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The City of Johannesburg Can End AIDS by 2030 : Modelling the Impact of Achieving the Fast-Track Targets and What it Will Take to Get There (English)

In 2014, city leaders from around the world endorsed the Paris Declaration on fast-track cities, pledging to achieve the 2020 and 2030 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) targets championed by Joint United Nations Program on HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) (UNAIDS). The City of Johannesburg - one of South Africa’s metropolitan municipalities and also a health district - has over 600,000 people living with HIV (PLHIV), more than any other city worldwide. The authors estimate what it will take in terms of programmatic targets and costs for the City of Johannesburg to meet the fast-track targets and demonstrate the impact that this will have. The authors applied the optima HIV epidemic and resource allocation model to demographic, epidemiological, and behavioral data on 26 sub-populations in Johannesburg. Plausible scale-ups of other proven interventions ((voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), condom distribution, and female sex workers (FSW) strategies) can yield additional reductions in new infections (between 4 and 15 percent), and in overall treatment investment needs. Scaling up VMMC in line with national targets is found to be cost-effective in the medium term. The scale-up in testing and treatment programs over this decade has been rapid, but these efforts must be doubled to reach 2020 targets. Strategic investments in proven interventions will help Johannesburg achieve the treatment targets and be on track to end AIDS by 2030.


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    Stuart,Robyn M., Fraser-Hurt,Nicole, Kerr,Cliff C., Mabusela,Emily, Madi,Vusi, Mkhwanazi,Fredrika, Pillay,Yogan, Barron,Peter, Muzah,Batanayi, Matsebula,Thulani Clement, Gorgens,Marelize, Wilson,David P.

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    The City of Johannesburg Can End AIDS by 2030 : Modelling the Impact of Achieving the Fast-Track Targets and What it Will Take to Get There

  • Keywords

    men who have sex with men; female sex workers; condom distribution; international aid; gap in access; service delivery modalities; diagnosis and treatment; economies of scope; movement of people; economies of scale; global aids response; health service use; treatment and care; cost of prevention; continuum of care; efficiency gain; female condom; Antiretroviral therapies; antiretroviral therapy; mathematical model; primary prevention; investment requirement; prevention services; prevention programmes; base case; viral load; treatment coverage; net saving; male circumcision; population size; tertiary institution; evaluation study; investment level; study design; program efficiency; young females; skill building; community level; age band; population group; adequate supply; epidemiological impact; treatment services; laboratory monitoring; stock management; public health; annual investment; literature review; population transition; fiscal commitment; casual partners; epidemic indicators; global epidemiology; females age; aids relief; health authorities; wait area; legal literacy; children of ages; patient records; surveillance study; treatment programmes; economic prosperity; open access; price reduction; original work; collaborative effort; investment need; saharan africa; lessons learnt; functional integration; target setting; national policy; jurisdictional level; metropolitan municipalities; resource optimization; behaviour change; political will; aids epidemic; data availability; cohort study; disease progression; decision science; research study; strategic investment; allocative efficiency; target echoes



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Stuart,Robyn M. Fraser-Hurt,Nicole Kerr,Cliff C. Mabusela,Emily Madi,Vusi Mkhwanazi,Fredrika Pillay,Yogan Barron,Peter Muzah,Batanayi Matsebula,Thulani Clement Gorgens,Marelize Wilson,David P.

The City of Johannesburg Can End AIDS by 2030 : Modelling the Impact of Achieving the Fast-Track Targets and What it Will Take to Get There (English). Author accepted manuscript Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.