This paper investigates whether poor employment prospects of potential insurgents help to fuel conflict. The paper provides a new test of this "opportunity cost mechanism" using one of the largest shocks to labor demand in agricultural societies: harvest. Theoretically, the paper shows that because seasonal harvest shocks are temporary and anticipated, they change opportunity costs while keeping the dynamic benefits of fighting constant, yielding unbiased estimates even if those benefits are unobserved. In contrast, many other shocks in the conflict literature are persistent and unanticipated, thus also varying the dynamic benefits of fighting that confound estimates of the opportunity cost mechanism. Empirically, the paper estimates the effect of harvest shocks on conflict intensity in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan using subnational variation in the timing and intensity of harvest driven by local climatic conditions. Consistent with the opportunity cost mechanism, the results show that the onset of harvest usually reduces the number of insurgent attacks.
Details
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Author
Guardado,Jenny, Pennings,Steven Michael
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Document Date
2020/08/31
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Document Type
Policy Research Working Paper
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Report Number
WPS9373
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Volume No
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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Country
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Region
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Disclosure Date
2020/08/31
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Doc Name
The Seasonality of Conflict
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Keywords
opportunity cost; development research group; marginal utility of consumption; marginal product of labor; low per capita income; commodity price shock; local climatic conditions; negative income shock; types of attack
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Citation
Guardado,Jenny Pennings,Steven Michael
The Seasonality of Conflict (English). Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 9373 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/261391598906198836/The-Seasonality-of-Conflict