Despite the significant progress Ukraine made on its structural reform agenda, social assistance reform remains a key priority in the face of high levels of poverty (estimated at 27 percent according to the World Bank (WB) methodology, 2016 data) and continuing fiscal pressures.
... Exibir mais + The modernization of the safety-net can provide much more effective welfare support to the population while consuming fewer fiscal resources. The key to this approach is fiscal consolidation and rebalancing of the fiscal resources from housing utilities subsidy (HUS) to minimum income support (GMI) for improved targeting of social safety net spending. This will entail a gradual contraction of the HUS and, the expansion of the GMI, and the integration of some child benefits such as the single mother benefit into the GMI. Such integration of support is expected to improve targeting of social spending, reduce fiscal pressures, improve benefits for poor households, simplify the system, standardize rules, and discourage welfare dependency. The end-goal for the reform is to develop a system that supports more equitable distribution of welfare expenditures, with the GMI playing a central safety net role, and HUS playing a smaller complementary role to support energy affordability for most vulnerable groups.
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This Second Programmatic Public Finance Review (PFR-2) supports Ukraine in implementing its ongoing ambitious structural reform agenda to identify fiscal savings and to increase the effectiveness of public services.
... Exibir mais + Emerging from the severe economic crisis of 2014-2015, Ukraine managed to achieve significant fiscal consolidation. However, this was mostly driven by ad hoc measures rather than sustainable structural-fiscal reforms. Fiscal pressures – notably from public sector wages and social welfare spending, have therefore reemerged in the period from 2016 to 2018. General government expenditure is budgeted to increase from 40.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to 44.2 percent in 2018. Despite growing expenditures of an already large public sector, its performance remains poor, and Ukraine has initiated an ambitious reform agenda to address these challenges. This PFR aims to support Ukraine in implementing this ongoing reform program to increase the effectiveness of the public sector and to strengthen fiscal sustainability. The first pillar of this report identifies measures to contain wage bill pressures and make public services more efficient, with a focus on public administration and the education and health sectors. The second pillar of this report assesses the fiscal sustainability of the social protection system and identifies reforms to make expenditure more effective by focusing on social assistance and pensions. This report builds on the World Bank’s and other international partners’ ongoing engagement in Ukraine to support macro-fiscal stability. This PFR series aims to support Ukraine in safeguarding the fiscal sustainability that was restored after the deep economic crisis of 2014-2015. This was achieved in part through the Multisector and Financial Sector Development Policy Loans (DPLs) provided through the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and European Union (EU) budget assistance. The PFR-2 also builds on a previous analytical report prepared by the World Bank in Ukraine, the PFR-1 2017, which analyzed reform options in the areas of: (i) social assistance, (ii) pensions, (iii) health, (iv) education, and (v) tax policy and administration. The PFR-2 updates and extends this analysis after the significant legislative progress made by Ukraine in 2017. This report identifies measures to address the short-term pressures and proposes structural measures for ensuring a sustainable fiscal stance in the medium term.
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This note aims to provide guidance on how to assess the distributional implications of energy subsidy reform (ESR) using quantitative methods.It is intended for use by those familiar with the basics of welfare measurement, ideally part of a multi-disciplinary team.
... Exibir mais + Ideally this assessment would therefore be complemented by insights from qualitative analysis and by an analysis of the effectiveness of feasible compensatory measures. The note focuses on how to assess the distributional implications of household level impacts of ESR (as opposed to firm level, discussed in Good Practice Note 6). Its scope is confined to cases where ESRs lead to higher prices paid by energy consumers. As Good Practice Note 1 outlines, ESRs do not necessarily lead to higher prices, and could even decrease prices actually paid, such as when producer subsidies in the form of price support paid for by consumers are eliminated, or when consumer price subsidies lead to illegal diversion and out-smuggling, acute fuel shortages, and prices that are even higher than official prices on the black markets. The latter is particularly important, because a lack of data often forces the distributional analysis of ESRs to take observed expenditures on subsidized energy and scale them in proportion to the calculated price gaps—the gap between the unsubsidized price and the official price—to estimate the incidence of subsidies, whereas in practice consumers may be paying much higher prices than the official prices. Further, this note is not confined only to ESRs in that the distributional effects of higher prices of fuels used as feed stocks—such as natural gas used in fertilizer manufacturer—are also captured. In addition, while this note tries to present a general approach, practical pointers are provided that are relevant for the analysis of different types of energy, the prices of which are rising, and which are used either directly or in the production of goods and services widely in the economy. Overall, therefore, the note discusses the analysis of liquid fuels, gas, electricity and district heating (a source of heating used primarily in Eastern Europe). The word prices applies to all forms of energy, while tariffs applies to schedules of regulated prices that are applicable to regulated electricity, gas, or district heating. For households—the focus of this paper—two main channels of impacts can be identified, relating respectively to consumption patterns and income streams. goth consumption and income can be affected directly by higher prices for energy, or indirectly through other price changes triggered by the changes in energy prices (most notably through higher transport costs caused by rises in gasoline and diesel prices). These indirect effects, though harder to quantify than direct effects, can be significant for petroleum products.
