Since 2014, the armed conflict in Ukraine’s eastern provinces (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk has dealt a heavy blow to people’s lives. The conflict has magnified the long-standing problems and created new ones. This study shows that scaling up efforts in the government-controlled areas (GCAs) of Donbas is desirable despite the subdued productivity in the region. This study recommends a decision tree approach to programming recovery in Donbas. Given the looming uncertainties and scenario-sensitivity of optimal policies, the recovery strategy should distinguish contingent policies from no-regret policies. Contingent policies change between the status quo and the reintegration scenarios, and they include interventions to mitigate conflict-related risks, risk-related transfers to address skill-shortages in GCAs, and investments for a contingent infrastructure strategy. By comparison, no-regret policies are desirable regardless of the conflict dynamics. They include the reforms to eliminate regulatory burdens and corruption; policies to open up the housing market; investments to modernize education for jobs and target low-hanging fruits in infrastructure; and efforts to produce better data to address knowledge gaps.
Details
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Author
Onder,Harun, Mitov,Lubomir A., Kupets,Olga, Artuc,Erhan, Gomez Parra,Nicolas, Benner,Holly Welborn, Jennings,Ray Salvatore, Shatyrko,Oleksandra, Kolybashkina,Nina, Demetriou,Spyridon, Piffaretti,Nadia Fernanda, Kosmidou,Georgia Christina, Grossman,Allison Namias, Mihailov,Emil Georgiev, Gresham,James, Yayla,Gulcan, Kolev,Ivaylo Hristov, Zapatrina,Irina, Glazkov,Dmytro, Bertholet,Fabrice Karl, Ryabtsev,Volodymyr, Polyak,Ilya, Bulakh,Yevhen
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Document Date
2021/06/25
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Document Type
Report
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Report Number
160995
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Volume No
1
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Total Volume(s)
2
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Country
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Region
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Disclosure Date
2021/06/25
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Doc Name
The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine
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Keywords
government-controlled areas; Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions; water supply and sanitation; capacity-building need; Fragility, Conflict, and Violence; High Commissioner for Refugees; quality of public service; Internally Displaced Person; thermal power plant; demand for coal; implicit energy subsidy; change in population; round of consultations; impact of policy; million people; Rule of Law; share of employment; place of origin; old-age dependency ratio; high unemployment rate; trade and investment; labor market condition; Oil & Gas; Oil and Gas; public service provision; total factor productivity; water supply service; high crime rate; share of output; labor force survey; increase in risk; return on investment; special economic zone; lower birth rates; trade and services; gross migration flow; access to finance; average monthly wage; world war ii; Country Program Coordinator; demand for credit; real interest rate; producer of coal; allocation of labor; center of gravity; water distribution system; public service delivery; quality of water; simulation model; productivity gap; Public Services; economic recovery; cut off; unemployed people; Armed Conflict; decision tree; trade partner; promoting growth; Vocational Education; senior operations; productivity index; recent years; younger generation; energy expert; pig iron; regulatory burden; commodity price; unexploded ordnance; civil society; import substitution; input cost; external demand; social cohesion; coordination problem; increase productivity; policy scenario; implicit subsidy; industrial base; program leader
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Citation
Onder,Harun Mitov,Lubomir A. Kupets,Olga Artuc,Erhan Gomez Parra,Nicolas Benner,Holly Welborn Jennings,Ray Salvatore Shatyrko,Oleksandra Kolybashkina,Nina Demetriou,Spyridon Piffaretti,Nadia Fernanda Kosmidou,Georgia Christina Grossman,Allison Namias Mihailov,Emil Georgiev Gresham,James Yayla,Gulcan Kolev,Ivaylo Hristov Zapatrina,Irina Glazkov,Dmytro Bertholet,Fabrice Karl Ryabtsev,Volodymyr Polyak,Ilya Bulakh,Yevhen
The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/456551624599304372/The-Economics-of-Winning-Hearts-and-Minds-Programming-Recovery-in-Eastern-Ukraine