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Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique (English)

This paper investigates the effects of multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique, as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms at play. The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in the shocks across space, time, and cropping cycles. The findings demonstrate high levels of vulnerability across various weather risks. Experiencing a cyclone, flood, or drought leads to a drop of up to 25-30 percent in per capita food consumption and around 0.4 fewer meals per day per person. Poverty increased by 12 and 17.5 percentage points in two of the three events analyzed. Human capital accumulation, as measured by school participation and morbidity, is disrupted. Households follow risk-coping strategies, such as increasing the labor supply of their children or selling assets, which entail partial protection in the aftermath of the shock at the cost of lower income growth in the future. In disentangling the channels, the paper shows that maize prices exhibit higher volatility in food markets that are spatially close to the most affected areas. The results are robust to several robustness checks, including analysis of bias from selective migration, and indicate that household welfare and economic mobility in low-income environments are constrained by uninsured weather risks.

Details

  • Author

    Baez Ramirez,Javier Eduardo, Caruso,German Daniel, Niu,Chiyu

  • Document Date

    2018/12/06

  • Document Type

    Policy Research Working Paper

  • Report Number

    WPS8667

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    Mozambique,

  • Region

    Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2018/12/06

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique

  • Keywords

    flood; drought; natural disaster; weather shock; household consumption per capita; food consumption per capita; average number of meal; primary school age child; supply of education service; per capita food consumption; school participation of children; school attendance; parameter of interest; per capita consumption; effects of weather; remote sensing data; standard deviation; burden of disease; increase in consumption; per capita term; household and individual; impact of disaster; affected households; crop cycle; extreme weather; national household survey; early warning system; lack of rainfall; state of emergency; food price variability; supply of labor; reproduction of inequality; reduction in consumption; consumption smoothing mechanism; source of income; source income; extreme weather event; risk sharing mechanisms; children from households; place of residence; damage to crops; effect on consumption; food price volatility; principal component analysis; ownership of asset; risk management strategy; vector borne disease; curative health services; school attendance rate; regular school attendance; level of consumption; household fixed effect; protection can; daily food consumption; household food consumption; effects of exposure; average wind speed; provision of education; poverty status; household welfare; negative effect; maize price; point estimate; labor supply; children of ages; household head; empirical relationship; coping strategy; household affect; migrant household; morbidity rate; child morbidity; income growth; standard error; food market; robustness check; heavy rain; risk coping

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Citation

Baez Ramirez,Javier Eduardo Caruso,German Daniel Niu,Chiyu

Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk : Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique (English). Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 8667 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/391551544130265485/Extreme-Weather-and-Poverty-Risk-Evidence-from-Multiple-Shocks-in-Mozambique