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Oil booms and revenue management (English)

The edtion of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economic developments and prospects reportsanalyzes the region's short-term growth prospects given global forecasts and current structural features of the economies, as well as the region's prospects for longer-term growth based upon progress in implementing comprehensive structural reforms. MENA region has experienced exceptional growth over the last two years. Over 2003 and 2004, economic growth in MENA averaged more than 5.6 percent a year, the strongest growth in a decade, and up strongly from the 3.6 percent average yearly growth over the 1990s. On a per capita basis, the MENA region's 3.5 percent average growth over the last two years was the region's strongest growth performance since the mid-1970s. Accompanying this strong growth performance, unemployment has declined with the rise in oil prices over 2000- 2004. Unemployment is estimated to have fallen from about 14.9 percent of the labor force in 2000 to 13.4 percent currently, the result of a 37 percent increase in the rate of employment creation over the 1990s. In many respects, the MENA region is in the midst of an economic boom. However, there are caveats to the region's growth acceleration. For one, it has not been especially broad based. Comparing growth over the 1990s with growth over the last two years, 97 percent of the regional growth upturn was driven by just four countries - Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates. In fact, nearly half of the region actually experienced growth downturns relative to the 1990s. Moreover, MENA's recent positive economic developments have been driven largely by external events - in particular, dramatically rising oil prices. And importantly, on a per capita basis, the MENA region's growth over the last two years continues to lag that of other regions, a reflection of both the firming of GDP growth rates across developing regions and the MENA region's high population growth.

Details

  • Author

    De Kleine Feige,Annette I., Dyer,Paul D., Keller,Jennifer L., Riordan,Elliot Joseph, Streifel,Shane S.

  • Document Date

    2005/04/01

  • Document Type

    General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study

  • Report Number

    32994

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Middle East and North Africa,

  • Region

    Middle East and North Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2005/07/20

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Oil booms and revenue management

  • Keywords

    general agreement on tariffs and trade;Egyptian Center for Economic Studies;Gross National Income Per Capita;real economic growth rate;access to new technology;protection property right;world demand for oil;real effective exchange rate;oil price;public sector accountability;per capita basis;oil export revenue;financial sector reform;regional growth rate;crude oil price;reduction in unemployment;quality of public;middle income economy;rate of employment;gdp growth rate;high population growth;progress in governance;labor market development;international good practice;global development finance;access to information;Rule of Law;high oil revenue;import of goods;average oil price;allocation of resource;current account balance;area of governance;control of corruption;external debt obligation;Foreign Exchange Reserve;quality of regulation;impact on tourism;crude oil production;international trade agreement;bilateral trade agreement;foreign direct investment;trade in textile;natural resource endowment;commodity price shock;labor market outcome;trade and investment;foreign investment activity;european investment bank;level of employment;labor force entrant;oil stabilization fund;number of jobs;labor force growth;oil exporter;output growth;government consumption;employment growth;oil boom;employment creation;business environment;oil producer;economic reform;higher growth;transmission channel;net change;government spending;Revenue Management;private consumption;Job Creation;equal weight;average price;contract enforcement;investment spending;regional aggregates;investment account;regional trends;record performance;individual indicator;data availability;labor-abundant countries;financial flow;domestic spending;domestic demand;regional output;windfall revenues;external factor;fiscal balance;financial asset;financial market;tariff reform;industrial country;long-term growth;data limitation;external account;outward orientation;output source;fundamental problem;driving force;global demand;widespread poverty;worker remittance;transit trade;employment opportunity;global forecasts;unemployment decline;personal consumption;domestic investment;local reconstruction;governance weaknesses;dramatic increases;increased investment;observed increase;hydrocarbon revenues;employment opportunities;global security;regional equity;real gdp;government budget;temporary job;domestic condition;Energy Sector;regional ties;country accounting;net export;external environment;employment situation;regional unemployment;competitive industry;beneficial impact;significant challenge;oil producing;Public Employment;tourist arrival;economic model;economic shock;real income;reform process;dollar term;dutch disease;fiscal expenditure;equity market;high unemployment;negative spillover;high energy;trade disruption;risk perception;Real estate;equity price;geographic region;travel restriction;portfolio inflow;industrial zone;external events;regional grouping;expenditure pattern;fiscal development;investment climate;governance challenge;annex annex;external position;specific issue;oil development;european commission;Trade Restrictiveness;individual area;governance reform;aid flow;social issue;divergent paths;total stock;merchandise export;external balance;portfolio equity;stock market;oil windfall;tourism receipts;weighted average;economic liberalization;Export Diversification;export growth;import growth;capital flow;political development;regional impact;real capital;rich economy;tariff rate;reducing tariffs;restrictive policy;government revenue;employment elasticity;employment generation;fiscal stability;female labor;consumer spend;improving governance;export market;increased demand;tourism revenue;

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Citation

De Kleine Feige,Annette I. Dyer,Paul D. Keller,Jennifer L. Riordan,Elliot Joseph Streifel,Shane S.

Oil booms and revenue management (English). MENA economic developments and prospects reports Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/168721468299060432/Oil-booms-and-revenue-management