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South Sudan Economic Update : Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 (English)

The South Sudan economy had recorded a strong growth pickup before the COVID-19 pandemic, with real GDP growth estimated at 9.3 percent in FY2019/20 but a contraction of -3.4 percent is projected in FY2020/21. Oil production was estimated at 62.1 million barrels in FY2019/20, representing a 26.5 percent increase from 49.1 million barrels realized in FY2018/19. However, oil production is expected to decline to 58.4 million barrels in FY20/21, as COVID-19 restrictions impacted movement of machinery and OPEC+ production cuts affected production. With COVID-19 restrictions delaying new investment, activity in the oil sector is not expected to improve until FY2022/23 when oil production is projected to rise to 60.2 million barrels. At the same time, the country has experienced concurrent shocks with floods, locust infestation, and higher subnational conflict intensity contributing to a dire economic outlook. Consequently, the economy is projected to contract by -3.4 percent in FY2020/21, driven by subdued economic activity in both oil and non-oil sectors. Beyond FY2020/21, recovery is projected on the assumption of a rebound in the global economy (that will support higher oil prices, investment, and remittances), commitment to a credible reform process, sustainability of peace, and resilience to climatic shocks.

Details

  • Author

    Mawejje,Joseph, Fatima,Freeha, Von Der Goltz,Jan, Finn,Arden Jeremy, Nichanametla Ramasubbaiah,Rakesh Gupta

  • Document Date

    2020/12/01

  • Document Type

    Report

  • Report Number

    157240

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Country

    South Sudan,

  • Region

    Africa East, Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2022/02/16

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    South Sudan Economic Update : Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19

  • Keywords

    Gender-Based Violence; socioeconomic impact; Armed Conflict; famine early warning system; million barrels of oil; market trader; public financial management reform; oil production; Infection Prevention and Control; know how; infrastructure and service delivery; real gross domestic product; Public Finance Management; access to foreign exchange; million people; oil price; oil sector; social distance; high oil price; access to health; crude oil price; foreign direct investment; development partner; health facility; civil service salary; low oil price; major trading partners; back into poverty; movement of cargo; crude oil reserve; market exchange rate; central government revenue; price of oil; increase in inflation; exchange rate depreciation; point of entry; foreign exchange rate; flow of good; impact on price; per capita income; lower oil price; oil exploration blocks; foreign exchange reform; service delivery institution; allocation of resource; global financial crisis; fruit and vegetable; access to fund; oil sector development; commodity price data; rate of hire; put pressure; loss of revenue; decline in revenue; loss of consumer; weighted average price; sanitation and hygiene; place of residence; financial sector development; state of emergency; demand for good; distribution of rainfall; signs of recovery; purchasing power parity; places of business; lack of demand; regional trading partners; number of workers; border post; demand for oil; global recession; inadequate provision; supply chain; economic crisis; confirmed case; essential supplies; consumer demand

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Citation

Mawejje,Joseph Fatima,Freeha Von Der Goltz,Jan Finn,Arden Jeremy Nichanametla Ramasubbaiah,Rakesh Gupta

South Sudan Economic Update : Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/440961614950205838/South-Sudan-Economic-Update-Socioeconomic-Impacts-of-COVID-19