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What can MENA governments expect in 2016 (English)

This year will be the fifth consecutive year with global growth below its long-term trend of 3.5 percent observed during 2000-07, standing at last year’s 2.4 percent. This is 0.5 percent below January’s forecast. Many countries are plagued by recession, several others suffer from terrorist attacks and refugee crises, while some are mired in civil wars together with extremely uncertain commodity markets, especially oil. The result has been lower potential output and investment, and weaker global demand. In advanced economies, real growth remained uncomfortably low, almost 1 percent below the long term average from 2000 to 2007. This year appears to be one of the toughest as MENA governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest for oil exporters is managing theirfinances and diversification strategies with oil below $45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts is also creating challenges for oil importers. Real 2016 GDP growth in MENA is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013, 2.3 percent, lower than last year’s growth by 0.5 percent and about 1 percent lower than predicted in April 2016.




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What can MENA governments expect in 2016 (English). MENA knowledge and learning quick notes series,no. 160 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.