The external environment has deteriorated during the first half of 2019, and downside riskspredominate in the near-term. Global GDP growth is projected to decline to 2.6 percent in 2019 from 3 percent in 2018, reflecting broad-based weakness in advanced economies and major Emerging Market and Developing Economies.
... Exibir mais + Reflecting slower growth and heightened policy uncertainty associated with protected trade tensions, global trade growth is protracted to weaken further from 4.1 percent in 2018 to 2.6 percent in 2019. Downside risks include a further escalation of trade disputes between the world's two largest trading nations, while a more pronounced downturn in global activity and increased volatility in financial flows. Amidst rising global headwinds, Vietnam's economic growth momentum has been slowing since the beginning of the year. Vietnam's real GDP growth has decelerated to a still robust 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2019 from a vibrant 7.5 percent pace in the same period of 2018. Slower growth reflects several factors. Agricultural output decelerated due to the outbreak of African swine fever and a decline in international prices. Weaker external demand moderated growth of the export-oriented manufacturing sector as well as overall export performance, even though Vietnam seems to have benefitted from some trade diversion due to the ongoing trade tensions between China and the US. Domestic investment appears to be slowed resulting from subdued credit growth and continued consolidation in public investment. Other macroeconomic indicators, such as more sluggish credit growth, subdued inflation and slower import growth are further signs of a cyclical moderation in economic activity. In contrast, service sector activity continues relatively strong, signaling sustained buoyancy in private consumption. Despite a recent uptick in headline inflation, price pressures have remained subdued as credit growth moderated. The headline CPI rose by 2.9 percent (y/y) in May 2019, up slightly from 2.6 percent in January 2019, driven by hikes in administered prices (for electricity and fuel) and moderate food price increases. The State Bank of Vietnam maintained a prudent monetary policy stance to support its twin goals of sustaining macroeconomic stability and supporting overall economic growth. Credit growth is estimated to have slowed to about 13 percent (y/y) in March 2019 reflecting tighter credit policies.
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Documento de Trabalho 138475 JUL 01, 2019
Dinh,Viet Tuan; De Kleine Feige,Annette I.; Pham,Duc Minh; Eckardt,Sebastian; Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T.; Kojucharov,Nikola Denchev; Mtonya,Brian G.Disclosed
The external environment has deteriorated during the first half of 2019, and downside riskspredominate in the near-term. Global GDP growth is projected to decline to 2.6 percent in 2019 from 3 percent in 2018, reflecting broad-based weakness in advanced economies and major Emerging Market and Developing Economies.
... Exibir mais + Reflecting slower growth and heightened policy uncertainty associated with protected trade tensions, global trade growth is protracted to weaken further from 4.1 percent in 2018 to 2.6 percent in 2019. Downside risks include a further escalation of trade disputes between the world's two largest trading nations, while a more pronounced downturn in global activity and increased volatility in financial flows. Amidst rising global headwinds, Vietnam's economic growth momentum has been slowing since the beginning of the year. Vietnam's real GDP growth has decelerated to a still robust 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2019 from a vibrant 7.5 percent pace in the same period of 2018. Slower growth reflects several factors. Agricultural output decelerated due to the outbreak of African swine fever and a decline in international prices. Weaker external demand moderated growth of the export-oriented manufacturing sector as well as overall export performance, even though Vietnam seems to have benefitted from some trade diversion due to the ongoing trade tensions between China and the US. Domestic investment appears to be slowed resulting from subdued credit growth and continued consolidation in public investment. Other macroeconomic indicators, such as more sluggish credit growth, subdued inflation and slower import growth are further signs of a cyclical moderation in economic activity. In contrast, service sector activity continues relatively strong, signaling sustained buoyancy in private consumption. Despite a recent uptick in headline inflation, price pressures have remained subdued as credit growth moderated. The headline CPI rose by 2.9 percent (y/y) in May 2019, up slightly from 2.6 percent in January 2019, driven by hikes in administered prices (for electricity and fuel) and moderate food price increases. The State Bank of Vietnam maintained a prudent monetary policy stance to support its twin goals of sustaining macroeconomic stability and supporting overall economic growth. Credit growth is estimated to have slowed to about 13 percent (y/y) in March 2019 reflecting tighter credit policies.
