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Towards a new social contract (English)

Whereas the global economy is set for a gradual pick up, economic prospects in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remain flat. Growth in MENA is expected to slow down in 2015 and range between 3.1 and 3.3 percent according to the World Bank and consensus forecasts respectively, and continue on the same path in 2016. The main reasons for the continued, sluggish growth are: prolonged conflict and political instability in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen; low oil prices that are dragging down growth in oil exporters; and the slow pace of reforms that is standing in the way of a resumption of investment. Violent conflicts are devastating people’s lives, infrastructure and national economies, with spillovers to neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia. A longer-term perspective indicates a more homogeneous region and a more hopeful future. Despite their current differences, MENA countries have since independence been following more or less the same development model. From internationally comparable data, all MENA countries were below the regression line connecting "voice and accountability" with per capita income. Some people have described this development model as an "authoritarian bargain" (Yousef, 2004) or a social contract. This common social contract delivered relatively successful results on both economic and social fronts. In the 2000s, economic growth averaged 4-5 percent a year. Poverty rates were low and declining. Almost everyone completed primary school, and enrollment rates in secondary and tertiary education, especially for women, were high and rising. MENA registered the fastest decline in infant mortality rates in the world. Contrary to perceptions, inequality (as measured by conventional indicators such as the Gini coefficient) was lower than comparable countries elsewhere and either constant or declining. The MENA Economic Monitor supplements the World Bank's bi-annual MENA Quarterly Economic Brief and presents the short term, macroeconomic outlook and economic challenges facing the countries in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Details

  • Author

    Devarajan,Shantayanan, Mottaghi,Lili

  • Document Date

    2015/04/01

  • Document Type

    Working Paper

  • Report Number

    95650

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Middle East and North Africa,

  • Region

    Middle East and North Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2015/04/14

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Towards a new social contract

  • Keywords

    fiscal deficit;female labor force participation;gdp growth rate;quality public service;oil exporter;quality of public service;quality of service delivery;large number of women;fiscal balance;net job creation;oil price;social contract;renewable water resource;total labor force;political instability;resource-rich developing country;deceleration in growth;quality of education;source of income;privileges and immunity;international oil price;real exchange rate;energy and water;internationally comparable data;infant mortality rate;complete primary school;per capita income;education for all;expansionary fiscal policy;long term forecast;public sector wage;number of jobs;number of inspections;access to finance;sovereign wealth fund;working age population;source income;oil price collapse;loss of competitiveness;current account deficit;cash transfer system;educated young people;extractive industry investment;domestic inflationary pressures;barrels per day;crude oil supply;unemployment rate;oil importer;informal sector;budget deficit;concentration index;real gdp;Wage Bill;youth unemployment;Public Services;childhood disease;fiscal consolidation;Violent Conflict;Civil War;capital spending;regulatory uncertainty;total trade;foreign reserve;security situation;consensus forecast;quality education;private tutoring;private clinic;cheap oil;public clinic;economic recovery;enterprise survey;fiscal saving;popular literature;stock market;university graduate;fiscal situation;monopoly profit;remittance outflow;fiscal surplus;trade deficit;monopolistic industries;energy subsidies;tax official;physical damage;monopoly power;agricultural productivity;Government Performance;Health Service;package worth;informal network;informal payment;citizen participation;industrial zone;coastal area;domestic industry;basic reading;global market;health problem;individual need;teacher absenteeism;transfer technology;reservation wage;low rate;tourist arrival;tourism sector;domestic demand;external demand;filling station;Real estate;Boosting Growth;job growth;preferential treatment;foreign competition;construction permit;tourism industry;national economy;transition country;transition countries;financial crisis;unemployment increase;global recovery;trade balance;security risk;fiscal pressure;military expenditure;future market;enrolment rate;commodity classification;long-term perspective;free health;high concentration;citizen voice;regression line;natural log;chronic problem;excess supply;conventional indicator;military spending;donor funding;construction material;fragile environment;government revenue;investment spending;foreign revenue;oil sector;political conflict;Fiscal policies;fiscal shock;gas prices;Capital Investments;tradable sector;Fuel Subsidies;oil revenue;oil production;government decision;foreign asset;commercial purpose;global economy;positive growth;regional conflict;fuel shortage;original work;copyright owner;oil field;aid flow;living condition;oil windfall;framework agreement;infrastructure service;water scarcity;water stress;Learning and Innovation Credit;annual sale;popular protests;live birth;productivity growth;government budget;electricity blackout;total employment;absentee rates;high share;informal employment;saharan africa;public system;small startups;remote area;anecdotal evidence;

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Citation

Devarajan,Shantayanan Mottaghi,Lili

Towards a new social contract (English). Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economic Monitor Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/202171468299130698/Towards-a-new-social-contract