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Russia Monthly Economic Developments (English)

Globally, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases now exceeds 20 million, with more than 750,000 deaths. Despite the continuing spread of the virus, recent data suggest that global activity is slowly firming from its low base. The composite PMI returned to expansion in July, rising to 50.8, above its trough of 26.2 in April. Crude oil prices also continued to increase, rising by 7 percent in July and 30 percent in June. The recovery in the oil market has been supported by a modest recovery in demand and production restraint, particularly among OPEC countries. In July, despite a continued increase in oil prices, the ruble weakened by 3.0 percent, m/m, against the U.S. dollar. Russia’s GDP contracted less than expected, by 8.5 percent, y/y, in the second quarter of 2020. In July, headline inflation accelerated, with the consumer priсe index (CPI) rising by 3.4 percent, compared to 3.2 percent increase in June, partly due to the base effect in food inflation. On June 19th and July 24th, the CBR cut the key policy rate by 100 and 25 basis points, respectively, to a record low of 4.25 percent. Labor market dynamics deteriorated in June, with unemployment increasing to 6.4 percent, sa, up from 6.2 percent in May. In the second quarter of 2020, real disposable incomes decreased significantly, by 8 percent, y/y, compared to 1.2 percent growth, y/y, in the first quarter.

Details

  • Document Date

    2020/08/01

  • Document Type

    Working Paper

  • Report Number

    152016

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Russian Federation,

  • Region

    Europe and Central Asia,

  • Disclosure Date

    2020/08/24

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Russia Monthly Economic Developments

  • Keywords

    oil; real disposable income; labor market dynamic; federal budget; oil price; inflation; crude oil price; natural gas export; high frequency; trade balance; credit growth; gas revenue; global financial crisis; emerging market currency; loan loss provision; crude oil export; tax on interest; barrels per day; emerging market bond; return on asset; current account surplus; consumer price inflation; international tourist arrivals; local stock market; food price inflation; corporate income tax; global equity market; federal budget deficit; import of goods; reinvestment of profits; real wage growth; social policies; exchange rate; Exchange Rates; retail trade; household lending; regulatory forbearance; social policy; national economy; support measure; fiscal rule; industrial production; regional budget; high spending; retail investor; oil demand; net capital; bond market; financial flow; trading volume; capital outflow; unemployment increase; foreign asset; liquid reserve; overall debt; economic sanction; federal government; real sector; aggregate demand; unemployment rate; official statistic; fiscal revenue; fiscal policy; Fiscal policies; primary spending; macroeconomic framework; primary expenditure; Macroeconomic Policy; output decline; foreign currency; domestic demand; brokerage account; consumer loan; individual bank; bank deposit; global demand; export value; lower price; export orders; Financial Stability; net bank; corporate sector; currency index; geopolitical risks; forbearance measure; own revenues; confirmed case; Financial Sector; mortgage lending; income account; fiscal outcome; new cases; lower demand; primary surplus; aggregate capital; loan restructuring; higher expenditure; borrowing cost; small and medium enterprise; Energy; banking sector

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Citation

Russia Monthly Economic Developments (English). Russia Monthly Economic Developments Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/363471598279417777/Russia-Monthly-Economic-Developments