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Documento de Trabalho 138475 JUL 01, 2019
Dinh,Viet Tuan; De Kleine Feige,Annette I.; Pham,Duc Minh; Eckardt,Sebastian; Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T.; Kojucharov,Nikola Denchev; Mtonya,Brian G.Disclosed
The report examines economic developments in Vietnam in 2018, including its strong trade performance, increased FDI inflows, and public debt stabilization, among others.
... Exibir mais + It also includes a special section on the government’s efforts to reduce trade costs and enhance competitiveness. A four-pillar integrated program on trade facilitation and logistics, is outlined. It includes : 1) Promoting trade facilitation by simplifying customs and specialized management regulations; (2) Enhancing efficiency of trade-related infrastructure and the quality of connectivity; (3) Building a competitive logistics service sector; and, (4) Strengthening interagency coordination and partnership with the private sector. It is intended to reduce non-tariff costs, thereby further boosting export-led growth, improving the business environment, and enhancing competitiveness.
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Documento de Trabalho 127168 JUN 01, 2018
Eckhardt,Sebastian; Dinh,Viet Tuan; De Kleine Feige,Annette I.; Pham,Duc Minh; Oh,Jung Eun Vietnamita,
InglêsDisclosed
The report examines how Vietnam’s economy has fared in a strengthening global economy in 2017, the drivers of Vietnam’s recent economic performance, growth prospect and the country’s progress in structural reform, among others.
... Exibir mais + It also includes a special section on how to improve efficiency and equity of public spending, as budget deficit is being contained.
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The report examines how Vietnam’s economy has fared in a strengthening global economy in 2017, the drivers of Vietnam’s recent economic performance, growth prospect and the country’s progress in structural reform, among others.
... Exibir mais + It also includes a special section on how to improve efficiency and equity of public spending, as budget deficit is being contained.
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A broad-based recovery in global economic activity has been taking hold since late 2016. Industrial production has picked up and global trade accelerated after two years of pronounced weakness.
... Exibir mais + A gradual recovery in commodity prices diminished growth constraints among commodity exporters, including major emerging economies. Despite heightened policy uncertainty, growth in major advanced economies, including the United States, the European Union, and Japan, has strengthened, reflecting buoyant domestic demand and rising exports. Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient as already robust domestic demand was supported by a pickup in external demand and a gradual recovery in commodity prices. After a large surplus in 2016, Vietnam’s external current account balance started to decline in early 2017. Robust growth in exports, tourism receipts, and private remittances led to a current account surplus of about 4 percent of GDP in 2016, marking the sixth consecutive year of a widening current account surplus. The financial account also saw large net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and long-term loans, allowing the State Bank of Vietnam to gradually rebuild foreign reserves. The current account surplus started to decline in early 2017 due to a recovery in import growth. Bolstered by a strong external position, the nominal exchange rate has been relatively stable but the real exchange rate continues to appreciate. The reference rate was devalued modestly by 1.23 percent in 2016 and around 1.3 percent year-to-date in 2017. Meanwhile, the real effective exchange rate continued to appreciate by about 5 percent in 2016 and 24 percent since 2010. Real exchange rate appreciation is driven by a large external surplus of the FDI sector, but is a concern for Vietnam’s domestic private enterprises, which continue to face significant external imbalance and competitiveness challenges. This special focus issue is part of two-part series on fiscal reforms. While this installment of the taking stock special topic is focused on specific revenue and debt management options to underpin more sustainable and efficient fiscal management, the December issue will focus on expenditure restructuring.
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A broad-based recovery in global economic activity has been taking hold since late 2016. Industrial production has picked up and global trade accelerated after two years of pronounced weakness.
... Exibir mais + A gradual recovery in commodity prices diminished growth constraints among commodity exporters, including major emerging economies. Despite heightened policy uncertainty, growth in major advanced economies, including the United States, the European Union, and Japan, has strengthened, reflecting buoyant domestic demand and rising exports. Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient as already robust domestic demand was supported by a pickup in external demand and a gradual recovery in commodity prices. After a large surplus in 2016, Vietnam’s external current account balance started to decline in early 2017. Robust growth in exports, tourism receipts, and private remittances led to a current account surplus of about 4 percent of GDP in 2016, marking the sixth consecutive year of a widening current account surplus. The financial account also saw large net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and long-term loans, allowing the State Bank of Vietnam to gradually rebuild foreign reserves. The current account surplus started to decline in early 2017 due to a recovery in import growth. Bolstered by a strong external position, the nominal exchange rate has been relatively stable but the real exchange rate continues to appreciate. The reference rate was devalued modestly by 1.23 percent in 2016 and around 1.3 percent year-to-date in 2017. Meanwhile, the real effective exchange rate continued to appreciate by about 5 percent in 2016 and 24 percent since 2010. Real exchange rate appreciation is driven by a large external surplus of the FDI sector, but is a concern for Vietnam’s domestic private enterprises, which continue to face significant external imbalance and competitiveness challenges. This special focus issue is part of two-part series on fiscal reforms. While this installment of the taking stock special topic is focused on specific revenue and debt management options to underpin more sustainable and efficient fiscal management, the December issue will focus on expenditure restructuring.
