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Nigeria biannual economic update : the case for sustaining state fiscal reform (English)

Nigeria's economy recorded positive growth (0.6 percent year-on-year) in the second quarter of 2017, after contracting for 5 consecutive quarters, and growth is expected to reach 1 percent in 2017, contingent on sustained recovery of oil production. Although the negative spillovers fromlower oil revenue have diminished with the increased availability of foreign exchange,macroeconomic imbalances remain and severe revenue shortfalls continue to hamperbudget implementation. Nigeria experienced its first recession in over two decades in 2016, when the economy contracted by 1.6 percent due to negative oil price and oil production shocks,which spilled over to the non-oil sectors. Oil GDP shrank by 14.4 percent, and non-oilGDP contracted by 0.2 percent. Oil exports plummeted by 25 percent in 2016 (in US dollar terms);however, imports contracted even faster (33 percent) due to constraints on foreign exchange,resulting in a positive current account balance (0.7 percent GDP) in 2016.

Details

  • Author

    Varma,Sona, Timmis,Emilija, Azad,Abdulhamid, Lee,Yue Man, Joseph-Raji,Gloria Aitalohi, Benmessaoud,Rachid, Bartsch,Ulrich, Kojima,Masami, Ogebe,Joseph Orinya

  • Document Date

    2017/10/01

  • Document Type

    Working Paper

  • Report Number

    121301

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Nigeria,

  • Region

    Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2017/11/13

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Nigeria biannual economic update : the case for sustaining state fiscal reform

  • Keywords

    medium term expenditure framework;foreign exchange;Fiscal and Debt Sustainability;real effective exchange rate;real gross domestic product;financial market;foreign exchange market;foreign exchange sale;parallel market rate;current account balance;exchange rate difference;errors and omission;federal government budget;barrels per day;oil price assumption;debt service expenditure;foreign exchange policy;inflation;capital expenditure;oil production;value added tax;labor force growth;official foreign exchange;private sector activity;role of state;oil sector development;financial market participant;crude oil price;private sector credit;multiple exchange rate;local currency debt;debt service ratio;high oil price;working age population;foreign exchange inflow;net indirect tax;external debt service;crude oil revenue;amount of liquidity;official exchange rate;average oil price;growth in agriculture;expansionary fiscal policy;money market rate;fiscal deficit;basic price;real gdp;capital budget;petrol price;household size;market price;government fiscal;external reserve;interbank market;positive growth;corporate tax;principal repayment;existing debt;Fiscal policies;investment inflow;increased supply;broad money;petroleum product;budget target;fiscal performance;Real estate;administrative measure;solid mineral;welfare indicator;dependency ratio;budget amendment;agricultural production;fiscal consolidation;related taxes;debt datum;capital component;capital repatriation;dividend remittance;economic recovery;gender disparity;oil output;loan repayment;interest repayment;subscription payment;annual reporting;budget amount;state debt;female child;electricity tariff;banking system;national population;commercial bank;school enrollment;import contract;output growth;collaborative effort;recurrent budgets;fuel supply;government revenue;bond market;budget approval;investment instrument;fiscal stress;fiscal account;mineral revenue;diaspora bond;budget financing;external borrowing;budgetary expenditure;budget revenue;independent revenues;treasury bill;domestic borrowing;agricultural sector;farm produce;capital spending;collection agency;gross revenue;Fuel Subsidies;health facility;negative spillover;market fundamentals;external financing;trade movement;foreign financing;tax policy;government expenditure;creating markets;manufacturing sector;Tax Reform;Oil Export;government deficit;foreign reserve;regional flood;distribution list;raw material;rising trend;fiscal pressure;reform measure;trade balance;monetary policy;delivery time;production level;goods export;Job Creation;security situation;public debt;Fiscal Reform;average household;demographic characteristic;budget performance;domestic debt;high inflation;budget deficit;macroeconomic instability;foreign borrowing;additional revenue;fiscal risk;budget expenditure;investor confidence;put pressure;rent seeking;financing activities;import restriction;core inflation;positive impact;financing constraint;downside risk;private consumption;rural divide;call rate;largest groups;rating agency;sovereign debt;overnight rate;global scale;female head;medical fees;Private School;school fee;stock market;literate individual;

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Citation

Varma,Sona Timmis,Emilija Azad,Abdulhamid Lee,Yue Man Joseph-Raji,Gloria Aitalohi Benmessaoud,Rachid Bartsch,Ulrich Kojima,Masami Ogebe,Joseph Orinya

Nigeria biannual economic update : the case for sustaining state fiscal reform (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/277951510594783976/Nigeria-biannual-economic-update-the-case-for-sustaining-state-fiscal-reform