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The impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish labor market : The impact of Syrians refugees on the Turkish labor market (English)

Currently 2.5 million Syrians fleeing war have found refuge in Turkey, making it the largest refugee-hosting country worldwide. This paper combines newly available data on the distribution of Syrian refugees across Turkey and the Turkish Labour Force Survey to assess their labor market impact. Syrian refugees are overwhelmingly employed informally, since they were not issued work permits, making their arrival a well-defined supply shock to informal labor. Consistent with economic theory our instrumental variable estimates, which also control for distance from the Turkish-Syrian border, suggest large-scale displacement of natives in the informal sector. At the same time, consistent with occupational upgrading, there are increases in formal employment for the Turkish - though only for men without completed high school education. Women and the high-skilled are not in a good position to take advantage of lower cost informal labor. The low educated and women experience net displacement from the labor market and, together with those in the informal sector, declining earning opportunities.


  • Author

    Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa, Wagner,Mathis Christoph

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  • Document Type

    Policy Research Working Paper

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  • Country

    Syrian Arab Republic,


  • Region

    Middle East and North Africa, Europe and Central Asia,

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  • Doc Name

    The impact of Syrians refugees on the Turkish labor market

  • Keywords

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Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa Wagner,Mathis Christoph

The impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish labor market : The impact of Syrians refugees on the Turkish labor market (English). Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 7402 Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group