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Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient and in line with previous expectations. Already robust domestic demand has been supported by some pickup in external demand and the gradual recovery in commodity prices.
... Exibir mais + Fiscal deficits in the major regional economies widened in 2016, prompting some adjustment toward the end of the year in Indonesia and Malaysia. Monetary policies remained accommodative, and credit continued to grow rapidly in most major economies. Inflation is edging up and producer prices are rising quickly as commodity prices increase. Capital outflows intensified toward end-2016 leading to depreciation pressures, but financial markets have since recovered. The growth outlook for 2017–19 remains broadly positive across the region. China is expected to continue its gradual transition to lower, more sustainable growth. In the rest of the region, growth is projected to pick up moderately. Continued buoyancy in domestic demand, including public and increasingly private investment, will be supported by gradually strengthening external demand. Global growth and commodity prices are projected to continue recovering slowly, while global financial conditions tighten gradually. Inflationary pressures should remain contained. In the Pacific Island Countries, maintaining fiscal sustainability needs to remain a focus along with policy reforms in selected sectors, which could prove transformational over the medium term. For fiscal sustainability, efforts to shore up revenues, contain unproductive spending while boosting critical expenditures on health and education, and build up buffers against shocks need to be sustained. There are also opportunities to accelerate growth and boost employment over the longer term. On tourism, promising options include tapping into the Chinese and retiree market, increasing the number of luxury resorts, and encouraging cruise ships to base in the Pacific. Increases in labor mobility, through the expansion of existing agreements and the negotiation of new agreements, complemented by investments in workers’ human capital, could also generate substantial benefits. Higher mobile and internet penetration, complemented by a conducive business environment and the development of a skilled workforce could boost productivity. And income from fisheries could be significantly increased, without threatening the sustainability of the fisheries stock, by broadening participation in cooperative agreements to include East Asian countries with major fishing grounds, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, and ensuring compliance with robust catch limits.
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Over recent decades, Vietnam’s agricultural sector has made enormous progress, realizing major gains in productivity and output and contributing to national goals related to food security, poverty reduction, social stability, and trade.
... Exibir mais + Nevertheless, there are growing concerns related to the quality and sustainability of Vietnam’s agricultural growth and related patterns of development. A comparatively low quality of growth is manifested by low smallholder farmer profitability, considerable under-employment among agricultural workers, mixed or uncertain product quality and food safety, low value addition, and limited technological or institutionalinnovation. Some agricultural growth has come at the expense of the environment in the forms of deforestation, biodiversity loss, land degradation, water pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. In most locations, agricultural growth has involved an increase in cropping areas or intensities and ever higher uses of inputs and natural resources. Hence, more output has come from more and more inputs and increasing environmental costs. Vietnamese agriculture now sits at a turning point. The sector now faces growing domestic competition—from cities, industry, and services—for labor, land and water. Rising labor costs are beginning to inhibit the sector’s ability to compete internationally as a low cost producer of bulk undifferentiated commodities. The country’s ruralyouth have rising aspirations for living standards. Vietnam’s expanding consumer class and trade partners are expecting higher standards, both for products and production practices. Going forward, Vietnam’s agriculture will need to generate ‘more from less’. That is, it will need to generate more economic value—and farmer and consumer welfare—using less natural and human resources and without degrading the environment. It will need to rebrand itself and increasingly compete on the bases of innovation, reliable supply, predictable quality, and assured food safety and environmental protection.
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Documento de Trabalho 110676 DEC 01, 2016
Dinh,Viet Tuan; Eckardt,Sebastian; Jaffee,Steven M. Vietnamita,
InglêsDisclosed
Over recent decades, Vietnam’s agricultural sector has made enormous progress, realizing major gains in productivity and output and contributing to national goals related to food security, poverty reduction, social stability, and trade.
