101229 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Taking Stock  U.S. job growth accelerated in October. The U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs in October, the largest gain since December 2014 and well ahead of expectations. The job growth was accompanied by a stable labor force participation rate, a fall in the unemployment rate to 5 percent from 5.1 percent in September, and a stronger-than-expected increase in average hourly earnings. In her testimony to the Financial Services Committee earlier in the week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested that a December rate hike was still a “live possibility”. Yellen stated that a final decision would be based on incoming data over this and next month to gauge whether the economy will continue to grow at a pace that’s sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market and return inflation to the 2 percent target over the medium term.  EC revised Eurozone growth forecasts for 2015-16. Against a backdrop of resilient and widespread economic recovery across member states, the European Commission revised upward the Eurozone growth forecast for 2015 to 1.6 percent, slightly higher than the 1.5 percent initially projected. However, the Commission cut the forecast for 2016 from 1.9 percent to 1.8 percent, noting new challenges such as “the slowdown in emerging market economies and global trade, and persisting geopolitical tensions”. Among the Eurozone’s largest economies, Germany’s growth forecast for 2015 was lowered to 1.7 percent from 1.9 percent, and the outlook for 2016 was reduced to 1.9 percent from 2 percent. France’s growth forecast for 2015 was maintained at 1.1 percent, while the outlook for 2016 was cut to 1.4 percent from 1.7 percent.  Brazil’s manufacturing PMI fell in October; IP contracted further. The Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Brazil fell to 44.1 in October, the most in six-and-a-half years, from 47 in September, reflecting significant drops in both output and new orders (Figure 1). A PMI score below 50 suggests contraction in activity. Separately, Brazil’s industrial production (IP) contracted 1.3 percent (m/m) in September, more than August’s 0.9 percent decline but less th an expected, driven by falls in automobile and machinery production. Brazil’s IP has contracted 9 out of the 12 previous months.  Indonesia’s GDP increased modestly in Q3. Indonesia's GDP expanded 4.7 percent (y/y) in Q3, slightly less than expected, following Q2’s 4.6 percent increase (Figure 2). Growth in Q3 was supported by a stronger increase in government spending and gross fixed capital formation. Household consumption was broadly stable, while exports declined further on account of low commodity prices.  Angola made debut international bond issue. Angola, Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil producer, raised $1.5 billion in its first international bond deal, a 10-year Eurobond issue with a yield of 9.5 percent, as the country tries to shore up its finances, which have deteriorated due to the slump in oil prices. The bond offering was the latest in a series of U.S. dollar bond issuances this year from Sub-Saharan African countries, including Côte d’Ivoire, Zambia, and Ghana. FIGURE 1 Brazil’s manufacturing PMI fell sharply. FIGURE 2 Indonesia’s GDP growth rose modestly in Q3. Index, contraction < 50 Percent, year-on-year 52 6.5 50 6.0 48 5.5 5.0 46 4.5 44 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG (Derek Chen). Number 282 | November 6, 2015 Weekly Insight: Implications of the Recent Fall in Commodity Prices for Low Income Countries Commodity exporting low-income countries (LICs) suffered a major terms of trade shock, as global commodity prices fell. This has set back growth and disrupted production. Over the medium term, persistently low commodity prices may delay mining and oil and gas investment. Dutch Disease may make it harder for commodity exporters to shift growth away from the resource sector.  