Growth moderated in Q1 2019, owing to weaker investment growth and inventory drawdowns.Domestically, an easing of export growth, together with a decline in investment, has resulted in Malaysia's economic growth becoming more dependent on consumption.
... Exibir mais + In 2019, Malaysia's economy is expected to expand at a relatively moderate rate, with risks tilted towards the downside. The GDP growth rate is projected to reach 4.6 percent in 2019, 0.1 percentage points lower than in the previous forecast, reflecting weaker-than-expected investment and export activity observed in Q1 2019. Potential risks to growth include those related to escalating trade tensions, a sharper than-expected slowdown in major economies, as well as volatility in financial and commodity markets. Relatively high levels of private and public debt also pose risks to growth. In the short term, policies should focus on boosting resilience and protecting the vulnerable. In an environment of growing uncertainty, it is particularly important to rebuild fiscal policy buffers, to facilitate private investment, and to ensure adequate social protection for low-income and vulnerable households. In the medium term, bold reforms will be needed to boost human capital and to raise productivity. As Malaysia proceeds on its transition to a high-income and developed economy, incremental growth in incomes will be increasingly dependent on improvements in human capital and productivity. In turn, this will require a multi-year reform agenda to improve the quality of workforce skills and learning outcomes from the education system. The Malaysia Economic Monitor (MEM) consists of two parts. Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses on a selected special topic that is key to Malaysia's medium-term development prospects and the achievement of shared prosperity. In this edition, the focus of the special topic is on re-energizing the public service to better enable it to facilitate Malaysia's future development.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 138390 JUN 01, 2019
Record,Richard James Lowden; Chong,Yew Keat; Teh Sharifuddin,Shakira Binti; Bajpai,Rajni; Govindasamy,JeevakumarDisclosed
Growing risks weigh on the economic outlook. On the external front, a slowing global economy, rising concerns regarding the impact of US-China trade tensions and increased volatility in financial and commodity markets all weigh on the prospects for Malaysia’s economy.
... Exibir mais + On the domestic side, increased reliance on oil-related revenue amid heightened uncertainty around the commodity price forecasts and relatively high levels of private and public debt pose risks to growth. Efforts to sustain growth in the near term have to be carefully balanced with the need to restore fiscal buffers. In the short term, fiscal consolidation efforts are expected to be driven primarily by measures to reduce expenditure. However, efforts to broaden the tax base, to diversify revenues away from unstable oil and gas revenues, and to introduce greater progressivity, will require a multi-year reform agenda. Restoring fiscal buffers will be necessary to ensure that Malaysia is better prepared to respond to future macroeconomic shocks. The Mid-term Review of the 11th Malaysia Plan and the 2019 budget outline the Pakatan Harapan government’s new priorities, with an emphasis on strengthening governance and improving accountability. The government has also expressed a commitment to reform the role of the state in business to level the playing field and to unlock future productivity growth. Reforms to increase the effectiveness of pro-inclusion expenditure programs have the potential to achieve greater impact with lesser public resources. The Malaysia Economic Monitor consists of two parts. In this edition, the focus of the special topic is on realizing human potential. Accelerating human capital development will be critical for enabling Malaysia’s successful transition to a high-income and developed nation. With the advent of digital and other disruptive technologies, there has been a significant changein the nature of jobs, with an increasing premium on higher-order cognitive skills, such as complex problem solving, socio-behavioral skills, reasoning and self-efficacy. Building these skills requires a transformation in the way that Malaysia nurtures, invests and protectsits human capital. According to the World Bank’s new Human Capital Index, Malaysia ranks 55th out of 157 countries. While Malaysia performs well in some components of the index, it does less well in others. To fully realize its human potential, Malaysia will need to make further advances in education, health and nutrition, and social protection outcomes. Key priority areas include enhancing the quality of schooling to improve learning outcomes, rethinking nutritional interventions to reduce childhood stunting, and providing adequate social welfare systems to enable households to invest in human capital formation.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 132903 DEC 13, 2018
Record,Richard James Lowden; Chong,Yew Keat; Teh Sharifuddin,Shakira Binti; Aturupane,Harsha; Teo,Hui Sin; Schmillen,Achim Daniel; Moroz,Harry EdmundDisclosed
The historic outcome of Malaysia's recent elections provides an unprecedented opportunity for change. The country's 14th General Elections which took place on May 9, 2018, in the context of widespread citizen concern regarding the degree to which the proceeds of economic growth have been shared across the Malaysian society and a call for increased government accountability, have resulted in the nation's first change in government since its independence in 1957.
... Exibir mais + The new government's emerging economic policy framework is strongly guided by its election manifesto Buku Harapan, which responds to these popular sentiments. Heightened uncertainty amid the political transition exacerbated the ongoing turbulence in the financial markets arising from external factors. In the period between the elections and end-May, Malaysia's 5- and 10-year sovereign spreads against US Treasuries increased by 24 and 27 basis points respectively, while the stock market fell by three percent. Meanwhile, RM19 billion of foreign capital was withdrawn from the domestic financial markets in May as post-election market turbulence coincided with heightened investor uncertainty about the emerging markets asset class. However, since then volatility in the financial markets has been largely driven by external factors amid increased global trade tensions, as the uncertainty surrounding the political transition has gradually reduced.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 127679 JUN 01, 2018
Record,Richard James Lowden; Chong,Yew Keat; Teh Sharifuddin,Shakira BintiDisclosed
This Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. The aim of the publication is to foster better-informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavor to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
... Exibir mais + The MEM consists of two parts: Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses on a special selected topic relevant to Malawi’s development prospects. In this edition, the special topic focuses on Social Safety Nets. Safety nets are playing an increasing role in promoting equity, strengthening resilience, and improving long-term human capital outcomes. There is now robust evidence to demonstrate that social safety nets can be an efficient means to break the cycle of poverty and vulnerability in Malawi. The key messages of this edition of the MEM are about economic recovery and cautious optimism.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 126663 MAY 01, 2018
In this edition of the Malaysia Economic Monitor, the focus of the special topic is macro-financial policy. This year marks 20 years since the onset of the Asian financial crisis (AFC), which caused a major shock to Malaysia's economy.
... Exibir mais + At the time, Malaysia's policy response was considered unorthodox. This response included the imposition of selective capital controls, counter-cyclical fiscal policies as well as bank and corporate restructuring. Yet with the passage of time, many of these policies have become part of the standard toolkit for policymakers in both developing and developed economies when faced with a crisis. Malaysia's experience, both during the crisis and in the years since, offers important insights for other countries. While sharing a common destination, not all East Asian countries took the same path towards a more resilient set of macro-financial policies. Clearly not all of Malaysia's experience is likely to be transferable to the specific contexts of other countries, but there are useful lessons for other highly open trading economies that are exposed to the risks associated with international capital flows.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 122007 DEC 01, 2017
Record,Richard James Lowden; Ping,Alan Lau Sie; Zaourak,Gabriel Roberto; Chong,Yew Keat; Zhang,Wei - GFM08Disclosed
The Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. The aim of the publication is to foster better-informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavor to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth.
... Exibir mais + Malawi’s economy is primarily based on agriculture and heavily reliant on its land resources to achieve social and economic development. The recently promulgated land acts have the potential to create multiple economic and social benefits for Malawi's citizens by improving investor confidence in the business environment, reducing the cost of documenting rights, supporting decentralization, improving land use planning, and protecting vulnerable groups’ land rights and livelihoods. The effective implementation of these critical land reforms will ultimately facilitate the attainment of inclusive growth, boost productivity, and generate additional revenue for the government. The MEM consists of two parts: part one presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part two focuses on a special selected topic relevant to Malawi’s development prospects.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 121419 NOV 01, 2017
Kandoole,Priscilla Flaness; Record,Richard James Lowden; Deininger,Klaus W.; Stylianou,Eleni; Kalemba,Sunganani VioletDisclosed
The Iran Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context, and assesses their implications for the outlook for the country.
