Poland is aging. In another three decades, more than half of the country's population will be over50.7 years old, 10.4 years more than the current median age of 40.3 years.
... Exibir mais + The share ofindividuals 65 years and older will rise to 33 percent, up from 17 percent today. The mostsubstantial relative change in the share will take place in the oldest-old age group (80 ), whichwill triple. Poland records one death every 1 minute and one birth every 2 minutes, and withfewer children being born every year, the country's population will eventually shrink to 34.4million by 2050, 4 million lesser than the current level of 38.4 million. Poland is not alone in this respect: in recent decades, the combination of low fertility and longer life expectancy, among other factors, has led to an increased proportion of older people in all EU member states. Since 2000, fertility rates have slightly increased in several European countries, but they are expected to remain close to, or below, 2.1 children per woman, the rate needed for long-term replacement of the population (Kohler and Ortega 2003). Throughout Europe, mortality among older people has fallen substantially since the 1970s (Christensen et al. 2009), largely as a result of falling mortality from cardiovascular disease (Glei and Meslé 2010), which can be attributed to a combination of improved lifestyles, prevention, and treatment (Laatikainen 2005). Indeed, the fall in mortality among older people is now the main contributor to population aging, though other elements of population dynamics, such as migration and fluctuating birth rates, are also noteworthy in the discussion of aging populations.
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Poland is aging. In another three decades, more than half of the country's population will be over50.7 years old, 10.4 years more than the current median age of 40.3 years.
... Exibir mais + The share ofindividuals 65 years and older will rise to 33 percent, up from 17 percent today. The mostsubstantial relative change in the share will take place in the oldest-old age group (80 ), whichwill triple. Poland records one death every 1 minute and one birth every 2 minutes, and withfewer children being born every year, the country's population will eventually shrink to 34.4million by 2050, 4 million lesser than the current level of 38.4 million. Poland is not alone in this respect: in recent decades, the combination of low fertility and longer life expectancy, among other factors, has led to an increased proportion of older people in all EU member states. Since 2000, fertility rates have slightly increased in several European countries, but they are expected to remain close to, or below, 2.1 children per woman, the rate needed for long-term replacement of the population (Kohler and Ortega 2003). Throughout Europe, mortality among older people has fallen substantially since the 1970s (Christensen et al. 2009), largely as a result of falling mortality from cardiovascular disease (Glei and Meslé 2010), which can be attributed to a combination of improved lifestyles, prevention, and treatment (Laatikainen 2005). Indeed, the fall in mortality among older people is now the main contributor to population aging, though other elements of population dynamics, such as migration and fluctuating birth rates, are also noteworthy in the discussion of aging populations.
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Population aging – resulting from falling fertility rates, declining mortality, and increased longevity – shapes the profile and the needs of an increasing number of countries.
... Exibir mais + How effective has the World Bank been in tailoring its toolkit to provide an adequate response? This proposed evaluation is the first at IEG to assess the World Bank contribution to diagnosing client countries’ demographic issues related to population aging; understanding the variance in policy needs and context specificities; and providing vision, tools, and resources to respond to challenges in countries at different stages of aging.
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Gender equality is a key pathway to ensuring lasting poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Identifying the main gender gaps that a country faces, across different domains, better informs policy design.
... Exibir mais + To that effect, this report seeks to identify where progress has been achieved in increasing opportunities and outcomes for women and men in Mexico and where further policy action is required. It focuses on three areas that are critical for gender-equal access to opportunities: (a) endowments, such as health and education; (b) economic opportunities, such as access to labor, land, and financial markets; and (c) agency, including norms, representation, and freedom from violence (World Bank 2012). The report takes advantage of the existing literature as well as different sources of publicly available data for the country and aims to provide a panorama of the prevailing gender gaps and areas for work to close those gaps, covering a wide range of outcomes. As such, it seeks to serve as a guiding document for policy action and dialogue, further research, and public discussion. With respect to health, three issues stand out. First, teenage pregnancy is very high relative to Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and is especially frequent among poor, low-educated, and indigenous girls. Second, although maternal mortality rates have declined, they are still very high in some regions and among vulnerable population groups, including rural and indigenous women. Finally, the incidence of obesity is among the highest in the world, which is linked to high incidence of diabetes and diabetes-related deaths, particularly among women. When it comes to education, gender gaps in enrollment and attainment are still a concern in lagging regions, where women face an especially large risk of dropping out, largely because of teenage pregnancy. Tertiary education, although more common now than ever before, is still far from being available to all women. Moreover, Mexico is among the lowest-ranking performers in international standardized tests among OECD countries, with girls underperforming more than boys, especially beginning in upper-secondary school. Differences in learning are reflected in educational choices, as women and men are still segregated across fields of education and areas of specialization. Beyond human capital endowments, it is difficult to imagine that women can thrive without access to productive inputs, including physical and financial assets, particularly if they are the sole breadwinners. In 2018, 65 percent of women did not own a high-value asset.
