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Turkey Economic Monitor : Adjusting the Sails (English)

Despite an initial surge in COVID-19 cases, cross country data suggests that Turkey containedrelatively quickly the spread and worst health effects of the virus. As in other countries, however, continued vigilance is essential to sustain this fragile trend. Turkey’s pandemic response may offer some lessons, notwithstanding country specific conditions. Turkey implemented social distancing, mobility restrictions and health policies relatively quickly. This may have enabled more targeted measures compared to countries that reacted later, forcing them into more widespread lockdowns. Targeted measures in turn could have helped contain the spread of the virus, mortality rates, and perhaps even some of the decline in economic activity. Lessons from other countries suggest that health, social distancing and some mobility measures should be maintained to prevent the risks of a second wave. The economic impact of the COVID-19 health crisis has understandably derailed a fragile economic recovery in Turkey. By the second half of 2019, the economy started to gradually recover from the shock of the mid-2018 economic turmoil. Inflation moderated and external balances narrowed. The situation turned quickly by March 2020 – the TEM takes stock of the economic impact of COVID-19 through five different channels.

Details

  • Author

    Rab,Habib Nasser, Yasar,Pinar, Knight,David Stephen, Atas,Erdem, Cuevas,Pablo Facundo, Nebiler,Metin, Ozen,Etkin

  • Document Date

    2020/08/01

  • Document Type

    Working Paper

  • Report Number

    151599

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Türkiye,

  • Region

    Europe and Central Asia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2020/08/10

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Turkey Economic Monitor : Adjusting the Sails

  • Keywords

    current account deficit; current account imbalance; trade and investment; gross fixed capital formation; public bank; current account balance; tourism; economic shock; active cases; external imbalance; monetary policy; Labor Market; global value chain; number of new cases; labor force participation rate; domestic private bank; Human Development Practice; new poor; health effect; take stock; external market pressure; financial sector specialist; net open position; Foreign Exchange Reserve; social protection system; inflation; Financial Stability; forbearance measure; social distance; external pressure; financial system; private consumption; monetary expansion; fatality rate; global demand; million people; program leader; potential output; price pressure; public transfer; Fiscal Expansion; external financing; job loss; unemployment rate; domestic output; Economic Policy; balance sheet risk; fall in demand; public health response; financial sector regulator; income class; negative health impacts; share of state; perceptions of risk; sovereign credit risk; signs of recovery; short-term external debt; line of defense; use of reserves; labor market participation; chronic respiratory disease; High Blood Pressure; social security system; working age population; monetary gold; current account surplus; social assistance system; balance of payment; Logistics Performance Index; relatively high rate; burden of disease; Agriculture; Manufacturing; financial instability; domestic borrowing; fiscal policy; Fiscal policies; fiscal measure; energy price; discouraged worker; high inflation; wage reduction; virus spread; economic recovery; real sector; fiscal space; low energy; banking sector; fiscal operation; fiscal response; pandemic response; medium-term outlook; external demand; global economy; International Trade; household income; industrial activity; economic expectation; tourism receipts; external vulnerability; inflation deviation; monetary response; export market; vulnerable worker; merchandise trade; low rate; household characteristic; young professional; administrative support; communication support; policy priority; poor household; global recession; monetary discipline; income household; cross-country data; young adult; human capital; new job; policy option; education level; dependency ratio; stagnation point; employment retention; household size; Job Creation; disease management; financial measure; international reserve; unemployment benefit; retail trade; firm survey; repayment obligation; unintended effect; global mobility; external borrowing; financial turmoil; regulatory forbearance; currency risk; maturity mismatch; Fiscal Sustainability; vulnerable sector; supply condition; discretionary policy; discretionary policies; baseline scenario; business association; employment increase; capital outflow; financial debt; credit guarantee; capital flow; productivity growth; term finance; female participation; sovereign debt; macroprudential regulation; Health policies; domestic measures; greater access; financial stress; external balance; retirement pension; liquidity support; demographic factor; sector activity; labor demand; private enterprise; domestic demand; financial flow; available data; Cash Transfer; credit expansion; sectoral composition; response rate; fiscal imbalance; denominated bond; global health; trade balance; respiratory distress; education statistic; health statistics; Cardiovascular Disease; internal mobility; health capacity; medical condition; economic integration; base price; product category; global effort; portfolio asset; Investment Flow; health shock; capacity utilization; export industry; net export; portfolio flow; construction investment; government effectiveness; commercial bank; nominal wage; currency volatility; floating rate; external trade; capital flight; firm size; survey sample; trade deficit; trading partner; Coping Mechanisms; general merchandise; primary income; subsidiary right; disease burden

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Citation

Rab,Habib Nasser Yasar,Pinar Knight,David Stephen Atas,Erdem Cuevas,Pablo Facundo Nebiler,Metin Ozen,Etkin

Turkey Economic Monitor : Adjusting the Sails (English). Turkey Economic Monitor Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/300771597079660362/Turkey-Economic-Monitor-Adjusting-the-Sails