... Exibir mais + Nevertheless, there are growing concerns related to the quality and sustainability of Vietnam’s agricultural growth and related patterns of development. A comparatively low quality of growth is manifested by low smallholder farmer profitability, considerable under-employment among agricultural workers, mixed or uncertain product quality and food safety, low value addition, and limited technological or institutionalinnovation. Some agricultural growth has come at the expense of the environment in the forms of deforestation, biodiversity loss, land degradation, water pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. In most locations, agricultural growth has involved an increase in cropping areas or intensities and ever higher uses of inputs and natural resources. Hence, more output has come from more and more inputs and increasing environmental costs. Vietnamese agriculture now sits at a turning point. The sector now faces growing domestic competition—from cities, industry, and services—for labor, land and water. Rising labor costs are beginning to inhibit the sector’s ability to compete internationally as a low cost producer of bulk undifferentiated commodities. The country’s ruralyouth have rising aspirations for living standards. Vietnam’s expanding consumer class and trade partners are expecting higher standards, both for products and production practices. Going forward, Vietnam’s agriculture will need to generate ‘more from less’. That is, it will need to generate more economic value—and farmer and consumer welfare—using less natural and human resources and without degrading the environment. It will need to rebrand itself and increasingly compete on the bases of innovation, reliable supply, predictable quality, and assured food safety and environmental protection.
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Documento de Trabalho 110676 DEC 01, 2016
Dinh,Viet Tuan; Eckardt,Sebastian; Jaffee,Steven M. Vietnamita,
InglêsDisclosed
Global economic activity is showing little sign of improvement in 2016, but growth in the emerging East Asia and the Pacific remains resilient.
... Exibir mais + In Vietnam economic activity moderated in the first half of 2016, mainly due to the impact of a severe drought on agricultural production and slower industrial growth. GDP is projected to grow by 6 percent in 2016 with inflationary pressures contained and the current account in balance. The fiscal deficit is projected to remain high this year but then tighten over the medium term, reflecting the government’s fiscal consolidation plans. The baseline outlook is subject to external and domestic risks. The speed of demographic transition in Vietnam poses new challenges for policymakers, employers and citizens, some of them urgent. There are also significant challenges for healthcare and aged/long-term care systems. The health delivery system will require a fundamental reorientation towards more emphasis on primary care and reduced reliance on hospital care in order to manage the increase in non-communicable diseases exacerbated by aging. There will need to be reforms of human resource policies and programs for the health sector, requiring new graduate and post-graduate training programs for general practitioners, as well as retraining of existing cadres. Reorientation to primary care and case management will also benefit from reforms in provider payment mechanisms for health services, strengthened gate-keeping modalities to control unnecessary hospital usage and admissions, and improved coordination of care across levels of the health system. There will also be a need for efficiency improvements in areas such as pharmaceutical procurement and prescription practices, as well as greater focus on managing conditions of age such as dementia. Growing demand for aged care will also require proactive public policy, with an emphasis on home- and community-based care and defining of appropriate roles for the state, the private sector, communities and households.
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Global economic activity is showing little sign of improvement in 2016, but growth in the emerging East Asia and the Pacific remains resilient.
... Exibir mais + In Vietnam economic activity moderated in the first half of 2016, mainly due to the impact of a severe drought on agricultural production and slower industrial growth. GDP is projected to grow by 6 percent in 2016 with inflationary pressures contained and the current account in balance. The fiscal deficit is projected to remain high this year but then tighten over the medium term, reflecting the government’s fiscal consolidation plans. The baseline outlook is subject to external and domestic risks. The speed of demographic transition in Vietnam poses new challenges for policymakers, employers and citizens, some of them urgent. There are also significant challenges for healthcare and aged/long-term care systems. The health delivery system will require a fundamental reorientation towards more emphasis on primary care and reduced reliance on hospital care in order to manage the increase in non-communicable diseases exacerbated by aging. There will need to be reforms of human resource policies and programs for the health sector, requiring new graduate and post-graduate training programs for general practitioners, as well as retraining of existing cadres. Reorientation to primary care and case management will also benefit from reforms in provider payment mechanisms for health services, strengthened gate-keeping modalities to control unnecessary hospital usage and admissions, and improved coordination of care across levels of the health system. There will also be a need for efficiency improvements in areas such as pharmaceutical procurement and prescription practices, as well as greater focus on managing conditions of age such as dementia. Growing demand for aged care will also require proactive public policy, with an emphasis on home- and community-based care and defining of appropriate roles for the state, the private sector, communities and households.
