporting requirements of different donors proved challenging for sector implementing agencies. The difficulties of managing basket funds led the Bank to shift toward PforRs with co-financing from other development partners. The use of country systems for PforRs made feasible the use of a common set of systems for donors. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 60. Of the 12 operations validated by IEG,10 triggered environmental and social safeguard policies in the governance, social development, environment and natural resources, social protection and labor, agriculture, water and the education practices. The Implementation Completion Reports (ICRs) indicated satisfactory or moderately satisfactory compliance with the triggered policies, with adequate preparation and disclosure of the policy instruments. However, some issues affected performance during implementation. Both the CLR and the CASPR noted that operations were affected by inadequate institutional capacity at the local level. Knowledge and skill gaps in environmental and social safeguards was a critical challenge reported in all ICRs. Safeguard issues in local government and governance projects included delays in document processing and payment of compensation for Project Affected Persons (PAPs), inadequate coordination and engagement with affected populations, and weak safeguards monitoring. The Bank organized technical workshops and practical training for government staff and implementing agencies to strengthen local level safeguards capacity. The ICRs report that by the project’s end, all PAPs had been fully compensated and local capacity had improved. No safeguards complaints were brought to the Inspection Panel during the CPS period. 61. At the project level, the application of the Indigenous Peoples policy (OP 4.10) was a contentious issue in Tanzania. While the Bank was revising its Environmental and Social Framework (ESF), the Bank agreed in the interim to adopt an alternative approach that includes preparing social assessments to analyze the needs of vulnerable and marginal communities and propose measures for engagement and participation in Bank financed projects. The CASPR of June 2014 committed the Bank to undertake a review in about 18 months to assess adherence to the commitments made by the government. The CLR does not provide any information on the status of this commitment. 62. According to the Vice Presidency for Integrity (INT), there were two investigations by INT during the review period. One was a substantiated case in the Transport Support project (FY10), which was a misrepresentation by the contractor, and the other was unsubstantiated in the Accelerated Food Security Project (FY09). In addition, INT had two complaints regarding IFC investments. Ownership and Flexibility 63. The alignment of the CAS with the government strategy is an indication of country ownership. The CASPR was also intended to support the government’s “Big Results Now” (BRN) initiative launched in 2013 to accelerate delivery of selected priority results. In practice, although the BRN For Official Use Only CLR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group intended to leverage private investment, the private sector continues to be hampered by constraints in the business environment, financial markets, and infrastructure. In the energy sector, the WBG responded to the public utility’s (TANESCO) need for financial support through the Power and Gas Sectors DPOs but the interventions were insufficient to overcome government inaction in key reform areas, such as payment arrears collections. 8 64. The WBG displayed flexibility in the use of lending instruments and by extending the CAS. Yet, preparation of the CPF was delayed by at least another 18 months beyond the CAS expiration. To help the government overcome the problems faced using pooled funding, the Bank shifted to PforRs as the lending instrument of choice for programs with significant donor co-financing that involve a mix of service delivery and sector reforms. Building on lessons from PRSC implementation, the Bank also moved away from general budget support (PRSCs) to more targeted support of reforms through sector DPOs. WBG Internal Cooperation 65. The CAS described the IDA and IFC support for Tanzania as complementary, especially in support of the business environment and the agriculture sector. However, the results framework did not fully capture IFC’s role. There is no evidence of joint Bank-IFC projects, and opportunities to collaborate were missed in the power and financial sectors. The emphasis on mobile banking—while useful— was not complemented by efforts to address key constraints for increasing access to finance for businesses. The February 2017 Systematic Country Diagnostic for Tanzania discusses the role and potential collaboration of WBG institutions in greater detail. In particular, three of the four priorities for structural transformation—business environment, power sector, and financial inclusion—offer opportunities for joint or coordinated Bank-IFC support to Tanzania. Risk Identification and Mitigation 66. The CAS appropriately identified the following risks: (i) weakening public financial management (PFM) performance; (ii) the negative impact of hydrocarbon development on governance, fiscal discipline, and public investments; (iii) weak implementation capacity at local government level; (iv) risk of increasing inequality; and (v) exogenous risks, such as weather and international food and fuel prices. The CASPR identified additional risks, especially the potential political risk from constitutional reform and the 2015 elections, and macro-fiscal risks from the government’s changing fiscal stance. The risk assessment correctly anticipated the risks that materialized, including weak PFM, local implementation capacity and adverse weather, as well as the political economy risk to reforms. The CLR noted that the prolonged drought which led to a shutdown of hydropower plants in late October 2015 could not have been anticipated, but the effects on the financial health of TANESCO could have been highlighted as a risk, and mitigating measures put in place. However, governance and political economy risks to the program were not sufficiently elaborated, and had an adverse impact on program outcomes as noted in the recently completed ICR for DPO for Power and Gas. 9 67. The key risk mitigation measure was to build government capacity through continued Bank- authorities collaboration and technical assistance. Other measures involved front-loading in lending to contain the impact of the 2015 elections and to work closely with the IMF to monitor macro and fiscal stability, and adjusting the Bank program as needed. To address governance challenges, the CASPR committed to strengthen local level implementation capacity on fiduciary and safeguard issues, and proposed to incorporate beneficiary feedback to enhance demand-side social accountability. The adverse effect of governance and political economy risks on the WBG program suggests that the risk mitigation measures in these areas were insufficient. 8 See IEG’s Implementation and Completion Report for the First and Second Power and Gas Sector DPO (FY18). 9 See page 15 of IEG’s Implementation and Completion Report for the First and Second Power and Gas Sector DPO (FY18). For Official Use Only CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Overall Assessment and Rating 68. WBG performance is rated as Fair. The initial CAS design was broadly aligned with the government’s development strategy, but it could have been more focused and selective, especially with respect to lending. The lending program was largely supported well by ESWs, especially in education and water. The Policy Notes prepared for the new Government in 2015 provided the basis for dialogue with the government in key priority areas. The CASPR adjusted the pillars to align with the WBG’s corporate goals, but it did not revise the CAS objectives. Changes in the results framework—which remained weak at closure—did not alter its substance, and several interventions lacked credible links with CAS objectives. At progress report stage, program implementation was slow owing to institutional challenges faced by sector ministries using pooled funding mechanisms. Yet, discounting these challenges, lending was scaled up further following the progress report and lending instruments were diversified. Portfolio quality at exit was better than its comparators. IEG project ratings, however, deteriorated towards the end of the CAS period, especially for operations using pooled funding (including agriculture and basic health services). Governance and political economy risks to the program were not sufficiently elaborated, and their adverse effects on the WBG program suggests that the risk mitigation measures in these areas were insufficient. There is no evidence of joint Bank-IFC projects, and opportunities to collaborate were missed in the power and financial sectors. The WBG displayed flexibility in the use of lending instruments and by extending the CAS. Yet, preparation of the CPF was delayed by at least another 18 months beyond the CAS expiration. Finally, the Bank coordinated closely with development partners through sector working groups, and shared with partners a pooled funding mechanism to reduce transaction costs. The pooled funding mechanism proved challenging for sector implementing agencies owing to multiple fiduciary and reporting requirements. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 69. The CLR provides adequate information on the country context and the assessment broadly followed the CAS/CASPR results framework and the Shared Approach. It provides good insights by highlighting the influential pieces of analytical work, collaboration with development partners and incorporation of lessons from the previous CAS in the design and implementation of the CAS under review. The CLR was generally candid in highlighting shortcomings in addressing the cross-cutting issues on gender and governance and issues, noting the supply driven nature of some ESWs, and identifying areas where the Bank’s supervision could be improved. The CLR did not discuss the significant shift of the portfolio by lending instruments, and the potential implications for institutional capacity and results. While the CLR provides an adequate descriptive analysis of CAS outcomes, the evidence of WBG contribution to these outcomes is weak, and in some cases, could not be validated. 8. Findings and Lessons 70. IEG agrees with the CLR lessons identified in the CLR: (i) about realism regarding the government’s absorptive capacity; (ii) the need to pilot, monitor and refine programs before scaling them up and to understand and take account of the political economy when designing the country program; (iii) the importance of knowledge products in strengthening the policy dialogue; (iv) the necessity to select lending instruments that are suitable to the country and sector context, and (v) the need for a strong M&E and a realistic results framework. 71. IEG underscores the relevance of CLR lessons (i), (ii) and (iv), and elaborates them further as follows: • First, Bank programs need to be tailored to existing capacities and to commit firmly to capacity building that helps effective program implementation. Tanzania’s PforR’s—which intend to leverage co-financing from other donors while lowering administrative demands on the country—contain capacity-building components. IEG’s early evaluation of the PforR For Official Use Only CLR Review 16 Independent Evaluation Group instrument 10 includes a caution that is worth heeding in the country. While capacity building is an important part of PforRs, specific capacity goals need to be defined clearly and implementation of capacity-building programs delivered in a timely manner. • Second, design and implementation of reform programs require a good understanding of the political economy of reform irrespective of financing modalities. In Tanzania, the shift from PRSCs to sector DPFs intended to improve the effectiveness of Bank interventions for reforming specific sectors. However, underperformance of the recently closed DPO operations in energy suggests that the Bank’s limited understanding of political economy and governance risks in power sector reform led to over-ambitious objectives (medium to long-term measures) and limited ability to respond to implementation challenges. 72. IEG adds another lesson: • The WBG should seize on opportunities to exercise selectivity. In Tanzania, the large number of development partners in the country provided an opportunity to be more selective and avoid stretching WBG resources across a large number of sectors. In practice, based on government demand, the Bank moved well beyond the sectors in which it had agreed to take the lead at the beginning of the CAS period. This may have affected its overall achievement of development results, as reflected in the fact that development outcomes were weaker in the sectors in which the WBG had not initially agreed to take the lead under the CAS. 10 Independent Evaluation Group, Program-for-Results: An Early-Stage Assessment of the Process and Effects of a New Lending Instrument, Washington D.C.: World Bank Group, 2016. Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Tanzania Annex Table 2: Tanzania Planned and Actual Lending, FY12-FY16 Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Tanzania, FY12-FY16 Annex Table 4: Tanzania Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY12-16 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Tanzania, FY12-16 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Tanzania and Comparators, FY12-16 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Tanzania and Comparators, FY12-16 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Tanzania, FY12-16 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Tanzania, FY12-16 Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Tanzania Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Tanzania, 2012 – 2016 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Tanzania Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Tanzania Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Tanzania, FY12 - FY17 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Tanzania, 2014-2017 Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Tanzania CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area I: Productive Investments for Actual Results IEG Comments Growth of Labor-Intensive Industries and Job Creation 1. CPS Objective: Address constraints for doing business and improve financial intermediation Business Environment Various operations contributed to Indicator 1 At CASPR, Focus Area Indicator 1: Number of days to including : the Financial Sector Support 1 was changed from start a business Project (P099231, FY06, closed FY13, IEG: “Promote Inclusive, Baseline: 29 in 2011 MS) that supported the strengthening of the Sustainable and Private Target: 10 in 2016 business environment including improving Sector-led Growth”. access to financial services; the Private Sector/ MSME Competitiveness Project At CASPR, the CPS (P085009, FY06, see last ISR: MS of July objective was changed 2017) that supports sustainable conditions from “Improved for enterprise creation and growth. business The July 2017 ISR: MS of project P085009 environment and reports that the number of days needed to financial formally start a business was reduced from intermediation”. 35 in 2006 to 26 in December 2016. Other operations that contributed to this At CASPR, the target indicator are the Business Environment and date for this indicator Industry Development for Jobs DPO was changed from (P150009, FY16) supporting cost reduction 2013 to 2016. for doing business. as well as Technical Assistance (TA) on public-private partnerships (PPP) (the Support to PPP Major Central Agencies, FY14, completed); the Outcome Building PPP Institutional Support in Measures Tanzania, PPIAF, FY14, ongoing) and a Country Economic Memorandum, P127087, was delivered in FY14, see report). According to the Doing Business reports for 2011 and 2016, the number of days needed to start a business in Tanzania declined from 29 in 2011 to 26 in 2016 and in 2017. Partially Achieved. Indicator 2: Proportion of adult The operations that contributed to this At CASPR, the target population that uses financial Indicator are reported under Indicator 1. The date for this indicator services provided by formal IFC SME lines of credit and Direct Trade was changed from and semi-formal financial Finance Facility also contributed to Indicator 2013 to 2016. service providers: 2, as well as the Africa Credit Bureau Baseline: 11% in 2008 Program (P569788). With a total exposure of Target: 22% in 2016 US$54 million, IFC IEG: MS for the Financial Sector Support helped CRDB Bank Project (P099231, FY06, closed FY13) PLC to extend loans to indicates that the proportion of adult using SMEs. CRDB’s formal and semi-formal financial institutions outstanding loan increased from 11% to 17% between 2006 portfolio is US$1.4 and 2013. Data presented in the Program billion, which includes Document for the Business Environment nearly $429 million in CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 20 CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area I: Productive Investments for Actual Results IEG Comments Growth of Labor-Intensive Industries and Job Creation and Industry Development for Jobs DPO SME loans. IFC made indicates that, according to the 2013 World a small contribution to Bank’ Enterprise Survey, only 18.5% of firms help its clients in in the country used the formal banking extending microfinance system to finance investments. loans and SME loans. Data from FinScope 2013 indicates that between 2009 and 2013 the number of people with access to financial services in the mainland increased from 15.9% to 57.4% (from 9.2% to 13.9% for bank products and from 6.7% to 43.5% for non- bank formal products) and that the number of people in Zanzibar using formal products increased from 14.7% to 37% (from 8.5% to 11.5% for bank products and from 6.2% to 25.5% for non-bank formal products). More recent FinScope data is not available. Achieved. 2. CPS Objective: Increased productivity and commercialization of agriculture Productivity The Agricultural Sector Development At CASPR, the target Indicator: Crop yields in target (P085752, FY06, IEG: U); the Accelerated date for this indicator areas (tons per hectare) for Food Security (P114291, FY09, IEG: MS); was changed from (i) maize and (ii) rice the Eastern Africa Agricultural Productivity 2015 to 2016 Baseline: (i) 1.12; (ii) 1.73 in (P112688, FY09, IEG: MS); supported this 2009 objective, and the Expanding Rice The baseline reported Target: (i) 2.20; (ii) 3.50 in 2016 Production projects (P144497, FY15) for this indicator is the continues to do so. same as the baseline Mostly Achieved. reported in the last CAS period FY07-11 (i) Maize: The CLR reports that maize yields (see last IEG CPSCR increased from 1.12 tons/ha in 2009 to 2.3 Review), which tons/ha by 2015. . reported good progress According to IEG: MS for project P114291, with maize yields of 2.1 maize yields increased from 0.33 tons/acre tons/ha in 2010. (or 0.81 ton ha) to 0.93 tons/acre (or 2.3 tons per ha) by 2014 in the project targeted Indicator (ii) for areas. The ICRR for project P112688 does commercialization was not report data for maize yield. However, dropped: taking the 2010 data from the CPSCR as the “Commercialization: baseline, progress was limited during the Households FY12-16 CAS period. participating in Partially Achieved. outgrower operations supported by SAGCOT (ii) Rice: The CLR reports that rice yields increase their farmgate increased from 1.73 tons/ha to over 2.74 prices by 25% by 2015 tons/ha in 2015. According to IEG: U for [TBD]”. project P085752, rice paddy production increased from an average of 1.47 tons/ha CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 21 CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area I: Productive Investments for Actual Results IEG Comments Growth of Labor-Intensive Industries and Job Creation in 2010 to 3.42 tons/ha July 2014 in the (i) The numbers for areas covered by irrigation schemes. maize yields can be According to IEG: MS for project P114291, reconciled with the rice paddy yields increased from 0.74 CLR which reports that tons/acre (1.83 tons/ha) in 2009 to 1.11 maize yields increased tons/acre by 2014 (2.74 tons/ha). Additional to 2.30 tons/hectare as data in ISRs varies enormously across of 2015 by converting project areas from a reported rice yield of tonnage per acre to 4.8 tons/ha for project P112688, by tons/ha (2.25 tons/ha) December 2015 to an average of 1.8 in the project areas. tons/ha in project P144497, as of May 2017. Finally, the last ISR: MS (June 2017) of (ii) The conflicting project P144497 reports average rice paddy information reported in yields of 1.80 tons/ha, as of May 2017. the various project documents does not Not validated. permit validation of the reported increase in rice yields. 3. CPS Objective: Increased sustainability and improved management of natural resources, including natural gas Mining The Sustainable Management of Mineral At CASPR, “Including Indicator 1: Improvement in Resources Project (P096302, FY09) and its natural gas” was added Tanzania’s policy ranking as a additional financing (FY15) support the in the name of the CPS mining investment destination Government’s capacity to manage the Objective. in Fraser Institute Survey: mineral sector. The last ISR: MS of June Baseline: 44/72 in 2009 2017 reports progress in the time to process At CASPR, the target Target: 2-3 points/places in 2015 mineral rights and more transparency, with date was changed from the annual publication of mining sector 2014 to 2015. revenue. According to the 2015 Fraser Institute Survey, Tanzania ranked 63/109 (58th percentile) in 2015, compared to 44/72 in 2009 (61st percentile, see the 2010 Fraser Institute Report) for the Policy Perception Index. The last ISR: MS of project P096302 also reports that, as of June 2016 the country ranked 48/71 (68th decile for policy ranking). Achieved. Gas The First and Second Power and Gas DPO This indicator was Indicator 2: Amount of on- (P143645, FY13 and P145254, FY14) and added at CASPR. shore proven natural gas the Energy Sector Capacity Building Project reserves (Tcf) (P126875, FY13) aiming at strengthening Baseline:1.0 in 2012 the capacity of the government to develop Target: 3.5 in 2016 the natural gas sector (see last ISR: MS), supported this indicator The ICR: MU for P143645/P145254 indicates that, as of December 2016, there CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 22 CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area I: Productive Investments for Actual Results IEG Comments Growth of Labor-Intensive Industries and Job Creation were 1.187 Tcf of proven on-shore natural gas reserves. Partially Achieved. Natural Resources and The Lake Victoria Environmental At CASPR, the target Environment Management Project Phase II (P100406, date was changed from Indicator 3: Area brought under FY09) supported this indicator. According to 2013 to 2015 and the improved land use and range the December 2015 ISR: S, 7,111 hectares target was changed land management practices in of land have been brought under sustainable from 45,000 hectares the targeted catchments land management practices in the targeted The project supporting (cumulative hectares): areas, as of November 2015. this project was Baseline: Nil in 2010 restructured and target Target: 2,000 in 2015 Achieved. changed downwards due to institutional capacity constraints. 4. CPS Objective: Increased access, quality and sustainability of electricity Access The Energy Development and Access At CASPR, this Indicator 1: Number of people Expansion Project - TEDAP (P101645, objective was moved provided with access to FY08) supported this indicator. According to from Focus Area II to electricity by household the ISR: MU of April 2017, as of September Focus Area I. connections: 2016, 689,573 people were provided with Baseline: 34,200 in 2010 access to electricity by household At CASPR, the target Target: 252,500 in 2016 connections. date was changed from 2015 to 2016. Achieved. Quality The TEDAP supported this indicator. At CASPR, the target Indicator 2: Improvements in According to ISR: MU of April 2017, the end date was changed from service quality as measured user voltage was 220 volts as of September 2015 to 2016 and by voltage accessible to 2016. Indicator B was added. households: Baseline: 190 volts in 2010 Achieved. Target: >218 volts in 2016 Indicator 3: Availability of high The Backbone Transmission Investment voltage (400 kV, double Project (P111598, FY11) supported this circuit) transmission indicator. According to the ICR: S, 225km of infrastructure in Northern TZ: transmission lines have been constructed in Baseline: 0 km in 2014 the North of the country (Singifa to Target: 225 km in 2016 Shinyanga section) as of December 2016. However, as reported in the ICR, in spite of significant reduction in power outages and improvement in service quality, the supply system remains vulnerable to outages. Achieved. Sustainability The TEDAP supported this indicator. Indicator 4: Improvement in According to the ISR: MU of April 2017, TANESCO’s operational there collection efficiency has increased to efficiency as measured by 93.53%, as of September 2016. increase in collection Additional information from the ICR: MU for efficiency in targeted areas P143645/P145254 indicates that CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 23 CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area I: Productive Investments for Actual Results IEG Comments Growth of Labor-Intensive Industries and Job Creation Baseline: 70% in 2010 TANESCO’s accounts payable increased by Target: 95% in 2015 88% from 2012 to 2016/17, and the 2016 IMF Article IV Consultation indicates that the financial sustainability of TANESCO has not been achieved yet, considering the company’s large amount of arrears to gas and electricity suppliers, estimated at 0.7% of the GDP in early 2016 (about USD 300 million). Mostly Achieved. 