The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Capacity Building for MoEDT (P150488) Capacity Building for MoEDT (P150488) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Tajikistan | Governance Global Practice | Institutional Development Fund| FY 2014 |Seq No: 3 | ARCHIVED on 03-Feb-2017 | ISR24927 | Implementing Agencies: Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:08-May-2014 Effectiveness Date:24-Jun-2014 Planned Mid Term Review Date:14-Dec-2015 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:27-Jan-2016 Original Closing Date:24-Jun-2017 Revised Closing Date:24-Jun-2017 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from IDF Proposal) Strengthening the MoEDT's institutional capacity to fulfill its core development functions using evidence based strategic analysis during the upcoming medium- and long-term national development strategy planning cycles (2016-18 and 2016-25 respectively). Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name New and improved methodologies for macroeconomic forecasting and monitoring:(Cost $109060.00 ) Strengthened instituional capacity of MoEDT in conducting high quality analytical activities:(Cost $149540.00 ) Improved investment planning and recurrent budgeting policies and processes:(Cost $141400.00 ) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions 2/3/2017 Page 1 of 5 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Capacity Building for MoEDT (P150488) Progress by components Component 1. New and improved macroeconomic forecasting and monitoring methodologies and tools The Bank team was informed that the consulting firm hired under this component helped MoEDT upgrade three economic models: a macroeconomics model; a production and trade model; and a government revenue model. Those models were developed under the EU funded project in 2011 and were expected to improve macroeconomics forecasting in Tajikistan. However, for technical reasons and lack of adequate capacity, only the macroeconomics model and model of production and trade have been used and then only in a limited way. The macroeconomics model is an Excel-based package with functions of forecasting, monitoring and analysis of financial flows. The model includes data on national accounts, balance of payments, sectoral data, monetary-credit information and government revenue/expenditure. The model also provides forecasts on trade, fiscal and public debt accounts. In order to improve the quality of macroeconomic forecasting, a new section on industrial data was added and the data on agricultural sector was decomposed into sub-sectors. Data on national accounts, balance of payments, trade, real economy, monetary sector, government fiscal data, index of prices and data on public debt were updated. A Methodology on Demographic Forecasting was developed, which could be added to the macroeconomics model in future. Also a Methodology on Scenario Forecasting for NDS (2016-2030) was developed, which provided inputs for Component 2 of the project. An Excel-based macroeconomics database covering data for 2000-2014 was developed. The Bank team was informed that the Department for Macroeconomic Analysis, Forecasting and Economic Reforms has adopted a new macroeconomic model developed with the help of project. The Ministry is drafting special amendments on applying macroeconomic modeling to the Law on State Forecasts, Concepts, Strategies and Social-Economic Development Programs (2003). This is expected to contribute to enhanced quality of government development programs. Component 2. Strengthened analytical capacity within the Government institution in charge of national development Consultants helped MoEDT develop three macroeconomic scenarios for the Mid-Term Development Program (MTDP) 2016-2020: pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic. Each scenario provides for different basic characteristics, sources of growth, economic parameters, and paths of development. Two background policy studies for MTDP on industry and financial sector were completed under this component. Policy studies include analysis of current situation, key challenges, strategic priorities, implementation plan and expected outcomes. A matrix of performance monitoring indicators was developed under each scenario, which includes a set of indicators for monitoring progress in macroeconomic development and development in specific sectors of economy. Macroeconomic scenarios developed under the project were used as input while developing the National Development Strategy (NDS) for 2016-2030. NDS was approved by the Parliament on December 1, 2016. The MTDP, which provides for transition to a new investment-led economic model, was approved by the Parliament on December 28, 2016. Component 3. Improved investment planning and recurrent budgeting policies and processes Activities under this component are expected to improve the planning of government and donor financed investments and their alignment with the MTDP financing matrix. Improvements in investment planning and alignment of investment planning and budgeting require changes in the Government Resolution on Preparation of Investment Project (#370 from August 1, 2011). Changes are required in all stages of investment planning and managing, including project identification and preparation, project appraisal and screening, investment programming, investment budgeting, investment project implementation, monitoring and reporting of investment programs, and interim and ex post evaluation. The Working Group on developing a new methodology on planning and implementing investment projects was established. A new methodology was finalized and agreed among all key stakeholders. It is expected that the methodology will be submitted for the Government approval by the end January 2017. Risks 2/3/2017 Page 2 of 5 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Capacity Building for MoEDT (P150488) Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic -- Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies -- Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program -- Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Moderate Moderate Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Moderate Moderate Stakeholders -- Moderate Moderate Other -- Moderate Moderate Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results Indicators PHINDPDOTBL Number of government officials (MoEDT macroeconomic department and analytical center) trained in improved methodologies of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting(Number,Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 15.00 20.00 20.00 Date 01-May-2014 23-Mar-2016 23-Jan-2017 23-Jun-2017 PHINDPDOTBL Number of government officials (MoEDT, MoF, State Investment Committee) trained in both public capital and private investment planning, accounting, appraisal, monitroing and evaluation(Number,Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 15.00 35.00 35.00 Date 01-May-2014 23-Mar-2016 23-Jan-2017 23-Jun-2017 PHINDPDOTBL Number of peer reviewers (government, private sector, civil society and academia) who provided their comments to Draft NDS(Number,Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 2/3/2017 Page 3 of 5 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Capacity Building for MoEDT (P150488) Value 0.00 1,600.00 1,600.00 1,500.00 Date 01-May-2014 23-Mar-2016 23-Jan-2017 23-Jun-2017 PHINDPDOTBL Number of analytical publications prepared for NDS 2016-2018(Number,Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 Date 01-May-2014 23-Mar-2016 23-Jan-2017 23-Jun-2017 PHINDPDOTBL MoEDT approved and implemented the macroeconomic forecasting model(Yes/No,Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N N Y Date 26-Jan-2016 23-Mar-2016 23-Jan-2017 23-Jun-2017 PHINDPDOTBL MoEDT approved and implemented a methodology for developing scenario forecasts for NDS(Yes/No,Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N Y Y Date 26-Jan-2016 23-Mar-2016 23-Jan-2017 23-Jun-2017 PHINDPDOTBL MoEDT approved and implemented a new order on planning and implementing public investment projects(Yes/No,Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N N Y Date 26-Jan-2016 23-Mar-2016 23-Jan-2017 23-Jun-2017 2/3/2017 Page 4 of 5 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Capacity Building for MoEDT (P150488) Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P150488 TF-17319 Effective USD 0.40 0.40 0.00 0.35 0.05 87% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P150488 TF-17319 Effective 24-Jun-2014 24-Jun-2014 24-Jun-2014 24-Jun-2017 24-Jun-2017 Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 2/3/2017 Page 5 of 5