ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY & POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF Page 1 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF June 2017 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF OVERVIEW Each day, more than 41,000 girls worldwide are married while still children, often before they may be physically and emotionally ready to become wives and mothers. Child marriage, defined as marriage or a union taking place before the age of 18, endangers the life trajectories of these girls in numerous ways. Child brides are at greater risk of experiencing a range of poor health outcomes, having children at younger ages, having more children over their lifetime, dropping out of school, earning less over their lifetimes and living in poverty than their peers who marry at later ages. Child brides may also be more likely to experience intimate partner violence, have restricted physical mobility, and limited decision- making ability. Most fundamentally, these girls may be disempowered in ways that deprive them of their basic rights to health, education, equality, non-discrimination, and to live free from violence and exploitation, which continue to affect them into adulthood. These dynamics affect not only the girls themselves, but their children, households, communities and societies, limiting their ability to reach their full social and economic potential. While child marriage is widely considered a human rights issue closely connected to gender inequality,1 the significance of the practice’s impacts at both the individual and societal levels suggests that ending child marriage may play an important role in alleviating poverty and in promoting economic development. Ending child marriage can improve health at the individual and population levels, increase productivity and enhance the opportunity to realize the gains in a country’s economic growth that can result from declining birth rates and a shifting population age structure, commonly referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’. To date, however, there has been relatively little in the way of rigorous assessment of the economic impacts of child marriage or how much child marriage may “cost” countries and societies. To address this gap, the World Bank and the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) collaborated on an extensive and innovative research project to assess the impacts of child marriage on a range of development outcomes, and to understand the economic costs associated with these impacts across countries. By establishing the effects that child marriage has on economic outcomes, the research project aimed to catalyze more effective and evidence-based action to prevent it. The conceptual framework that guided our work follows: 1 As enshrined in UN General Assembly Resolution 71/175 (December, 2016), “child, early and forced marriage is a harmful practice that violates, abuses or impairs human rights.” Page 1 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF June 2017 Domains of Impact Aggregate Measures Development Of Impacts And Costs Outcomes Fertility and population growth CHILD MARRIAGE Earnings, productivity & Health, nutrition and violence consumption per capita Multiple pathways Educational attainment and learning and intergenerational Perpetuation Of Extreme effects through which Poverty And Private impacts are observed & public Inequality Participation in the labor force expenditures and type of work Participation, decision-making and investments Non-monetary and social costs In this brief, we summarize results from an analysis of the impacts of child marriage on fertility and population growth and estimate the economic costs of these impacts. This brief and selected other publications from the study can be found What Do We Mean at: www.costsofchildmarriage.org  by Impacts and Associated Costs? INTRODUCTION – CHILD The aim of the study is to estimate MARRIAGE, FERTILITY AND the impacts of child marriage on development outcomes and the POPULATION GROWTH economic costs associated with some of these impacts. The term “impact” There is a strong relationship between child marriage and is used for simplicity, but one must be fertility. Women who marry as children are more likely to have careful about not necessarily inferring higher total fertility, or more children over their lifetimes, than causality. Most estimates of impacts are those who marry later in life. In large part, this is because child obtained through regression analysis in brides begin having children at younger ages compared to order to control for other variables that those who marry even a few years later, and therefore have may affect the outcomes of interest. a longer period of their lives during which they are having In some cases, simulations are used. children. In some (but by no means all) settings, child marriage What is measured are thus statistical has also been shown to reduce contraceptive use, which can associations, and not necessarily impacts lead to both short intervals between births and a later end to as could be observed, for example, with childbearing. Finally, power imbalances in marriages involving randomized control trials. Since child children, who lack the confidence and agency to be able to marriage cannot be randomized, we assert their preferences and needs, particularly when it comes must rely on regression analysis in order to negotiating safe sexual practices and the use of family to estimate likely impacts, but there is planning, may also play a role in leading child brides to have always a risk of bias in the measures more children. In short, child brides usually have more children of the likely impacts of child marriage. on average than women who marry later in life. Based on measures of likely impacts, costs associated with selected impacts At the household level, this higher fertility can lead to are then computed. Note that we provide impacts for child brides and their families through increasing cost estimates only for some, and not all household size, thus reducing the availability of funds to impacts. These costs rely on a number pay for food, education, health care and other expenses of assumptions, and