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Mali - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English)

Under the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) baseline, Mali’s risk of external and total public debt distress remains moderate - unchanged from the previous analysis. Overall public debt dynamics remain sustainable with some space to absorb shocks. A large share of fiscal and external financing needs is expected to be covered by concessional multilateral and bilateral creditor loans. All the projected external debt burden indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline. However, applying judgment to take account of security challenges and sensitivity to small changes in financing terms, the ratio of external debt service to exports exceeds its threshold in the case of an extreme shock to exports under a customized scenario that incorporates 2 percentage points of gross domestic product (GDP) larger fiscal deficits. Mali’s main challenge continues to be ensuring macroeconomic stability while protecting social and investment spending and providing for growing security spending and large development needs especially given additional vulnerabilities arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. To maintain sustainable level of debt, it is essential that the authorities continue their efforts to mobilize domestic revenue and implement reforms. Debt management capacity should be strengthened while deepening structural reforms to diversify the exports base.

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Mali - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/335761595279913708/Mali-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis