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Sustaining the recovery and looking beyond : Executive summary (Arabic)

This edtion of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economic developments and prospects reports examines the major factors threatening the recovery and those that obstruct long-term growth, especially non-oil export growth. The report focuses on non-oil export growth as despite some progress in the past decade net exports contributed little to regional growth, and nonoil exports of goods and services remain below potential for the region as a whole. Economic activity has rebounded in most countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Growth is expected to average 4 percent in 2010 and to reach 4.8 percent in 2011 and 2012. The recovery has been driven by the global economic rebound and, to varying degrees, by domestic stimulus. Industrial production, which in MENA is dominated by oil, has nearly reached its pre-crisis peak, largely due to the strong recovery in emerging markets, especially Asia. However, the upturn weakened in the summer of 2010 as global growth slowed down, and serious concerns emerged about the sustainability of the global recovery. In response, many MENA governments have continued to stimulate their economies in 2010, and even those that did not use any type of fiscal stimulus in 2009 have started implementing fiscal measures in 2010. MENA's economic recovery has not been spectacular. With the exception of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies, the region was affected much less than other regions by the global financial and economic crisis. Lack of integration and a large public sector helped soften the impact of the crisis, but now these and other factors are limiting the pace of expansion on the upside, though these factors are present to a different extent in the three major MENA groups of countries, the GCC oil exporters, the developing oil exporters and the oil importers. Part one of the report examines the short-term growth prospects of the MENA countries and the risks to the outlook. Part two discusses long-term development obstacles, particularly those related to non-oil export growth.

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Details

  • Author

    Ianchovichina, Elena

  • Document Date

    2011/01/01

  • Document Type

    Economic Updates and Modeling

  • Report Number

    59960

  • Volume No

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    2

  • Country

    Middle East and North Africa,

  • Region

    Middle East and North Africa,

  • Disclosure Date

    2011/03/04

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Doc Name

    Executive summary

  • Keywords

    accounting, advanced economies, Agricultural bank, antidumping duties, assets, balance of payments, bank deposits, banking sector, banking system, bill, bond, bond markets, bond spreads, bonds, capital flows, capital goods, CDS, central bank, central banks, commodity prices, competitiveness, consumer goods, consumer price Index, corporate bond, corporate debt, corporate debt markets, corporate default, credit default, credit default swaps, Credit growth, credit information, credit information systems, credit record, credit spreads, current account, current Account balance, current account positions, Current account surpluses, customs duties, debt, debt relief, debt restructuring, deceleration in growth, default rates, deficits, deposits, depreciation, developing countries, distortions, domestic demand, domestic markets, domestic saving, durable, dutch disease, economic crisis, Economic development, Economic Developments, economic growth, economic slowdown, emerging economies, emerging markets, equity markets, Euro Zone, expenditure, expenditure increases, expenditures, export diversification, Export growth, export market, export markets, Export revenue, Exporters, Exposure, external demand, financial crisis, financial infrastructure, Financial Market, financial markets, financial stability, Financial support, financial system, Fiscal balance, fiscal policies, Fiscal policy, food price, foreign direct investment, foreign investment, foreign investments, Foreign Markets, foreign reserves, Free Trade Agreement, free trade agreements, Free Trade Area, global demand, global Economy, global markets, global trade, governance issues, government bonds, Government debt, government guarantees, government spending, government support, gross domestic product, growth performance, growth rates, imbalances, Import, import demand, Import growth, import tariffs, imports, income taxes, indebted countries, inflationary pressures, information technologies, infrastructure investments, initial public offerings, Intellectual property, interest rate, Interest rates, International Bank, International reserves, International Trade, inventories, inventory, investment expenditure, investment fund, labor force, labor market, labor Markets, letters of credit, liquidity, liquidity constraints, liquidity support, loan, macroeconomic management, macroeconomic policies, macroeconomic uncertainty, macroeconomic volatility, Market Access, market development, market penetration, market segments, Monetary Fund, Monetary Union, mortgages, natural resources, negative shocks, oil export, oil Exporters, oil exporting countries, oil Exports, Oil Importer, oil importers, oil markets, oil price, oil prices, oil revenue, oil revenues, pension, political instability, portfolios, post-crisis period, poverty reduction, price hike, price increase, price increases, price volatility, private consumption, private financing, private investment, public finances, public Investment, public saving, public spending, recession, regional growth, regulatory reform, remittance, remittances, repayment, reserve, reserve requirements, reserves, return, risk aversion, risk premiums, savings banks, slowdown, sovereign default, spare capacity, spot price, standard deviations, Stock market, Stock Market Indices, stock markets, strong demand, structural reforms, sukuk, tariff barrier, Tax, tax code, tax exemptions, Tax incentives, tax increases, telecommunications, total exports, trade facilitation, trade liberalization, trade policies, trade restrictiveness, trade shock, trade volatility, Trading, transparency, treasuries, unanticipated shocks, uncertainties, unemployment rate, unemployment rates, wealth creation, working capital, world development Indicators, world economy, world Trade

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Citation

Ianchovichina, Elena

Sustaining the recovery and looking beyond : Executive summary (Arabic). MENA economic developments and prospects reports Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/523621468052156866/Executive-summary