5. CPS Objective: Increased access to and quality of transport services Access The last ISR: S (June 2017) of the Transport At CASPR, this Indicator 1: Passenger volume Sector Support Project (P055120, FY10) objective was moved at Kigoma, Tabora and reported that passenger volume at airports from Focus Area II to Bukoba airports had slightly increased to 70,424 passengers Focus Area I. Baseline: 78,399 in 2009 as of January 2017 – no progress was Target: 104,000 in 2014 reported as of June 2015, a date similar to the target date, as per the June 2015 ISR: S. Not Achieved. Indicator 2: Number of daily The last ISR: U (June 2017) of the Inter- Indicator added at slots available for third party Modal and Rail Development Project CASPR. block trains between Dar es (P127421, FY14) reports no progress for Salaam Port and Isaka the indicator related to the number of daily The activity has not Terminal slots available for third party block trains started. Baseline: 0 in 2013 between Dar es Salaam Port and Isaka Target: 2 in 2017 Terminal. Not Achieved. Indicator 3: Number of TEU’s The last ISR: U (June 2017) of the Inter- Indicator added at shipped by direct project Modal and Rail Development Project CASPR. beneficiaries. (P127421, FY14), reports no progress for Baseline: 308 in 2014 the indicator related to the number of TEU’s The activity has not Target: 1,000 in 2017 shipped by direct project beneficiaries. started. Not Achieved. Quality The June 2015 ISR: S of the Transport Indicator: Roads in good and Sector Support Project (P055120, FY10) fair condition as a share of reported that 88% of the roads of the total total classified roads classified roads were in good condition, as Baseline: 66% in 2009 of June 2014 – the last ISR: S (June 2017) Target: 70% in 2014 reports a share of 86% as of January 2017. Achieved. 6. CPS Objective: Increased access to and quality of water and sanitation services Access The Water Sector Support project At CASPR, this (P087154, FY07) supported this indicator. objective was moved As reported in IEG: MS, 9.2 million rural CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 24 CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area I: Productive Investments for Actual Results IEG Comments Growth of Labor-Intensive Industries and Job Creation Indicator: Number of rural people gained access to water supply by from Focus Area II to population with access to December 2015.). Focus Area I. clean and safe water According to the 2015 Water Status Report, Baseline: 15.2 million people about 21.5 million people in rural areas of At CASPR, the Target: 22.5 million rural people the mainland had access to water supply. baseline and target for by 2016 this indicator were However, according to WBG data, modified from Tanzania’s rural population was about 37.78 “Baseline: 58.7% in million in 2016 and about 45.5% of the rural 2010 population (17.20 million people) had Target: 65% in 2015”. access to improved water sources, as of 2015 (and about 36.6% of the rural population – 6.30 million- used basic drinking water services). Partially Achieved. Quality The Water Sector Support project Indicator: Proportion of rural (P087154, FY07) supported this indicator. population with access to As reported in IEG: MS, by December 2015 improved sanitation about 5.15 million people (both rural and Baseline: 23% in 2010 urban) obtained access to improved Target: 35% in 2015 sanitation. According to the 2015 World Development Indicators, only 8.5% of the rural population had access to improved sanitation facilities. Not Achieved. 7. CPS Objective: Increased access to and management of urban services Access The Strategic Cities Project (P111153, At CASPR, this Indicator: People with access FY10), supported this indicator. As reported objective was moved to improved public transport in the ISR : S of December 2016, 839,998 from Focus Area II to services people had access to improved public Focus Area I and the Baseline: Nil in 2010 transport services as of July 2016. target date was Target: 543,721 in 2016 changed from 2015. Achieved. Outcome (ii): Management As reported in the ISR : S of December At CASPR, the target 2016 of the Strategic Cities Project date was changed from Indicator: Waste collected and (P111153, FY10), no progress was 2015 to 2016. disposed at landfill compared recorded as of July 2016 in relation to the to total waste produced in share of waste collected and disposed at target areas: landfill compared to total waste produced in Baseline: 28% in 2010 target areas – as of March 2017, this share Target: 58% in 2016 reached 32% (see the June 2017 ISR:S). Not Achieved. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 25 CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area II: Programs that target reduction of extreme poverty and Actual Results IEG Comments improvements in quality and delivery of social services 8. CPS Objective: Improved access to and quality of education Access The Zanzibar Basic Education At CASPR, Focus Indicator: Students enrolled in Improvement Project (P102262, FY07) Area 2 was changed secondary school in Zanzibar supported this objective. IEG: MU and from “Build (Zanzibar Basic Education) Management: MU report on the Infrastructure and Baseline: Boys: 37,723 and Girls: pupil/classroom ratio that decreased from Deliver Services” and 42,285 in 2010 83/1 at baseline to 58/1 at the end of the the objectives of Target: Boys: 48,250 and Girls: project and that the target was set on the former Focus Area 3 49,300 in 2013 basis of the expected increased were consolidated enrollment numbers although the ICRR into Focus Area 2. indicates that the attribution of this decrease to project activities is unclear. However, these reports do not mention the absolute number of students enrolled in secondary schools in Zanzibar. The PAD for the Zanzibar Improving Students Prospects Project (P153277, FY16) reports that “currently (….) around 89,685 students are enrolled in secondary schools” (2016) – this is lower than the information presented in the CLR (110,230 secondary school students) and the target (97,550 students in total). Major Outcome Mostly Achieved. Measures Quality Mostly Achieved. Indicator 1: Completion rates at the O level (lower secondary Indicator 1: The Secondary Education education) Development Program II (P114866, FY10) Baseline: 22% in 2011 supported this objective. According to Target: 39% in 2015 Management: MS, completion rates at the O level reached 33.6% as of June 2016. Mostly Achieved. Indicator 2: Number of primary Indicator 2: the Education Program for Indicator 2 was schools conducting Student Results (EPforR) (P147486, FY15 and its added at CASPR. Teacher Enrichment Program additional financing P162470, FY17) (STEP) supports government reforms such as the Baseline: 0 (2013) implementation of the STEP. The last ISR: Target: 5,000 (2018) S (June 2017) does not present a related indicator since, as reported in the Project Paper for the Additional Financing, more than 10,000 primary schools carried STEP and the target was taken out at project restructuring. The activity was completed, as indicated by the November 2015 mid- term review, in a total of 10,447 primary schools. Achieved. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 26 CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area II: Programs that target reduction of extreme poverty and Actual Results IEG Comments improvements in quality and delivery of social services 9. CPS Objective: Improves access to and quality of health services Indicator: Proportion of births The Basic Health Services Project At CASPR, the target taking place at health facilities (P125740, FY12), supported this indicator. date was changed as a proxy of births attended by IEG: MU reports that the baseline was from 2012 to 2015. skilled H/Workers 58.4% in 2012 and the share of births Baseline: 51% in 2008 attended in a health facility reached 62.4% At CASPR, outcome Target: 67% in 2015 at the end of the project (December 2015). (ii) “Proportion of mothers in each LGA According to the March 2016 ISR: S of the who received two Strengthening Primary Health Care for doses of preventative Results Project (P152736, FY15), as of intermittent treatment March 2016, 63% of births took place at for malaria during last health facilities. Recent information from pregnancy the May 2017 ISR: S indicates that this (Basic Health share reached 65.30% by April 2017. Services project)” was Compared to the 2012 baseline limited taken out. progress was achieved during the CAS period. Partially Achieved. 