This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks, and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: (1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterized by the representative concentration pathways), and (2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.
Details
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Author
van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kriegler, Elmar, O’Neill, Brian C., Ebi,Kristie Lee, Riahi, Keywan, Carter, Timothy R., Edmonds, Jae, Hallegatte,Stephane, Kram, Tom, Mathur, Ritu, Winkler,Harald Ernst
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Document Date
2014/01/01
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Document Type
Journal Article
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Report Number
102419
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Volume No
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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Country
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Region
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Disclosure Date
2014/02/01
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Doc Name
A new scenario framework for climate change research : scenario matrix architecture
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Keywords
international social science council;climate policy;radiative forcing;climate change research;intergovernmental panel on climate change;impact of climate change;adaptation policy;assessment of climate policy;global mean temperature increase;research community;mitigation policy;climate change impact;benefits of mitigation;costs of mitigation;greenhouse gas emission;social science research;future climate change;climate change projections;socio-economic development;climate model;opportunities for human;regional climate projections;effect of adaptation;analysis of adaptation;impact of land;air pollutant concentration;climate change analysis;Climate Change Policy;rate of change;global environmental assessment;research and assessment;combination of factor;climate policy costs;global climate sensitivity;international climate policy;integrated assessment models;global environmental change;sustainable development agenda;national climate change;development pathway;land use;climate impact;earth system;mitigation cost;technology development;reference scenario;energy system;climate forcing;global cooperation;natural system;climatic change;institutional change;climate outcomes;adaptation cost;research discipline;fundamental research;international cooperation;climate response;
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Citation
van Vuuren, Detlef P. Kriegler, Elmar O’Neill, Brian C. Ebi,Kristie Lee Riahi, Keywan Carter, Timothy R. Edmonds, Jae Hallegatte,Stephane Kram, Tom Mathur, Ritu Winkler,Harald Ernst
A new scenario framework for climate change research : scenario matrix architecture (English). Author accepted manuscript Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/243261467987841378/A-new-scenario-framework-for-climate-change-research-scenario-matrix-architecture