103029 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects December 04, 2015 Taking Stock  U.S. job growth exceeded expectations in November. U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased more than expected in November, by 211,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the employment gains in October and September were upwardly revised to 298,000 (from 271,000) and 145,000 (from 137,000), respectively. The unemployment rate held steady at 5 percent, in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent (m/m), putting the annual increase at 2.3 percent, compared with 2.5 percent in October.  ECB unveiled new stimulus measures. In a range of additional measures aimed at boosting growth and lifting inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its deposit rate to -0.3 percent from -0.2 percent, pledged to continue its monthly asset- buying program for another 6 months, until at least March 2017, and broadened the asset purchases to include debt instruments issued by regional and local governments in the euro area. However, the measures fell short of market expectations. The euro surged as high as 3 percent against the U.S. dollar to $1.0935 on Thursday, the biggest daily gain since late August, but has since fallen back somewhat. The Stoxx Europe 600 stock index fell 2.6 percent, the largest drop since late September, before recovering moderately on Friday.  India’s GDP growth accelerated in Q3. Led by manufacturing, utilities and financial services, India's economy expanded 7.4 percent (y/y) in Q3, slightly more than expected, following an upwardly revised 7.1 percent expansion in Q2. In gross value-added terms, manufacturing growth accelerated to 9.3 percent from 7.2 percent. Utility sector output growth more than doubled to 6.7 percent, and financial services grew 9.7 percent, up from 8.9 percent in Q2.  Brazil’s GDP contracted more than expected in Q3 . Brazil's GDP declined 1.7 percent (q/q) in Q3, the third consecutive quarterly contraction, but less than in Q2 (Figure 1). Declines in consumption, investment and exports outweighed a modest increase in government spending and a decrease in imports. Separately, Brazil's industrial production fell 0.7 percent (m/m) in October, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, following September’s 1.5 percent fall.  Kenya’s inflation rate at 15-month high in November; PMI edged up. Kenya’s annual inflation rate increased to 7.3 percent in November, above expectations, up from 6.7 percent in October (Figure 2). The latest reading, the highest since August 2014, reflected higher costs of food, housing and utilities. Separately, after easing in the previous two months, the Cfc Stanbic Bank manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for Kenya rose to 53.7 in November from 51.7 in October. A score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. New orders grew sharply, while new export orders fell, following fifteen successive months of growth. FIGURE 1 Brazil’s GDP contracted for the third consecutive FIGURE 2 Kenya’s inflation rate accelerated in quarter in Q3. November. Percent, quater-on-quarter Percent, year on year 2 9 1 8 0 7 -1 -2 6 -3 5 Sep-15 Jan-14 Sep-14 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2015 May-14 Jul-14 Mar-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Mar-15 May-15 Nov-15 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG (Derek Chen). Number 285 | December 04, 2015 Weekly Insight: China and India's Roles in Global Commodity Consumption Demand from China, and, to a lesser extent, India, significantly raised global demand for metals and energy, especially coal, and less so for food commodities during the 2000s. This pattern reflected differences in growth models and income elasticities. As the two countries approach Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) levels of per capita commodity consumption, demand for metals, oil and coal could remain strong. Pressures on food commodity prices are likely to ease as China and India’s population growth slows.  Demand from China, and, to a significantly lesser extent, India, tilted global commodity consumption towards coal and metals during 2000-14. China’s primary energy consumption during 2000-14 tripled and India’s doubled, led by coal. Today, China consumes half of the world’s coal, up from less than one-third in 2000, and India consumes almost one-tenth, more than double its 2000 share (Figure 3). China’s metal consumption growth alone accounted for nearly all of the net increase in global consumption in 2000-14, whereas India accounted only for 5 percent of the global increase. In contrast to coal and metals, China’s and India’s consumption of most agricultural commodities, especially of grain such as maize and rice, grew broadly in line with global consumption over the past two decades (Figure 4). An exception was edible oils. China’s share of global edible oils consumption rose almost one-and-a-half times, while India’s remained around one-tenth.  