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Kenya economic update - Poised to bounce back? : reviving private sector credit growth and boosting revenue mobilization to support fiscal consolidation (English)

This is a critical time for Kenya, as the incoming administrations at national and devolved levels face the high expectations of ordinary Kenyans to deliver on ambitious economic development agendas and hasten the attainment of Vision 2030. This sixteenth edition of the Kenya economic update seeks to contribute to the policy discourse on pertinent economic issues. The Kenyan economy faced multiple headwinds in 2017. A drought in the earlier half of the year, the ongoing slowdown in private sector credit growth, and a prolonged election cycle weakened private sector demand, notwithstanding an expansionary fiscal stance. Nonetheless, reflecting the relatively diverse economic structure, these headwinds were partially mitigated by the recovery in tourism, better rains in the second half of the year, still low global oil prices, and a relatively stable macroeconomic environment. With headwinds subsiding, economic growth is projected to rebound over the medium term, reaching about 5.8 percent in 2019. However, this rebound is predicated on policy reforms needed to address downside risks that have the potential to derail medium term prospects. This report presents a rich menu of policy options tabled in this edition of the Kenya Economic Update, identifying opportunities for the consolidation of the fiscal stance, both from an expenditure and revenue mobilization perspective. This is complimented with specific suggestions of macroeconomic and microeconomic reform measures that could help address the slowdown in credit growth and the broader issue of access to credit. Finally, policy options to climate proof the agriculture sector, to mitigate the worse effects of adverse weather conditions are discussed.

Details

  • Document Date

    2017/12/01

  • Document Type

    Working Paper

  • Report Number

    121895

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Kenya,

  • Region

    Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2017/12/05

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Kenya economic update - Poised to bounce back? : reviving private sector credit growth and boosting revenue mobilization to support fiscal consolidation

  • Keywords

    credit growth;national institute of statistic;interest rate cap;private sector credit;small and medium enterprise;sources of tax revenue;Macro Economics & Fiscal Management;increase in government expenditure;private investment;agriculture sector;medium term growth;inflation;current account deficit;public sector spending;domestic revenue mobilization;agriculture and industry;Tax Exemption;heavy fuel oil;international oil price;return on asset;private sector participant;errors and omission;private sector demand;effect of drought;cost of credit;agricultural output;issue of access;adverse weather conditions;inclusive economic growth;expansionary fiscal stance;government wage bill;monetary policy implementation;private sector activity;import of goods;benchmark interest rate;loss in revenue;bank lending policy;private consumption demand;personal income tax;duty free imports;public sector wage;stock exchange index;government's development strategy;flow of fund;transport improvement projects;medium size enterprise;policy option;Macroeconomic Stability;fiscal consolidation;government security;stock market;global economy;Labor Market;macroeconomic environment;lending condition;global growth;net export;aggregate demand;merchandise import;domestic demand;climate proofing;manufacturing sector;household consumption;business cycle;core inflation;inflationary pressure;steep decline;political uncertainty;credit scoring;target range;domestic supply;domestic credit;transport equipment;private household;industrial sector;downside risk;capital good;manufactured export;credit access;tax base;export growth;oil import;agriculture product;interbank market;Financial Sector;water industry;liquidity ratio;food import;fiscal deficit;banking system;high inflation;political cycle;industrial supplies;trade dispute;movable collateral;development implementation;private spending;total exemption;durable good;Durable goods;corporate income;merchandise export;banking sector;banking industry;export crop;domestic tourism;transport logistic;communication services;global trade;banking operation;commodity price;construction sector;energy price;public private;trade balance;lending rate;productive sector;import growth;Bank Credit;financial inclusion;healthy growth;dynamic growth;hydropower generation;sectoral reform;global commodity;cyclical downturn;industrial activity;policy uncertainty;investment spending;national highway;electronic system;master data;predatory lending;account holder;potential output;gross loans;Government Treasury;capital flow;net portfolio;Capital Inflows;household sector;investment interest;statistical table;debt interest;Economic Policy;noncommercial purposes;subsidiary right;accelerating growth;public debt;liquidity shock;regional market;Water Management;cheaper goods;Intra-regional Trade;remittance inflow;manufacturing capabilities;Job Creation;agricultural performance;output gap;raw material;originating country;macroeconomic risk;reform measure;security situation;pest infestation;consumer protection;supply side;process industry;saharan africa;nominal anchor;mineral export;financial intermediation;corporate client;food production;long-term growth;employment creation;food crop;

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Citation

Kenya economic update - Poised to bounce back? : reviving private sector credit growth and boosting revenue mobilization to support fiscal consolidation (English). Kenya economic update,no. 16 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/140071512474376644/Kenya-economic-update-Poised-to-bounce-back-reviving-private-sector-credit-growth-and-boosting-revenue-mobilization-to-support-fiscal-consolidation