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In the six months since the previous East Asia and Pacific (EAP) economic update, developing EAP has faced a challenging external environment. Financial market conditions in the region, however, have been volatile over much of the past 6 months, as in the rest of the world.
... Exibir mais + Over the next two to three years, growth in developing EAP is expected to ease modestly. Poverty in developing EAP has declined rapidly in recent years, and is projected to fall further with continued growth; however, in several countries the pace of poverty reduction has been restricted by limited labor market opportunities, particularly for disadvantaged groups. The positive outlook for growth and poverty reduction in the region in this base case is subject to elevated risks. The outlook for the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) is heavily dependent on their ability to overcome geographic constraints and take advantage of the relatively narrow set of opportunities available to them. Sustaining the pace of poverty reduction will require measures to enhance the business environment, improve education and health outcomes, and strengthen social safety nets.
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The global economy is showing signs of recovery, but at an uneven pace; global growth is expected to rise modestly to 2.6 percent in 2014, and an average 3.3 percent in 201517.
... Exibir mais + The gradual strengthening of activity in the Euro Area and especially the US will boost demand for exports from developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP), helping the region sustain its growth performance. There are early signs of firming up of economic recovery in Vietnam. GDP growth picked up to a relatively brisk 6.2 percent (y-o-y) in the third quarter of 2014, contributing to an overall growth rate of 5.6 percent for the first nine months of the year. Credit growth continues to come in below target, hampering the State Bank of Vietnam's efforts to carry out credit expansion to support economic growth. The Government has taken some important measures in 2014 to improve business conditions, which are expected to bear fruit from 2015 onward. The Government issued Resolution 19 (March 18, 2014), which prioritizes shortening the time for processing and completion of administrative procedures, reducing administrative costs, and strengthening transparency and accountability of state administrative agencies. The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) provides a comprehensive framework to identify financial system vulnerabilities and develop appropriate policy responses. Recognizing its importance, in July 2012 the Government of Vietnam invited the World Bank and the IMF to initiate an FSAP for Vietnam. In recent years the Vietnamese economy had shown signs of corporate and financial distress, and slowdown in GDP growth. In response to this, the government announced a comprehensive reform program designed to address the problems faced by the financial and corporate sectors. The FSAP provides a broad set of policy recommendations that can be used to operationalize the SEDP and the banking restructuring program. The recommendations include recapitalization plans, the workout of NPLs, regulatory and other reforms, and the temporary extension of the safety net.
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Documento de Trabalho 92825 DEC 01, 2014
Mahajan, Sandeep; Dinh, Viet Tuan; Rab, Habib; Trieu, Viet Quoc; Nguyen, Lan Van; Kwakwa, Victoria; Verghis, Matthew Vietnamita,
InglêsDisclosed
The global economy is showing signs of recovery, but at an uneven pace; global growth is expected to rise modestly to 2.6 percent in 2014, and an average 3.3 percent in 201517.
... Exibir mais + The gradual strengthening of activity in the Euro Area and especially the US will boost demand for exports from developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP), helping the region sustain its growth performance. There are early signs of firming up of economic recovery in Vietnam. GDP growth picked up to a relatively brisk 6.2 percent (y-o-y) in the third quarter of 2014, contributing to an overall growth rate of 5.6 percent for the first nine months of the year. Credit growth continues to come in below target, hampering the State Bank of Vietnam's efforts to carry out credit expansion to support economic growth. The Government has taken some important measures in 2014 to improve business conditions, which are expected to bear fruit from 2015 onward. The Government issued Resolution 19 (March 18, 2014), which prioritizes shortening the time for processing and completion of administrative procedures, reducing administrative costs, and strengthening transparency and accountability of state administrative agencies. The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) provides a comprehensive framework to identify financial system vulnerabilities and develop appropriate policy responses. Recognizing its importance, in July 2012 the Government of Vietnam invited the World Bank and the IMF to initiate an FSAP for Vietnam. In recent years the Vietnamese economy had shown signs of corporate and financial distress, and slowdown in GDP growth. In response to this, the government announced a comprehensive reform program designed to address the problems faced by the financial and corporate sectors. The FSAP provides a broad set of policy recommendations that can be used to operationalize the SEDP and the banking restructuring program. The recommendations include recapitalization plans, the workout of NPLs, regulatory and other reforms, and the temporary extension of the safety net.
