Under the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) baseline, Mali’s risk of external and total public debt distress remains moderate - unchanged from the previous analysis. Overall public debt dynamics remain sustainable with some space to absorb shocks. A large share of fiscal and external financing needs is expected to be covered by concessional multilateral and bilateral creditor loans. All the projected external debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline. However, applying judgment to take account of security challenges and sensitivity to small changes in financing terms, the ratio of external debt service to exports exceeds its threshold in the case of an extreme shock to exports under a customized scenario that incorporates 2 percentage points of gross domestic product (GDP) larger fiscal deficits. Mali’s main challenge continues to be ensuring macroeconomic stability while protecting social and investment spending and providing for growing security spending and large development needs especially given additional vulnerabilities arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. To maintain sustainable level of debt, it is essential that the authorities continue their efforts to mobilize domestic revenue and implement reforms. Debt management capacity should be strengthened while deepening structural reforms to diversify the exports base.
Details
-
Document Date
2020/04/01
-
Document Type
Board Report
-
Report Number
150979
-
Volume No
1
-
Total Volume(s)
1
-
Country
-
Region
-
Disclosure Date
2020/07/20
-
Disclosure Status
Disclosed
-
Doc Name
Mali - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
-
Keywords
commodity price; real gdp; grace period; financing need; export ratio; real interest rate; nominal interest rate; market financing; contingent liability; contingent liabilities; natural disaster; alternative scenarios; debt-creating flow; primary balance; total public debt; public sector debt; Public and Publicly Guaranteed; real exchange rate depreciation; primary deficit; dollar term; commodity price shock; current account deficit; exchange rate change; high ratio; debt external; short-term debt; change in arrears; Effective interest rate; total external debt; public sector borrowing; external debt sustainability; private investment rate; private sector debt; macroeconomic and fiscal; private external debt; central government debt; exchange rate projections; external debt burden; external debt service; risk of debt; public debt dynamics; external financing
See More
Downloads
COMPLETE REPORT
Official version of document (may contain signatures, etc)
- Official PDF
- TXT*
- Total Downloads** :
- Download Stats
-
*The text version is uncorrected OCR text and is included solely to benefit users with slow connectivity.
Citation
Mali - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/335761595279913708/Mali-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis