This year will be the fifth consecutive year with global growth below its long-term trend of 3.5 percent observed during 2000-07, standing at last year’s 2.4 percent. This is 0.5 percent below January’s forecast. Many countries are plagued by recession, several others suffer from terrorist attacks and refugee crises, while some are mired in civil wars together with extremely uncertain commodity markets, especially oil. The result has been lower potential output and investment, and weaker global demand. In advanced economies, real growth remained uncomfortably low, almost 1 percent below the long term average from 2000 to 2007. This year appears to be one of the toughest as MENA governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest for oil exporters is managing theirfinances and diversification strategies with oil below $45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts is also creating challenges for oil importers. Real 2016 GDP growth in MENA is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013, 2.3 percent, lower than last year’s growth by 0.5 percent and about 1 percent lower than predicted in April 2016.
Details
-
Author
-
Document Date
2016/10/01
-
Document Type
Brief
-
Report Number
109328
-
Volume No
1
-
Total Volume(s)
1
-
Country
-
Region
-
Disclosure Date
2016/10/18
-
Disclosure Status
Disclosed
-
Doc Name
What can MENA governments expect in 2016?
-
Keywords
terms of trade shock;oil price;fiscal revenue;oil importer;living in poverty;restrictions on price;net oil export;barrels per day;public sector job;targeted social program;high oil price;export of goods;shortage food;cost of war;crude oil export;knowledge and learning;oil exporter;shale oil;projection period;external account;Civil War;fiscal surplus;oil revenue;Fuel Subsidies;advanced economy;fiscal space;fiscal deficit;fiscal policy;Fiscal policies;free health;price decline;negative growth;citizen voice;foreign reserve;financial inflow;tourism revenue;debt market;oil production;monetary policy;high inflation;foreign currency;egyptian pound;oil supply;Labor Market;unemployment rate;regional growth;Wage Bill;primary market;world oil;commodity price;historical pattern;oil demand;trading partner;social contract;diversification strategy;price forecast;real growth;global growth;terrorist attack;refugee crisis;commodity market;prices fall;real gdp;geopolitical risks;fiscal consolidation;cheap oil;positive growth;sovereign bond;economic efficiency;enterprise debt;postal system;trade decline;budget deficit;
- See More
Downloads
COMPLETE REPORT
Official version of document (may contain signatures, etc)
- Official PDF
- TXT*
- Total Downloads** :
- Download Stats
-
*The text version is uncorrected OCR text and is included solely to benefit users with slow connectivity.
Citation
Mottaghi,Lili
What can MENA governments expect in 2016 (English). MENA knowledge and learning quick notes series,no. 160 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/331471476797023324/What-can-MENA-governments-expect-in-2016