The joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2019 Article IV Consultation, for the first time based on the revised framework for low-income countries. Results indicate moderate risk of debt distress for both external and overall public debt. However, the debt outlook remains vulnerable, especially to a deceleration in real GDP and exports growth and the depreciation of the KGS. To address these vulnerabilities, the authorities need to remain cautious when contracting and guaranteeing new debt, maintain fiscal discipline, improve public investment management, and continue improving the business environment to maintain the export potential of the country after the main gold mine will close in 2026.
Details
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Document Date
2019/07/01
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Document Type
Working Paper
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Report Number
142482
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Volume No
1
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Total Volume(s)
1
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Country
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Region
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Disclosure Date
2019/10/09
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Disclosure Status
Disclosed
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Doc Name
Kyrgyz Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis : July 2019
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Keywords
public debt; real gdp; debt service; contingent liability; contingent liabilities; public sector debt; debt-creating flow; Public and Publicly Guaranteed; primary deficit; primary balance; nominal interest rate; risk of debt; real exchange rate depreciation; domestic debt; nominal depreciation; commodity price; natural disaster; total public debt; current account deficit; real interest rate; debt relief; grace period; total external debt; financing need; export ratio; dollar term; debt dynamic; external debt service; social security fund; private external debt; external debt burden; exchange rate change; public investment management; risk of distress; state-owned enterprise; debt sustainability framework
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Citation
Kyrgyz Republic - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis : July 2019 (English). Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/492841570637910932/Kyrgyz-Republic-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-July-2019