The diverging contributions of China and India to global commodity consumption during the 2000s reflect different income elasticities and, for metals specifically, different growth engines in China and India. Consumption of industrial commodities tends to respond to economic activity, whereas consumption of food commodities is mainly associated with population growth. While China and India’s share of the global population has remained broadly stable, their share of global economic activity has tripled. As a result, their demand for highly income-elastic commodities, such as primary energy and metals, has grown more rapidly than their demand for less income-elastic commodities, such as grains. The industry-led nature of China’s growth, compared with India’s, partly accounts for China’s stronger surge in metals consumption.  Going forward, China and India’s role in global commodity consumption will be shaped by how quickly they catch up with advanced country per capita consumption levels and their rates of economic and population growth. Should China’s per capita commodity consumption move toward OECD levels, global primary energy demand could rise significantly. A similar increase in India would also boost demand for energy and metals. China’s economic growth is expected to slow gradually, with a shift toward services-based growth, while its population growth is expected to decline. India’s economic growth is expected to continue above 7 percent until 2017, and its population is expected to grow more qu ickly than China’s. These factors could lead to some shifts in global consumption. Metals consumption may slow as China moves to a services- led growth model. Energy consumption is likely to rise. Growth in India may encourage a catch-up from low per capita energy consumption. China, while on par with the world average, may also increase its per capita consumption as income grows. Agricultural commodity consumption growth would remain modest. Continued robust population growth in India could offset some of the slowdown in population in China and support agricultural commodity consumption. FIGURE 3 China and India’s energy consumption growth has FIGURE 4 China and India’s consumption of grain grew been driven mainly by coal. broadly in line with global consumption. Million tons of oil equivalent Million metric tons 2,000 1,500 China India 1,200 1,500 Rest of world China 900 1,000 India Rest of world 600 500 300 0 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Note: Last observation is for the 2015-16 crop year (denoted as Note: Last observation is 2014. 2015). The three grains are: wheat, maize and rice. Produced by DECPG (Commodities team). Number 285 | December 04, 2015 Major Data Releases Fri, 20 Nov - Thu, 3 Dec 2015 Upcoming releases: Fri, 4 Dec - Thu, 10 Dec 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Mexico 11/23/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) SEP 4.9% 7.2% 6.4% United States 12/4/2015 Unemployment Rate NOV 5.0% South Africa 11/24/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 0.7% 0.5% -1.3% Brazil 12/9/2015 CPI (Y/Y) NOV 9.9% United States 11/24/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 2.1% 2.0% 3.9% Mexico 12/9/2015 PPI (Y/Y) NOV 3.5% Malaysia 11/25/2015 Unemployment Rate SEP 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% Malaysia 12/9/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) OCT 5.1% Philippines 11/25/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 1.1% 1.6% 1.8% Philippines 12/10/2015 Unemployment Rate Q3 6.5% Brazil 12/1/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 -1.7% -1.2% -2.1% Turkey 12/10/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 1.3% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Industrial Production, S.A. World 8.9 4.8 2.9 2.5 3.5 2.2 2.5 4.0 1.6 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.7 - High Income Countries 7.6 2.9 0.7 0.3 2.5 0.3 0.5 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.7 - Developing Countries 11.5 8.1 6.8 5.9 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.2 0.8 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.6 3.9 4.2 3.2 3.9 East Asia and Pacific 14.3 11.3 9.4 9.0 4.9 7.7 6.7 8.5 1.7 8.5 7.7 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.4 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.7 5.9 5.0 5.1 East Asia x. China 8.9 0.8 6.3 5.5 -4.7 6.7 5.6 9.5 -4.0 4.8 0.9 3.2 5.5 4.3 3.1 5.0 4.3 2.2 6.5 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.4 4.3 1.4 - Europe and Central Asia 11.1 13.7 9.7 2.3 5.0 1.0 1.6 0.0 2.6 2.9 3.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.2 -0.5 1.8 2.6 1.4 1.2 3.5 0.8 4.1 2.8 - Latin America and Caribbean 7.6 2.3 -0.3 1.2 1.2 -3.3 0.3 -2.5 -4.7 -3.