Heavy dependence on commodities for export earnings and fiscal revenues has created vulnerabilities for commodity exporting LICs to commodity price movements. Since their peak in February 2011, energy and metal prices have declined sharply. Prices of copper, iron ore, and oil fell by 38-63 percent reflecting oversupplied markets and weaker global demand, including from China. The deterioration in the terms of trade since 2011 has been large (Figure 3). Since 2014, the terms of trade decline in Chad has amounted to nearly 40 percent, and between 10-20 percent in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. This shock has set back growth, as export and commodity-related fiscal revenues fell. Sharp currency depreciations, meanwhile, have complicated the task of macroeconomic management, as pressures on public sector balance sheets and exchange rates mount at the same time as growth is slowing.  Sharp commodity price declines have disrupted new foreign investments and in some cases production in extractive-based industries. The number of oil rigs—for on-land oil drilling—has already declined from its peak in the fourth quarter of 2014, by 21 percent in South America, and 32 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 4). In Sierra Leone, falling iron ore prices have led to the shutdown of operations in Tonkolili, the second largest iron ore mine in Africa, due to the bankruptcy of its operator. Over the medium term, persistently low commodity prices may delay mining and oil and gas investment. Mining investment is highly cyclical and, after discovery, mining and energy projects typically require several years (and sometimes decades) to be developed to production. In Sub-Saharan Africa, projects considered to be most at risk include the expensive ultra-deepwater and pre-salt projects in West Africa, and extremely large liquefied natural gas projects in East Africa.  Country specific factors will likely become more important, including changes in domestic mineral policy regimes . For example, new mining taxes, or tighter ownership and exploitation rules, or delays in licenses will add to production costs (Guinea, Uganda, and Zimbabwe). In some regions, rising conflict or security risks are an increasingly serious issue (e.g., Mali). A decline in resource-related investment is likely to be associated with declining investment in auxiliary projects, especially transport infrastructure. Finally, Dutch Disease (i.e. competitiveness losses due to real exchange rate appreciation) associated with the commodity boom means that, for many commodity-exporting LICs, shifting growth away from a shrinking natural resource sector may prove hard – especially in countries with fixed exchange rates. For many LICS, non-resource tradable sectors have atrophied to the point where they will be difficult to revive, and in some cases, service sectors have been unduly inflated. FIGURE 3 The terms of trade shock for commodity exporting LICs FIGURE 4 The number of oil rigs has declined sharply from its has been large. peak. Change in terms of trade from maximum Rig Counts Rig Counts value in 2010–12 vs. 2014, percent 420 160 20 400 150 10 140 0 380 130 -10 360 -20 120 340 -30 110 Latin America (LHS) Burundi Gambia, The Zimbabwe Mali Guinea-Bissau Guinea Ethiopia Uganda Togo Benin Kenya Nepal Malawi Haiti Bangladesh Burkina Faso Comoros Cambodia Sierra Leone Madagascar Tanzania South Africa Rwanda Mozambiqe Eritrea 320 Africa (RHS) 100 300 90 Apr-15 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Source: World Bank. Source: World Bank, Baker Hughes. Produced by DECPG (Tehmina S. Khan). Number 282 | November 6, 2015 Major Data Releases Fri, 30 Oct - Thu, 5 Nov 2015 Upcoming releases: Fri, 6 Nov - Thu, 12 Nov 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous China 11/1/2015 PMI Composite OCT 48.3 48.8 47.2 Brazil 11/6/2015 CPI (Y/Y) OCT 9.5% Thailand 11/2/2015 CPI (Y/Y) OCT -0.8% -1.0% -1.1% United States 11/6/2015 Unemployment Rate OCT 5.1% United States 11/4/2015 PMI Composite OCT 54.1 53.0 53.1 China 11/9/2015 CPI (Y/Y) OCT 1.6% Philippines 11/4/2015 CPI (Y/Y) OCT 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% India 11/12/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) SEP 6.4% Indonesia 11/5/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 3.2% 3.3% 3.8% Eurozone 11/12/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) SEP 0.9% Brazil 11/5/2015 PMI Composite OCT 44.1 44.2 47.0 Argentina 11/13/2015 CPI (Y/Y) OCT 14.4% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Industrial Production, S.A. World 8.9 4.8 2.9 2.4 3.6 2.2 2.5 3.8 1.7 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.6 2.1 2.3 - High Income Countries 7.6 2.9 0.7 0.3 2.6 0.3 0.6 3.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.1 - Developing Countries 11.5 8.1 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.5 4.9 1.0 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.5 3.8 4.0 3.2 East Asia and Pacific 14.3 11.3 9.0 8.9 5.5 7.8 6.7 8.0 2.1 8.5 7.8 6.7 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.4 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.4 6.1 5.6 5.6 4.8 East Asia x. China 9.0 0.7 4.1 4.6 -0.6 8.0 4.7 5.4 -0.6 4.8 1.2 4.6 5.8 4.2 4.0 4.9 4.2 2.3 6.5 3.9 0.7 2.2 3.7 1.9 - Europe and Central Asia 11.0 13.7 9.7 2.3 4.9 0.8 1.9 0.1 2.4 2.9 3.6 2.3 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.1 -0.5 1.7 2.6 1.4 1.2 3.5 0.8 4.1 - Latin America and Caribbean 7.6 2.3 -0.3 1.2 0.8 -3.4 0.1 -2.5 -4.7 -3.5 -0.7 -0.6 -1.0 -0.5 -2.0 -1.3 -2.4 -2.7 -2.9 -3.2 -3.4 -2.1 -3.7 -4.0 - Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 -10.0 6.0 -7.7 16.5 0.3 27.4 0.6 -17.8 -7.3 -2.6 9.4 17.7 11.0 13.3 7.7 -0.7 -0.6 5.6 4.4 6.8 2.4 2.8 0.4 - South Asia 9.3 5.5 1.1 1.8 7.7 5.1 1.1 -2.2 12.5 4.7 1.7 1.9 3.5 -1.5 5.8 4.2 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.4 4.3 5.7 5.1 7.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.5 3.2 1.1 -3.2 1.4 -5.9 9.8 -1.5 0.7 -7.3 -0.8 6.3 1.5 -0.8 0.5 -1.2 0.1 3.6 -1.8 -0.4 -0.9 5.2 0.8 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 1.9 3.0 2.3 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 Developing Countries 5.3 7.1 6.0 6.3 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 East Asia and Pacific 3.4 5.6 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 Europe and Central Asia 7.6 8.6 9.0 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.1 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 8.6 8.3 9.0 9.9 11.1 11.0 10.1 9.7 9.7 10.2 Latin America and Caribbean 4.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 Middle East and N. Africa 7.0 12.0 13.8 19.2 13.2 9.7 10.0 10.7 10.8 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.0 10.5 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.7 8.6 South Asia 10.3 9.8 9.4 10.1 8.1 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 6.8 7.4 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.5 10.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.8 8.4 7.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.2 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.9 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.9 19.2 0.3 1.8 -1.2 3.9 1.6 -16.0 -28.1 3.5 5.2 0.8 2.8 -1.3 -4.5 -4.0 -11.1 -7.4 -13.4 -13.7 -13.6 -8.1 -13.7 -13.3 - High Income Countries 19.5 18.5 -1.2 1.3 1.8 1.1 -2.5 -19.1 -29.5 2.9 4.7 -0.5 1.1 -3.4 -6.3 -5.6 -12.9 -13.6 -13.8 -15.3 -15.5 -9.9 -15.0 -14.7 - Developing Countries 28.7 20.8 3.9 3.1 -8.1 10.8 11.8 -8.5 -24.9 5.0 6.4 3.7 7.1 3.6 -0.4 -0.2 -7.1 8.3 -12.4 -10.0 -9.3 -3.9 -10.7 -10.0 - East Asia and