are thus tentative. for each member of the household. It can also affect how Overall, the costs represent an order of people, especially women, use their time. In many developing magnitude of potential costs rather than countries, for example, mothers with many children have less precise estimations. For more details on time to engage in the formal, paid workforce. (The impacts of the methodology and how it relates to child marriage on education and labor force participation are key empirical findings, see Wodon (2017). included in another brief in this series). Page 2 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF June 2017 At a national level, through its impact on fertility, child 0.25 births in Egypt to 1.1 births in Niger. In percentage terms marriage can have an important role in shaping overall (the last column), the reduction in total fertility would range population growth rates. High population growth can in turn from seven percent in Egypt to 18 percent in Bangladesh. have significant economic consequences for individuals and Clearly, ending child marriage would significantly impact their households, as well as nationally through reducing GDP fertility patterns, with the effect increasing the younger that per capita and affecting national budgets, which must grow to girls are married. As one might expect, the effect of child provide basic services to larger and younger populations. marriage on national fertility rates is generally the highest in the countries that have a higher prevalence of child marriage, as more women are at risk of having an early childbirth and increased lifelong childbearing in those contexts. “When we have lots of TABLE 1: INCREASE IN UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY children we can’t raise AND STUNTING DUE TO EARLY CHILDBIRTHS them properly. But what Impact on number of live births over a woman’s lifetime if I had two or three Impact of Impact of Absolute Percentage children, I would be able marrying marrying reduction reduction to raise them properly. at age 13 versus at age 17 versus in total fertility versus base (national) I would be able to fulfill after 18 (%) after 18 (%) (national) all their needs and even I Bangladesh 31 12 0.70 18 could send them to private Burkina 18 14 0.55 9 school... Now I regret… Dem. Rep. 33 25 0.63 10 I was very young [when Congo I got married] so I didn’t Egypt 37 17 0.25 7 know this” Ethiopia 34 23 0.97 15 Malawi 12 11 0.48 8 QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTED BY ICRW AND THE WORLD BANK. Mali 20 26 0.57 10 Mozambique 25 15 0.40 8 Nepal 25 15 0.45 11 Niger 28 14 1.10 15 IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE Nigeria 31 18 0.72 12 ON FERTILITY Pakistan 31 20 0.53 10 Republic of 30 16 0.35 7 In our study, we analyzed Demographic and Health Survey Congo (DHS) data for 15 countries, focusing on the effect of child marriage on the number of live births that women have over Uganda 19 10 0.56 8 their lifetime (defined as total fertility), controlling for a wide Zambia 24 21 0.59 10 range of other factors that may affect fertility. Source: Onagoruwa and Wodon (2017a). (Estimates are available for other ages at first marriage from the authors.) Table 1 provides the key results from our analyses. The first two columns show the estimated percentage increase in the number of births that women who married at ages 13 and Child marriage may also affect lifetime use of contraception, 17, respectively, would have over their lifetimes as compared though our analyses using the latest DHS data do not show a to women marrying at or after age 18. Our analysis suggests direct consistent relationship once a variety of other factors that, on average across the 15 countries, women who married that could influence contraceptive use are taken into account. at age 13 are likely to have 26.4 percent more live births In terms of direct effects, in a majority of countries, ending than if they had married at 18 or later, all other things being child marriage could help increase contraceptive use slightly, equal. Even marrying at age 17 has an important effect in all but in a few, the effect goes in the opposite direction. However, of the countries included in the analyses. In Bangladesh, for in addition to the direct impact of child marriage on modern example, women who married at 17 rather than 18 or older contraceptive use (shown in Table 2), child marriage may are estimated to have 12.2 percent more children over the lower contraceptive use indirectly through its impact on girls’ lifetimes. In Mali, these women are estimated to have more educational attainment. This is because a higher level of than 26 percent more children. education is associated with higher likelihood of contraceptive use and child marriage has a negative impact on educational The third column in the table estimates the impact that attainment, as discussed in another brief in this series. Overall, eliminating child marriage would have on total fertility in each it therefore seems clear that child marriage reduces use of country, all else equal. The reduction in total fertility that contraception, but the impact is not necessarily very large. would result across countries is significant, and varies from Page 3 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF June 2017 TABLE 2: IMPACT OF ENDING CHILD MARRIAGE growth that would be seen in the first year that child marriage ON CONTRACEPTIVE USE was eliminated (assumed to be 2015), and the reductions would have compounded effects over time. For example, the Impact on likelihood or using modern annual rate at which the population of Bangladesh is growing contraception would be reduced in the first year of the simulations by 0.25 Impact of Impact of Absolute Percentage percentage points, or 21 percent (see column 2). In Niger, which marrying marrying change change has the highest prevalence rates of child marriage in the world, at age 12 at age 17 versus versus base ending child marriage would reduce the rate of population and below versus base (national) growth by about 10 percent each year. The cumulative effects versus after 18 (national) (%) of these reductions would be significant. The last column in after 