... Exibir mais + Its coverage has ranged from the macroeconomy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Iran.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 117165 JUN 30, 2017
The Iran Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context, and assesses their implications for the outlook for the country.
... Exibir mais + Its coverage has ranged from the macroeconomy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Iran.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 117165 JUN 30, 2017
Malaysia’s economic growth expanded strongly in first quarter (1Q) 2017. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for 2017 is expected to accelerate to 4.9 percent, slightly above the government’s current projection range of 4.3 to 4.8 percent.
... Exibir mais + The current account surplus has declined (1Q 2017: 1.6 percent of GDP; 4Q 2016: 3.8 percent of GDP) due to strong import growth. Gross imports growth, mainly of capital and intermediate goods, outpaced the significant increase in gross exports, resulting in a lower goods surplus. The current account surplus is projected to narrow further to 1.6 percent of GDP in 2017. Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative and supportive for growth. The higher growth trajectory projected for 2017 opens up room to accelerate reduction in the fiscal deficit. Risks to the economy in the short-term stem mainly from external developments. Focus on implementing further structural reforms to raise the level of potential growth should continue. This include looking into measures to raise the level of productivity, encourage innovation, invest in new skills, leverage digital technologies, and continue ongoing efforts to improve efficiency of public service delivery.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 116032 JUN 01, 2017
The Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. This edition of the MEM was published in May 2017.
... Exibir mais + It follows on from the four previous editions of the MEM, and is part of an ongoing series, with future editions to follow twice per year. The aim of the publication is to foster better-informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavors to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive and sustainable economic growth. The MEM consists of two parts: Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi's development prospects.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 115253 MAY 25, 2017
Record,Richard James Lowden; Kandoole,Priscilla Flaness; Choi,Narae; Stylianou,Eleni; Kalemba,Sunganani Violet InglêsDisclosed
The MEM is the World Bank's biannual flagship publication on Malaysia. It provides analysis of recent economic developments and the near-term outlook for Malaysia.
... Exibir mais + Each publication also focuses on a special topic related to Malaysia's transformation into a high-income economy. Malaysia is at the forefront of a "new generation" of trade agreements that will shape trade and investment over the next decade. The 14th MEM focuses on how Malaysia can use trade agreements to bring new opportunities to the Malaysian economy and accelerate its transition to high income status.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 106711 JUN 01, 2016
This report consists of two parts: Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi's development prospects.
... Exibir mais + This report focuses on agricultural risk management. Malawi is now set to suffer a second year of poor harvests due to the effects of a drought that is sweeping Southern Africa. This drought has had a serious impact both on the economy and on food security, requiring a major humanitarian response. The current situation underscores Malawi's serious need to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector and to develop a better system of risk management. With the country expected to continue to face climate-induced shocks into the future, it is vital that the Government considers how best to mitigate the impact of such shocks. In 2015 Malawi recorded a GDP growth rate of just 2.8 percent, with this low rate the result of both adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic instability. Flooding in southern districts followed by a countrywide drought resulted in a contraction in agricultural production. Maize, the key crop in terms of food security, recorded a 30.2 percent year-on-year drop in production. As a result, an estimated 2.8 million people (17 percent of the population) were unable to meet their 2015/16 food requirements.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 106501 MAY 01, 2016
Record,Richard James Lowden; Kandoole,Priscilla Flaness; Hoglund Giertz,Asa Margareta G.Disclosed
After two years of strong economic growth and macroeconomic stability, Myanmar faced a more difficult economic environment in 2015-2016. In 2015-2016, economic growth in Myanmar eased to 7 percent amid a supply shock from heavy flooding, a slowdown in new investment flows during an election year, and a more challenging external environment including lower commodity prices affecting Myanmar’s main exports.
... Exibir mais + The May 2016 edition of the MEM takes stock of recent economic developments, policy challenges, economic prospects, and upcoming policy priorities. Economic growth in 2016-2017 is expected to pick up, with a premium on sound macroeconomic policies and continued structural reforms.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 105944 MAY 01, 2016
This Policy Note was produced by the World Bank to inform policy debate in Croatia. The country returned to positive growth in 2015 after more than half a decade of recession, but the structural weaknesses exposed by the financial crisis have yet to be fully addressed.
