In this policy brief we discuss whether and to what extent recent currency depreciation is a problem for Afghanistan. We show that: i) depreciation against the US dollar has been modest and driven mostly be external factors; and ii) depreciation against the US dollar is not significantly driving inflation.
... Exibir mais + Taking account of these realities, recent developments provide little justification for additional intervention aimed at stabilizing the afghani/US dollar exchange rate or any revisions to the overall monetary policy framework.
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Hydrological and meteorological (hydromet) data collection and analysis in Afghanistan started in the late 1940s and mid-1950s, respectively. The hydrometric network expanded rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s, reaching a peak of 150 in 1980, and the meteorological network had a similar trajectory.
... Exibir mais + Two decades of war, however, brought instability and insecurity that reduced public resources, capacities, collaboration, and coordination. The institutional framework governing weather, climate and hydrological (hydromet) services as well as early warning (EW) and disaster risk management (DRM) services did not escape these setbacks. In 1996, Taliban forces sacked the meteorology office, ruining equipment and destroying over 100 years of weather records. Hydroelectric production nearly ceased as turbines were destroyed, floodgates blown open, and transmission lines brought down. The civil war and its aftermath led to the degradation of traditional observation networks, prevalence of outdated and inefficient technologies, and lack of modern instruments and information and communication technology (ICT). The absence of forecasts and weather information reversed years of development gains in farming and civil aviation operations. In 1998, an Ariana Afghan Airlines flight in route from Kandahar to Kabul in bad weather crashed into a mountaintop, killing 45 people. From 1998 to 2004, a major drought forced nearly 1 million Afghans from their farms and herds into metropolitan areas, impacting half the agriculture land, killing 3 million livestock, and seriously depleting groundwater resources in Kabul and the Kabul Water Basin.
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In this note we provide an assessment of the technical aspects of budget and discuss the implications of the medium-term fiscal framework. The budget document is technically sound and includes some significant improvements in compliance with international best practices.
... Exibir mais + The medium-term fiscal implications of the budget are concerning, however, with declining aid leaving little fiscal space for development and O&M spending over the medium term as security expenditures rapidly increase.
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This paper presents options for tobacco taxation to reduce tobacco consumption and increase financing for health programs in Afghanistan. Tobacco consumption is compromising the health of the Afghan population, particularly the poor.
... Exibir mais + Lowering tobacco consumption would help progress towards Universal Health Coverage by reducing the tobacco-related burden of disease (mortality and morbidity). This paper presents policy options for the Government of Afghanistan to reduce tobacco consumption and improve health outcomes. Tobacco taxation could serve the dual purpose of reducing consumption and generating additional tax revenue to spend on healthcare for the poor. Increasing total taxes to 46 percent of the import price is estimated to generate USD 19.7 million of additional tax revenue per year while reducing domestic consumption of cigarettes by at least 5 percent. This paper has five sections. The first section analyzes tobacco consumption in Afghanistan by socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. The second section describes the burden of disease associated with tobacco and its effect on health at the provincial level. The third section discusses current policies of tobacco control and current practices of tobacco pricing and taxation, including a brief overview of the complex relationship between government and private stakeholders. The fourth section discusses options for tobacco taxation in Afghanistan. The final section applies a simulation model to estimate health and revenue outcomes of additional tobacco taxation.
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Many forms of tobacco are used (in varying proportions) in the different regions of Afghanistan – most commonly cigarettes, chelam and snuff. The Afghanistan Demographic and Health Survey 2015, published in 2017, provides insight into tobacco consumption across the country and allows a comprehensive analysis of some of its patterns.
... Exibir mais + Generational differences in the forms of tobacco used may decrease or even disappear as younger generations grow older. As urbanization increases, cigarettes could be the main tobacco product used in the country in coming years. Almost 60 percent of male smokers consumed 10 or more cigarettes per day in 2015 (the number that indicates an addiction). Rates of tobacco use and cigarette smoking are higher in many of the provinces thatare close to Afghanistan’s borders. As the country is not a significant tobacco producer, additional research is needed to learn whether higher tobacco use in these provinces is influenced by the illicit trade with neighboring countries.
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Sixteenth in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2019 covers 11 areas of business regulation.
... Exibir mais + Ten of these areas - starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency - are included in the ease of doing business score and ease of doing business ranking. Doing Business also measures features of labor market regulation, which is not included in these two measures. Doing Business provides objective measures of business regulations and their enforcement across 190 economies and selected cities at the subnational and regional level. This economy profile presents indicators for Afghanistan; for 2019 Afghanistan ranks 167.
