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Turning the Tide on the COVID-19 Crisis (English)

Kazakhstan’s economy started to recover in the second half of 2020, although real GDP is still lower than pre-COVID-19. After suffering the worst contraction in the past two decades, Kazakhstan’s real GDP rebounded in the third quarter of 2020, and growth has extended to the first quarter of 2021. Real GDP in Q1 2021 grew moderately at 1.9 percent in seasonally adjusted terms relative to the Q4 last year. The contraction in retail trade and transport cargo has gradually eased. Construction activities have shown steady growth, supported by a policy allowing pensioners to partially withdraw their savings and a government program that promotes residential investments. We expect the economy will expand modestly, by about 3.2 percent in 2021, below the pre-pandemic level growth rates of 2017–19. The resurgence of COVID-19 and associated restrictions, the specter of higher inflation that could lead to tightening of global financial conditions, and the possible deterioration of SMEs’ balance sheet if the fiscal support is withdrawn, are the factors that could negatively affect the outlook.




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Agaidarov,Azamat Rahardja,Sjamsu Karassayev,Almaz Zhumadil,Baktybek Levitanskaya,Katerina Melecky,Martin Kussainova,Salamat Ebinger,Jane Olga

Turning the Tide on the COVID-19 Crisis (English). Kazakhstan Economic Update Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.