... Exibir mais + Croatia’s prospects for reinvigorating inclusive growth are limited without further reforms to restore macroeconomic stability, boost productivity, invest in people and modernize public services. This note explores policy areas to support the objective of restoring macroeconomic stability, competitiveness and inclusion. The key findings were as follows: (i) central challenge will be to reduce the wage bill to a sustainable level while continuing to deliver public services; (ii) tax administration could be more efficient and user friendly through ongoing efforts to improve IT systems, consolidate the reorganized administrative structures and upgrade staff skills; (iii) despite progress in recent years, inefficiencies and the unpredictability of the courts is one of the largest barriers to business, investment and growth; (iv) the transport sector lacks effective multi-modal planning, which takes account of available financial resources and implementation capacity; (v) Croatia’s main challenge in the coming decade is to improve health outcomes for all, while containing upward pressures on health spending driven by an aging population and new technologies; and (vi) to improve its ability to tackle poverty, and to do so in a more cost-effective way, Croatia needs to consolidate its social benefit programs and increase the share of spending on poverty-focused programs, including through a broader use of means-testing mechanism. More broadly, the World Bank stands ready to support Croatia in strengthening its social welfare system through a range of types of support including via (i) ex-ante evaluation of social protection reforms in pensions, active aging, employment policies; social welfare and social services; (ii) implementation support for such reforms; and (iii) assessments of the quality of implementation processes, their success in reaching the poor, their impact on the welfare outcomes of their beneficiaries and the cost-benefit ratio of these programs.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 103938 FEB 01, 2016
This Policy Note was produced by the World Bank to inform policy debate in Croatia. The country returned to positive growth in 2015 after more than half a decade of recession, but the structural weaknesses exposed by the financial crisis have yet to be fully addressed.
... Exibir mais + Croatia’s prospects for reinvigorating inclusive growth are limited without further reforms to restore macroeconomic stability, boost productivity, invest in people and modernize public services. This note explores policy areas to support the objective of restoring macroeconomic stability, competitiveness and inclusion. The key findings were as follows: (i) central challenge will be to reduce the wage bill to a sustainable level while continuing to deliver public services; (ii) tax administration could be more efficient and user friendly through ongoing efforts to improve IT systems, consolidate the reorganized administrative structures and upgrade staff skills; (iii) despite progress in recent years, inefficiencies and the unpredictability of the courts is one of the largest barriers to business, investment and growth; (iv) the transport sector lacks effective multi-modal planning, which takes account of available financial resources and implementation capacity; (v) Croatia’s main challenge in the coming decade is to improve health outcomes for all, while containing upward pressures on health spending driven by an aging population and new technologies; and (vi) to improve its ability to tackle poverty, and to do so in a more cost-effective way, Croatia needs to consolidate its social benefit programs and increase the share of spending on poverty-focused programs, including through a broader use of means-testing mechanism. More broadly, the World Bank stands ready to support Croatia in strengthening its social welfare system through a range of types of support including via (i) ex-ante evaluation of social protection reforms in pensions, active aging, employment policies; social welfare and social services; (ii) implementation support for such reforms; and (iii) assessments of the quality of implementation processes, their success in reaching the poor, their impact on the welfare outcomes of their beneficiaries and the cost-benefit ratio of these programs.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 103938 FEB 01, 2016
The Myanmar Economic Monitor (MEM) aims to periodically take stock of economic development and highlight economic prospects and policy priorities in Myanmar.
... Exibir mais + Myanmar grew at an estimated 8.5 percent in real terms in 2014/15. The MEM touches on continued recovery in growth, public consumption, private investment, services, investment in manufacturing and industry, rebound in agriculture and the impact of floods. The monitor examines foreign trade and investment; the inflation, monetary and exchange rates; fiscal policy; and Myanmar’s economic outlook. The Policy Watch section covers a few selected priority issues closely related to Myanmar’s overall economic developments and outlook.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 99930 OCT 05, 2015
The Malawi economic monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. The aim of the publication is to foster better informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavors to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth.