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Target farmers in Kandahar Province are putting into practice new horticulture methods and seeing the fruits of their labor. This is the result of technical training session on horticulture provided by the Nation Horticulture and Livestock Project (NHLP), which aims to increase horticultural output and productivity across the country.
... Exibir mais + Project activities are currently implemented in 300 districts in 31 target provinces, numbers that may grow as conditions warrant.
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Target farmers in Kandahar Province are putting into practice new horticulture methods and seeing the fruits of their labor. This is the result of technical training session on horticulture provided by the Nation Horticulture and Livestock Project (NHLP), which aims to increase horticultural output and productivity across the country.
... Exibir mais + Project activities are currently implemented in 300 districts in 31 target provinces, numbers that may grow as conditions warrant.
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The Afghanistan Development Update is a twice-annual publication providing analysis of recent developments and presenting the World Bank team’s most-recent macroeconomic projections.
... Exibir mais + The August 2018 edition focuses on the state of the economy in the context of upcoming elections, and the potential for a loss of recent momentum as confidence declines. Special topics address: i) the potential for trade to underpin development in Afghanistan; ii) recent trends in poverty and welfare; and iii) priorities for improving education quality and coverage. Afghanistan has experienced slow growth since 2014, with the draw-down of international security forces, accompanying reductions in international grants, and a worsening security situation (growth has averaged 2.3 percent between 2014-2017). Following a period of political instability after the 2014 elections, the economy has slowly regained momentum as reforms have been implemented and confidence restored. From a low of 1.5 percent in 2015, real GDP growth accelerated to 2.3 percent in 2016, and is estimated at 2.7 percent for 2017. Building momentum now appears to be at some risk, with increasing election-related violence, declining business confidence, worsening drought conditions, and some apparent slowing of economic activity. Growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2018, with substantial downside risks arising from the prospects of political instability around upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. Risks can be partly mitigated and recent momentum maintained through: i) continued reform progress, demonstrating to investors that the deterioration in governance seen in 2014 will not be repeated; and ii) continued donor commitment to sustained grant support.
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Target farmers in Kandahar Province are putting into practice new horticulture methods and seeing the fruits of their labor. This is the result of technical training session on horticulture provided by the Nation Horticulture and Livestock Project (NHLP), which aims to increase horticultural output and productivity across the country.
... Exibir mais + Project activities are currently implemented in 300 districts in 31 target provinces, numbers that may grow as conditions warrant.
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Schooling is not the same as learning. Although access to schooling in Afghanistan has improved significantly in the last decade, 4th grade Afghan students are not learning.
... Exibir mais + Using the 2017 Afghanistan SABER Service Delivery survey, we find that after spending 4 years in primary school, two-thirds of Afghan students (65 percent) have only fully mastered the Language curriculum for Grade 1. In particular, one-third could identify a picture from a given word, and less than 15 percent could comprehend a simple paragraph. Their performance in Mathematics is even more worrisome as less than half of them (46 percent) have mastered the Mathematics curriculum for Grade 1. Most 4th grade Afghan students lack both multiplication and division skills, and almost none could solve word problems, compute fractions, identify shapes, or calculate an area. We also find that students in Community Based Education (CBE) schools tend to significantly outperform those in public schools. However, even though these 4th grade students have been in the system for 4 years, they only display the knowledge of a 1st grade student. Following the World Development Report (2018) framework, we find that the learning crisis in Afghanistan is driven by a combination of the following four key determinants: unskilled teachers, weak school management practices, lack of school inputs and infrastructure, and unprepared learners. In particular, while 4th grade teachers in Afghanistan have low absence rates (15 percent) and high time on task (80 percent), they struggle to help students learn as most have very low content and pedagogical knowledge, as well as poor teaching skills. Based on these findings, the report also provides a series of technical policy suggestions.
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The high cost of nutritious foods can worsen poor diets and nutrition outcomes especially among low-income households. Yet little is known about the spatial and temporal patterns of the cost of nutritious diets in South Asia, where malnutrition in multiple forms remains high.