Pacific 30.8 19.7 6.3 6.4 -11.3 17.8 19.0 0.5 -17.5 7.8 11.4 8.2 12.6 8.3 3.4 5.6 -3.4 29.3 -11.6 -6.6 -4.4 0.6 -7.8 -6.2 -4.9 Europe and Central Asia 15.7 20.9 1.6 -1.4 7.9 -7.3 -9.1 -29.0 -17.3 3.6 3.9 -5.3 -2.0 -5.7 -11.4 -13.9 -13.4 -16.4 -18.5 -16.4 -21.8 -14.7 -20.8 -15.0 - Latin America and Caribbean 28.9 23.2 2.4 0.6 -7.5 8.5 3.6 -23.7 -18.5 2.4 6.6 0.5 1.2 -3.3 -7.7 -6.0 -7.8 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.0 -11.4 -16.4 - Middle East and N. Africa 23.7 15.8 5.0 -11.1 -6.1 -1.4 27.4 -12.1 -60.1 -8.7 -17.1 -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.4 -15.5 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - South Asia 34.4 31.4 -1.8 6.2 -6.9 11.1 0.5 -1.0 -46.8 8.8 -0.4 1.4 0.0 -5.5 8.7 -0.7 -7.6 -12.5 -17.2 -12.6 -16.7 -10.0 -8.4 -17.4 -23.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 32.5 19.6 -2.4 -1.1 -1.1 -7.9 -4.3 -29.7 -47.6 -1.2 -0.3 -9.5 -2.6 -10.9 -11.4 -12.4 -25.9 -28.6 -18.6 -25.08 -16.04 -18.0 - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.0 19.6 0.7 1.6 4.5 -1.7 0.4 -14.6 -30.9 5.1 3.1 0.9 4.0 -2.0 -4.1 -3.2 -13.4 -13.0 -11.5 -14.4 -15.4 -9.1 -13.3 -12.5 - High Income Countries 17.8 17.7 -1.0 0.5 5.3 0.0 -3.4 -16.9 -28.6 6.0 5.4 0.7 2.4 -3.3 -5.3 -3.7 -13.2 -13.1 -12.5 -15.1 -15.5 -10.4 -14.8 -11.8 - Developing Countries 30.5 24.5 4.9 4.1 2.8 -5.7 9.9 -9.0 -36.1 2.9 -1.9 1.5 7.6 1.0 -1.3 -1.9 -13.7 -12.8 -9.0 -12.5 -15.3 -5.9 -9.6 -14.2 - East Asia and Pacific 37.3 24.2 5.7 6.1 5.0 -12.9 11.3 -9.7 -39.9 2.8 -3.1 -0.3 6.7 2.8 -5.3 -3.8 -17.3 -17.0 -9.7 -14.1 -15.8 -5.3 -9.1 -14.0 -19.1 Europe and Central Asia 22.2 29.2 0.7 2.6 -14.1 -7.9 -7.2 -6.4 -30.2 -2.0 -11.3 -4.9 -5.2 -7.9 -9.2 -9.8 -15.3 -12.8 -12.5 -17.4 -18.0 -14.2 -15.1 -17.9 - Latin America and Caribbean 30.9 21.0 4.0 3.8 5.6 1.7 4.7 -5.5 -19.2 4.9 0.7 1.5 8.7 -2.8 2.4 5.2 -7.3 -7.0 -0.6 -10.7 -14.8 -4.0 -10.4 -13.0 - Middle East and N. Africa 14.9 17.4 10.8 3.9 -0.5 -3.6 17.3 -19.9 -27.2 -2.5 1.6 11.0 7.5 -1.6 -3.7 -2.5 -11.2 -7.1 -11.3 -7.6 - - - - - South Asia 33.9 31.4 4.0 -4.0 11.2 8.7 34.3 -12.9 -54.5 8.6 3.5 6.3 24.5 7.1 21.5 -1.2 -12.3 -13.1 -12.8 -7.5 -12.0 -10.4 -9.2 -12.5 -23.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 13.6 25.3 3.8 5.9 1.2 17.2 -1.2 4.7 -28.1 4.7 4.1 6.9 9.0 4.7 3.1 7.8 -1.9 1.9 -10.1 -10.8 - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.9 11.8 9.2 3.2 0.8 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.7 Developing Countries 16.0 10.8 5.5 8.7 1.8 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 East Asia and Pacific 19.3 11.9 4.5 12.2 3.0 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 Europe and Central Asia 11.0 4.9 11.4 3.5 -4.7 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.9 Latin America and Caribbean 19.6 20.0 9.9 1.8 0.7 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 Middle East and N. Africa 6.1 3.0 5.9 3.0 -1.9 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -5.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.1 - - - South Asia 6.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 3.8 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 282 | November 6, 2015 Financial Markets 1 2013 2014 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.11 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 ECB repo 0.55 0.59 0.50 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.34 EURIBOR 3-months 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.20 0.27 0.27 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 1.98 2.70 2.73 2.75 2.61 2.49 2.27 1.96 2.15 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.22 German Bund, 10 yr 1.63 1.41 1.79 1.79 1.68 1.43 1.07 0.77 0.35 0.53 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.60 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 319 308 347 342 352 300 301 367 425 380 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 - 