This paper studies employment patterns and trends in South Asia to shed light on determinants of extremely low female employment rates in the region.
... Exibir mais + After a comprehensive literature review, the authors use employment data from about one hundred censuses and surveys from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka to compare employment trends across countries over time. They work through data inconsistencies to standardize definitions of variables to compare demographic and labor market determinants: age, sector, contract type, location, and education. The paper finds that (i) overall since 2001, women's employment participation across South Asian countries has been low and broadly unchanged; (ii) the gender employment gap emerges more clearly in middle age brackets; (iii) rural female employment is higher than urban; (iv) agriculture is the economic sector accounting for the greatest share of female employment, although this is slowly changing in some countries, and; (v) women with mid-level education tend to have lower employment rates than those with both lower and higher education.
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Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas WPS9157 FEB 19, 2020
This note outlines some of the major gains that have been achieved in Afghanistan since the US-led intervention in 2001. The analysis is informed by comparisons to development progress and outcomes in other low-income countries over the same period.
... Exibir mais + Afghanistan remains mired in conflict and faces immense development challenges. However, donor and government programs executed in the context of rapid economic growth and sound macroeconomic management have supported rapid improvements in provision of basic public services and infrastructure over the past two decades. While progress has been uneven and data to assess progress is sometimes limited or unreliable, increased access to services and infrastructure has driven huge development gains, often far outpacing progress achieved in other low-income countries. Against many indicators, Afghanistan is now performing similarly to other countries at its level of incomes, while receiving similar levels of civilian aid. Development gains remain fragile, however, and continued international support will be required to avoid reversal of recent progress. Section two outlines the extent of international assistance to Afghanistan since 2001. Section three reviews economic performance and overall macroeconomic management. Section four shows how access to services and infrastructure has improved. Section five shows how improved access to services has led to major improvements in development outcomes, including for women. The final section highlights continued weakness in governance and the need for ongoing international support.
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Afghanistan currently faces a sea of uncertainty. Outcomes of the September 2019 presidential elections are not yet known, and preliminary results have been challenged.
... Exibir mais + Insecurity continues, with government and insurgent operations imposing an increasing burden in terms of civilian casualties. Negotiations between the US and the Taliban have recently resumed, but prospects for and the contents of any eventual political settlement remain unclear. In the meantime, the duration and extent of continued international security support is being questioned. While international grants continue to finance 75 percent of public expenditure, current aid pledges expire at the end of 2020, with some major donors signaling intentions to significantly reduce support. This context of uncertainty has fundamental implications for the economy, with growth and investment constrained by weak confidence.
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The international community is currently planning for a potential political settlement in Afghanistan. Negotiations may bring opportunities for significant reductions in violence.
... Exibir mais + Government and development partners are considering how to support, consolidate, and sustain any reduction in violence following a potential political settlement, through humanitarian, development, and reintegration programming. This report provides an analysis of overall medium-term financing needs and identifies implications for ongoing grant support and post-settlement programming.
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Documento de Trabalho 144174 DEC 01, 2019
Haque,Tobias Akhtar; Do Rosario Francisco,Maria Manuela; Kerali,Henry G. R.Disclosed
This note gives a brief overview of domestic revenue collection in Afghanistan. It provides anassessment of this fiscal year's revenue collection to date, looking at revenue shortfalls againsttargets, collections by tax type (including one-offs) and agency.
... Exibir mais + We show that i) the Governmentof Afghanistan is unlikely to achieve the International Monetary Fund's revenue projection andmay miss its own budget target, ii) core tax collections alone cannot close either revenue gapand effort is needed to prevent further decline, and iii) caution is required when setting nextyear's revenue targets. Due to a large revenue shortfall in M8 of the fiscal year 1398 (Asad, July 23-August 22), total revenue collection for the first ten months fell short of the target by AFN 2.8 billion. For the remaining two months of the fiscal year, between AFN 43 billion remains to be collected, to meet the government's budget target. This corresponds to 21 percent of the fiscal year's total collections. It is unlikely that this target will be met. On current trends, we expect a shortfall up to 14 billion against the government revenue target unless additional one-off revenue collections can be realized.
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Transparency and accountability in sector governance are basic and essential requirements to leverage the extractives (oil, gas, and mining) sector as an engine of economic growth in fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) affected settings.
... Exibir mais + Enabling them involves two vital steps. Transparency requires obtaining or publishing relevant and actionable data about sector governance. Accountability involves having the data to support responsible, efficient, and informed sector governance. Although several mechanisms exist to facilitate transparent data disclosures, the extractive industries transparency initiative (EITI) is the preeminent global standard to promote the open and accountable management of oil, gas, and mineral resources. This governance note presents a case study about how data disclosed through EITI has been effectively leveraged to support more transparent and accountable fiscal governance in two FCV countries - Afghanistan and Iraq.
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Abstract (same for all, but change sentence in red; ranking is on page 4 for every country (DB Rank): Doing Business 2020 is the 17th in a series of annual studies investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it.