... Exibir mais + Using existing food price data from Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India, two methods are applied to assess the affordability of nutritious foods: Cost of a Recommended Diet (CoRD) and Nutritious Food Price Index (NPI). The analysis finds that the cost of a nutritious diet is 38 percent higher in Sri Lanka using CoRD compared to the cost of a (calorie-based) diet that meets basic food needs, and 15 percent higher in Afghanistan. In addition, CoRD varies across cities due to variability in the price of dairy and vegetables. Comparison of the NPI and the food Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates that, for some countries, the price of a nutritious food basket varies more by season and has been increasing at a faster rate than the price of a typical food basket. This phenomenon is largely due to the variable cost of vegetables.
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Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas WPS8557 AUG 16, 2018
Dizon,Felipe Jr Fadullon; Herforth,Anna WhitsonDisclosed
Afghans represent the world’s largest protracted refugee population, and one of the largest populations to be repatriated to their country of origin in this century.
... Exibir mais + Between 2002 and 2016, over six million refugees returned to Afghanistan from neighboring countries. In 2016 alone, returnees numbered more than a million. In an already difficult context, large-scale internal displacement and return from outside have strained the delivery of public services in Afghanistan and increased competition for scarce economic opportunities, not only for the displaced, but for the population at large. This note aims at contributing to our understanding of displacement in Afghanistan by comparing the socioeconomic profiles of three populations: (i) former refugees who returned to Afghanistan between 2002 and 2014 (“pre-2015 returnees”); (ii) internally displaced persons (“IDPs”); and (iii) non-displaced persons (“hosts”). The note captures and compares these groups’ situations at a specific time-point, using data from the 2013-14 Afghanistan Living Conditions Survey (ALCS). Importantly, the results document socioeconomic conditions just prior to the transfer of security responsibilities from international troops to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) in 2014, which was associated with a subsequent decline in aid, both security and civilian, and a sharp drop in economic activity. The results presented here cover the largest return of Afghans to the county following the fall of the Taliban in 2002, but precede the more recent large-scale return of Afghan refugees from Pakistan in 2016-17. Future publications will extend the findings summarized here with analysis of new and existing data covering this recent influx. This research is part of an ongoing effort to document population displacement challenges and solutions in Afghanistan over time. Data from ALCS 2013-14 establish baseline socio-economic profiles for returned refugees, IDPs, and non-displaced hosts. Further research and analysis now in progress will document how these conditions have changed since 2013-14, and will distill evidence for policy to improve socio-economic outcomes among Afghanistan’s displaced and non-displaced people.
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The Afghanistan Development Update is a twice-annual publication providing analysis of recent developments and presenting the World Bank team’s most-recent macroeconomic projections.
... Exibir mais + The August 2018 edition focuses on the state of the economy in the context of upcoming elections, and the potential for a loss of recent momentum as confidence declines. Special topics address: i) the potential for trade to underpin development in Afghanistan; ii) recent trends in poverty and welfare; and iii) priorities for improving education quality and coverage. Afghanistan has experienced slow growth since 2014, with the draw-down of international security forces, accompanying reductions in international grants, and a worsening security situation (growth has averaged 2.3 percent between 2014-2017). Following a period of political instability after the 2014 elections, the economy has slowly regained momentum as reforms have been implemented and confidence restored. From a low of 1.5 percent in 2015, real GDP growth accelerated to 2.3 percent in 2016, and is estimated at 2.7 percent for 2017. Building momentum now appears to be at some risk, with increasing election-related violence, declining business confidence, worsening drought conditions, and some apparent slowing of economic activity. Growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2018, with substantial downside risks arising from the prospects of political instability around upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. Risks can be partly mitigated and recent momentum maintained through: i) continued reform progress, demonstrating to investors that the deterioration in governance seen in 2014 will not be repeated; and ii) continued donor commitment to sustained grant support.
Exibir menos -
The Afghanistan Development Update is a twice-annual publication providing analysis of recent developments and presenting the World Bank team’s most-recent macroeconomic projections.
... Exibir mais + The August 2018 edition focuses on the state of the economy in the context of upcoming elections, and the potential for a loss of recent momentum as confidence declines. Special topics address: i) the potential for trade to underpin development in Afghanistan; ii) recent trends in poverty and welfare; and iii) priorities for improving education quality and coverage. Afghanistan has experienced slow growth since 2014, with the draw-down of international security forces, accompanying reductions in international grants, and a worsening security situation (growth has averaged 2.3 percent between 2014-2017). Following a period of political instability after the 2014 elections, the economy has slowly regained momentum as reforms have been implemented and confidence restored. From a low of 1.5 percent in 2015, real GDP growth accelerated to 2.3 percent in 2016, and is estimated at 2.7 percent for 2017. Building momentum now appears to be at some risk, with increasing election-related violence, declining business confidence, worsening drought conditions, and some apparent slowing of economic activity. Growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2018, with substantial downside risks arising from the prospects of political instability around upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. Risks can be partly mitigated and recent momentum maintained through: i) continued reform progress, demonstrating to investors that the deterioration in governance seen in 2014 will not be repeated; and ii) continued donor commitment to sustained grant support.