18 (%) (%) Table 2 provides the estimated percentage reduction in the Bangladesh NS NS 0.38 0.68 total population of each country by the year 2030, due to the Burkina 0.08 0.03 -1.23 -7.87 elimination of child marriage and early childbirths. Dem. Rep. -0.04 NS 0.11 1.32 These effects have large impacts for the affected countries. Congo For example, Niger is projected by the United Nations to be Egypt NS NS 0.08 0.13 the country with the largest percentage increase in population by the year 2030: its total population is expected to grow from Ethiopia -0.09 NS 2.46 8.42 roughly 20 million people in 2015 to 36 million in 2030. Ending Malawi -0.12 NS 0.57 0.91 child marriage and early childbirths would lead to reductions Mali NS NS 0.26 2.48 in the country’s total population by more than five percent. This would have significant impacts on national budgets and Mozambique -0.03 NS 0.09 0.74 welfare. On average, across the 15 countries, population sizes Nepal 0.14 0.05 -2.59 -5.86 would be 2.45 percent smaller by 2030 if all child marriages Niger -0.08 NS 1.29 9.08 and early childbirths were ended today. Nigeria -0.01 NS 0.09 0.86 TABLE 3: IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE AND Pakistan NS NS -0.80 -2.96 EARLY CHILDBIRTHS ON POPULATION GROWTH Republic of NS NS 0.57 2.58 Absolute Percentage Cumulative Congo reduction reduction percentage in annual versus baseline reduction Uganda NS NS 0.00 0.00 rate of annual in total Zambia NS NS 0.37 0.77 population population population growth in growth rate (%) by 2030 Source: Onagoruwa and Wodon (2017b). (Estimates are available for other ages at first marriage from the authors.) 2015 Note: NS means that the impact of child marriage is not statistically different Bangladesh 0.25 21 2.85 from zero. Burkina 0.15 5 1.94 IMPACT OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON Dem. Rep. Congo 0.23 7 2.64 POPULATION GROWTH Egypt 0.07 3 0.84 Ethiopia 0.10 4 1.02 The effects that child marriage has on fertility have Malawi 0.21 7 2.06 implications for both individual women and their respective Mali 0.30 10 3.79 countries, as it directly influences the rate at which the size of the population increases. In order to estimate the impact of Mozambique 0.33 12 4.03 ending child marriage on population growth, we conducted Nepal 0.10 8 0.95 a number of demographic projections using simulation tools Niger 0.39 10 5.24 parametrized with DHS data. Nigeria 0.20 8 2.47 As with the analyses above, we examine the effects of Pakistan 0.04 2 0.42 eliminating all marriages as well as childbirths among girls younger than 18. We assume for the purposes of this Republic of Congo 0.31 12 4.16 estimation that all child marriages and births under age 18 are Uganda 0.17 5 1.75 eliminated beginning in 2015 (the most recent year for which Zambia 0.24 8 2.53 data are available), and estimate the effect these changes Source: Wodon and Yedan (2017). would have every year through the year 2030. The intention is to demonstrate the magnitude of the potential effect that ending child marriage would have using a hypothetical complete elimination of child marriage and childbearing immediately (simulations for progressive reductions in child marriage were also computed but are not shown here). Table 3 provides the main results from the simulations. The first column provides the immediate reductions in population Page 4 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF June 2017 WELFARE BENEFITS THAT RESULT TABLE 4: GLOBAL WELFARE COST OF CHILD MARRIAGE AND EARLY CHILDBIRTHS DUE TO FROM ENDING CHILD MARRIAGE POPULATION GROWTH The reductions in population growth that would result from Cost of child Cost of early eliminating child marriage and early childbirths would have marriage in billion childbirth in billion significant economic consequences for both household to US$ (Purchasing US$ (Purchasing national budgets. While there are many ways to measure a Year Power Parity) Power Parity) country’s welfare, we focus here on Gross Domestic Product 2015 22.1 27.8 (GDP) per capita, or the monetary value per capita of what 2016 44.8 56.3 countries produce in goods and services. Although there is reason to believe that reducing child marriage would influence 2017 68.6 86.2 GDP in a number of ways (particularly through increasing 2018 93.8 117.9 educational attainment and earnings of women, as discussed in other papers under this study), we assume for the sake of 2019 120.8 151.8 this particular analysis that ending child marriage does not 2020 149.5 187.8 influence GDP and instead focus specifically on the effects 2021 179.9 225.9 of child marriage on population growth, and, in turn, the economic effects that changes in population growth have at 2022 211.9 266.1 the national level on GDP per capita. 2023 245.8 308.5 2024 281.7 353.4 Because ending child marriage reduces population size, GDP per capita should increase even if the total GDP does not. At 2025 319.6 400.9 the aggregate level, this can be considered an improvement 2026 360.4 451.9 in welfare for the population as a whole. In other words, one can estimate the welfare benefits from ending child marriage 2027 405.1 507.7 based on the difference in GDP per capita that a smaller total 2028 454.0 568.5 population would bring if child marriage were eliminated. 2029 507.6 634.9 Based on these criteria, we estimate the global welfare costs of child marriage and early childbirths, as shown in Table 4. 