2016 is the fifth consecutive year of sluggish trade growth and the year with the weakest trade performance since the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Current estimates of growth in the volumes of trade in goods and services range from 1.9 percent to 2.5 percent; preliminary high-frequency data suggest that merchandise trade volumes may have grown by slightly above 1 percent. The year 2016 is different from the other post crisis years, in that trade sluggishness is a characteristic of both advanced and emerging economies. Trade developments in 2016 continued to reflect enduring structural determinants, such as the maturing of global value chains (GVCs) and the slower pace of trade liberalization, as well as cyclical factors, notably slow global growth, the trough in commodity prices, and macroeconomic rebalancing in China. The increase in policy uncertainty may account for up to 75 percent of the worsening of the trade slowdown in 2016. In this report, the authors addresses three questions concerning recent trade developments: what is happening?; why?; and does it matter? The report is organized as follows: chapter one presents trade developments in 2016; and chapter two presents trade and productivity slowdowns: the role of global value chains.
Details
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Author
Constantinescu,Ileana Cristina, Mattoo,Aaditya, Ruta,Michele
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Document Date
2017/02/21
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Document Type
Working Paper
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Report Number
112930
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Volume No
1
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Total Volume(s)
2
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Country
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Region
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Disclosure Date
2017/02/21
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Doc Name
Trade developments in 2016 : policy uncertainty weighs on world trade
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Keywords
vertical specialization;labor productivity;world trade;foreign value added;Economic Policy;policy uncertainty;trade growth;global trade;trade agreement;global value chain;trade volume;import volume;global financial crisis;international division of labor;merchandise trade volumes;Emerging economies;emerging economy;advanced economy;trade value;annual average growth rate;preferential trade agreement;domestic value added;real effective exchange rate;rate of productivity growth;world trade growth;volume of trade;gross exports;growth in trade;gross domestic product;global economic prospect;import of goods;world trade value;european immigration;manufacturing industry;Trade Policy;Trade Policies;real value;trade-restrictive measures;export of goods;percent change;imported inputs;merchandise import;diffusion of technology;effect of trade;commodity price;propensity to import;international trade relation;share of import;country fixed effect;impact on productivity;growth and development;cost of finance;prima facie evidence;world merchandise export;types of good;terms of trade;trade in services;final goods imports;trade in goods;growth of trade;
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Citation
Constantinescu,Ileana Cristina Mattoo,Aaditya Ruta,Michele
Trade developments in 2016 : policy uncertainty weighs on world trade (English). Global trade watch Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/228941487594148537/Trade-developments-in-2016-policy-uncertainty-weighs-on-world-trade