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Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes have been successfully implemented since the mid-1990s in a number of European countries.
... Exibir mais + The NDC approach features the lifelong contribution–benefit link of a financial defined contribution scheme, but is based on the pay-as-you-go format. An NDC approach implemented by the rulebook can manage the economic and demographic risks inherent to a pension scheme and by design creates financial sustainability. This paper offers a nontechnical introduction to NDC schemes, their basic elements and advantages over nonfinancial defined benefit schemes, the key technical frontiers of the approach, and the experiences of countries with NDC schemes.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136555 APR 01, 2019
The main goals of reforming the Norwegian old-age pension system toward nonfinancial defined contributions (NDC) in 2011 were to improve long-run fiscal sustainability and labor supply incentives.
... Exibir mais + Maintaining much of the redistributive effects of the former public pension system was also an important concern. Econometric analyses reveal the 2011 reform’s significant effects on postponing retirement. Results from a dynamic microsimulation model show that the reform is expected to have substantial effects on old-age pension expenditures in the long run without any large negative distributional effects. Macroeconomic analyses indicate that the reform is likely to make a great fiscal impact in the long run, and higher employment plays an important role in this aspect.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136552 APR 01, 2019
Stølen, Nils Martin; Fredriksen, Dennis; Hernæs, Erik; Holmøy, ErlingDisclosed
Starting from a reconstruction of the political context in which the Italian 1995 pension reform took shape, this paper reviews the essential features of the 1995 and post-1995 legislation and assesses its fundamental shortcomings.
... Exibir mais + A straightforward theoretical discussion highlights both the targets and the instruments representing the hallmark of the nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) model. The contrast of such theoretical premises with the Italian legislation points out the persistent original mistakes together with the necessary remedies.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136548 APR 01, 2019
It is desirable that pension reforms and legislated rules have the backing of thepopulation or at least are accepted by voters. With the objective of achieving “acceptance,”the Swedish Pensions Agency publishes an annual actuarial balance of the solvency of the whole public pension system and distributes to each participant information on his or her individual accumulated notional balance and funded accounts, movements during the year,and estimates of the projected individual future pension amount.
... Exibir mais + This paper describes the Swedish pension experience in communication with pension participants over the last decade, together with the main changes in information delivered to improve individuals’ pension knowledge and help them make more informed, better decisions on work, savings,and retirement.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136553 APR 01, 2019
Boado-Penas,María del Carmen; Settergren,Ole; Ekheden,Erland; Naka,PoontavikaDisclosed
This paper defines a universal public pension scheme (UPPS) as a government mandated lifecycle longevity insurance scheme that transfers individual consumption from the working years to retirement.
... Exibir mais + It discusses the differences in four UPPS designs designated as either defined contribution (DC) or defined benefit (DB), and financial or nonfinancial. With individual DC accounts, the ball is in the individual’s court. The transparent link between contributions and retirement income is the enabler of efficiency that through marginal decisions to choose formal work over informal work or leisure and to postpone retirement marginally toward the end of the working life, supports affordability and sustainability for a chosen level of adequacy. Hence, UPPS-DC designs are found superior to UPPS-DB designs.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136551 APR 01, 2019
This paper discusses the potential expansion of the role of the notional defined contribution (NDC) paradigm in the ongoing reforms of retirement provision in China.
... Exibir mais + It finds that mature age life expectancy is remarkably uniform among formal sector workers at the time of retirement, although greater heterogeneity does exist for Rural and Urban Residents Pension Scheme members. The implications of a stylized NDC structure are examined covering China’s major pension systems, calibrated to be actuarially neutral. Each system has a different contribution rate and retirement age, consistent with different life expectancies. A complementary social pension is also proposed. The paper concludes that an increased presence of the NDC paradigm has the potential to raise aggregate welfare.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136542 APR 01, 2019
This paper reviews the design of private pensions alongside a notional defined contribution (NDC) – or public – component. A mix of public and private pensions is the bestway to deliver a strong combination of five core outcomes: coverage, adequacy,sustainability, efficiency, and security.
... Exibir mais + Choices for market structure, benefit type,contributions, and investment strategy can be guided by their impact on these outcomes.The clarity of an NDC formula allows the joint distribution of public and private pensions tobe modeled which can be crucial for optimal investment strategies given, for example, thenegative correlation between real per capita gross domestic product growth and equity markets over long periods. NDC payout formulas have broad applications where annuity markets are weak.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136538 APR 01, 2019
Sweden’s reform began with a published sketch in 1992 and developed into nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) legislation in 1994. This paper discusses the underpinnings of the Swedish NDC scheme’s financial stability, factors influencing the adequacy of benefits, and its interplay with other components of the pension system: the public financial defined contribution scheme, the minimum pension guarantee, and the occupational schemes.
... Exibir mais + The paper also includes information on the December 2017 broad six-party political agreement on forthcoming legislation. It concludes with recommendations for additional improvements in the overall old-age pension system, based on the analysis of financial stability, adequacy, and differences in outcomes, and the interaction of the NDC scheme with the guarantee benefits and the occupational schemes.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136539 APR 01, 2019
Nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) schemes offer governments desirable properties in terms of efficiency, fairness, and financial sustainability and an opportunity to deflect the blame for pension cuts.
... Exibir mais + Yet adoptions of NDC schemes largely ground to a halt and several countries retreated from NDC implementation after legislation. Lack of support from powerful international actors is partly to blame, as is the perceived rigidity of NDC in reducing room for policy maneuver. Correct implementation requires substantial administrative capacity. Less demanding automatic stabilizing mechanisms undercut the appeal of NDC in the European Union. Thus, while being an important option for policy makers and a benchmark against which to measure alternative reforms, NDC is unlikely to become the dominant pension design choice anytime soon.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136556 APR 01, 2019
Differences in life expectancy between high and low socioeconomic groups are often large and have widened in recent decades. In the United States, the differences may now be as large as ten to fourteen years.
... Exibir mais + These longevity gaps strongly affect the actuarial fairness and progressivity of many public pension systems, raising the question of possible policy reforms to address this issue. This paper reviews the empirical literature on the longevity differences across socioeconomic groups and their impacts on lifetime benefits, considers how these impacts depend on four different pay-as-you-go pension structures (calibrated on the US case), and discusses some policy options.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136560 APR 01, 2019
This paper shows that as the educational composition in the fifty-five to sixty-four year-old age bracket improved between the mid-1990s and the mid-2010s, the effective retirement age rose rapidly in the Central and Eastern European region.
... Exibir mais + This increase was fast enough to keep life expectancies at the effective retirement age practically unchanged. In effect, the labor market absorbed all improvements in life expectancies in older working ages. The paper also shows that maintaining the current life expectancies at retirement over the next thirty years requires less effort in terms of further raising the effective retirement age than what the region achieved in this respect in the last fifteen years.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136567 APR 01, 2019
This paper starts from the fact that women receive lower pensions than men on average, and considers policies to address that fact. Women typically have lower wages than men, a greater likelihood of part-time work and more career breaks, and thus generally a less complete contribution record.
... Exibir mais + In addition, pension age may be lower for women and annuities may be priced using separate life tables for women. The paper looks at three strategic ameliorative policy directions: policies intended to increase the size and duration of women’s earnings and hence improve their contribution records; policies to redirect resources within the pension system, including for survivors and after divorce; and ways of boosting women’s pensions with resources from outside the pension system.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136568 APR 01, 2019
A positive relationship between lifetime income and life expectancy leads to a redistribution mechanism when the average cohort life expectancy is applied for annuity calculation.
... Exibir mais + Such a distortion puts into doubt the main features of the NDC (nonfinancial defined contribution) scheme and calls for alternative designs to compensate for the heterogeneity. This paper explores five key mechanisms of compensation: individualized annuities; individualized contribution rates; a two-tier contribution structure with socialized and individual rates; and two supplementary two-tier approaches to deal with the income distribution tails. Using unique American and British data, the analysis indicates that both individualized annuities and two-tier contribution schemes are feasible and effective and thus promising policy options. A de-pooling by gender will be required, however.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136564 APR 01, 2019
This paper identifies and discusses four issues in creating annuities in (nonfinancial) defined contribution (NDC) schemes that are essential for systems’ financial stability and fair inter or intragenerational redistribution.
... Exibir mais + The first issue is the choice between incorporating the rate of return into the annuity or into the exogenous indexation. The second issue is in choosing a projection method for life expectancy that produces systematically unbiased estimates. The third issue is at what age the projection of life expectancy is to be fixed over the remaining lifetime of the annuity. The final issue is the prevalence of socioeconomic heterogeneity within the insurance pool.
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Documento de Trabalho (Série Numerada) 136562 APR 01, 2019
Palmer,Edward; Gosson de Varennes,Yuwei Zhao deDisclosed