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The World Bank Group (WBG) is strengthening its partnerships with upper-middle-income countries and high-income countries to leverage private and public finance, and to create knowledge and new solutions based on the experiences of graduates for the benefit of clients.
... Exibir mais + Malaysia is a leading contributor to a stronger ecosystem of new research and knowledge, through the embedding of the Malaysia Experience in global discussions on development. This digest is widely disseminated to development practitioners and policy-makers in the East Asia and Pacific region and internally within WBG. The authors begin this issue with their experience with the Hub as they enter their second year, and how it is a pioneering example of how the Bank is leveraging knowledge for development finance. Then, the authors move into an update on the Bank’s involvement in the concluded World Urban Forum 9 in Kuala Lumpur. The authors also delve into topics like Malaysia’s lessons from the Asian Financial Crisis. Other articles include South-South exchanges on Malaysia’s Small and medium enterprise (SME) development, education, land administration reform, and a rich selection of pieces from the Development economics teams based in the Hub.
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125247 APR 01, 2018
Alawode,Abayomi A.; Ouazad,Amine; Arshad,Ashraf Bin; Ruggeri Laderchi,Caterina; Sitorus,Djauhari; Georgieva,Dorina Peteva; Mendez Ramos,Fabian; Govindasamy,Jeevakumar; De Luna-Martínez,José; Kelm,Kathrine M.; Sondergaard,Lars M.; Tan,Mei Ling; Amin,Mohammad; Loayza,Norman V.; Canuto,Otaviano; Record,Richard James Lowden; Ranciere,Romain; Wahba,Sameh; Schmukler,Sergio L.; Bell,Simon; Shetty,Sudhir; Kwakwa,VictoriaDisclosed
Developing East Asia has led the way in showing how rapid and broadly shared growth can lift millions out of poverty. And, as this report shows, the region has achieved even more: the wave of prosperity across the region since the 1980s has lifted 3 out of 5 of its citizens into economic security, where their risk of falling into poverty is minimal.
... Exibir mais + Alongside this, a solid middle class has emerged in most countries. But these successes do not guarantee that inclusive growth--growth that reduces poverty and delivers upward mobility and economic security for all--is assured. The region has become more diverse, with progress varying across countries and extreme poverty increasingly concentrated among specific groups. Roughly a fifth of the region's population still remains at risk of falling into poverty and prospects for upward mobility are seen as increasingly elusive across the income distribution, reflecting a growing concentration of income and wealth and limited access to basic social services. Challenges old and new, including rapid aging and less certain growth prospects, are also increasing the premium on economic security for all. Riding the Wave is about how countries across the region can effectively confront these challenges and achieve inclusive growth.
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Addressing regional disparities is key to unlocking Russia’s potential to achieve stronger gains in growth and equity outcomes as well as to improve its institutional environment.
... Exibir mais + While spatial disparities have been an important policy concern in Russia for a long time, inequalities across its vast territory remain stark. This report explores the current state of regional disparities at the macro and micro-level, updating existing literature to reflect recent trends and providing new insights into household-level drivers of welfare. The report stresses that addressing spatial disparities does not necessary imply “balancing” growth across a geographic territory – but rather focusing on creating opportunities for all people, regardless of where they live.
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In 2011 the statistical authorities of Bosnia-Herzegovina collected for the first time a national survey which allows monitoring the European indicators of poverty and social exclusion as well as national indicators of absolute and relative consumption poverty.
... Exibir mais + The Extended Household Budget Survey (EHBS) adds extra modules to a standard Household Budget Surveys (HBS) designed to collect detailed information on household expenditures. The additional modules covered the information needed to measure poverty and social exclusion in EU Member states. In this way, the EHBS represents a hybrid solution between collecting a HBS and a Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC), the official tool for measuring poverty and social exclusion in the EU, which omits expenditure information. The note is structured as follows: section two presents a detailed description of the data, while section three discusses the three constituent indicators of AROPE, and their mutual relation, i.e. their union (the AROPE indicator) and their intersection. Section four presents additional dimensions of exclusion on which data have been collected, especially those relating to children. Section five presents a comparison of indicators of monetary poverty and social exclusion. Finally, section six summarizes the most interesting elements which have emerged from this analysis and concludes.
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Many Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries are faced with a difficult balancing act of cutting subsidies to the energy sector while protecting affordability for consumers.
... Exibir mais + This study assesses at the micro-level the distributional impact of raising energy prices to cost recovery levels, while recommending a transition to more effective social assistance measures and demand management interventions. Sheltering consumers from the high cost of energy through subsidies to the energy sector is becoming increasingly unaffordable for many countries in ECA. At a time when fiscal and environmental concerns are calling for increasing tariffs to cost-recovery levels, questions on energy affordability challenge the political feasibility of reforms. Governments are faced with a balancing act of cutting subsidies while protecting affordability. The report estimates that higher tariffs will increase household expenditures on energy by 14 percent for the EU member states, 13 percent for the Candidate and Potential Candidate (CPC) countries, and 28 percent for the EPOC countries. As a result, poverty could increase by 5-30 percent, while even larger shares of the population could face severe energy poverty.
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Informativo 83946 NOV 01, 2013
Ruggeri Laderchi,Caterina; Olivier,Anne; Trimble,Christopher Philip Inglês,
RussoDisclosed
Many Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries are faced with a difficult balancing act of cutting subsidies to the energy sector while protecting affordability for consumers.
... Exibir mais + This study assesses at the micro-level the distributional impact of raising energy prices to cost recovery levels, while recommending a transition to more effective social assistance measures and demand management interventions. Sheltering consumers from the high cost of energy through subsidies to the energy sector is becoming increasingly unaffordable for many countries in ECA. At a time when fiscal and environmental concerns are calling for increasing tariffs to cost-recovery levels, questions on energy affordability challenge the political feasibility of reforms. Governments are faced with a balancing act of cutting subsidies while protecting affordability. The report estimates that higher tariffs will increase household expenditures on energy by 14 percent for the EU member states, 13 percent for the Candidate and Potential Candidate (CPC) countries, and 28 percent for the EPOC countries. As a result, poverty could increase by 5-30 percent, while even larger shares of the population could face severe energy poverty.
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Informativo 83946 NOV 01, 2013
Ruggeri Laderchi,Caterina; Olivier,Anne; Trimble,Christopher Philip Inglês,
RussoDisclosed
Armenia's energy sector has achieved a level of electricity reliability, service quality and efficiency of sector operations that stands out among countries participating in Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
... Exibir mais + Much of this can be attributed to a decade of regulatory reform including a long-standing commitment to cost-recovery tariffs. The study is structured as follows: section one provides definitions of the key terms used and a background on the current tariff setting process in Armenia. Section two indicates how far tariffs have departed from cost-recovery levels and what costs have not been covered as a result. Section three describes how new investments will affect the average cost of service and the average residential tariff. Section four proposes a marginal cost-based tariff structure and explains why this differs from the current tariff structure. Section five discusses the poverty and social impact of tariff increases needed to cover new investments in 2021. Section six identifies options for subsidization and mitigating rate shock that will help transition to higher, marginal cost-based tariffs. Finally, section seven summarizes conclusions and recommendations of the analysis.
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The cost of energy in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, as elsewhere, is an important policy issue, as shown by the concerns for energy affordability during the past harsh winter.
... Exibir mais + Governments try to moderate the burden of energy expenditures that is experienced by households through subsidies to the energy providers, so that households pay tariffs below the cost recovery level for the energy they use. Balancing competing claims- fiscal and environmental concerns which will push for raising energy tariffs on the one hand and affordability and political economy concerns which push for keeping tariffs artificially low on the other is a task that policy makers in the region are increasingly unable to put off. While challenging, the reforms needed for this balancing act can build on much that has been learned in the last decade about improving the effectiveness of social assistance systems and increasing energy efficiency. This is the first report to assess, at the micro level for the whole region, the distributional impact of raising energy tariffs to cost recovery levels and to simulate policy options to cushion these impacts. The analysis relies on a unique database of standardized household surveys that covers the majority of countries in the region. This report adopts broad country groupings to identify commonalities across sub regions. This report focuses on two main sources of energy used by households: electricity and gas.
