Tracking economic activity in real time is a difficult task for forecasters due to data publication lags, frequent and/or large revisions and lack of high-frequency indicators. For North Macedonia, first GDP estimates are typically available two months after the end of a quarter and are sometimes subject to further delays and subsequent revisions. In the absence of official GDP estimates, domestic economic activity can still be assessed and monitored with the use of other economic indicators that are available on a more frequent basis. In times of heightened uncertainty and prolonged economic instability that warrant rapid policy actions, such as the ongoing pandemic, nowcasting or real-time forecasting becomes ever more relevant
Details
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Document Date
2022/02/16
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Document Type
Brief
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Report Number
167958
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Volume No
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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Country
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Region
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Disclosure Date
2022/02/16
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Doc Name
North Macedonia Nowcasting Release : 2021 Q4
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Keywords
high frequency; trading partner; domestic economic activity; employment in industry; industrial production; measurement error; external trade; real time; business expectation; confidence index; model strategy; selection criterion; principal component; statistical association; government revenue; vat revenue; business cycle; random walk; retail trade; frequent basis; recent past; economic instability
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Citation
North Macedonia Nowcasting Release : 2021 Q4 (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/211341642407362448/North-Macedonia-Nowcasting-Release-2021-Q4