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Thailand economic monitor (Thai)

The Thai economy weathered both domestic and external shocks last year and will also do so this year. Real GDP last year grew by 6.1 percent despite higher oil prices, the Avian Influenza, and the unrest in the far South, which had adversely affected household confidence and consumption as well as foreign direct investments last year. Growth last year was partly helped by the rise in public investment after its retrenchment for 6 consecutive years. In addition, tourism revenues rebounded from the SARS scare in 2003 as reflected in the growth of exports of services, of over 10 percent last year. Some of the negative shocks such as the Southern unrest and the higher oil prices extend into this year (see Box 1 for discussion of oil price impact). In addition, the severe drought towards the end of last year and early this year would reduce agricultural production this year and could hurt farm incomes and rural consumption. The tsunami disaster in the six southern provinces late last year also has an adverse impact on tourism receipts, although to a large extent mitigated by the relief measures. With the world economy expected to slow down this year, Thailand's key export markets will also grow at slower rates. Given these negative factors, real GDP growth this year will therefore likely slow down to 5.2 percent.


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    Atsavasirilert,Wallada, Bhaopichitr,Kirida, Luangpenthong,Angkanee, Matin,Kazi Mahbub-Al, Thonggampai, Ruangrong

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    Working Paper

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    East Asia and Pacific,

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    Thailand economic monitor

  • Keywords

    agricultural production, Agriculture, Bank Loans, Bankruptcy, barrel, base year, Capacity Utilization, capital goods, Commercial Banks, Competitiveness, Consumer Price Index, consumption growth, consumption patterns, CPI, Crude Oil, Crude Oil Imports, crude oil prices, Debt, Decentralization, demand for oil, demand for petroleum, demand for petroleum products, Development Research, Diesel, diesel consumption, Economic Cooperation, economic growth, economic impact, economic situation, elasticity, elasticity of demand, Energy Policy, expenditures, Export Growth, export markets, Export Promotion, Exports, external shocks, Financial Institutions, Financial Sector, Free Trade, Fuel, Fuel Oil, gasoline, gasoline prices, GDP, Gross Domestic Product, Growth Rates, headcount ratio, high growth, Higher oil prices, Imports, incentive systems, Income, Income Groups, Industrial Economics, Inflation, infrastructure investment, Interest Rates, Investment Climate, kerosene, labor productivity, Lending Rates, long run, negative impact, net exports, Oil, Oil Import, Oil Imports, oil price impact, oil prices, output growth, Petroleum, Petroleum Consumption, petroleum gas, petroleum prices, Petroleum Product, petroleum product consumption, petroleum product prices, pipeline, policy changes, Policy Research, poverty alleviation, Poverty Line, poverty lines, poverty reduction, price ceilings, price increases, Private Consumption, Productivity, productivity growth, Public Expenditures, public infrastructure, Public Investment, Public Sector, public spending, Real GDP, refining, rural areas, Savings, Sector Reforms, Securities, skilled labor, Social Protection, terms of trade, Total Factor Productivity, total factor productivity growth, trade balance, Trade Negotiations, Trade Reforms, urban areas, world crude oil price, World Oil Price, World Trade Organization, WTO



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Atsavasirilert,Wallada Bhaopichitr,Kirida Luangpenthong,Angkanee Matin,Kazi Mahbub-Al Thonggampai, Ruangrong

Thailand economic monitor (Thai). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.