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In 2011 the statistical authorities of Bosnia-Herzegovina collected for the first time a national survey which allows monitoring the European indicators of poverty and social exclusion as well as national indicators of absolute and relative consumption poverty.
... Exibir mais + The Extended Household Budget Survey (EHBS) adds extra modules to a standard Household Budget Surveys (HBS) designed to collect detailed information on household expenditures. The additional modules covered the information needed to measure poverty and social exclusion in EU Member states. In this way, the EHBS represents a hybrid solution between collecting a HBS and a Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC), the official tool for measuring poverty and social exclusion in the EU, which omits expenditure information. The note is structured as follows: section two presents a detailed description of the data, while section three discusses the three constituent indicators of AROPE, and their mutual relation, i.e. their union (the AROPE indicator) and their intersection. Section four presents additional dimensions of exclusion on which data have been collected, especially those relating to children. Section five presents a comparison of indicators of monetary poverty and social exclusion. Finally, section six summarizes the most interesting elements which have emerged from this analysis and concludes.
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The Addis Ababa Integrated Housing Development Program aims to tackle the housing shortage and unemployment that prevail in Addis Ababa by deploying and supporting small and medium scale enterprises to construct low-cost housing using technologies novel for Ethiopia.
... Exibir mais + The motivation for such support is predicated on the view that small firms create more jobs per unit of investment by virtue of being more labor intensive and that the jobs so created are concentrated among the low-skilled and hence the poor. To assess whether the program has succeeded in biasing technology adoption in favor of labor and thereby contributed to poverty reduction, the impact of the program on technology usage, labor intensity, and earnings is investigated using a unique matched workers-firms dataset, the Addis Ababa Construction Enterprise Survey. The data are representative of all registered construction firms in Addis and were collected specifically for the purpose of analyzing the impact of the program. The authors find that program firms do not adopt different technologies and are not more labor intensive than non-program firms. There is an earnings premium for program participants, who tend to be relatively well-educated, which is heterogeneous and highest for those at the bottom of the earnings distribution.
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Documento de trabalho sobre pesquisa de políticas WPS4629 MAY 01, 2008
With three quarters of its population living in cities, Latin America is now essentially an urban region. Higher urbanization is usually associated with a number of positives, such as higher income, greater access to services, and lower poverty incidence, and, Latin America is no exception.
... Exibir mais + Today, urban poverty incidence, at 28 percent, is half that of in rural areas; extreme poverty, at 12 percent, is a third. Despite this relatively low poverty incidence, the absolute number of poor people is high, and most studies agree that about half of Latin America's poor live in urban areas. The Bank's own estimates suggest that 60 percent of the poor (113 million people) and half the extreme poor (46 million individuals) live in urban areas. The report reviews what is specifically urban about poor people living in cities, which reveals a number of facts, critical to understanding the challenges facing the urban poor, and the means to address these challenges. Three preconceived ideas are discussed, that tend to cloud judgment about urban poverty. All three spring from the common misperception that urban statistics are representative of the urban poor. However, the relatively low incidence of poverty in cities, combined with Latin America's high inequality, imply urban statistics are almost never representative of the urban poor. Concerning the differences between urban and rural poor, the need for differentiated strategies to tackle urban as opposed to rural poverty is implied, and, the first and most important differential is the greater integration of the urban poor into the market economy. Second, while urban areas are not systematically unequal than rural areas - it depends on the country, and, within countries, on the city - they are much more heterogeneous socio-economically, or with respect to economic activities and processes. Third, heterogeneity notwithstanding, Latin American cities tend to be highly segregated. As a result, social exclusion coexists with (relative) physical proximity to wealth, services and opportunities. This gives rise to negative externalities, or neighborhood effects that result in a lower ability to access jobs, lower earnings, and lower educational achievements. Fourth, social networks are less stable in urban areas, with relationships based more on the quality of reciprocal links between individuals and friends, than on familial obligations. Fifth, urban living also means much greater exposure to organized crime, drugs and gang violence. This is true for the population as a whole, but it has particularly dismal implications for the poor living in the slums of Latin America's large cities, where drug-traffic is now pervasive. Finally, another important characteristic of urban poverty has to do with overwhelmed, rather than absent services. The underlying hypothesis of this report is that, indeed, the causes of poverty, the nature of deprivation, and the policy levers to fight poverty are, to a large extent, site specific.
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