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Scarred but Wiser : World War 2's COVID Legacy (English)

The paper formalizes and tests the hypothesis that greater exposure to big shocks induces stronger societal responses for adaptation and protection from future big shocks. Support for this hypothesis is found in various strands of the literature and in new empirical tests using cross-country data on deaths due to COVID-19 and deaths during World War 2. Countries with higher death rates in the war saw lower death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. The tests are robust to a wide range of model specifications and alternative assumptions.


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    Lokshin,Michael M., Kolchin,Vladimir, Ravallion,Martin

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    Policy Research Working Paper

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    The World Region,

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    Scarred but Wiser : World War 2's COVID Legacy

  • Keywords

    time-series analysis; population post; average level of education; methods of data analysis; deaths per million; secondary school enrollment; million people; low death rate; high death rate; War; former soviet union; spread of infection; health care system; absence of violence; Rule of Law; control of corruption; public health policy; local collective action; risk of death; effects of exposure; list of countries; social capital; model specification; social distance; Cardiovascular Disease; Population Density; standard error; total deaths; Death rates; Civil War; several countries; descriptive statistic; community group; civilian casualty; asian flu; government effectiveness; infection rate; voluntary compliance; world leaders; covariate shock; nonlinear relationship; linear regression; personal freedom; functional form; measurement error; military activity; communist party; historic information; death toll; economic crisis; global health; seasonal flu; adverse shock; flu pandemic; excess death; positive correlation; political capital; in institution; demographic composition; individual level; civic participation; public good; affected communities; social behavior; political trust; high probability; military casualty; representative sample; multiple sources; personal responsibility; societal responses; welfare function; survey data; richer countries; empirical investigation; increasing return; personal mobility; welfare impact; teacher quality; mean point; large population; negative correlation; theoretical model; high share; educated people; social bond; market development; open university; development policy; regression diagnostics; international study; open access; Violent Conflict; high trust; public economics; social participation; politically active; civil conflict; measuring governance; planned economy; pearl harbor; economic study; Economic Studies; Research Support; political preference; income inequality; policy work; cultural change; political participation; regression coefficient; negative externality; containment policy; cardiovascular deaths; elderly population; global coverage; scatter plot; Social Protection; emotional distress; evolutionary perspective; regulatory quality; political stability; basic amenity; random selection; behavioral response; childhood exposure; seasonal influenza; survival probability; influenza pandemic; empirical findings; war casualty; social fabric; behavioral effect



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Lokshin,Michael M. Kolchin,Vladimir Ravallion,Martin

Scarred but Wiser : World War 2's COVID Legacy (English). Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 9481,COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.