10. CPS Objective: Improved access to safety nets Indicator 1: Beneficiaries of IEG: S of the Second Social Action Fund At CASPR, the target conditional cash transfers (P085786, FY05, closed FY13), reports was changed from Baseline: 6,000 in 2010 that 28,480 people benefited from “22,582 in 2013”. Target: 4.2 million in 2015 conditional cash transfers supported by the program. The Productive Social Safety Net Project (P124045, FY12) also supported this objective. The January 2016 ISR: S reported 4.89 million direct project beneficiaries of social safety net projects, as of December 2015. The most recent ISR: S (October 2017), reports more than 5 million beneficiaries as of June 2017. Achieved. Indicators 2: Beneficiaries of According to the January 2016 ISR: S of At CASPR, the target public works Programs the Productive Social Safety Net Project was changed from Baseline: 217,315 (men: 114,124, (P124045, FY12), 55,137 people benefited “238,635 (men: women: 103,191) in 2010 from the public work programs (24,812 124,900, women: Target: 350,000 (men: 175,000, men and 30,325 women) as of December 113,735) in 2013”. women: 175,000) in 2015 2015. Partially Achieved. 11. CPS Objective: Improved efficiency and transparency of public management Efficiency Not Achieved. Prior to the CASPR, Indicator 1: Share of MDAs use Objective 11 was part performance management Indicator 1: According to IEG: MU for the of a Focus Area IV. Performance Results and Accountability CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 27 CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area II: Programs that target reduction of extreme poverty and Actual Results IEG Comments improvements in quality and delivery of social services system (PMS) to enhance Project – APL II (P092898, FY08, closed At CASPR, the target service delivery FY13), as of 2010, 62% of the MDAs used date for Indicator 1 Baseline: 62% in 2010 PMS to enhance service delivery– was changed from Target: 85% in 2016 however, the ICRR rated “modest” the 2013 to 2016 and efficacy of the PDO in relation to Indicator 2 was enhanced capacity and performance of added. MDAs and “negligible” for enhanced accountability of MDAs. As reported in the CLR, the APLIII was not approved and the use of PMS was not tracked. Not Achieved. Indicator 2: The Program Document of the Indicator 2: Share of Open Government and Public Finance development projects that are Management DPO (P133798, FY15) selected using the Project incorporated Indicator 2 as the Investment Manual Government had approved a Project Baseline: 0% in 2014 Investment Manual (PIM) for 2015/2016 as Target: 40% in 2016 a prior action and presented a 100% objective for 2017. However, the only available ISR:S, of November 2015 does not report data for this indicator and the CLR reports that the development of the Manual was delayed and not applied in projects as anticipated. Not Achieved. Transparency Partially Achieved. At CASPR, Indicator Indicator 1: Full and timely 2 was added. implementation of census and Indicator 1: The Development of a surveys specified in the National Statistical System for Tanzania Intercensal Survey Calendar project (P107722, FY11) supports this 2012-2022 objective. Indicator 1 was one of the PDOs of project P107722 and considered various surveys such as Integrated Business Survey, Survey of Industrial production, Agriculture Census… (see PAD). The November 2016 ISR: S indicates that between 2012 and 2015 various surveys were prepared and concluded. In addition, as of September 2016, more than 154,000 establishments have been updated, the Final Statistical Business Register (SBR) report was in place and 23 surveys had been implemented (the project target was 18) through the implementation of the Tanzania Statistical Master Plan 2009- 2014. Mostly Achieved. CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 28 CAS FY12-FY16: Focus Area II: Programs that target reduction of extreme poverty and Actual Results IEG Comments improvements in quality and delivery of social services Indicator 2: Increased public access to budget documents Indicator 2: the Open Government and and transparency Public Finance Management DPO Baseline:47% in 2012 (OBI) (P133798, FY15) supports this indicator. Target: 60% in 2016 However, the only available ISR:S, of November 2015, does not report progress for the indicator « Percentage of Access to Information requests granted as a share of total requests ». In addition, data from the Open Budget Index reported a score of 46% for 2015, which indicates that the Government provides the public with limited budget information. Not Achieved. Annexes CLR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Tanzania Planned and Actual Lending, FY12-FY16 Lending Approved Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Outcome Project ID Project name Instrument IDA FY FY FY Amount Amount Rating Type Amount Project Planned Under CPS/PLR 2012-2016 CPS CPSPLR Dev Pol P112762 PRSC9 - 1st of Series 2012 2012 2013 75.0 100.0 IEG: MS Lend Pension Fiancing Reform DPO 1 2012 150.0 Southern Agricultural Growth 2012 60.0 Corridor Transport Sector Support Project 2012 60.0 (FY11 Standby)- AF P124114 Central Transport Corridor II - AF Investment 2012 2013 30.0 100.0 P124045 Social Action Fund III Investment 2012 2012 2020 220.0 220.0 LIR: S P125740 Basic Health Services Project Investment 2012 2012 2017 100.0 100.0 IEG: MU Emergency Railroads Rehabilitatio P127241 (TZ-Intermodal & Rail Investment 2012 2014 2020 150.0 300.0 LIR: U Development Project) Natural Gas TA 2012 15.0 Rusomo Falls Hydro - IDA and/or ** 2012 27.0 PRG [regional] Regional Lake Conservation & ** 2012 15.0 Development Project Dev Pol P110836 PRSC 10 2013 2013 2014 75.0 75.0 IEG: MS Lend P146700 Water Sector Investment 2013 2014 250.0 44.9 Dar es Salaam Metropolitan P123134 Investment 2013 2015 2021 75.0 300.0 LIR:: MS Development Project (1st phase) Local Government Il ('TZ-Urban P118152 Local Govt Strengthening P4R 2013 2013 2019 190.0 255.0 LIR: MS (ULGSP) ASDP-2 2013 280.0 Singida Wind - PRG 2013 25.0 SA Trade & Transport (N-S ** 2013 35.0 Corridor) [regional] Dev Pol P120536 PRSC 11 2014 2014 2015 75.0 85.0 IEG: MS Lend Higher Education (TZ-Education P147486 P4R 2014 2015 2018 120.0 122.0 LIR: S Program for Results) Secondary Education APL2 2014 150.0 Ruhudji Hydro - IDA (US$100 ** 2014 125.0 million) & PRG (US$25 million) PRSC 12 2015 75.0 Transport Sector Support II 2015 180.0 Pension Financing Reform DPO 2 2015 120.0 Unallocated 123.0 Business Environment and Dev Pol P150009 2015-2016 2016 2017 50.0 80.0 Industry Development for Jobs Lend Agriculture and Agro-business 2015-2016 295.0 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 30 Lending Approved Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Outcome Project ID Project name Instrument IDA FY FY FY Amount Amount Rating Type Amount Energy and Extractives 2015-2016 385.0 Transport Infrastructure and Trade 2015-2016 130.0 Urbanization in Dar es Salaam and 2015-2016 350.0 Zanziba Climate Resilient Sustainable 2015-2016 50.0 Growth Technical/Vocational and Higher P149464 Investment 2015-2016 2015 135.0 15.0 Education P151838 Social Safety Nets Investment 2015-2016 2016 210.0 200.0 Quality of Basic Education P152810 Services (TZ-Educt'n & Skills for P4R 2015-2016 2016 2021 120.0 120.0 LIR: MS Productive Jobs) Quality of Basic Health Services 2015-2016 25.0 Open Government and Public Dev Pol P133798 2015-2016 2015 2016 100.0 100.0 LIR: S Finance Lend Total Planned 2,800.0 1,850.0 2,216.9 Unplanned Projects during the CPS and PLR Period TZ-Energy Sector Capacity P126875 Investment 2013 2019 21.5 LIR: MS Building Prj TZ-Accelerated Food Security P132780 Investment 2013 25.0 Project AF TZ:Third Additional Financing for P132838 Investment 2013 30.0 ASDP Dev Pol P143645 TZ First Power and Gas Sector DPO 2013 2014 100.0 LIR: MU Lend TZ-Second Power and Gas Sector Dev Pol P145254 2014 2015 100.0 LIR: MU DPO Lend TZ Private Sector Comp. Project P145971 Investment 2014 60.2 Addl Fin P148974 Tanzania Strategic Cities Project AF Investment 2014 50.0 TZ Sustainable Mgmt of Mineral P151124 Investment 2015 45.0 Res AF P151220 TZ-Housing Finance Project AF Investment 2015 60.0 TZ-Strengthening PHC for Results P152736 P4R 2015 2020 200.0 LIR: S (FY15) P125728 TZ-SAGCOT Investment Project Investment 2016 2022 70.0 LIR: MS TZ-Zanzibar Improving Student P153277 Investment 2016 2022 35.0 LIR: MS Prospects TZ-Rural Electrificatn Expansn P153781 P4R 2016 2023 200.0 LIR: S Progr-SUF TZ-Zanzibar Urban Additional P155392 Investment 2016 55.0 Financing P155759 TZ- Judicial Modernization Project Investment 2016 2021 65.0 LIR: MS Total Unplanned 1,116.7 Total Planned and Unplanned, FY12-FY16 3,333.6 Approval Closing Approved Outcome On-going Projects during the CPS and PLR Period FY FY Amount Rating P107722 TZ- NEAS STATCAP Investment 2011 2018 30.0 LIR: S CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 31 Lending Approved Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Outcome Project ID Project name Instrument IDA FY FY FY Amount Amount Rating Type Amount TZ-Zanzibar Urban Services P111155 Investment 2011 2019 38.0 LIR: MS Project TZ- Backbone Transmission P111598 Investment 2011 2017 150.0 LIR: S Investm.