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High Frequency Indicators and Tracking Real Activity in North Macedonia (English)

High frequency economic indicators, such as industrial production or retail sales, are weakly correlated with the real gross domestic product (GDP) in North Macedonia. This makes tracking real activity in real time a challenging task. However, quarterly GDP growth may be decomposed into two important components: a fundamental economic signal and a random noise (a measurement error). A methodology discussed in this paper proposes to extract the economic signal that is highly correlated with a number of available high frequency indicators. The presented methodology may be used both as a nowcasting tool and also for construction of a monthly coincident economic indicator for North Macedonia.

Details

  • Author

    World Bank

  • Document Date

    2021/05/17

  • Document Type

    Report

  • Report Number

    167056

  • Volume No

    1

  • Country

    North Macedonia,

  • Region

    Europe and Central Asia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2021/12/16

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Board Meeting Date

    2021-12-16T00:00:00Z

  • Doc Name

    High Frequency Indicators and Tracking Real Activity in North Macedonia

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Citation

World Bank

High Frequency Indicators and Tracking Real Activity in North Macedonia (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099200112162179414/P1754150f6983d0f082ab0c5c01a2a6566