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Dancing with the giants: China, India, and the global economy (Vietnamese)

This report takes a dispassionate and critical look at the rise of China and India, and asks questions about this growth: Where is it occurring? Who is benefiting most? Is it sustainable? And what are the implications for the rest of the world? The book considers whether the giants' growth will be seriously constrained by weaknesses in governance, growing inequality, and environmental stresses, and it concludes that this need not occur. However, it does suggest that the Chinese and Indian authorities face important challenges in keeping their investment climates favorable, their inequalities at levels that do not undermine growth, and their air and water quality at acceptable levels. The authors also consider China's and India's interactions with the global trading and financial systems and their impact on the global commons, particularly with regard to climate. The book finds that the giants' growth and trade offer most countries opportunities to gain economically. However, many countries will face strong adjustment pressure in manufacturing, particularly those with competing exports and especially if the giants' technical progress is strongly export- enhancing. For a few countries, mainly in Asia, these pressures could outweigh the economic benefits of larger markets in, and cheaper imports from, the giants; and the growth of those countries over the next fifteen years will be slightly lower as a result. The giants will contribute to the increase in world commodity and energy prices but they are not the principal cause of higher oil prices. The giants' emissions of CO2 will grow strongly, especially if economic growth is not accompanied by steps to enhance energy efficiency. At present, a one-time window of opportunity exists for achieving substantial efficiency improvements if ambitious current and future investment plans embody appropriate standards. Moreover, doing so will not be too costly or curtail growth significantly. From their relatively small positions at present, the giants will emerge as significant players in the world financial system as they grow and liberalize. Rates of reserve asset accumulation likely will slow, and emerging pressures will encourage China to reduce its current account surplus.

Details

  • Author

    Winters,L. Alan, Yusuf,Shahid

  • Document Date

    2007/01/01

  • Document Type

    Publication

  • Report Number

    38339

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Asia,

  • Region

    East Asia and Pacific, South Asia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2009/04/30

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Dancing with the giants: China, India, and the global economy

  • Keywords

    absolute terms, Accounting, actual growth, adult literacy, agriculture, allocation of resources, annual growth, annual growth rate, Average growth, basic education, budgetary support, Capital Flows, carbon dioxide, civil society, comparative advantage, comparative advantages, competitive advantage, Consumption Growth, Country Risk, current prices, debt, developing countries, Development Economics, Development Indicators, Development Research, dissemination, economic activity, Economic Development, economic environment, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, Economic Relations, Economics, employment, Energy Consumption, Energy Use, exchange rates, export growth, Exports, factor accumulation, Financial Integration, financial markets, Financial Sector, financial systems, Foreign Assets, foreign direct investment, Fossil Fuel Consumption, Free Trade, future growth, GDP, global campaign, GLOBAL ECONOMY, global markets, global poverty, good governance, Gross Domestic Product, growth path, Growth Rates, high growth, human capital, Income, Income Inequality, increasing inequality, Industrial Revolution, Industrial Sector, Industrialization, International Economic Relations, International Trade, investment climate, labor force, labor force growth, labor forces, legal status, literacy rates, long run, Low-income countries, low-income country, lower fertility, Macroeconomic Performance, Macroeconomics, media coverage, migration, minority, national accounts, natural capital, oil equivalent, output per capita, Pacific Region, per capita incomes, Petroleum Exporting Countries, policy development, policy issues, policy makers, policy reforms, policy research, Political Economy, poor people, population growth, Population Projections, population share, poverty alleviation, Poverty Rates, Poverty Reduction, primary products, product markets, Productivity Growth, public debt, purchasing power, purchasing power parity, Rapid Growth, rural areas, rural residents, savings, scarce resources, secondary school, Sectoral Composition, social infrastructure, social norms, state-owned Enterprises, subsidiary, Sustainable Development, technical change, technical progress, television, tertiary education, TFP, total factor productivity, trough, United Nations population projections, urban population, Urbanization, wages, Western Europe, workforce, World Consumption, World Health Organization, world population, World Trade Organization, WTO

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Citation

Winters,L. Alan Yusuf,Shahid

Dancing with the giants: China, India, and the global economy (Vietnamese). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/155311468005420797/Dancing-with-the-giants-China-India-and-the-global-economy