(FY11) TZ-PRSC 8 (5th and last in 2nd Dev Pol P116666 2011 2013 115.0 IEG: MU series) Lend P125824 TZ-TEDAP AF Investment 2011 27.9 P126206 TZ: TSSP Additional Financing Investment 2011 59.0 TZ-Transport Sector Support P055120 2010 2017 270.0 LIR: S Project P111153 TZ-Strategic Cities Project Investment 2010 2020 163.0 LIR: S TZ-2ndary Educ. Dev. Program II P114866 Investment 2010 2017 150.0 LIR: MS (FY10) P117242 TZ-Housing Finance Investment 2010 2018 40.0 LIR; MU P117260 TZ:Additional Financing - TEDAP Investment 2010 25.0 TZ-Sustainable Mgt of P096302 Investment 2009 2019 50.0 LIR: MS Min.Resources TAL TZ : Accelerated Food Security P114291 Investment 2009 2014 160.0 IEG: MS Project TZ-Performance Results & P092898 Investment 2008 2013 40.0 IEG: MU Accountability TZ-Sci.&Tech. High Educ. Prog- P098496 Investment 2008 2016 100.0 IEG: MS Ph.1 (FY08 TZ-Energy Development & Access P101645 Investment 2008 2018 105.0 LIR: MU Expansion TZ-Second Central Transport P103633 Investment 2008 2017 190.0 LIR: MS Corridor P087154 TZ-Water Sector Support SIL Investment 2007 2016 200.0 IEG: MS P102262 TZ-Zanzibar Basic Educ. SIL (FY07) Investment 2007 2014 42.0 IEG: MU TZ- P070544 Accountability,Transparency&Integ Investment 2006 2012 40.0 IEG: MU rity TZ-Marine & Coastal Env Mgmt P082492 Investment 2006 2013 51.0 IEG: MU SIL (FY06) TZ-Private Sector/MSME P085009 Investment 2006 2019 95.0 LIR: MS Competitiveness P085752 TZ-Agr Sec Dev (FY06) Investment 2006 2017 90.0 IEG: U P099231 TZ-Financial Sector Support Investment 2006 2013 15.0 IEG: MS P100314 TZ-Tax Modernization Project Investment 2006 2012 12.0 IEG: MS TZ-Loc Govt Supt SIL- P099738 Investment 2006 2012 98.0 IEG: MS Supplemental (FY06) P070736 TZ-Loc Govt Supt SIL (FY05) Investment 2005 2012 52.0 IEG: MS P085786 TZ-Soc Action Fund 2 SIL (FY05) Investment 2005 2013 150.0 IEG: S Regional Trade Fac. Proj. - P069982 Investment 2001 2013 15.0 Tanzania Total On-going 2,572.9 Source: Tanzania CPS and PLR, WB Business Intelligence Table 2b.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 3/1/17 *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. **Regional Project not included on this table CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 32 Regional Approval Approved Outcome Closing FY Projects FY Amount Rating P075941 Rusomo Falls Hydro - IDA and/or PRG [regional] 2014 2021 113.3 LIR: MS P100406 Regional Lake Conservation & Development Project 2009 2017 32.5 LIR: S P120370 SA Trade & Transport (N-S Corridor) [regional] 2013 2019 210.0 LIR: S P125375 Ruhudji Hydro - IDA (US$100 million) & PRG (US$25 million) DROPPED 200.0 Total 555.8 Note: Approved amount was based on PAD Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Tanzania, FY12-FY16 Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type General Economy, Macroeconomics, and Growth P124787 MTDS Tanzania Follow Up FY12 Study P126837 TZ Policy Notes Series FY12 Not assigned P096088 TZ PEFAR 2011 FY13 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P133409 TZ Economic Note FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P143803 Port Study FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P127087 TZ CEM FY13 FY14 Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) P133379 TZ Public Expenditure Review 2012 FY14 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P143238 Consumer Protection FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P146584 Tanzania Economic Update FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P147091 Tanzania PER FY14 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P148689 Tanzania Gas Economic Policy Note FY14 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P127165 TZ:Building Blocks= National CC Strategy FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Tanzania Hydropower Assessment P145914 FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Sustainab P148501 Tanzania Poverty Assessment FY15 Poverty Assessment (PA) P151530 Economic Update FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P155102 Tanzania Second DeMPA FY15 Debt management Performance Assessment(DeMPA) P146149 TZ-Options for Contribution of Serengeti FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P147119 Tanzania EGR FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P151531 TZ-Policy Notes for New Government FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P152601 TZ-Poverty Assessment Follow-up FY16 Poverty Assessment (PA) P155544 Tanzania PER 2014 ESW FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P156919 Tanzania PER 2014 FY16 Public Expenditure Review (PER) P156957 Economic Update FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P099436 TZ PPP & Capital Markets TA FY12 Technical Assistance P127400 TZ: ICT Policy FY12 Technical Assistance P129133 Tanzania Reform Plan FY13 Technical Assistance P128781 Tanzania EITI FY14 Technical Assistance CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 33 P133296 Tz: Programmatic Governance FY14 Technical Assistance P133455 Tanzania Education Reform Compact FY14 Technical Assistance P143882 Tanzania CP diagnostic FY14 Technical Assistance P127515 TZ Finance Leasing - Legal and Regulator FY15 Technical Assistance P129440 TZ Islamic Banking - Legal and Regulator FY15 Technical Assistance P129675 Tanzania EITI CSO Support FY15 Technical Assistance TZ M&A - Legal and Regulatory P129858 FY15 Technical Assistance Framework P132058 Rural Sanitation Supply and Demand FY15 Technical Assistance P132059 Enabling Sanitation Performance Review FY15 Technical Assistance P133077 Tanzania Petroleum Sector Reform FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note P146235 Serengeti Geospatial Support System FY15 Technical Assistance P146946 Pension Reform FY15 Technical Assistance P148454 Tanzania MTDS Follow-up FY15 Technical Assistance P153597 TZ-Policy dialogue on gas sector FY15 Technical Assistance P133587 TZ-PPP activities FY16 Technical Assistance P145463 TZ-Strengthening DRR Comm. Capacity FY16 Technical Assistance P146393 StAR - Tanzania Country Engagement FY16 Technical Assistance P149532 TZ-Systems Based Approach for the PSSN FY16 Technical Assistance P149695 TZ-Sustainable Rural Water Supply FY16 Technical Assistance P150130 TZ-Health Financing for UHC FY16 Technical Assistance P150227 Tanzania PER 2014 TA FY16 Technical Assistance P153730 Public Procurement Reform FY16 Technical Assistance Source: WB Business Intelligence 3/1/17 Annex Table 4: Tanzania Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY12-16 Approval Closing Approved Outcome Project ID Project name TF ID FY FY Amount Rating P158448 Tanzania Mainland Household Budget Survey TF A2331 2016 2018 2,300,000 P153781 TZ-Rural Electrification Expansion Program TF 19390 2016 2017 760,000 Strengthening Primary Health Care for Results TF A1567 2016 2020 4,500,000 Strengthening Primary Health Care for Results TF A0261 2015 2020 20,000,000 P152736 LIR: S Strengthening Primary Health Care for Results TF A0270 2015 2020 40,000,000 Strengthening Primary Health Care for Results TF 16540 2015 2016 1,585,000 Total 69,145,000 Source: Client Connection as of 3/1/17 ** IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Tanzania, FY12-16 Total Exit Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO FY ($M) MODERATELY 2012 P070544 TZ-Accountability,Transparency&Integrity 28.9 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2012 P070736 TZ-Loc Govt Supt SIL (FY05) 147.5 MODERATE SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2012 P100314 TZ-Tax Modernization Project 13.0 MODERATE SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2012 P112762 TZ PRSC-9 (1st in a 3rd series) 99.7 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2013 P082492 TZ-Marine & Coastal Env Mgmt SIL (FY06) 51.9 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY 2013 P085786 TZ-Soc Action Fund 2 SIL (FY05) 224.5 SATISFACTORY MODERATE MODERATELY 2013 P092898 TZ-Performance Results & Accountability 30.0 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2013 P099231 TZ-Financial Sector Support 15.7 MODERATE SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2014 P102262 TZ-Zanzibar Basic Educ. SIL (FY07) 43.6 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2014 P114291 TZ: Accelerated Food Security Project 183.7 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2016 P087154 TZ-Water Sector Support SIL 251.7 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2016 P098496 TZ-Sci.