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ECOWAS economic partnership agreement with the EU and Nigerian trade and development (English)

This paper offers a simple way to assess the impact on the economy of Nigeria of an economic partnership agreement (EPA) between the ECOWAS countries and the European Union (EU) , based on the market access offer contained in the negotiation proposals in early 2014 with the following key elements: liberalization, to the benefit of the EU, of West African market access for 75 percent of tariff lines over a period of 20 years; three categories of products subject to gradual liberalization, in four stages of five years each, starting on December 31, 2019 for the first category being liberalized and finishing in 2035 for the third category. The fourth category of products, representing one quarter of all tariff lines, is not subject to liberalization; and possibility of recourse to trade defense measures, including bilateral safeguard measures (article 22) and an infant industry clause (article 23). The analysis presented in this paper is based on a new methodology that combines the advantages of a partial equilibrium modeling framework with the wealth of firm level information contained in a World Bank enterprise survey for Nigeria. The intention is to add value to the policy debate around the EPA by generating results that are intuitive and transparent to a non-technical audience, and that rely on a limited number of simple assumptions, while adding precision and detail to the expected impact on the domestic economy.


  • Author

    von Uexkull, Erik Jan Njinkeu, Dominique Maur, Jean-Christophe Coste, Antoine Shui, Lulu

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    Working Paper

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  • Region

    Europe and Central Asia, Africa,

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  • Doc Name

    ECOWAS economic partnership agreement with the EU and Nigerian trade and development

  • Keywords

    small and medium size enterprise;impact on tariff;efficiency of public spending;high levels of protection;general equilibrium trade model;trade shock;price change;firm level;trade policy reform;partial equilibrium model;reallocation of resource;International Trade;share of import;price of imports;general equilibrium model;effect of trade;real exchange rate;political economy implication;trade facilitation measures;change in consumption;source of revenue;value added tax;exchange rate channel;annual productivity growth;firm level analysis;nonmetallic mineral products;statutory tariff rates;weighted average price;prices of input;exogenous productivity growth;level of employment;free trade commitments;common external tariff;change in prices;country of origin;global value chain;cost of transportation;competitiveness and jobs;share of export;ad valorem equivalent;gains and losses;trade policy instrument;complete trade liberalization;capital good;tariff revenue;market access;output price;fiscal revenue;tariff line;trading partner;dynamic effect;Trade Policies;baseline scenario;domestic price;tariff reform;production technology;policy scenario;export data;domestic industry;metal product;policy option;dynamic adjustment;basic metal;import ban;macroeconomic repercussions;negative effect;tariff protection;import data;capital price;net effect;trade datum;reform scenario;import transaction;tariff cut;increased competition;exporting firms;tariff change;trade share;competitiveness agenda;static effect;price shock;price difference;output level;customs datum;literature review;input price;competitive market;tariff reduction;customs authority;tariff data;simple average;tax revenue;relative change;profit margin;fiscal loss;tariff exemption;average consumption;agricultural product;household income;trade diversion;summary statistic;power outage;domestic production;government revenue;world price;product level;market opening;trade flow;import demand;electricity outages;trade literature;market opportunity;labor ratio;average profitability;price reduction;Labor Market;preferential margin;empirical evidence;average productivity;direct transport;competitiveness policy;competitive gains;free market;international market;Fiscal Sustainability;oil product;concrete product;leather products;trade effect;economic sector;tariff barrier;productivity increase;productivity level;social consequence;relative magnitude;job generation;cross-country differences;regional market;plant level;internal migration;imported inputs;production process;free access;profit maximizing;production level;relative price;productive resource;export competitiveness;consumption basket;high duties;transport service;sample bias;tariff structure;total output;transport cost;affected industries;domestic tax;public expenditure;consumer demand;demand response;public debate;imperfect substitution;cost structure;previous work;exemption policy;labor use;intermediate input;safeguard measure;implicit assumption;domestic economy;upper bind;public domain;analytical methodology;hypothetical scenario;dynamic change;tobacco product;capital use;business tax;input use;net impact;mitigation effect;substitution effect;Impact assessments;supply elasticity;fiscal data;consumer good;import supplier;individual products;estimated elasticity;demand elasticity;customs procedure;window frame;cross-sectoral difference;import value;protection level;product category;household consumption;tax instrument;comparative static;policy question;customs regime;federal structure;transparent model;import tax;infant industry;statutory rates;tax from october;consumer goods;daily consumption;income loss;household level;agricultural producer;anecdotal evidence;consumption bundle;destination market;consumption pattern;simulation result;project impact;dairy product;equipment price;export market;research assistance;tax collection;income household;subsequent phase;household benefit;income category;vegetable product;



Official version of document (may contain signatures, etc)


von Uexkull, Erik Jan Njinkeu, Dominique Maur, Jean-Christophe Coste, Antoine Shui, Lulu

ECOWAS economic partnership agreement with the EU and Nigerian trade and development (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.