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Global Economic Prospects : Darkening Skies (English)

Global economic prospects have darkened. Financing conditions have tightened, industrial production has moderated, and trade tensions remain elevated. The recovery in emerging market and developing economies has stalled, and some countries have experienced significant financial stress. Downside risks have increased, including the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and escalating trade disputes. It is thus critical to rebuild policy buffers while fostering potential growth by boosting human capital, promoting trade integration, and addressing informality. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the challenges posed by informality and associated policy options. The report also contains pieces on the remarkable decline in inflation in emerging market and developing economies over the past decades, rising debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries, and the implications of large spikes in food prices for poverty. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

Details

  • Document Date

    2019/01/08

  • Document Type

    Publication

  • Report Number

    133493

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    World,

  • Region

    The World Region,

  • Disclosure Date

    2019/01/08

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Global Economic Prospects : Darkening Skies

  • Keywords

    advanced economy; constant elasticity of substitution; access to international market; Micro and Small Enterprises; information and communication technology; small and medium size enterprise; computable general equilibrium model; constant elasticity of transformation; per capita income growth; Fragility, Conflict, and Violence; decline in inflation; global food prices; Learning and Innovation Credit; current account deficit; channels of transmission; financial market development; purchasing power parity; global economic prospect; consumer price inflation; financial market volatility; monetary policy framework; global financial crisis; downside risk; consumer price index; access to finance; foreign direct investment; bilateral exchange rate; types of firms; total external debt; global growth prospects; burden of adjustment; exchange rate movement; vector autoregression model; international trading system; privileges and immunity; public sector efficiency; foreign currency reserve; international food prices; gross domestic product; error correction model; allocation of resource; linear expenditure system; private sector debt; severe weather events; global value chain; list of countries; global interest rates; commodity exporter; trade tensions; informal sector; fiscal policy; Fiscal policies; country forecast; informal firms; global trade; financial stress; human capital; income inequality; trade dispute; trade integration; informal competition; world price; aggregate growth; fiscal space; Fiscal Stimulus; equity price; forecast horizon; export orders; industrial production; policy uncertainty; labor productivity; global economy; simple average; oil price; capacity constraint; percent change; global financing; currency depreciation; borrowing cost; regression analysis; commodity price; shaded areas; trade protectionism; forecast period; regional dimension; removing barriers; geopolitical tension; stable inflation; Informal Economy; unemployment rate; fiscal outcome; policy option; global inflation; difficult environment; commodity market; government intervention; Macroeconomic Policy; contagion effect; business cycle; inflation pressures; private finance; Public Services; public revenue; government revenue; regional surveillance; poverty alleviation; investment growth; domestic price; political consensus; policy priority; finance minister; public policy; informed debate; energy price; net export; global equity; multilateral system; rising debt; informal employment; self-employment rate; debt dynamic; capital outflow; vulnerable countries; agricultural sector; metal price; high share; drought conditions; unskilled worker; soukeyna kane; tax revenue; media relation; tax burden; nominal rate; agricultural output; skill development; living standard; cyclical conditions; financial fragility; standard deviation; vertical line; trade restriction; price stability; import tariff; technological change; aggregate income; Business Climate; governance measure; comprehensive strategy; earnings inequality; long-term growth; labor legislation; potential output; Job Creation; inflation target; global disinflation; higher growth; output stability; high inflation; economic liberalization; Labor Market; monetary growth; domestic demand; future productivity; Immigration policy; commercial purpose; efficient investment; medium-sized enterprise; original work; sole responsibility; copyright owner; Public Spending; fiscal resource; fiscal deficit; external position; downward pressure; external environment; data coverage; model estimation; capita growth; external financing; external demand; industrial activity; Macroeconomic Stability; statistical appendix; increase productivity; present evidence; trade war; global slowdown; agricultural commodity; weighted average; country classification; fiscal source; average productivity; Fiscal Sustainability; regional growth; policy space; productivity gap; political uncertainty; Haver Analytics; wage gap

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Citation

Global Economic Prospects : Darkening Skies (English). Global Economic Prospects Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/307751546982400534/Global-Economic-Prospects-Darkening-Skies