Oil prices rose from 2004 to historic highs in mid-2008, only to fall precipitously in the last four months of 2008 and lose all the gains of the preceding four and a half years.
... Exibir mais + The steep price increase from January 2007 to July 2008 was challenging for all economies. While the sharp drop in prices since August 2008 has been welcome news for consumers, the cause of it, the global financial crisis, is not. Moreover, currency depreciation against the dollar in many developing countries has meant that, in local currency units, petroleum product prices have not fallen as sharply as in U.S. dollars. This report examines the policy responses of 49 developing country governments to world oil price movements in the last three years. The sample includes 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 15 in Asia, 10 in Latin America, and 8 in the Middle East and North Africa. The report updates a companion 2006 publication on coping with higher oil prices and builds upon two other publications: one on oil price volatility and another on the degree of pass-through of world oil price increases between January 2004 and August 2009. As with all other publications in this series, this report examines issues related to oil price levels and volatility in the downstream petroleum sector and other sectors where oil is an important input, such as transport, fisheries, and agriculture, from the point of view of consumers. It does not consider macro-level policies (such as monetary or exchange rate policy) or the impact of oil price changes on the macroeconomic performance of countries, nor does it discuss management of the windfall income by large oil exporters and the long-term economic consequences of revenue management.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 51116 JUL 01, 2009
This paper applies a decomposition technique using a log mean Divisia index to two sets of household surveys taken several years apart in Indonesia and Pakistan.
... Exibir mais + The methodology enables separation of changes in expenditure on different types of energy into changes in prices, quantities, the share of households using the given form of energy, and total household income. The technique was applied to electricity, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, and gasoline in Indonesia, and to natural gas, kerosene, LPG, purchased firewood, collected firewood, dung cake, and other forms of biomass in Pakistan. The methods of analysis presented in this paper could be extended to other commodities or to changes in energy use patterns over longer periods of time, where suitable household expenditure surveys are available. In particular, when household surveys covering the period of high oil prices become available, the analysis of changing household patterns of fuel use will be valuable. The availability of evidence on the use of energy by various household groups will be important for considerations of providing targeted support to low-income households at times of unexpected shocks to energy prices.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 49968 JUN 01, 2009
This paper presents retail prices of the petroleum products in August 2008 in up to 56 countries, and examines the degree of pass through to consumers of increases in world gasoline and diesel prices since January 2004 in 48 countries.
... Exibir mais + This is the second paper in a series summarizing work undertaken to assess the implications of higher oil prices on fuel use, the downstream petroleum sector, and household fuel consumption in the developing world. It follows a recent publication on a decomposition analysis of vulnerability to oil price increases, where vulnerability is defined as the percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) spent on net imports of crude oil and petroleum products (Bacon and Kojima 2008). This paper focuses on the extent to which international petroleum product price increases have been passed on to consumers.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 48423 FEB 01, 2009
This paper examines the levels of and changes in vulnerability to oil price increases between 1996 and 2006 in 161 countries for which data are available.
... Exibir mais + Vulnerability defined here as the ratio of the value of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP) rises if oil consumption increases and oil production decreases per unit of GDP. By comparing the level of vulnerability of different economies at a point in time, those that are particularly vulnerable to oil price increases can be highlighted. This enables consideration of the factors (variables) that help determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Over time economies change in ways that may make them more vulnerable to oil price increases or less so, and the change in vulnerability will be related to changes in the underlying variables. The analysis this paper uses is a starting point for linking these factors. The study also examined changes in vulnerability by subdividing the period under review into two sub-periods, 1996-2001 and 2001-6. The oil price increase during the first sub-period was small, and correspondingly the change in vulnerability was also limited. The change in vulnerability was greater during the second sub-period, which saw a 2.5-fold price increase in nominal U.S. dollars. This paper highlights the role of changes in the oil share of energy and of energy intensity, both of which can be influenced by government policies, and also by oil production, which, even though it is largely a function of geology, can also be affected by a country's upstream fiscal, contractual, and regulatory frameworks.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 48422 AUG 01, 2008
Oil prices more than tripled between January 2004 and March 2008. The effects can be hard on countries with large net oil imports relative to income.
... Exibir mais + This note sets out a measure of vulnerability to oil price shocks and breaks it down into its components. That allows cross-country benchmarking and helps to show how changes in such factors as energy efficiency and the real exchange rate can make countries more vulnerable or less so.
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