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.9 -1.1 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.0 -3.4 -2.1 -3.6 -4.0 -4.6 - Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 -10.0 6.0 -7.7 16.5 0.3 27.4 0.6 -17.8 -7.3 -2.6 9.4 17.7 11.0 13.3 7.7 -0.7 -0.6 5.6 4.4 6.8 2.4 2.8 0.4 - - South Asia 9.3 5.5 1.1 1.8 7.8 5.1 0.7 -1.8 12.5 4.7 1.6 1.9 3.5 -1.5 5.8 4.2 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.4 4.3 5.6 5.0 7.3 3.7 - Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.5 3.2 1.1 -3.2 1.7 -5.9 9.3 -1.2 0.6 -7.3 -0.6 6.2 1.4 -0.8 0.4 -1.2 0.1 3.6 -1.8 -0.3 -0.8 5.1 0.7 0.4 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 1.9 3.0 2.3 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 Developing Countries 5.3 7.1 6.0 6.3 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 East Asia and Pacific 3.4 5.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 Europe and Central Asia 7.6 8.6 9.0 6.5 6.2 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.1 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 8.6 8.3 9.0 9.9 11.1 11.0 10.1 9.7 9.7 10.1 10.0 Latin America and Caribbean 4.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 Middle East and N. Africa 7.0 12.0 13.8 19.2 13.2 9.7 10.0 10.7 10.8 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.4 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.7 8.6 8.0 South Asia 10.3 9.8 9.4 10.1 8.1 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 6.8 7.4 6.9 5.8 4.7 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.5 10.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.7 8.4 7.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.2 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.8 9.0 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.9 19.2 0.3 1.8 -1.1 4.0 1.0 -16.0 -27.5 3.5 5.2 0.8 2.7 -1.4 -4.6 -4.0 -11.1 -7.3 -13.3 -13.7 -13.6 -8.1 -13.7 -13.4 -12.1 - High Income Countries 19.5 18.5 -1.2 1.3 1.8 1.2 -2.9 -19.0 -28.9 2.9 4.7 -0.5 0.9 -3.4 -6.4 -5.6 -12.7 -13.5 -13.7 -15.2 -15.4 -9.8 -15.0 -14.9 -13.1 - Developing Countries 28.4 20.9 4.0 3.2 -7.7 11.1 10.9 -8.7 -24.3 5.1 6.3 3.8 7.0 3.3 -0.3 -0.2 -7.1 8.3 -12.4 -10.0 -9.2 -3.9 -10.7 -10.0 -9.8 -11.0 East Asia and Pacific 30.8 19.7 6.3 6.4 -10.8 18.5 17.8 0.2 -16.8 7.8 11.4 8.2 12.5 8.0 3.4 5.6 -3.4 29.3 -11.6 -6.5 -4.4 0.6 -7.8 -6.2 -5.4 -8.5 Europe and Central Asia 13.4 21.0 1.9 -0.5 8.0 -7.3 -10.3 -28.2 -17.0 3.6 3.4 -4.6 -2.4 -6.0 -10.9 -14.0 -13.6 -16.2 -18.3 -16.8 -21.4 -15.3 -20.3 -15.6 -13.1 - Latin America and Caribbean 28.9 23.2 2.4 0.6 -7.5 8.5 3.1 -23.5 -18.5 2.4 6.5 0.6 1.2 -3.5 -7.5 -6.0 -7.8 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.1 -14.2 -11.4 Middle East and N. Africa 23.9 15.9 5.6 -11.1 -5.9 -1.5 26.0 -11.1 -60.0 -8.8 -18.1 -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.4 -15.5 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - South Asia 34.4 31.4 -1.8 6.2 -5.0 11.1 -0.2 -3.4 -45.0 8.9 -0.3 1.4 0.1 -6.5 8.7 -0.6 -7.5 -12.5 -17.2 -12.6 -16.7 -9.9 -10.6 -16.1 -22.2 -13.8 Sub-Saharan Africa 32.4 19.7 -2.5 -1.1 -1.3 -8.3 -4.0 -29.6 -47.8 -1.3 -0.3 -9.5 -2.5 -10.8 -11.5 -12.4 -26.0 -28.6 -18.6 -25.56 -16.76 -18.6 - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.1 19.6 0.6 1.6 4.9 -1.5 -0.6 -14.1 -30.4 5.2 3.1 0.9 3.8 -2.1 -4.1 -3.1 -13.3 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.3 -9.0 -13.2 -12.7 -15.4 - High Income Countries 17.9 17.8 -1.1 0.5 5.6 0.2 -4.2 -16.5 -28.0 6.1 5.4 0.7 2.3 -3.3 -5.3 -3.7 -13.1 -13.0 -12.4 -15.0 -15.3 -10.2 -14.7 -12.2 -13.7 - Developing Countries 30.4 24.5 4.9 4.1 3.3 -5.6 8.2 -8.3 -35.5 3.0 -2.1 1.3 7.3 0.8 -1.4 -1.9 -13.6 -12.7 -9.0 -12.4 -15.2 -6.0 -9.5 -13.8 -19.4 -16.8 East Asia and Pacific 37.3 24.2 5.6 6.1 5.6 -12.6 10.0 -9.8 -39.2 2.8 -3.1 -0.4 6.6 2.4 -5.3 -3.7 -17.2 -17.0 -9.6 -14.0 -15.8 -5.2 -9.0 -14.2 -19.6 -18.4 Europe and Central Asia 22.1 29.0 0.8 2.6 -13.2 -7.6 -8.1 -7.1 -29.4 -1.9 -11.2 -4.8 -5.6 -7.9 -9.4 -9.8 -15.4 -12.8 -12.5 -17.4 -18.0 -14.1 -15.1 -17.9 -22.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 31.1 21.0 4.0 3.8 5.7 1.7 5.1 -5.4 -19.4 4.9 0.7 1.6 8.7 -2.7 2.7 5.4 -7.4 -6.9 -0.4 -10.4 -14.5 -3.8 -9.9 -12.6 -13.5 -13.5 Middle East and N. Africa 14.9 17.3 10.8 4.0 3.8 -6.5 11.8 -18.0 -23.0 -2.0 0.5 10.3 5.0 -1.5 -4.3 -2.7 -11.2 -7.0 -11.3 -7.5 - - - - - - South Asia 33.9 31.4 4.0 -3.8 9.6 9.0 30.3 -10.2 -54.7 8.6 2.5 5.1 23.5 6.7 21.1 -1.4 -12.3 -13.3 -12.8 -7.5 -12.0 -10.3 -9.9 -11.4 -24.5 -20.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 13.5 25.1 4.2 5.9 -0.5 19.0 -4.5 10.5 -29.8 5.5 3.8 6.9 9.2 4.9 3.6 8.6 -1.8 2.1 -9.6 -9.825 - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.9 11.8 9.2 3.2 0.8 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.7 - Developing Countries 16.0 10.8 5.5 8.7 1.8 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 East Asia and Pacific 19.3 11.9 4.5 12.2 3.0 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 Europe and Central Asia 11.0 4.9 11.4 3.5 -4.7 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.9 - Latin America and Caribbean 19.6 20.0 9.9 1.8 0.7 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.7 Middle East and N. Africa 6.1 3.0 5.9 3.0 -1.9 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -5.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.1 - - - - South Asia 6.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 3.8 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 1.2 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 285 | December 04, 2015 Financial Markets 2013 2014 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV 1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.11 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.13 ECB repo 0.55 0.59 0.50 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.45 EURIBOR 3-months 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.20 0.27 0.27 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 1.98 2.70 2.73 2.75 2.61 2.49 2.27 1.96 2.15 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.18 German Bund, 10 yr 1.63 1.41 1.79 1.79 1.68 1.43 1.07 0.77 0.35 0.53 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.47 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 319 308 347 342 352 300 301 367 425 380 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 437 421 Asia 219 202 254 237 231 197 195 202 219 201 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 246 232 Europe 267 254 299 290 301 265 262 319 399 336 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 332 315 Latin America & Caribbean 379 370 406 409 429 360 366 471 537 487 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 582 563 Middle East 435 460 438 428 408 376 369 398 449 420 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 502 486 Africa 322 312 359 338 332 287 280 319 373 355 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 490 480 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 409 356 382 409 411 429 417 417 425 424 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 404 High-Income ($ Index) 1661 1434 1544 1661 1674 1743 1698 1710 1741 1736 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1678 United States (S&P-500) 1848 1606 1682 1848 1872 1960 1972 2059 2068 2063 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2050 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1339 1165 1267 1339 1361 1401 1411 1401 1624 1552 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1501 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16291 13677 14456 16291 14828 15162 16174 17674 19207 20236 16174 16414 17460 17451 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 19588 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1003 940 987 1003 995 1051 1005 956 975 972 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 819 EM Asia 446 413 431 446 444 472 460 457 481 475 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 411 EM Europe 438 409 446 438 409 435 374 297 302 311 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 259 EM Europe & Middle East 372 348 379 372 348 360 321 257 258 266 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 221 EM Latin America & Caribbean 3201 3187 3303 3201 3194 3370 3171 2728 2451 2517 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1964 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.89 0.90 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.91 Japan 97.61 98.68 98.88 100.51 102.78 102.14 104.04 114.62 119.16 121.38 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 122.64 Developing Brazil 2.16 2.07 2.29 2.28 2.36 2.23 2.28 2.55 2.87 3.07 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.76 China 6.15 6.15 6.13 6.09 6.10 6.23 6.16 6.15 6.24 6.20 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.40 Egypt 6.87 6.95 6.97 6.89 6.96 7.07 7.15 7.15 7.49 7.61 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.82 India 58.55 55.91 62.14 62.00 61.75 59.82 60.59 61.96 62.24 63.43 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.66 Russia 31.86 31.67 32.79 32.56 35.07 34.96 36.31 47.98 62.87 52.69 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 67.57 South Africa 9.65 9.50 9.99 10.16 10.86 10.54 10.77 11.22 11.74 12.08 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 14.38 Memo: USA nominal effective rate104.85 104.08 106.03 106.41 108.45 108.81 110.75 114.29 120.07 121.87 111.87 112.87 114.06 115.94 118.13 119.99 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.52 126.92 128.15 128.72 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 MRV 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct 1 Oil price, $/b, nominal 104 99 107 105 104 106 100 75 52 60 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 41 Non - Oil Index 2 79 80 77 77 77 78 74 71 66 64 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 63 59 58 58 56 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 94 91 91 92 88 87 89 83 74 73 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 63 59 57 Baltic Dry Index 4 1215 889 1298 1876 1375 980 954 1105 614 629 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 574 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 285 | December 04, 2015