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One of the main objectives of the Afghanistan Living Conditions Surveys (ALCS, formerly the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment or NRVA) is to provide information on welfare and living standards, on their evolution over time, and their distribution over households.
... Exibir mais + Of particular importance is the measurement and tracking of welfare amongst the poorest segments of the population, and ALCS survey data provide the principal means for estimating the extent and severity of poverty in Afghanistan.
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Evening-hour luminosity observed using satellites is a good proxy for economic activity. The strengths of measuring economic activity using nightlight measurements include that the data capture informal activity, are available in near real-time, are cheap to obtain, and can be used to conduct very spatially granular analysis.
... Exibir mais + This paper presents a measure of monthly economic activity at the district level based on cleaned Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite nightlight and rural population. The paper demonstrates that this new method can shed light on recent episodes in South Asia: first, the 2015 earthquake in Nepal; second, demonetization in India; and, third, violent conflict outbreaks in Afghanistan.
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Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas WPS8523 JUL 12, 2018
Beyer,Robert Carl Michael; Chhabra,Esha; Galdo,Virgilio; Rama,Martin G.Disclosed
A severe slow-down in Afghanistan’s economic growth characterized the period between 2012 and 2016. This sharp deceleration can be attributed to the combined effects of the drawdown of international military forces and a sharp fall in associated international spending, reduction of aid, and increasing conflict and political instability.
... Exibir mais + These trends are reflected in the increasing vulnerability of the Afghan population, as widespread deteriorations in welfare are evidenced in the sharp increase in poverty rates to 55 percent in 2016-17. Many inequalities persist in Afghanistan, between regions, cities and rural areas, and rich and poor Afghans. Poverty headcount rates increased in every region between 2011-12 and 2016-17 and the deterioration in welfare was experienced across the distribution, among the poorest households, as well as among the most well-off. These distributional changes imply that while the intensity of poverty has increased between 2011-12 and 2016-17, inequality has declined, as the welfare loss among the top of the distribution has been relatively larger than that at the bottom of the distribution. Demographic characteristics remain strongly correlated with poverty headcount rates. Poverty rates increase steadily with household size and households of larger size are both more prevalent and face a higher poverty rate. Education (or the lack thereof) is another important correlate of poverty in Afghanistan. Low levels of educational attainment are pervasive and households with illiterate heads account for 74 percent of the population, facing poverty rates of 63 percent on average, compared with headcount rates of 40 percent among households with literate heads. While unemployment of the head of household is correlated with higher poverty, employment is no guarantee against poverty. Roughly half the population belonging to households with employed heads lives in poverty. Few have access to productive or remunerative employment. Afghans living in households where the household head is employed in agriculture are likely to face higher poverty rates (63 percent) and account for a third of the poor population. More broadly, almost 60 percent of the population belongs to households where the head of household holds vulnerable employment, or in other words, is self-employed or works on own-account, is a day laborer or is an unpaid worker.
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Afghanistan has achieved substantial development progress since 2001, but faces important upcoming challenges. Government efforts supported by aid inflows have fueled rapid economic growth, expanded the quality of and access to basic social services, and improved the capacity of public sector institutions.
... Exibir mais + However, deterioration in the security situation following the security transition in 2014 combined with declining international assistance pose formidable challenges for Afghanistan to manage its economy and deliver public services. The availability of high quality, reliable economic, socio-economic, and demographic statistics is vital if appropriate policy responses to these challenges are to be identified and implemented.
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The paper uses a detailed household survey to document precautionary wealth accumulation in Afghanistan, with wealth being significantly higher for households facing higher income uncertainty.
... Exibir mais + Annual household expenditure on nondurable goods is also lower for these households. There is no significant difference in the wealth response to income uncertainty across high- and low-conflict provinces. However, the constituents of precautionary wealth vary drastically. While households in the low-conflict regions rely almost exclusively on livestock to iron out uncertainty, households in the high-conflict areas also build up a reserve of gold and silver. This shift in household portfolio suggests a more substantial decline in real returns of livestock relative to jewelry in high-conflict provinces.
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Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas WPS8453 MAY 23, 2018