... Exibir mais + Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 190 economies— from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe—and over time. Regulations affecting 12 areas of the life of a business are covered: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency, employing workers, and contracting with the government. The employing workers and contracting with the government indicator sets are not included in this year’s ranking on the ease of doing business. Data in Doing Business 2020 are current as of May 1, 2019. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms of business regulation have worked, where and why. This economy profile presents indicators for Afghanistan; for 2020 Afghanistan ranks 173.
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This newsletter includes the following articles : World Bank Group Support, Ongoing Operations, International Finance Corporation and Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund.
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This newsletter includes the following articles : World Bank Group Support, Ongoing Operations, International Finance Corporation and Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund.
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This newsletter includes the following articles : World Bank Group Support, Ongoing Operations, International Finance Corporation and Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund.
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Fiscal transparency is a vital requirement for effective fiscal policymaking. Budgets, including their underlying fiscal forecasts, must provide a clear statement of the government’s budgetary objectives and policy intentions.
... Exibir mais + Credible budgets also require comprehensive, timely, and reliable data about the evolution of public finances, which enables sound financial projections. The extractive industries transparency initiative (EITI) is a global standard for enhancing transparency and accountability in the governance of oil, gas, and mineral resources (that is, the extractive industries). It requires periodic public disclosures of information about a country’s extractive industries. EITI also requires disclosure of financial data relating to extractive industries, such as reconciled figures of company payments and government revenues; revenue allocations and transfers; data on sector exports; and quantitative information about the contribution of the sector to the economy. Analyses of data disclosed through EITI, especially in countries dependent upon extractive industries, often enables the identification and delivery of key measures to strengthen fiscal accountability.
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Efforts in Afghanistan have sought to enable systematized data disclosures and simplify data collection efforts, given security concerns that often restrict movement and coordination.
... Exibir mais + In this context, the following governance enhancements are being supported: the new draft mining regulations seek to empower the use of data for improved governance and fiscal accountability; digitized systems of the ministry of mines and petroleum (MoMP) now increase fiscal transparency and accountability. Efforts are being made in Iraq to facilitate reliable data disclosures in the oil and gas sector. Such disclosures will enable improved stakeholder engagement and provide a baseline for analyses and sector reforms. The most recent extractive industries transparency initiative (EITI) report has provided clarity to stakeholders about vital aspects of sector governance, such as data regarding licensing, revenue-sharing and allocation mechanisms, revenues collected, the roles and functions of various state-owned enterprises (SoEs), and the relationship of these SoEs with the governmental ministries. When it comes to using EITI or other data systems for improved fiscal transparency and accountability, the priority steps for the future in both case study countries are closely linked to their respective priorities: in Afghanistan, the priority is to boost investor confidence, increase governmental revenues, and counter illicit revenue flows; and in Iraq, the priority is to expand the umbrella of fiscal transparency and accountability to critical sectors and other areas of government intervention, which account for very significant revenue flows.
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This report explains about the improving livelihoods and women’s empowerment among the ultra-poor in Afghanistan; expanding knowledge on poverty reduction in fragile and conflict-affected settings.
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This note provides basic analysis of allocations and trends in on-budget public expenditurein Afghanistan since 1389. This report provides an overview snapshot of public expenditure in Afghanistan.
... Exibir mais + The report presents analysis of: i) the overall fiscal situation and the extent of fiscal sustainability challenges; ii) aggregate budgetary allocations and expenditure trends over the proportion of public spending that is delivered on-budget; and ii) summary analysis of expenditure trends within five large key ministries (Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Martyrs, Disabled, and Social Affairs, and Ministry of Public Health). Analysis is based on expenditure data included in the BOOST public expenditure analysistool. The BOOST tool is jointly maintained by the World Bank and the Afghanistan Ministry of Finance. This tool uses expenditure data directly from the government’s Financial Management Information System (AFMIS), which is considered the most reliable source of expenditure information. Data from AFMIS and presented in this report, however, does not always fully reconcile with other printed documents. The analysis examines actual expenditure at year-end, rather than planned budget allocations. Data is reported using Afghan fiscal years, with the year 1397 approximately corresponding to the 2018 calendar year. Off-budget expenditure is excluded from the analysis.
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Afghanistan faced severe economic headwinds in 2018, with the economy growing by an estimated 1.8 percent. Slow growth was driven by two major factors.
... Exibir mais + Firstly, severe drought had a strong negative impact on agricultural production. Agricultural growth slowed to 0.8 percent as low snowfall during late 2017 and early 2018 led to the loss of grain crops and livestock productivity. Secondly, business and investor confidence deteriorated significantly in the context of elevated uncertainty around: i) the level and duration of international security assistance; ii) the outcome of upcoming presidential elections (now delayed until September); iii) prospects of continued or worsening election-related violence (civilian deaths reached their highest level since 2001); and iv) ongoing peace negotiations with the Taliban. Real GDP growth is expected to have accelerated during the first half of 2019, mainly driven by the easing of drought conditions and improved agricultural production. Intensifying political uncertainties, however, are expected to have continued to dampen private sector confidence and investment. Poverty is estimated to have increased and deepened. The rate of economic growth substantially lagged population growth, leading to declining per capita incomes. The drought negatively impacted livelihoods of many of the 82 percent of the poor living in rural areas, including those reliant on poppy cultivation (poppy production declined by 30 percent). Reflecting widespread hardship, drought-induced displacement reached record levels of 298,582 individuals, mainly to urban areas in adjacent provinces.