421 Asia 219 202 254 237 231 197 195 202 219 201 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 212 212 250 - 232 Europe 267 254 299 290 301 265 262 319 399 336 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 328 328 347 - 315 Latin America & Caribbean 379 370 406 409 429 360 366 471 537 487 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 527 527 585 - 563 Middle East 435 460 438 428 408 376 369 398 449 420 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 420 420 479 - 486 Africa 322 312 359 338 332 287 280 319 373 355 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 374 374 472 - 480 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 409 356 382 409 411 429 417 417 425 424 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 414 High-Income ($ Index) 1661 1434 1544 1661 1674 1743 1698 1710 1741 1736 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1714 United States (S&P-500) 1848 1606 1682 1848 1872 1960 1972 2059 2068 2063 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2102 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1339 1165 1267 1339 1361 1401 1411 1401 1624 1552 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1541 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16291 13677 14456 16291 14828 15162 16174 17674 19207 20236 16174 16414 17460 17451 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19034 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1003 940 987 1003 995 1051 1005 956 975 972 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 868 EM Asia 446 413 431 446 444 472 460 457 481 475 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 432 EM Europe 438 409 446 438 409 435 374 297 302 311 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 284 EM Europe & Middle East 372 348 379 372 348 360 321 257 258 266 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 242 EM Latin America & Caribbean 3201 3187 3303 3201 3194 3370 3171 2728 2451 2517 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 2070 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.89 0.90 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.92 Japan 97.61 98.68 98.88 100.51 102.78 102.14 104.04 114.62 119.16 121.38 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 121.45 Developing Brazil 2.16 2.07 2.29 2.28 2.36 2.23 2.28 2.55 2.87 3.07 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.80 China 6.15 6.15 6.13 6.09 6.10 6.23 6.16 6.15 6.24 6.20 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.34 Egypt 6.87 6.95 6.97 6.89 6.96 7.07 7.15 7.15 7.49 7.61 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 8.03 India 58.55 55.91 62.14 62.00 61.75 59.82 60.59 61.96 62.24 63.43 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 65.49 Russia 31.86 31.67 32.79 32.56 35.07 34.96 36.31 47.98 62.87 52.69 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 63.21 South Africa 9.65 9.50 9.99 10.16 10.86 10.54 10.77 11.22 11.74 12.08 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 13.95 Memo: USA nominal effective rate104.85 104.08 106.03 106.41 108.45 108.81 110.75 114.29 120.07 121.86 111.87 112.87 114.06 115.94 118.13 119.99 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.52 126.92 127.54 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 MRV 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 104 99 107 105 104 106 100 75 52 60 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 47 Non - Oil Index 2 79 80 77 77 77 78 74 71 66 64 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 63 59 58 59 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 94 91 91 92 88 87 89 83 74 73 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 64 62 Baltic Dry Index 4 1215 889 1298 1876 1375 980 954 1105 614 629 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 657 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 282 | November 6, 2015