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Capital - importing oil exporters : adjustment issues and policy choices (English)

The main unifying feature of the capital-importing oil exporters is the need to utilize petroleum export revenues--available over the next 10 to 20 years to representative members--to effect transitions to sustainable growth trajectories with acceptable distributional characteristics. A second common feature is the nature of the short- to medium-run difficulties of economic management occasioned by oil windfalls. These themes viewed in the aftermath of the first oil shock, and with an eye towards the second, form the subject of this paper. Using a simple two-sector model involving traded and nontraded goods as a conceptual framework, the paper compares the evolution of critical macro and sectoral variables for a number of oil economies after 1974. Similarities and differences in observed government behavior are discussed, as are their consequences for the respective nonoil economies.

Details

  • Author

    Gelb, Alan

  • Document Date

    1981/08/31

  • Document Type

    Staff Working Paper

  • Report Number

    SWP475

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Disclosure Date

    2010/07/01

  • Doc Name

    Capital - importing oil exporters : adjustment issues and policy choices

  • Keywords

    oil exporter;gdp growth rate;real appreciation;oil shock;real exchange rate;relative price;private investment;oil producer;fixed nominal exchange rate;income elasticity of demand;sectoral composition of output;external terms of trade;composition of public spending;Incremental Capital-Output Ratio;oil price;capital spending;oil economy;capital good;oil revenue;nontraded good;Manufacturing;Petroleum;public sector spending;public sector saving;traded sector;domestic demand;Agriculture;errors and omission;total export revenue;total factor productivity;internationally competitive level;capital goods industry;economies of scale;oil export revenue;real interest rate;labor market segmentation;shares of oil;pattern of development;cost of living;exports of oil;educational social service;lack of investment;urban informal sector;official minimum wage;crude oil price;public sector investment;real import growth;domestic resource mobilization;effective exchange rate;public sector budget;domestic revenue collection;share of investment;public sector deficit;central government revenue;categories of expenditure;fundamental structural changes;public sector agency;public sector revenue;gross domestic product;Foreign Exchange Reserve;component of investment;domestic capacity constraint;domestic capital formation;inflow of capital;capital goods exports;rate of investment;natural gas reserves;saving rate;

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Citation

Gelb, Alan

Capital - importing oil exporters : adjustment issues and policy choices (English). Staff working paper ; no. SWP 475 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/502461468764975958/Capital-importing-oil-exporters-adjustment-issues-and-policy-choices