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Documento de Trabalho 92825 DEC 01, 2014
Mahajan, Sandeep; Dinh, Viet Tuan; Rab, Habib; Trieu, Viet Quoc; Nguyen, Lan Van; Kwakwa, Victoria; Verghis, Matthew Vietnamita,
InglêsDisclosed
This issue of the East Asia and Pacific economic update is based on data available through September 29, inclusive. This report also includes a special section, focusing on two crucial medium-term issues facing developing East Asia and Pacific: education and skills development, and international migration; and an overview of the economic prospects and policy priorities for the Pacific Island Countries.
... Exibir mais + Overall, the global economy is showing signs of recovery, but at an uneven pace; global growth is expected to rise modestly to 2.6 percent in 2014, and an average 3.3 percent in from 2015 to 2017. The gradual strengthening of activity in high-income economies will boost demand for exports from developing East Asia and Pacific, helping the region sustain its growth performance. In China growth will gradually moderate to 7.4 percent in 2014 and 7.1 percent in 2016, reflecting intensified policy efforts to address financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints, and place the economy on a more sustainable growth path. In the rest of the region, growth will gradually pick up, as exports firm and the impact of domestic adjustment in the large ASEAN countries eases. Investment in the large ASEAN economies weakened, while private consumption remained resilient. Fiscal policy in many countries has aimed at rebuilding fiscal space but these efforts need to be sustained. Credit growth has slowed reflecting tighter policies and inflation generally remains low. Significant uncertainties remain about the strength and sustainability of the recovery in high-income economies, as well as about the timing of policy actions by central banks in these countries. In this uncertain global environment, there is still a window of opportunity to enact critical, and in some cases overdue,reforms; the short-term priority in several countries is to address the vulnerabilities and inefficiencies that have been created by an extended period of loose financial conditions and fiscal stimulus. In China the authorities need to strike a balance between containing the growing risks from rising leverage and meeting the indicative growth targets. Over the longer term, the focus in most countries must be on implementing the structural reforms needed to enhance their export competitiveness.
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Macroeconomic stability in Vietnam is improving, underpinned by moderating inflation and strengthening external accounts. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has stabilized, aided by subdued credit growth and easing of food price increases.
... Exibir mais + The decline in core inflation has been more gradual. Pressure on the Vietnamese currency has also eased substantially. A sustained recovery in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains hampered however by slow-moving structural reforms and global uncertainty. With rising pressures on the budget, the government is faced with some crucial fiscal policy choices, as it seeks to balance the objectives of economic expansion and macroeconomic stability. This paper explores crucial issues such as trade facilitation, competitiveness and growth, poverty and inequality, corruption and economic growth in Vietnam, the external economic environment, and recent economic developments in Vietnam.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 83283 DEC 01, 2013
Macroeconomic stability in Vietnam is improving, underpinned by moderating inflation and strengthening external accounts. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has stabilized, aided by subdued credit growth and easing of food price increases.
... Exibir mais + The decline in core inflation has been more gradual. Pressure on the Vietnamese currency has also eased substantially. A sustained recovery in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains hampered however by slow-moving structural reforms and global uncertainty. With rising pressures on the budget, the government is faced with some crucial fiscal policy choices, as it seeks to balance the objectives of economic expansion and macroeconomic stability. This paper explores crucial issues such as trade facilitation, competitiveness and growth, poverty and inequality, corruption and economic growth in Vietnam, the external economic environment, and recent economic developments in Vietnam.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 83283 DEC 01, 2013
This paper includes three parts: external economic environment, part one includes: global environment, regional environment, and risks. Vietnam's recent economic development, part two includes: a relatively stable macroeconomic situation, growth at record low, booming exports despite a slowing economy, sharp turnaround in external accounts, inflation dynamics, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and near-term outlook.
... Exibir mais + Structural reforms and medium-term outlook, part three includes: context, restructuring of state-owned enterprises, banking Sector development, and poverty reduction.
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This paper includes three parts: external economic environment, part one includes: global environment, regional environment, and risks. Vietnam's recent economic development, part two includes: a relatively stable macroeconomic situation, growth at record low, booming exports despite a slowing economy, sharp turnaround in external accounts, inflation dynamics, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and near-term outlook.
... Exibir mais + Structural reforms and medium-term outlook, part three includes: context, restructuring of state-owned enterprises, banking Sector development, and poverty reduction.
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