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An impact evaluation of the Targeting the Ultra-Poor (TUP) program in Afghanistan suggests that big-push interventions can dramatically reduce poverty in fragile and conflict affected areas.
... Exibir mais + One year after the intervention ended, consumption had increased by 30 percent and poverty decreased by 20 percentage points (from 82 percent in the control group). The intervention improved women’s labor participation in a context where gender gaps in access to assets and inputs, and discrimination in paid employment, are the norm. The program is cost-effective, with an estimated internal rate of return of 26 percent. These results are the first positive and significant impacts of a TUP program in a conflict setting, with larger consumption increases than those reported in TUP programs in more stable settings.
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The share of people living in extreme poverty fell from 36 percent in 1990 to 10 percent in 2015 but has continued to increase in many fragile and conflict-affected areas where half of the extreme poor are expected to reside by 2030.
... Exibir mais + These areas are also where the least evidence exists on how to tackle poverty. This paper investigates whether the Targeting the Ultra Poor program can lift households out of poverty in a fragile context: Afghanistan. In 80 villages in Balkh province, 1,219 of the poorest households were randomly assigned to a treatment or control group. Women in treatment households received a one-off "big-push" package, including a transfer of livestock assets, cash consumption stipend, skills training, and coaching. One year after the program ended -- two years after assets were transferred -- significant and large impacts are found across all the primary pre-specified outcomes: consumption, assets, psychological well-being, total time spent working, financial inclusion, and women's empowerment. Per capita consumption increases by 30 percent (USD 24 purchasing power parity, USD 7 nominal per month) with respect to the control group, and the share of households below the national poverty line decreases from 82 percent in the control group to 62 percent in the treatment group. Using modest assumptions about consumption impacts, the intervention has an estimated internal rate of return of 26 percent, excluding non-monetized improvements in psychological well-being, women's empowerment, and children's health and education. These findings suggest that "big-push" interventions can dramatically reduce poverty in fragile and conflict-affected regions.
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Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas WPS8877 JUN 10, 2019
This report is the result of a collaboration between the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice of the World Bank Group (WBG).
... Exibir mais + Repatriation or the return of refugees to their country of origin has been rarely studied, and data on their socio-economic outcomes is sparsely available. In such a context, the World Bank and UNHCR teams attempted to make good use of the existing data sources and complemented it with new data collection methods to better understand the patterns and characteristics of recent Afghan refugee returns. More specifically, the team attempted to analytically connect insights between different data sources to explore (albeit imperfectly) questions of selection among Afghans who remained in Pakistan and those documented returnees who returned to Afghanistan.
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Food insecurity and malnutrition are some of the most serious manifestations of protracted crises, which disrupt livelihoods and food systems. Over half of the Afghan population, approximately 16 million people, lives below the poverty line, a sharp increase over the last decade.
... Exibir mais + Rural poverty remains consistently higher than urban poverty, although the deterioration in welfare has become more widespread across the country. The high poverty rates represent the combined effect of stagnating economic growth, increasing demographic pressures, and a deteriorating security situation in the context of an already impoverished economy and society where human capital and livelihoods have been eroded by decades of conflict and instability. Food insecurity has increased in line with poverty and in 2016-17, 13 million Afghans (or 45 percent of the population) were food insecure (deficient in meeting minimum norms for calories). Of these, an estimated 3.9 million were very severely, 4.1 million severely and 5.0 million moderately food insecure, with a larger number and proportion of the rural population affected by food insecurity. In 2017-18, Afghanistan experienced a drought which affected 22 of its 34 provinces, exacerbating food insecurity, triggering internal displacement of people, and adversely affecting investments in the 2018-19 agricultural season. Changing climatic conditions, a growing population, and other environmental stressors will likely continue to have significant impact on food security going forward. The objectives of the analysis presented in this note are twofold. First, it provides an overview of how the Afghan population fares in terms of food security by providing in-depth analysis of a range of food security indicators during the time period 2007 and 2016. Second, the analysis enables us to identify contributing factors to food insecurity such as inaccessibility of markets and losses in self-production of food.
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Turquoise Mountain along with Label STEP developed a pilot project for women empowerment in the carpet value chain with the goal of providing income-generating opportunities for women by increasing the quantity of high-value, fair trade-certified, women-produced carpets being exported directly from Afghanistan to international markets.
... Exibir mais + This report presents: introduction; production and sales; women’s empowerment; close-out of activities supporting female weavers; summary of key results; key project activity results; and recommendations for export promotion.
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