2030 566.3 707.5 The estimates were conducted using data from 106 countries Total 4,031.9 5,053.1 and are intended to provide a sense of the magnitude of Source: Wodon (2017b). the potential benefits that could be achieved solely through reducing population growth when ending child marriage and/ or early childbirths. Other costs associated with child marriage are provided in other briefs and papers. The first column in Table 4 shows the effect solely of ending child marriage, while the second includes the effect of ending both child marriage and early childbirths. Because the overwhelming majority of early childbearing globally takes place in the context of marriage, these effects are generally similar in magnitude. As with the above projections, this estimation assumes that child marriage and early childbearing are eliminated completely in 2015, resulting in immediate gains that compound and increase over time. In the first year of the simulations (2015), the benefit from ending child marriage is estimated at US $22.1 billion in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. The benefit of ending child marriage and early childbirths is a bit larger at US $27.8 billion. The benefits increase rapidly over time, as annual effects on population growth are compounded from year to year. In addition, the valuation of these benefits also increases as standards of living rise. By 2030, the benefits from ending child marriage reach more than $566 billion. When the effect of ending early childbearing is taken into account, these benefits are valued at more than $700 billion. Importantly, most of these benefits would accrue to the poorer segments of the population, since girls living in poverty are more likely to marry early than girls from higher socio-economic status. Cumulatively, for the 15-year period leading up to 2030, the welfare gains from ending child marriage and early childbirths could reach more than US $5 trillion. Page 5 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF June 2017 BUDGET SAVINGS THAT RESULT children to educate, which would reduce pressures on education budgets. To estimate budget savings of this type, we FROM ENDING CHILD MARRIAGE again rely on simulation tools, focusing on how much it would cost to achieve universal preschool, primary, and secondary In addition to overall welfare benefits, eliminating child education by 2030, both with and without child marriage marriage and early childbirths should result in substantial and early childbearing. On average, across the 19 countries budget savings for governments, as the slower population included in these analyses, the savings arising from ending growth that would result would mean less pressure on child marriage and early childbirths are estimated to be 5.4 governments to provide a range of public services. percent of the total cost of achieving universal education by 2030, or US $17 billion in the year 2030 alone (Wodon, 2017c). A good example of the type of budgetary savings that could result is in regard to the provision of public education. There would be many other potential budget savings for With population growth come more children who require governments from the impact of slower population growth, schools, books, teachers, supplies and other items that such as in the health sector, for example. These savings were cost governments in the form of ever-expanding education not estimated for the purposes of this study, but would also budgets. If child marriage were eliminated, the slower than likely be substantial. currently-anticipated population growth would mean fewer CONCLUSION Child marriage and early childbearing have significant implications for women, their households, communities and nations. Women married before they turn 18 are likely to have more children over their lifetimes than those married later, which can have significant implications for their health and welfare, as well as that of their families. In countries with high rates of child marriage, the increased fertility that results from child marriage plays a significant role in contributing to population growth, thus placing an increased burden on services. The costs of these impacts are large and important at all levels. The analyses presented here provide an illustration of just how large these impacts can be. At the global level, if child marriage and early childbearing were eliminated completely, the benefits that would accrue by 2030, simply from the reduction in population growth, would exceed US $5 trillion. Significant additional budgetary savings would also result. Overall, these analyses, and those presented in the accompanying series of reports and briefs covering other aspects of the costs of child marriage, provide a strong economic rationale for investing in programs and policies to end child marriage. Page 6 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF June 2017 REFERENCES Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon (2017a). Impact of Child Marriage on Total Fertility across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon (2017b). Impact of Child Marriage on Modern Contraception use across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Wodon, Q. (2017a). Estimating the Economic Impacts and Costs of Child Marriage Globally: Methodology and Estimates. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Wodon, Q. (2017b). Global Welfare Cost of Child Marriage Due to Population Growth. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Wodon, Q. (2017b). Education Budget Savings from Ending Child Marriage and Early Childbirths. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Wodon, Q., and A. Yedan (2017). Impact of Child Marriage and Early Childbirths on Population Growth across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. The Economic Impacts of Child Marriage project is a collaborative Recommended citation: Wodon, Q., Onagoruwa, N., Yedan, A., and effort by the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) Edmeades, J. (2017). Economic Impacts of Child Marriage: Fertility and and the World Bank, with funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Population Growth. Washington, DC: The World Bank and International Foundation and the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, and Center for Research on Women. additional support from the Global Partnership for Education. This series of papers is jointly produced by the International Center © 2017 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / for Research on Women and the World Bank and is available at The World Bank and the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW), www.costsofchildmarriage.org  The findings, interpretations Washington, DC 20433. and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of material presented in this series should take into account this provisional character. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Page 7 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH BRIEF June 2017