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Economic and social inclusion to prevent violent extremism (English)

This year appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region as governments are facing major policy challenges. Growth is expected to slow down to an average of 2.3 percent this year, half a percentage point lower than last year. Low oil prices have dampened growth among the oil exporters, especially the GCC countries, which are forecast to grow at only 1.6 percent in 2016. Four of the developing oil exporters—Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya—are mired in civil war or violent conflict. MENA’s oil importers, who would normally benefit from low oil prices, are also growing slowly (2.6 percent on average) because of spillovers from wars in neighboring countries or the effects of terrorist attacks on tourism and investor confidence. Recognizing that the rise of violent extremism has contributed to the region’s poor economic performance, the report looks at the underlying determinants of this phenomenon.


  • Author

    Devarajan,Shantayanan, Mottaghi,Lili, Do,Quy-Toan, Brockmeyer,Anne, Joubert,Clement Jean Edouard, Bhatia,Kartika, Abdel Jelil,Mohamed, Shaban,Radwan Ali, Chaal-Dabi,Isabelle, Lenoble,Nathalie

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  • Document Type

    Working Paper

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  • Total Volume(s)


  • Country

    Middle East and North Africa,

  • Region

    Middle East and North Africa,

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  • Doc Name

    Economic and social inclusion to prevent violent extremism

  • Keywords

    council on foreign relation;country of residence;energy information administration;economic and social policy;terms of trade shock;Civil War;oil price;oil exporter;net oil export;sense of mission;cost of war;crude oil export;house of representative;oil price forecast;shortage food;multivariate regression analysis;high opportunity cost;act of violence;regional economic growth;export of goods;poverty and conflict;measure of fractionalization;oil price decline;barrels per day;emerging market economy;privileges and immunity;projection period;terrorist organization;terrorist group;unemployment rate;oil importer;fiscal revenue;terrorist attack;intrinsic motivation;social inclusion;external account;suicide attack;foreign workforce;refugee crisis;export revenue;Job Creation;global economy;potential output;advanced economy;arab countries;political right;oil revenue;fiscal surplus;opinion survey;fiscal deficit;shale oil;social contract;political objective;oil output;fiscal space;Political Economy;financial crisis;subsequent years;combat terrorism;paper trail;economic hardship;resource abundance;Fiscal policies;fiscal policy;geopolitical risks;financial pressure;terrorist financing;enterprise debt;middle class;local conflict;positive growth;negative growth;opinion data;agricultural sector;public discourse;agriculture sector;political motive;population size;cost-benefit analysis;foreign currency;egyptian pound;violent activity;illegal activities;income inequality;budget deficit;fiscal balance;missing data;religious diversity;explanatory power;young people;Social Sciences;political freedom;breakeven price;commodity market;spot price;weak demand;syrian pound;primary market;real growth;future price;commodity price;oil demand;oil trading;representative sample;external imbalance;regional growth;diversification strategy;fiscal consolidation;developmental impact;real gdp;austerity measures;cheap oil;ongoing conflicts;Labor Market;multiple sources;Fuel Subsidies;Wage Bill;postal system;refugee agency;historical pattern;global growth;average age;freedom fighter;high school;public radio;general population;commercial purpose;political motivation;young recruits;sovereign bond;debt market;small sample;schooling attainment;foreign reserve;Natural Resources;family ties;monetary compensation;geographic variable;large population;ceteris paribus;copyright owner;remote sensing;natural extension;original work;economic exclusion;business model;Violent Conflict;opinion poll;extreme violence;remittance inflow;cross-country comparison;suicide bombing;individual characteristic;remittance outflow;quantitative analysis;financial inflow;tourism revenue;basic value;macroeconomic level;counterfeit good;external incentive;financial regulation;marital status;education status;extremist group;firm performance;home country;high inflation;supply side;empirical study;monetary policy;religious teaching;home countries;macro indicators;empirical literature;extrinsic incentive;inflation rate;



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Devarajan,Shantayanan Mottaghi,Lili Do,Quy-Toan Brockmeyer,Anne Joubert,Clement Jean Edouard Bhatia,Kartika Abdel Jelil,Mohamed Shaban,Radwan Ali Chaal-Dabi,Isabelle Lenoble,Nathalie

Economic and social inclusion to prevent violent extremism (English). Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economic Monitor Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.