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Going beyond the first child : analysis of Russian mothers' desired and actual fertility Patterns (English)

The Russian Federation's population has been declining since 1992, but recently the decline appears to be over. Although fertility has risen since the 2007 introduction of the family policy package, which focused on stimulating second and higher-order births, total fertility rates still remain significantly below replacement rate. Unlike some Western European countries, low overall fertility in Russia can be explained predominantly by a high prevalence of one-child families, despite the two-child ideal family size reported by the majority of Russians. This paper examines the correlates of Russian first-time mothers' desire and decision to have a second child. Using the 2004–12 waves of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the study focuses on the motherhood-career trade-off as a potential obstacle to higher fertility in Russia. The preliminary results indicate that among Russian first-time mothers, being in stable employment is positively associated with the likelihood of having a second child. Moreover, the desire to have a second child is positively associated with the first child attending formal childcare, which suggests that the availability, affordability, and quality of such childcare can be important for promoting fertility. These results are broadly consistent with previous studies in other European countries that indicate that the ability of mothers to combine work and family has important implications for fertility, and that pro-natalist policies focusing on childcare accessibility can offer the greatest payoffs. In addition to these factors, better housing conditions, being married, having an older child, and having a first-born boy are also positively associated with having a second child.


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    Levin,Victoria, Besedina,Elena, Aritomi,Tami

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    Policy Research Working Paper

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  • Country

    Russian Federation,

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    Europe and Central Asia,

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  • Doc Name

    Going beyond the first child : analysis of Russian mothers' desired and actual fertility Patterns

  • Keywords

    natural increase in population;gender and labor market;increase in fertility rate;stable employment;total fertility rate;ideal family size;families with child;demand for children;decline in fertility;child care arrangement;high birth rate;child care center;high unemployment rate;health care system;number of births;household survey data;social security contribution;secondary vocational education;effect on people;flexible work arrangement;care of child;labour market participation;public awareness campaign;vulnerability to shock;labor market policy;impact on fertility;high fertility rate;family policy;fixed effect;standard error;maternity leave;opportunity cost;marital status;Cash Transfer;housing size;wage income;married couple;childcare center;living space;household expenditure;financial transfer;marginal effect;Population Aging;demographic research;replacement rate;life expectancy;local unemployment;housing allowance;tax deduction;fertility decline;housing condition;empirical analysis;econometric analysis;employment status;high wage;important policy;public policy;poor household;child's age;job tenure;normal good;household welfare;average age;Higher Education;descriptive statistic;child cohort;glass ceiling;fertility trend;skills updating;capital policy;cohort fertility;family economics;older child;reproductive intentions;reproductive behavior;DEC Policy Review;household wealth;university degree;demographic change;work status;individual weight;small sample;formal care;monthly income;mother's age;gender bias;education level;age variable;household characteristic;policy variable;household income;statistical significance;stochastic model;industrialized country;Industrialized countries;ceteris paribus;population research;fertility behavior;policy option;sample survey;children of ages;future prospect;household structure;labor income;macroeconomic uncertainty;subjective assessment;regional unemployment;financial benefit;demographic factor;lump sum;family life;fertility intention;fertility level;empirical study;demographic trend;educational differences;tax incentive;bivariate analysis;biological child;significant factor;delayed childbearing;high share;financial resource;large families;government use;policy tool;lump-sum payment;replacement level;robustness check;parental leave;enhancing women;gender stereotype;open access;young child;fertility determinant;econometric model;policy package;birth order;financial constraint;individual level;birth cohort;representative sample;age pyramid;working-age population;human capital;reproductive age;married woman;data availability;study period;Social Protection;equal work;causal relationship;economic vulnerability;development policy;effective policies;fertility preference;gender equity;



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Levin,Victoria Besedina,Elena Aritomi,Tami

Going beyond the first child : analysis of Russian mothers' desired and actual fertility Patterns (English). Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 7643 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.