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Is Poverty in Africa mostly chronic or transient evidence from synthetic panel data (English)

Absent actual panel household survey data, this paper constructs, for the first time, synthetic panel data for more than 20 countries accounting for two-thirds of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this process, the analysis employs repeated cross sections that span, on average, a six-year period for each country. The analysis suggests that all these countries as a whole have had pro-poor growth. One-third of the poor population escaped poverty during the studied period, which is larger than the proportion of the population that fell into poverty in the same period. The region also saw a 9 percent reduction in poverty and a 28 percent increase in the size of the middle class. However, chronic poverty remains high, and a considerable proportion of the population is vulnerable to falling into poverty. There is some limited evidence that most resource-rich and middle-income countries have more upward mobility than downward mobility. Post-secondary education is especially strongly associated with higher upward mobility and less downward mobility, which holds to some extent for female-headed and urban households.

Details

  • Author

    Dang,Hai-Anh H., Dabalen,Andrew L.

  • Document Date

    2017/04/20

  • Document Type

    Policy Research Working Paper

  • Report Number

    WPS8033

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    World,

  • Region

    The World Region,

  • Disclosure Date

    2017/04/20

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Is Poverty in Africa mostly chronic or transient ? evidence from synthetic panel data

  • Keywords

    basic package of health services;downward mobility;upward mobility;estimation of poverty;headcount poverty rate;panel data;middle class;reduction in poverty;household survey data;safety net program;household head age;global poverty;low poverty rate;analysis of poverty;measurement of poverty;sustainable poverty reduction;high unemployment rate;change in poverty;natural resource curse;correlation between poverty;measure of poverty;risk and vulnerability;faculty research;middle income category;social protection program;degree of immobility;social welfare objective;domestic economic conditions;inequality and growth;education and health;vulnerability to poverty;higher consumption levels;international labor organization;escape poverty;vulnerability index;vulnerable population;poor household;measurement error;poverty status;poverty dynamic;Economic Mobility;household poverty;welfare measure;population group;Fragile Situations;statistical method;chronically poor;urban residence;net change;asset index;cross sections;estimation result;population share;welfare analysis;vulnerable group;positive growth;mobility pattern;vulnerable category;vulnerability reduction;transition matrix;population characteristic;household consumption;age range;budgetary plan;high poverty;Economic Inequality;measuring poverty;negative growth;world development;average consumption;political instability;population size;large population;country accounting;dynamic perspective;alternative interpretation;positive outcome;cultural change;low-income group;welfare outcome;measuring vulnerability;development study;human capital;longitudinal analysis;empirical method;consumption survey;validation exercises;sample selection;household composition;dynamic process;regional poverty;reduction rate;education attainment;household characteristic;consumption datum;welfare distribution;average household;living standard;population level;development policy;short-term employment;Poverty measures;transitory poverty;conceptual approach;Higher Education;global employment;chronic poor;empirical analysis;inverse relationship;survey period;poverty estimate;short period;equal share;urban household;study period;data coverage;individual characteristic;Transient Poverty;poverty situation;high transport;relative increase;trading activity;coastal countries;landlocked country;simple average;country classification;open access;age restriction;good performance;

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Citation

Dang,Hai-Anh H. Dabalen,Andrew L.

Is Poverty in Africa mostly chronic or transient evidence from synthetic panel data (English). Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 8033,Paper is funded by the Strategic Research Program (SRP) Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/172891492703250779/Is-Poverty-in-Africa-mostly-chronic-or-transient-evidence-from-synthetic-panel-data