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South Africa Economic Update : Enrollments in Tertiary Education Must Rise (English)

South Africa's much anticipated economic rebound in 2018 did not occur. While substantial efforts by the authorities to strengthen governance of public resources and stabilize the fiscal situation helped the economy to not contract further, economic growth remained tepid with a technical recession (two successive quarters of negative economic growth) in the first half of 2018. GDP growth is expected at below 1 percent in 2018, down from an already low 1.3 percent in 2017. A number of exogenous factors contributed to this poor growth performance. Domestically, climate variations such as a prolonged drought in the Western Cape where harvests were delayed exerted a huge toll on agricultural production. Externally, mounting trade tensions between the United States and China, and tightening global financial conditions contributed to slowing the pace of foreign financial inflows to South Africa while lessening the demand for its exports. Rising world oil prices also exerted strong pressure on the balance of payments and domestic prices, depressing private consumption. These negative developments, however, do not conceal the fact that South Africa~^!!^s growth challenge is deep-seated and largely structural. To grow faster and sustainably, the economy will need to be more inclusive, requiring the participation of a greater share of the population mainly through job creation. Furthermore, persistent inequality of income and of opportunity will continue to raise pressures for redistribution of limited resources that are drawn from a small tax base. Radical policy demands are more likely in a stagnant economy, fuel policy uncertainty and deter private investment. At the Presidential Jobs Summit and the South African Investment Conference held in October 2018 agreements were made on actions that are expected to enable job creation and to attract higher levels of investment, including interalia, education and skills interventions, and initiatives to reduce policy uncertainty on land reform, mining and black economic empowerment.


  • Author

    Dessus,Sebastien C., Hanusch,Marek, Nagashima,Yoko

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    Working Paper

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  • Country

    South Africa,

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    Africa East,

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  • Doc Name

    South Africa Economic Update : Enrollments in Tertiary Education Must Rise

  • Keywords

    Fiscal and Debt Sustainability; Technical and Vocational Education; small and medium size enterprise; quality of education; private tertiary education institution; labour relation; vulnerability to climate change; changing nature of work; quality of learning; human capital; years of schooling; Manufacturing; oil price; employability of graduate; quality assurance mechanism; investments in agriculture; Labor Market Observatory; multilateral development bank; current account deficit; Demand For Education; tuition fee; policy uncertainty; service and infrastructure; expenditure per student; engine of growth; trade and investment; international good practice; global economic prospect; exchange rate volatility; credible monetary policy; high unemployment rate; public financial resource; risk sharing mechanisms; labor market development; gross domestic product; municipal capacity building; political executive; exchange rate pass; south african rand; student financial aid; depreciation and amortization; household survey data; petroleum exporting country; product life cycle; expropriation of land; number of cars; tight fiscal situation; Poverty & Inequality; terms of trade; level of policy; colleges and university; general government consumption; world oil price; law enforcement agencies; rates of return; import of goods; large private companies; cost of credit; consumer confidence index; private sector debt; business confidence index; management of state; drag on growth; balance of payment; university enrollment rate; goods trade; community college; fixed deposit; economic empowerment; commodity price; transactional account; private consumption; Mining; inclusive growth; Job Creation; Haver Analytics; business service; portfolio flow; household consumption; metal price; export orders; income-contingent loan; global financial; oil production; supply side; budgetary resource; Fiscal Stimulus; political climate; Real estate; land reform; public resource; currency depreciation; oil sector; capital outflow; Economic Stimulus; private investment; public debt; turkish lira; trade tensions; Exchange Rates; constitutional amendment; load shedding; agricultural production; Education Quality; net export; financial cost; capacity constraint; private rate; dropout rate; financial market; estimate impact; Mining Policy; domestic demand; iron ore; Higher Education; extensive consultation; youth entrepreneurship; promoting equity; young person; investment environment; reserve margin; equity requirement; private institution; amicable resolution; investment increase; price forecast; mining investment; expanding enrollment; public university; integrated course; traditional model; school teacher; developmental issue; financial situation; productive sector; fiscal incentive; skill need; operational framework; competitive funds; performance contract; cooperative program; informal sector; mining operation; complementary measure; mining right; previous draft; ownership change; investment growth; learning quality; oil field; rising inflation; agricultural activity; work environment; school leadership; community engagement; trade growth; global demand; political uncertainty; industrial production; consumption growth; export growth; social progress; Tax Administration; national output; fiscal commitment; sustainable investment; consensus estimate; political constraint; widespread corruption; global trade; private company; test score; survival rate; transparent process; Child Mortality; manufacturing export; works program; effective monitoring; external vulnerability; industrial capacity; global policy; rural enterprise; social intervention; foreign investor; risk averse; domestic investor; price stability; emerging economy; Emerging economies; teaching quality; advanced economy; fuel market; land initiative; divided societies; hourly earnings; building consensus; oil investment; social partner; weak demand; youth employment; parental income; customs fraud



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Dessus,Sebastien C. Hanusch,Marek Nagashima,Yoko

South Africa Economic Update : Enrollments in Tertiary Education Must Rise (English). South Africa Economic Update,no. 12 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.