Skip to Main Navigation

How do ex ante simulations compare with ex post evaluations evidence from the impact of conditional cash transfer programs (English)

This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.


  • Author

    Pereira Guimaraes Leite,Phillippe George, Narayan,Ambar, Skoufias,Emmanuel

  • Document Date


  • Document Type

    Policy Research Working Paper

  • Report Number


  • Volume No


  • Total Volume(s)


  • Country



  • Region

    Latin America & Caribbean, The World Region,

  • Disclosure Date


  • Disclosure Status


  • Doc Name

    How do ex ante simulations compare with ex post evaluations ? evidence from the impact of conditional cash transfer programs

  • Keywords

    ex post evaluation;conditional cash transfer program;representative household survey data;baseline survey;children of ages;ex ante estimates;high dropout rate;Poverty & Inequality;impact on child;school enrollment rate;occupational category;demand for school;health care centers;labor market program;full time employment;school attendance rate;children attending schools;estimation of parameter;estimates of income;income transfer program;primary school age;human capital model;model of school;human capital accumulation;parameter of interest;number of researchers;health and nutrition;estimation of equation;labor market outcome;cohorts of child;child in school;secondary school attendance;safety net program;partial equilibrium model;labor market behavior;higher education level;propensity score matching;impact of transfer;secondary school student;labor market model;primary school student;growth and development;increase in enrolment;household income;monetary transfer;occupational choice;standard deviation;baseline data;treatment group;choice model;social program;program impact;standard error;behavioral model;predictive power;household sample;transfer amount;secondary level;poor household;program effect;residual term;alternative program;experimental design;income variable;child working;parameter estimate;marginal effect;treatment effect;program administrator;income gain;panel data;utility function;data requirement;occupational status;housing condition;positive impact;enrollment increase;bootstrap method;current income;unconditional transfers;hypothetical case;household characteristic;selection bias;domestic work;model specification;demographic characteristic;basic healthcare;gender group;child earnings;labor participation;eligible child;beneficiary household;educational level;exclusion error;census data;poverty index;poor child;educational grant;simulation model;confidence interval;hypothetical scenario;outcome indicator;private bank;average household;Durable goods;test score;educated parent;nutritional supplement;dependency ratio;descriptive statistic;school enrolment;collected information;sample household;sample selection;total sample;household expenditure;transfer account;behavioral norm;transfer resource;poverty trap;individual characteristic;random variable;cost-benefit analysis;alternative scenarios;school decision;occupational decision;earnings equation;normal distribution;eligible beneficiary;health facility;maximum likelihood;unemployed individual;lifetime income;income supplement;unemployment benefit;household behavior;regular job;work experience;school choice;standard economic;estimate impact;inclusion error;random selection;evaluation result;enrolment rate;income effect;program beneficiary;household model;young age;old age;data sample;household head;landless household;rural village;child schooling;research assistance;development policy;open access;experimental study;poverty alleviation;exclusive reliance;quasiexperimental method;statistical technique;program evaluation;higher grade;age-gender category;old children;opportunity cost;child labor;0 hypothesis;labor supply;permanent income;health indicator;



Official version of document (may contain signatures, etc)

  • Official PDF
  • TXT*
  • Total Downloads** :
  • Download Stats
  • *The text version is uncorrected OCR text and is included solely to benefit users with slow connectivity.


Pereira Guimaraes Leite,Phillippe George Narayan,Ambar Skoufias,Emmanuel

How do ex ante simulations compare with ex post evaluations evidence from the impact of conditional cash transfer programs (English). Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5705 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.