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Inequality, uprisings, and conflict in the Arab World (English)

Against this backdrop of a slowing global economy, the MENA region is stagnating. Continued low oil prices, the escalation of conflicts, and civil wars make the short-term prospects for a growth recovery slim. The World Bank estimates regional GDP growth to stay at around 2.8 percent in 2015, lower than predicted in April. While growth is slightly higher than last year, overall growth in the region has not exceeded three percent for over three years. In a positive scenario of decreasing tensions in Libya, Iraq, and Syria, together with recovery in the Euro area that could boost external demand, growth in the region could rebound to 4.4 percent in 2016 and the following year. However, if current circumstances persist, overall growth is not expected to recover any time soon.

Details

  • Author

    Ianchovichina,Elena, Mottaghi,Lili, Devarajan,Shantayanan

  • Document Date

    2015/10/01

  • Document Type

    Publication

  • Report Number

    99989

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Middle East and North Africa,

  • Region

    Middle East and North Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2015/10/21

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Inequality, uprisings, and conflict in the Arab World

  • Keywords

    millennium development goal;quality of public service;oil price;comparisons of expenditure;Poverty Reduction and Equity;inequality and shared prosperity;household survey data;access to infrastructure service;oil exporter;life satisfaction;current account balance;bank deposit;Economic Inequality;per capita expenditure;standard of living;balance of payment;measure of inequality;control of corruption;global financial market;emerging market currency;interest rate hike;arab countries;impact of conflict;real estate price;evolution of inequality;total government spending;wages and salary;increasing school enrollment;cost of living;high income inequality;household expenditure data;current account deficit;Oil & Gas;Oil and Gas;lower oil price;expenditure on food;quality of job;cost of fuel;market price information;displacement of people;higher risk-aversion;privileges and immunity;expenditure per capita;absence of tax;concentration of wealth;bank deposit account;dimension of inequality;perception of corruption;number of refugees;lack of investment;system of subsidy;analysis of expenditure;sovereign wealth fund;public expenditure program;incidence conflict;diminishing marginal utility;domestic financial sector;tax haven;Civil War;oil importer;wealth concentration;external demand;external balance;commodity price;middle class;fiscal position;external position;global economy;ordinary people;wealth inequality;fiscal deficit;oil production;capital control;energy subsidies;foreign reserve;oil field;tax records;stock market;spatial inequality;trade companies;government service;global growth;stock exchange;fiscal space;Tax Evasion;fiscal balance;expenditure growth;real gdp;fiscal adjustment;terrorist attack;net worth;inequality decline;inequality pattern;foreign bank;Justice Systems;reference point;deposit offer;banking secrecy;financial center;legal arrangement;political stability;poverty headcount;income data;steady state;tax return;public pressure;consumption distribution;missing observation;urban inequality;financial wealth;public safety;redistributive policy;panel data;imperfect credit;insurance market;popular support;social contract;subsidy programs;personal life;fiscal cost;administrative datum;economic stability;domestic demand;economic recovery;traditional expenditure;household data;public wage;fiscal imbalance;multiple imputation;economic model;Maternal Mortality;foreign capital;higher growth;cheap oil;fiscal surplus;extreme poverty;internet connectivity;reducing hunger;international standard;positive impact;disposable income;global demand;fiscal account;Public Spending;Violent Conflict;fiscal pressure;commodity market;monetary measure;public debt;oil account;bond price;external financing;Fiscal Sustainability;corruption charge;parliamentary election;weather condition;fiscal spending;external account;investment need;currency depreciation;increased spending;euro zone;political uncertainty;tourist arrival;commodity exporter;wage growth;advanced economy;fiscal stance;oil sector;Emerging economies;emerging economy;global trade;import demand;capital flow;greenfield investment;short-term prospects;budget revenue;ethnic inequality;global market;downward pressure;downside risk;federal reserve;stock price;borrowing cost;equity fund;income ladder;commercial purpose;original work;copyright owner;humanitarian emergency;Public Infrastructure;regional conflict;border countries;measure of use;cross-country comparison;survey respondent;informal activity;administrative information;ancient times;Political Violence;unemployment statistic;civil unrest;social consensus;terrorist incident;extremist group;public attention;consumption expenditure;work force;nonfood expenditure;average score;

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Citation

Ianchovichina,Elena Mottaghi,Lili Devarajan,Shantayanan

Inequality, uprisings, and conflict in the Arab World (English). Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economic Monitor Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/303441467992017147/Inequality-uprisings-and-conflict-in-the-Arab-World