&Tech. High Educ. Prog-Ph.1 (FY08 108.2 MODERATE SATISFACTORY Total 1,198.4 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 10/24/17 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Tanzania and Comparators, FY12-16 Total Total RDO % RDO % Outcome Outcome Region Evaluated Evaluated Moderate or Lower Moderate or Lower % Sat ($) % Sat (No) ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Tanzania 1,198.4 12 87.1 66.7 42.5 41.7 AFR 20,347.2 396 72.4 65.4 40.9 33.1 World 115,500.0 1,344 82.6 70.7 55.4 44.5 Source: WB AO as of 10/24/17 Annexes CLR Review 35 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Tanzania and Comparators, FY12-16 Fiscal year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Ave FY12-16 Tanzania # Proj 25 21 22 27 29 25 # Proj At Risk 6 3 3 4 7 5 % Proj At Risk 24.0 14.3 13.6 14.8 24.1 18.5 Net Comm Amt 2,700.7 2,715.8 3,179.6 3,908.9 4,203.2 3,342 Comm At Risk 731.4 254.4 317.0 591.7 1,019.6 583 % Commit at Risk 27.1 9.4 10.0 15.1 24.3 17.4 AFR # Proj 627 566 620 643 659 623 # Proj At Risk 127 128 138 136 144 135 % Proj At Risk 20.3 22.6 22.3 21.2 21.9 21.6 Net Comm Amt 40,416.8 42,649.1 49,142.6 54,586.3 59,033.9 49,166 Comm At Risk 6,504.6 14,310.8 16,548.2 16,000.3 18,949.8 14,463 % Commit at Risk 16.1 33.6 33.7 29.3 32.1 29.4 World # Proj 2,029 1,964 2,048 2,022 1,975 2,008 # Proj At Risk 387 414 412 444 422 416 % Proj At Risk 19.1 21.1 20.1 22.0 21.4 20.7 Net Comm Amt 173,706.1 176,202.6 192,610.1 201,045.2 220,331.5 192,779 Comm At Risk 24,465.0 40,805.6 40,933.5 45,987.7 44,244.9 39,287 % Commit at Risk 14.1 23.2 21.3 22.9 20.1 20.4 Source: WB BI as of 3/2/17 Annexes CLR Review 36 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Tanzania, FY12-16 Fiscal Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Overall Result Tanzania Disbursement Ratio (%) 25.0 30.1 33.9 37.9 19.1 29.0 Inv Disb in FY 374.0 417.5 395.0 428.0 212.6 1,827.2 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 1,493.5 1,386.8 1,166.5 1,130.0 1,115.1 6,291.9 AFR Disbursement Ratio (%) 21.4 22.5 23.1 24.5 19.6 22.2 Inv Disb in FY 5,260.3 5,652.1 6,143.9 6,473.2 5,572.5 29,102.1 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 24,595.0 25,175.9 26,540.4 26,463.6 28,377.1 131,152.0 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 20.8 20.6 20.8 21.8 19.5 20.7 Inv Disb in FY 21,048.2 20,510.7 20,757.7 21,851.3 21,149.6 105,317.6 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY 101,234.3 99,588.3 99,854.3 100,336.7 108,594.4 509,608.0 * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. AO disbursement ratio table as of 3/2/17 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Tanzania, FY12-16 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Fees Net Transfer Charges FY12 503,699,883.7 7,721,612.0 495,978,271.7 - 26,523,538.7 469,454,733.0 FY13 613,052,192.7 8,498,252.5 604,553,940.2 - 28,672,891.0 575,881,049.2 FY14 637,724,482.1 11,522,178.1 626,202,304.0 - 32,775,429.6 593,426,874.4 FY15 630,091,039.7 20,345,199.5 609,745,840.2 - 36,896,658.2 572,849,182.0 FY16 430,180,609.0 24,662,777.9 405,517,831.1 - 39,266,321.4 366,251,509.7 Report Total 2,814,748,207.1 72,750,020.0 2,741,998,187.1 - 164,134,838.9 2,577,863,348.3 World Bank Client Connection 3/1/17 Annexes CLR Review 37 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Tanzania Development Partners 2012 2013 2014 2015 All Donors, Total 2822.23 3433.58 2648.73 2580.47 DAC Countries, Total 1763.58 1952.31 1454.86 1444.68 Australia 8.82 12.1 5.78 5.68 Austria 1.44 1.54 2.77 0.95 Belgium 22.79 13.34 16.36 12.11 Canada 112.8 163.68 85.79 82.73 Czech Republic 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 Denmark 111.19 88.63 70.71 41.37 Finland 35.02 45.24 54.22 29.04 France 24.52 7.99 21.86 26.3 Germany 109.73 75.08 52.12 93.15 Greece 0.03 .. .. .. Ireland 44.77 43.56 33.13 31.59 Italy 6.1 6.59 4.96 4.81 Japan 147.91 196.87 113.98 94.84 Korea 50.64 56.87 79.84 71.29 Luxembourg 0.2 0.01 0.07 0.17 Netherlands 29.75 10.11 0.6 .. New Zealand 0.21 0.59 0.83 0.75 Norway 92.62 99.45 71.81 47.68 Poland 0.38 0.61 0.21 0.46 Portugal 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.01 Slovak Republic .. 0.02 0.01 .. Spain 1.58 0.43 1.01 0.43 Sweden 116.27 125.42 54.07 103.46 Switzerland 34.93 31.37 30.5 32.31 United Kingdom 250.02 237.83 245.19 312.98 United States 561.78 734.88 509.01 452.55 Multilaterals, Total 1042.72 1470.15 1184.21 1135.73 EU Institutions 132.7 106.7 99.02 122.64 International Monetary Fund, Total -3 109.99 -27.59 -61.18 IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) -3 109.99 -27.59 -61.18 Regional Development Banks, Total 130.88 203.57 181.01 213.32 African Development Bank, Total 130.88 203.57 181.01 213.32 African Development Bank [AfDB] 0.77 .. .. 0.1 African Development Fund [AfDF] 130.11 203.57 181.01 213.21 United Nations, Total 66.2 50.93 44.13 58.85 CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 38 Development Partners 2012 2013 2014 2015 Food and Agriculture Organisation [FAO] .. 0.42 .. .. International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] 0.21 0.45 0.63 0.31 IFAD 18.83 8.4 2.79 5.66 International Labour Organisation [ILO] 0.33 0.51 0.85 0.67 UNAIDS 1.12 0.99 1.36 1.02 UNDP 7.94 11.35 8.34 7.7 UNFPA 4.12 4.2 4.52 4.53 UNHCR 13.02 .. .. 13.02 UNICEF 14.56 19.07 20.38 21.89 WFP 4.64 3.96 3.83 1.79 World Health Organisation [WHO] 1.43 1.59 1.41 2.25 World Bank Group 535.29 697.09 605.8 580.94 World Bank, Total 535.29 697.09 605.8 580.94 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development [IBRD] .. .. .. .. International Development Association [IDA] 535.29 697.09 605.8 580.94 International Finance Corporation [IFC] .. .. .. .. Other Multilateral, Total 180.66 301.88 281.84 221.16 Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa [BADEA] 5.02 8.76 3.81 6.4 Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 46.86 46.38 86.01 43.58 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 4.14 7.17 7.62 6.14 Global Fund 119.84 235.7 182.76 155.51 Nordic Development Fund [NDF] 1.21 0.2 0.25 4.96 OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] 3.59 3.66 1.39 4.58 Non-DAC Countries, Total 15.93 11.11 9.66 0.06 Hungary .. .. 0.01 0.01 Israel 0.14 0.09 0.02 0.03 Kuwait (KFAED) -3.59 -0.57 8.34 -2.83 Malta .. .. 0.02 0.05 Romania .. .. 0.01 0.01 Russia 0.07 3.37 1.37 1.37 Thailand 0.01 0.12 0.08 0.18 Turkey 0.48 1.42 1.72 0.35 United Arab Emirates 18.81 6.68 -1.91 0.89 Source: OECD Stat, [DAC2a] as of 3/24/17 Annexes CLR Review 39 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Tanzania, 2012 – 2016 Tanzania SSA World Series Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average 2012-2016 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 5.1 7.3 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.7 3.5 2.6 GDP per capita growth 1.9 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.4 0.7 1.4 (annual %) GNI per capita, PPP 2,240.0 2,370.0 2,500.0 2,610.0 2,740.0 2,492.0 3,445.1 15,133.6 (current international $) GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 770.0 840.0 920.0 910.0 900.0 868.0 1,638.0 10,612.9 (Millions) Inflation, consumer 16.0 7.9 6.1 5.6 .. 4.9 2.5 prices (annual %) Compositon of GDP (%) Agriculture, value 33.2 33.3 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.9 17.7 3.9 added (% of GDP) Industry, value added 23.3 24.2 25.0 26.1 27.2 25.2 25.5 27.9 (% of GDP) Services, etc., value 43.6 42.5 44.0 42.9 41.8 42.9 56.7 68.2 added (% of GDP) Gross fixed capital 30.6 30.5 32.6 34.5 17.5 29.1 20.5 23.5 formation (% of GDP) Gross domestic savings 16.7 16.9 19.8 23.2 5.6 16.4 17.9 24.8 (% of GDP) External Accounts Exports of goods and 21.3 17.7 19.4 21.6 17.6 19.5 28.3 30.1 services (% of GDP) Imports of goods and 33.1 31.1 29.8 26.3 19.2 27.9 31.4 29.6 services (% of GDP) Current account (9.6) (11.3) (10.4) (7.3) .. -9.6 balance (% of GDP) External debt stocks (% 30.1 29.9 30.2 34.1 .. 31.1 of GNI) Total debt service (% of 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 .. 0.5 1.8 GNI) Total reserves in 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.7 .. 3.7 5.0 13.2 months of imports Fiscal Accounts /** General government 15.7 15.5 14.9 14.5 15.9 15.3 revenue (% of GDP) General government total expenditure (% of 19.8 19.4 17.9 17.8 19.6 18.9 GDP) General government net lending/borrowing (4.1) (3.9) (3.0) (3.3) (3.8) -3.6 (% of GDP) General government 29.2 30.9 33.8 36.9 39.0 34.0 gross debt (% of GDP) CLR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 40 Tanzania SSA World Series Name 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average 2012-2016 Health Life expectancy at birth, 62.5 63.3 64.1 64.9 .. 