... Exibir mais + The focus of the special topic is on the effectiveness of public spending on primary education and the means by which this can be improved. With more than half of Malawi’s population under the age of 18, the country faces significant challenges in its efforts to provide quality education to a growing population of students. Malawi also faces ongoing fiscal pressures, so there is a need to find ways to maximize the development impact within the limits of the finite resources available for investment in education. The MEM consists of two parts: part one presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part two focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi’s development prospects.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 100316 OCT 01, 2015
Record,Richard James Lowden; Kandoole,Priscilla Flaness; Asim,SalmanDisclosed
Based on preliminary estimates, the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) economy grew by 7.5 percent in 2014, compared to an average of 8 percent over 2011-13.
... Exibir mais + Looking forward, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow further in 2015 before accelerating in the medium term. Average annual inflation in 2014 decelerated to 4.2 percent from 6.4 percent a year earlier, driven primarily by slower growth in food prices and a decline in fuel prices. In response to a widened fiscal deficit in FY2012-13, the government embarked on much needed fiscal corrective measures in FY2013-14 and FY2014-15. Foreign exchange reserves coverage remains low as compared with prudential benchmarks. While the nominal exchange rate remained relatively stable within the band set by the Bank of Laos (BOL), the real exchange rate continued to appreciate. Indications in 2014 are that bank credit growth is slowing down sharply compared to its previous rapid pace over several years. In order to grasp new opportunities and enjoy the benefits of regional integration, it is necessary for Lao PDR to take steps to create a conducive business environment. In order to achieve broad-based, inclusive growth and poverty reduction in Lao PDR, channeling greater resources toward tackling key workforce skills and productivity challenges is of significant importance.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 95669 APR 01, 2015
The Pakistani economy faced four major domestic shocks as of April 2015: (i) a political sit-in by opposition parties in Islamabad that lasted between August and December and raised significant political uncertainty; (ii) the September floods in Punjab that affected agricultural crops; (iii) the postponed sale of Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) equity shares in November that reduced its expected privatization proceeds and foreign direct inflows (FDI); and (iv) the terrorist attack in a school in Peshawar that heightened security concerns.
... Exibir mais + However, supported by a favorable slump in international oil prices, and steady implementation of structural reforms by the government, the economy is improving. Preliminary data for the first half of FY15 show growth picking up, driven mainly by strong performance in the agriculture and services sectors. Despite the floods last year, growth improved in the cotton, wheat, and rice crops. The services sector was boosted by transport, storage, communications, finance, and insurance. On the demand side, growth continues to be driven by private consumption partly fuelled by high remittance inflows. Credit to the private sector continued to grow, but slightly less rapidly than last year: as a percentage of GDP, it fell to 13.4 percent in January 2015 compared with 14.1 percent in January 2014. Pakistan is on track to meet a fiscal deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP in FY15. The newly elected government appears to be committed to fiscal discipline and has made fiscal consolidation the cornerstone of its economic program supported by the IMF, the World Bank and other donors. At present, Pakistan is facing three sources of risk: first is the prospect of an early reversal of the fall in oil prices. Second is the repeat of political events of the first half that keep FDI flows and private investment low; and also affects foreign reserves, privatization program and growth prospects. An uncertain political environment undermines investor confidence and depresses economic activity. Third is the continuation of a troubled domestic energy sector that continues to endure a long-due complex inheritance on its circular debt. Given past trends and the current growth rate, poverty is expected to continue to fall and shared prosperity to improve in this and the next fiscal year. However, a large mass of the population is clustered around the official poverty line, so that small improvements in household real consumption can translate into substantial movement in poverty in either direction.
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Atualizações e modelagem econômicas 95751 APR 01, 2015
Refaqat, Saadia; Lopez-Calix, Jose R.; Waheed, Muhammad; Ashraf, Mehwish; Atiq, Syedah Moshina; Joya, Mohammad Omar; Shaikh Sarmad; Khan, Rafay; Newhouse, David LockeDisclosed