63.7 59.1 71.6 total (years) Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 92.0 91.0 97.0 98.0 97.0 95.0 73.0 85.3 months) Improved sanitation facilities (% of 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 .. 14.8 29.2 66.7 population with access) Improved water source (% of population with 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 .. 45.5 54.5 83.4 access) Mortality rate, infant 38.8 37.6 36.2 35.2 .. 37.0 58.9 33.2 (per 1,000 live births) Education School enrollment, 33.6 32.3 32.0 31.8 .. 32.4 20.6 46.5 preprimary (% gross) School enrollment, 90.1 86.8 83.7 81.7 .. 85.6 98.0 105.1 primary (% gross) School enrollment, 34.2 32.3 .. .. .. 33.3 42.2 75.5 secondary (% gross) Population Population, total 49,082,997 50,636,595 52,234,869 53,879,957 55,572,201 52,281,324 979,225,765 7,269,320,589 (Millions) Population growth 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 1.2 (annual %) Urban population (% of 29.5 30.2 30.9 31.6 32.3 30.9 37.2 53.4 total) Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 41.8 11.5 PPP) (% of pop) Source: DDP as of 9/14//17 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2017 ** Estimates starts after FY15 Annexes CLR Review 41 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Tanzania Investments Committed in FY12-FY17 Project Cmt Project Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Primary Sector Name Net Comm ID FY Status Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity 33719 2017 Active Finance & Insurance G 1,500 - 1,500 1,500 - - 1,500 1,500 1,500 Construction and Real 33972 2017 Active G 42,800 17,500 - 17,500 - - 17,500 - 17,500 Estate 37374 2017 Active Agriculture and Forestry G 2,913 2,913 - 2,913 - - 2,913 - 2,913 39198 2017 Active Finance & Insurance G 100 100 - 100 - - 100 - 100 39405 2017 Active Finance & Insurance E 24,000 24,000 - 24,000 - - 24,000 - 24,000 34240 2016 Active Oil, Gas and Mining E 185,000 60,000 - 60,000 - - 60,000 - 60,000 37979 2016 Active Finance & Insurance E 579 - 579 579 - - 579 579 579 34292 2015 Closed Electric Power G 7,000 3,375 - 3,375 3,375 - - - - 35868 2015 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 4,571 1,573 2,631 4,204 - - 4,204 2,631 4,204 35990 2015 Active Finance & Insurance E 531 - 527 527 - 42 527 485 485 36013 2015 Active Finance & Insurance E 37,700 - 15,000 15,000 - 9,171 15,000 5,829 5,829 36255 2015 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 929 - 787 787 - - 787 787 787 31696 2014 Active Finance & Insurance G 5,587 4,500 - 4,500 - - 4,500 - 4,500 33595 2014 Active Finance & Insurance E 15,000 15,000 - 15,000 - - 15,000 - 15,000 33608 2014 Active Finance & Insurance E 40,000 34,000 - 34,000 - - 34,000 - 34,000 Accommodation & 33769 2014 Active G 77,700 21,800 - 21,800 - - 21,800 - 21,800 Tourism Services 34257 2014 Closed Finance & Insurance E - 169 - 169 - - 169 - 169 35323 2014 Active Finance & Insurance E 2,000 - - - - - - - - 32444 2013 Active Electric Power G 4,000 4,000 - 4,000 - - 4,000 - 4,000 33118 2013 Closed Finance & Insurance E 3,000 3,000 - 3,000 - - 3,000 - 3,000 33182 2013 Active Finance & Insurance E 6,899 - 6,899 6,899 - - 6,899 6,899 6,899 33362 2013 Active Finance & Insurance G 3,000 - - - - - - - - 33742 2013 Active Finance & Insurance E 485 - 485 485 - - 485 485 485 Annexes CLR Review 42 Independent Evaluation Group Project Cmt Project Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Primary Sector Name Net Comm ID FY Status Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity 33973 2013 Active Agriculture and Forestry E 30,000 30,000 - 30,000 - - 30,000 - 30,000 27649 2012 Closed Finance & Insurance G 4,000 4,000 - 4,000 - - 4,000 - 4,000 29062 2012 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining G 14,047 - 4,838 4,838 - 9 4,838 4,830 4,830 30725 2012 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 2,810 - 1,706 1,706 - - 1,706 1,706 1,706 31405 2012 Active Finance & Insurance E 202 - 202 202 - - 202 202 202 32362 2012 Closed Oil, Gas and Mining E 2,081 - 2,081 2,081 - - 2,081 2,081 2,081 32448 2012 Active Finance & Insurance E 299 - 299 299 - - 299 299 299 Sub-Total 518,733 225,930 37,535 263,465 3,375 9,222 260,090 28,313 250,868 Investments Committed pre-FY12 but active during FY12-17 Project CMT Project Greenfield Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Primary Sector Name Net Comm ID FY Status Code Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity 27694 2011 Active Finance & Insurance E 4,500 4,500 - 4,500 - - 4,500 - 4,500 28574 2011 Active Oil, Gas and Mining E 230,776 40,000 10,000 50,000 - - 50,000 10,000 50,000 29969 2011 Active Education Services E 2,000 2,000 - 2,000 - - 2,000 - 2,000 30226 2011 Active Oil, Gas and Mining E 11,114 - 9,652 9,652 - - 9,652 9,652 9,652 27746 2010 Active Oil, Gas and Mining G 25,151 - 7,629 7,629 - 1,746 7,629 5,884 5,884 29382 2010 Active Finance & Insurance E 259 - 259 259 - - 259 259 259 29927 2010 Active Finance & Insurance E 15,000 8,309 - 8,309 - - 8,309 - 8,309 27922 2009 Active Finance & Insurance E 189 - 189 189 - - 189 189 189 Accommodation & 25692 2008 Active E 24,583 11,000 - 11,000 - - 11,000 - 11,000 Tourism Services 25770 2008 Active Finance & Insurance E 2,982 2,223 785 3,009 861 - 2,148 785 2,148 25391 2007 Active Finance & Insurance E 6,000 45,746 - 45,746 - - 45,746 - 45,746 9626 2001 Active Finance & Insurance E 35,569 - 10,000 10,000 - 5,998 10,000 4,002 4,002 Sub-Total 358,124 113,778 38,516 152,294 861 7,744 151,433 30,772 143,689 TOTAL 876,857 339,708 76,051 415,759 4,236 16,965 411,523 59,086 394,558 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of 6/30/17 Annexes CLR Review 43 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Tanzania Advisory Services Approved in FY12-17 Primary Impl Impl Project Total Funds, Project ID Project Name Business Start FY End FY Status US$ Line 600415 Lighting Africa Tanzania 2017 2019 ACTIVE CAS 4,040,353 601448 WFP Tanzania 2017 2019 ACTIVE MAS 543,600 602050 Bank M Tanzania 2017 2018 ACTIVE FIG 103,000 602105 Aikba DFS MCF 2017 2019 ACTIVE FIG 825,176 601114 WFP Supply Chain 2016 2020 ACTIVE MAS 1,720,000 601290 Tanzania Livestock MIRA 2016 2020 ACTIVE TAC 2,100,000 600192 Tanzania Minigrids (SREP) 2015 2020 ACTIVE CAS 4,900,000 600381 Tanzania Credit Reporting Project - Phase 2 2015 2018 ACTIVE FAM 645,000 600759 Zanzibar Distribution 2015 2018 HOLD CAS 590,357 577527 Tanzania IC Program 2014 2017 CLOSED TAC 558,310 599512 Tanzania MFS Scheme Rules 2014 2018 ACTIVE FIG 3,460,673 600155 CRDB TANZANIA 2014 2016 CLOSED FIG 394,532 599202 AccessBank Tanzania TA 2013 2018 ACTIVE FIG 1,943,280 599285 Biotrade Africa - Support to UEBT 2013 2015 CLOSED MAS 520,318 Sub-Total 22,344,599 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY12 but active during FY12-17 Primary Impl Impl Project Total Funds, Project ID Project Name Business Start FY End FY Status US$ Line 575787 AMSMETA BOA Tanz 2011 2016 CLOSED FIG 1,100,142 569788 Africa Credit Bureau Program 2 - Tanzania 2010 2013 CLOSED A2F 520,384 562150 AMSMETA DTB Tanz 2009 2012 CLOSED A2F 717,784 Sub-Total 2,338,310 TOTAL 24,682,909 Source: IFC AS Data as of 6/30/17 Annexes CLR Review 44 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Tanzania, FY12 - FY17 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Financial 4,514,341 10,424,851 35,652,617 32,512,830 (8,597,088) 25,562,844 100,070,395 Markets Trade Finance 7,530,162 5,620,905 2,970,658 9,698,566 2,260,780 10,434,544 38,515,614 (TF) Primary Production & Agribusiness & - 30,000,000 - - - 2,912,752 32,912,752 Commodity Forestry Processing Forest & Wood - (13,000,000) - - - - (13,000,000) Products Tourism, Retail, Property Construction & (Construction - - (10,000,000) - - 17,500,000 7,500,000 Real Estates & Real Estate) (TRP) Tourism - - 21,800,000 - - - 21,800,000 Oil, Gas & Oil and Gas - - - - 60,000,000 - 60,000,000 Mining Mining 8,562,058 (33,715,257) 3,184,471 7,145,953 1,011,511 (139,806) (13,951,071) Transportation Infrastructure & (6,962,229) - - - - - (6,962,229) Warehousing Electric Power - 4,000,000 - - - - 4,000,000 Other CTT Other CTT - - - 3,375,000 (3,375,000) - - Sectors Sectors Total 13,644,331 3,330,498 53,607,745 52,732,348 51,300,203 56,270,334 230,885,460 Source: IFC MIS as of 10/4/17 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Tanzania, 2014-2017 Project ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Max Gross Issuance Status 12353 Silverlands Tanzania Limited 2015 Active Agribusiness United States 29 Total 29 Source: MIGA 10/4/17